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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

Old 25th Jun 2020, 17:02
  #481 (permalink)  
 
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Chinese are calling India's bluff.
They seem to be working on the old "possession is nine tenths of the law" or something like that.
India, ball's in your court.
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Old 25th Jun 2020, 18:26
  #482 (permalink)  
 
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I wonder how much water is going to rush down that river bed when the monsoon strikes.
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Old 26th Jun 2020, 10:12
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Excellent point - if you look a tthe MAXAR picture you can see the lines where the river comes overt the gravel - either monsoon or glacial melt must flood most of that site. They got a truck in (you can see it) probably by driving down the riverbed - OK now but... and I can't see any "gun positions". Its hard to ID exactly where that site is on GE but it's clearly an escalation.

On the other hand " in place of the observation post that was destroyed by Indian troops in the bloody clash of June 15th" - which suggests it wasn't exactly one -sided...........
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Old 26th Jun 2020, 21:42
  #484 (permalink)  
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India starts a TV campaign to boycott Chinese goods.

Quite a good professional ad, be interesting to see if they push it to start imposing tariffs or import restrictions......

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Old 27th Jun 2020, 14:16
  #485 (permalink)  
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https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...w/76661064.cms

India moves air defence missile systems into Eastern Ladakh Sector
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Old 27th Jun 2020, 14:26
  #486 (permalink)  

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I'm enjoying WION news, especially Palki Sharma! She gets stuck into the CCP!
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Old 27th Jun 2020, 18:47
  #487 (permalink)  
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...na-sea-dispute

Asean leaders cite 1982 UN treaty in South China Sea dispute
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Old 28th Jun 2020, 08:54
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That would indeed be the best way forward - an international conference and work groups - but the Chinese HATE that idea. They always claim they are willing to negotiate boundaries but only on a one-on-one basis. TBF they have, in the past, negotiated quite fair land boundaries with most of their neighbours. But these days maybe Xi and his mates wouldn't be able to resist the temptation to lean on the weaker brethren.
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Old 29th Jun 2020, 00:01
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Asturias, 800 pound gorillas are not obliged to be polite. Nor to get along well with others.
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Old 29th Jun 2020, 11:23
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you are right but to quote Mr Capone "you get so much further with a kind word and a gun than with a kind word alone..."
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Old 29th Jun 2020, 12:14
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As Mao Tse tung said. 枪杆子里面出政权 (Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun).
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Old 29th Jun 2020, 16:30
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I'm reading Bolton's book - it must have Xi et al in stitches.................. they don't need to fight anyone - just keep varying the pressure and make sure no idiot starts something on their own. They'll get what they want sometime in the next 10-20 years. No-one in the west can think beyond the next election...............

(I think Bolton is a nut case on many things - Dr Strangelove indeed - but he isn't a total idiot and his description of process in Washington is really frightening)
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Old 30th Jun 2020, 08:03
  #493 (permalink)  
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Then and now. The militarisation - and introduction of weapons, continues apace.......

The Times:

“Beijing claims that it wants to calm the situation but also insists that it will not budge on any territorial claims. Last week satellite images showed that China had built new structures, including a camp and a new road, near the site of the clash with India, raising fears that tensions will escalate.

​​​​​​​It has also emerged that Beijing has deployed a new lightweight truck-mounted howitzer designed for rugged terrain to the Tibetan Plateau. The PCL-181, a 155mm self-propelled gun, is said to be one of the best in the world. Footage of the howitzer being transported via railway to the plateau appeared on state television.

“Its appearance on the front line means China is serious about using force to safeguard territorial integrity,” wrote the Global Times, a party-run newspaper with a nationalistic bent......


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Old 30th Jun 2020, 14:48
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Slightly further afield...
In The Guardian - Australia to acquire long-range missiles as PM warns of dangerous post-Covid-19 world

Snip:-
Australia’s defence force is set to acquire long-range missiles and research hypersonic weapons systems, as Scott Morrison warns the country to prepare for a more dangerous post-Covid-19 world and an increasingly contested Indo-Pacific region.

The Australian prime minister will use a speech on Wednesday to outline a more muscular defence posture, arguing the ADF needs “stronger deterrence capabilities” as the Indo-Pacific becomes “the focus of the dominant global contest of our age” amid tensions between China and the United States.

Morrison will reveal a pledge to spend $270bn on new and upgraded defence capabilities over the next decade – a substantial increase from the $195bn committed in the 10 years from 2016 when the last defence white paper was released, although it covers a later time period.
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Old 30th Jun 2020, 15:41
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Thanks ORAC - those two photos are clearly south at the top and are at 34 deg 46' 09.50" N 078 deg 12' 47" E on GE. The LAC runs along the top (or actually southern) boundary of the pictures - its about 4.5 kms east of the junction with the Shyock River. If you believe the line on GE the camp is only about 100m over the line and I suspect it's actually on the 1962 Chinese Boundary Marker.

It would be nice to have dates on the two pictures - the track seems to disappear to the top (south) along the river - the nearest track on GE is about 15 kms ESE as the crow flies but more like 30 km if they follow the river bed........

Last edited by Asturias56; 1st Jul 2020 at 14:18.
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Old 30th Jun 2020, 16:20
  #496 (permalink)  
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If you believe the line on GE the camp is only about 100m over the line and I suspect it's actually on the 1962 Chinese Boundary Marker.
From the same article.........


A top Chinese military commander has been pictured painting a border marker on the country’s disputed Himalayan frontier with India in a public show of Beijing’s determination to push its territorial claims.

The images of Wang Haijiang, the commander-in-chief of the People’s Liberation Army in Tibet, showed him repainting the character for “China” in red on the frontier, established in 1962 when Chinese troops defeated Indian forces in a border war.

Lieutenant General Wang is the most senior military figure to have visited the border since June 15, when a deadly border brawl broke out in the contentious Galwan Valley between Chinese and Indian soldiers after a weeks-long standoff.........






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Old 30th Jun 2020, 16:48
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Interesting article, published 19 June, on warontherocks by Yun Sun, Director of the China Program at the Stimson Center. He seems to think the incident wasn't premeditated and is partly the result of increased Chinese paranoia in the wake of Covid-19 and a feeling India was stabbing them in the back.

China’s top South Asia experts were not consulted until roughly ten days after the beginning of the standoff. The late involvement of the policy community suggests that the standoff was not based on advanced planning.
China’s Strategic Assessment of the Ladakh Clash

Conclusion

The Ladakh clash should not have been a surprise. Similar events have been happening along the disputed border between China and India for years, but only the few most heated ones make the news. Beijing believes India is exploiting a temporary period of Chinese weakness and is responding forcefully as a result. Strategically, it may not help China’s desired goal to keep India neutral. But since Beijing sees a neutral India as untenable to begin with, tactical gains that can bog India down along the disputed border, frustrate New Delhi’s regional and global ambitions, and remind India of the eventual need for compromise may not be the worst case in China’s cost-benefit analysis. Tactically, China appears to be aiming for what it achieved in the 1962 war. Despite what the outsiders might see as China’s mistake, China is unlikely to change its current strategic assessment. China and India will eventually find a face-saving mutual compromise to end the Ladakh standoff, as neither wants a war. However, the unsettled border will continue to destabilize, fester, and brew more clashes down the road.
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Old 1st Jul 2020, 07:05
  #498 (permalink)  
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I think these two reports are probably related.......

Japan to test IR senor for missile detection; will use commercial satellites to track Chinese ships ? Alert 5

Japan to test IR sensor for missile detection; will use commercial satellites to track Chinese ships

Japan?s LDP to consider getting Tomahawks for preemptive strikes ? Alert 5

Japan’s LDP to consider getting Tomahawks for preemptive strikes

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Old 1st Jul 2020, 14:17
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Thanks ORAC!!!
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Old 4th Jul 2020, 13:22
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https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1193485.shtml
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