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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

Old 20th Jul 2021, 23:26
  #981 (permalink)  
 
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China must surely have taken fresh heart from the example set by Russia in the Crimea.
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Old 21st Jul 2021, 00:37
  #982 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix View Post
China must surely have taken fresh heart from the example set by Russia in the Crimea.
China and Taiwan both agree that they are part of China, as also the US from back when Kissinger reopened US/PRC relations.
The situation has evolved in the past 50 years, but afaik, Taiwan still views itself as the legitimate Chinese government.
That complicates the legalities for any US intervention if Taiwan and Beijing get into a conflict.
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Old 21st Jul 2021, 04:47
  #983 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by etudiant View Post
China and Taiwan both agree that they are part of China, as also the US from back when Kissinger reopened US/PRC relations.
The situation has evolved in the past 50 years, but afaik, Taiwan still views itself as the legitimate Chinese government.
That complicates the legalities for any US intervention if Taiwan and Beijing get into a conflict.
'China and Taiwan both agree that they are part of China..'

No they don't.

The KMT thinks it is part of China IF China is under the authority of the KMT. The KMT is pretty much a spent force now as the DPP more Pro-independence is in the ascendency. And more young people are pro Taiwan not pro-China. Plus since any realpolitik of the 1970's China may have developed economically it has not with regard to Human Rights & Democracy. Whereas Taiwan is a full democracy and progressive and open (it was not in the 1970's and martial law didn't end until 1987). Thus the One China Policy existed because of conditions in the early 70's which do not remotely reflect the situation in 2021.
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Old 21st Jul 2021, 21:18
  #984 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Load Toad View Post
'China and Taiwan both agree that they are part of China..'

No they don't.

The KMT thinks it is part of China IF China is under the authority of the KMT. The KMT is pretty much a spent force now as the DPP more Pro-independence is in the ascendency. And more young people are pro Taiwan not pro-China. Plus since any realpolitik of the 1970's China may have developed economically it has not with regard to Human Rights & Democracy. Whereas Taiwan is a full democracy and progressive and open (it was not in the 1970's and martial law didn't end until 1987). Thus the One China Policy existed because of conditions in the early 70's which do not remotely reflect the situation in 2021.
Sure sounds like the pre WW1 Balkans.
The laws and treaties said one thing, reality on the ground was another. Unhappy results ensued.
Could be really ugly this time.
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Old 21st Jul 2021, 22:42
  #985 (permalink)  
 
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Like when Africa and the Middle East got divided up by the European powers you mean?
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Old 22nd Jul 2021, 00:20
  #986 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SASless View Post
Like when Africa and the Middle East got divided up by the European powers you mean?
Similar but worse.
There was no direct clash between the powers in Africa or the Middle East, but the Balkans had Russia and Austria/Hungary as immediate guarantors.
Taiwan has the China at its doorstep and the US in its living room. No proxies at all.
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Old 22nd Jul 2021, 08:06
  #987 (permalink)  
 
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You are right - the situation is pretty clear - both sides claim to be part of "China" and both sides see the others as theones who should bend..... but one is very much bigger than the other.

No inbuilt stability in the situation
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Old 25th Jul 2021, 20:29
  #988 (permalink)  
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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/m...ific-tq99hl7l9

Macron promises closer ties with Japan to oppose Chinese expansion in the Pacific

President Macron has pledged to bolster France’s security ties with Japan as western allies pivot to the Pacific to try to counter Chinese expansionism.

Macron arrived in Tahiti yesterday for his first official visit to France’s Pacific territories, where he is expected to lay out a strategy to oppose Beijing’s rising incursions and influence.

He had earlier met Yoshihide Suga, Japan’s prime minister, in Tokyo after which they issued a joint statement committing to work closer on defence for a “free Pacific”. They expressed “serious concerns” about Beijing’s crackdown on rights in Hong Kong and on the ethnic Uighur community.

France has substantial territory and economic interests in the Pacific. French Polynesia, an archipelago of more than 100 islands, has vast mineral resources and fisheries, a source of tensions with Beijing’s trawler fleet.

An Élysée official said that Macron would present “the Indo-Pacific strategy and the position France intends to maintain in this increasingly polarised zone”…..

The UK announced last week that it would permanently deploy two warships to the region after the carrier, HMS Queen Elizabeth, and its escort ships sail to Japan in September through the South China Sea, which China claims as its own.

Macron has said that France will help South Pacific nations to launch a coastguard network to counter “predatory” behaviour as China expands its maritime reach, often with paramilitary fishing vessels.

“To better cope with the predatory logic we are all victims of, I want to boost our maritime co-operation in the South Pacific,” Macron said after a video conference with Pacific leaders.

The president has been pushing for a strategic alliance with India and Australia to respond to challenges in the Asia-Pacific region.

Paris showed its military capabilities in the Pacific last month when it sent Rafale jet fighters, troop transport aircraft and air-to-air refuellers to Tahiti to show that its forces could intervene in the region in less than 48 hours.

The month before, French, American and Japanese troops carried out their first joint military drills, on land and at sea off Japan. Lloyd Austin, the US defence secretary, said France was an “ideal partner” as Washington was seeking alliances against Beijing.

China’s ambitions in the region, where it has been investing in nations, appear to have suffered a blow in Samoa where the country’s first female prime minister is preparing to take office on Monday after a 100-day stand-off with the country’s long serving, pro-China incumbent, who refused to accept defeat in the election.

Fiame Naomi Mata’afa, 64, has said that she will scuttle China’s plans to build a wharf to berth up to 12 large vessels near Samoa’s capital, Apia. The $90 million project was backed by Sa’ilele Malielegaoi, 76, who claimed that it would benefit local families.

Many of the 290,000 people in France’s Pacific territories hope that Macron confirms compensation for victims of radiation after the 30-year nuclear testing programme that began in the Pacific in 1966.

Studies have estimated that more than 100,000 people were affected by fallout from at least 175 underground and atmospheric nuclear tests. They remain a source of deep resentment. Only 63 French Polynesians have been compensated for radiation exposure since the tests ended in 1996.
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Old 26th Jul 2021, 07:20
  #989 (permalink)  
 
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The French support their territories very well in the S Pacific - no reason for any of them to really want full independence nor to go to the Chinese.

It's the smaller countries that really depend on Australian and NZ goodwill and who can be tempted by kind Uncle Xi that are the issue
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Old 27th Jul 2021, 02:03
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Originally Posted by Asturias56 View Post
You are right - the situation is pretty clear - both sides claim to be part of "China" and both sides see the others as theones who should bend..... but one is very much bigger than the other.

No inbuilt stability in the situation
'...both sides claim to be part of "China"'

No, they don't.

Things have changed a lot from when the KMT took refuge in Taiwan in 49 and from the One China Policy of the early 70's.
- There are older people in Taiwan who still identify to an extent with Japan....but anyway the DPP and younger Taiwanese see themselves as Taiwanese firstly. (And rightly so imho). Having seen what the CCP has done to Macau, Hong Kong and how the CCP under Xi acts in the PRC and in foreign policy it is not surprising they do not want to join a 'Greater China'
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Old 27th Jul 2021, 06:25
  #991 (permalink)  
 
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I don't think either Government (as opposed to popular opinion in Taiwan) has changed their long-held policies tho'
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Old 27th Jul 2021, 06:40
  #992 (permalink)  
 
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...er well when the DPP replaced the KMT in a democratic vote it certainly did.
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Old 27th Jul 2021, 07:26
  #993 (permalink)  
 
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Asturias56
You seem to think that "Government" in Taiwan is a static thing. If I may say so, that is seriously to misunderstand the situation there, but I see that Load Toad has beaten me to it.
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Old 27th Jul 2021, 09:03
  #994 (permalink)  
 
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The HK situation provides most of the information we need to predict the future relationship between Taiwan and the PRC. Did anyone actually believe that the PRC would be prepared to tolerate a fundamentally contrary political system persisting inside China? It was always clear that the Chinese government would allow a "decent interval" to elapse before starting to assimilate HK completely - as we see happening now. The idea that the PRC will ever reconcile itself to the existence of a second "Chinese Government" in Taiwan is preposterous. This is a long game but there's only one likely outcome.
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Old 27th Jul 2021, 10:31
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Is there any historical basis to China's claim to sovereignty over waters within the the nine dash line, other than that the line appeared (first as an eleven dash line) on a map issued by China in 1947, based apparently on an earlier map from 1935? What is the historical basis for the claims underpinning the 1947 map?

The 2016 arbitration tribunal ruling declared China's claim to be invalid because it had never exercised sole sovereign control over the waters in question. So as far as can be ascertained by the external observer, the sole basis for the claim is that at some point in the early 20th century, China decided that it should be so. Is there anything historically substantive justifying the line?
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Old 27th Jul 2021, 12:15
  #996 (permalink)  
 
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There is some interesting background in this document to China's claims to the SCS. It would appear that they have no leg to stand on under law.

South China Sea Tribunal

IG
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Old 27th Jul 2021, 15:08
  #997 (permalink)  
 
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Quite lengthy article in The Times this afternoon.

China building second nuclear missile base, satellite images reveal


Intro:-
China is building a new nuclear missile base, according to satellite images which provide further evidence that Beijing has embarked on a significant expansion of its arsenal.

The new silo complex encompasses an area of about 800 sq km (308 sq miles) in the desert near the city of Hami in the east part of the far western region of Xinjiang, not far from one of the country’s notorious re-education camps for Uighur Muslims.

It is being constructed around 240 miles northwest of another missile silo development, which was spotted a few weeks ago near the ancient Silk Road city of Yumen, also deep in the country’s interior.
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Old 27th Jul 2021, 15:40
  #998 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Lyneham Lad View Post
Quite lengthy article in The Times this afternoon.

China building second nuclear missile base, satellite images reveal


Intro:-
Been in the defence press for a while now. We really can't say that we weren't warned.
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Old 27th Jul 2021, 17:04
  #999 (permalink)  
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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c...veal-7j2tkp559

China building second nuclear missile base, satellite images reveal

China is building a new nuclear missile base, according to satellite images which provide further evidence that Beijing has embarked on a significant expansion of its arsenal.

The new silo complex encompasses an area of about 800 sq km (308 sq miles) in the desert near the city of Hami in the east part of the far western region of Xinjiang, not far from one of the country’s notorious re-education camps for Uighur Muslims.

It is being constructed around 240 miles northwest of another missile silo development, which was spotted a few weeks ago near the ancient Silk Road city of Yumen, also deep in the country’s interior.

The two new sites constitute “the most significant expansion of the Chinese nuclear arsenal ever”, wrote Matt Korda and Hans Kristensen, researchers at the Federation of American Scientists, who identified the Hami silo field as first reported by The New York Times.

With the construction of 120 silos at Yumen and potentially another 110 at Hami, it would amount to a tenfold increase in the number of known ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) fixed launch points in China, according to the researchers.

“The number of new Chinese silos under construction exceeds the number of silo-based ICBMs operated by Russia, and constitutes more than half of the size of the entire US ICBM force,” Korda and Kristensen said.

“The Chinese missile silo programme constitutes the most extensive silo construction since the US and Soviet missile silo construction during the Cold War.”

China, which also operates a force of about 100 mobile ICBM launchers, is believed to have a relatively modest stockpile of around 300 nuclear warheads as part of a policy sometimes referred to as “minimum deterrent”, which now appears to now be changing.

Admiral Charles Richard, who commands the US nuclear forces, said earlier this year that the Chinese nuclear weapons stockpile was “expected to double, if not triple or quadruple, over the next decade”…..


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Old 27th Jul 2021, 20:32
  #1000 (permalink)  
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https://www.snafu-solomon.com/2021/0...to-invade.html

Leaked map shows China plans to invade S. Taiwan after taking Kinmen, Penghu

via Taiwan News.

Later that afternoon, two accounts on the tightly government-orchestrated social media site Weibo, Tianfu Community and Dingsheng Forum, released a photo of PLA soldiers seated with their backs turned to a massive topographical model of southern Taiwan. The model is covered in black marks, appearing to show key strategic locations the PLA plans to seize during an invasion…….

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