Iran Threatens to Close Strait of Hormuz

[crystal10]

Remind us of your credentials.

I am Air Chief Marshal Sir Stephen Dalton KCB ADC BSc FRAeS CCMI RAF you fool. Now get off the line I am waiting for an important call.

[COCL2]

Presumably though that Russian air wing could provide a pretty good make-shift AEW service for the Iranians for anything heading from the west?

[glojo]

Whilst this forum is all about 'air', I would respectfully suggest that the United States of America have a number of Ohio class nuclear submarines (boats) which are EACH capable of carrying in excess of 150 Tomahawk missiles, how many will be near to that location?

Then there is two carrier groups, possibly three with their own submarines, all of which will be carrying these long range missiles. Then we must not overlook the warships that are a part of these powerful formations. Arleigh Burke, or maybe a number of Ticonderoga, again these will also have been shopping and I am assuming their magazines will not just be carrying the latest copy of 'Play-boy\girl\person' They will all have a full complement of Tomahawk.

I guess at times we are all guilty of wearing blinkers which prevent us from seeing the bigger picture. The power of THREE or even two carrier battle groups should NOT be underestimated.

Are we convinced that push has come to shove? Is there any benefits to blocking of the Strait? I still have my fingers crossed that this willy waggling contest might shrink, shrivel or fade away.

America has the might but would it act alone?

[racedo]

I am still not convinced that push has come to shove, I still cannot see the benefits of blocking the Strait and I still have my fingers crossed that this willy waggling contest might shrink, shrivel or fade away.

Their are certain National interests who want this to be done on their behalf but question is whether the US / Iran have the ability to step back.

Iran having a nuke doesn't mean war.

[parabellum]

In the late seventies we used to fly into Shiraz and see a formidible array of F4s and F5s, went in again in 1989/90 and the same aircraft looked very, very sad.

Any conflict involving the Strait of Hormuz, an international waterway, with Iran would see their very limited airforce taken out on day one, combine that with multiple sinkings of their very limited navy and then step back and see what they have to offer next, probably 'discussions', since they are not yet nuclear capable. Iran is divided between the radical Mullahs and their blind following and the highly intelligent and educated 'rest', The mullahs currently hold sway with the police and military but given a full on confrontation with the West I believe the 'rest' will come to life.

[COCL2]

Any conflict on Iran is a direct threat to Russia

"“Iran is our close neighbor, just south of the Caucasus. Should anything happen to Iran, should Iran get drawn into any political or military hardships, this will be a direct threat to our national security,” stressed Rogozin.
Dmitry Rogozin, who served as Russia’s special envoy to NATO in 2008-2011, was appointed deputy prime minister by Vladimir Putin in December. On Friday he was bidding farewell to his NATO colleagues in the alliance’s headquarters in Brussels."

"“Syria must be left alone and the sides to the conflict must be assisted in breaking the stand-off and starting negotiations. No one must interfere with Syria. This is dangerous,” added Rogozin."`

At least one direct threat there

[Finningley Boy]

I am Air Chief Marshal Sir Stephen Dalton KCB ADC BSc FRAeS CCMI RAF you fool. Now get off the line I am waiting for an important call.

Who would have credited it!

FB

[Courtney Mil]

Originally Posted by COCL2

At least one direct threat there

Not a threat, a promise, I think. Thank you the post, interesting that they are in there for Iran and Syria.

So, my question now is, "Is his posturing directed at the West or at Israel and the Arab League?" Or is Russia ready to take on the world again?

Dmitry Rogozin fully understands the weakness of the leadership in a number of western countries, the state of chaos in many Midle East countries and the crisis in Europe. It might be a very good time for Russia to flex its muscles on the world stage.

Courtney

[parabellum]

One of Russia's primary concerns about the Middle East is being able to maintain warm water ports for it's fleet, both Syria and Iran can provide these.

[ORAC]

AFP: Iran warns Gulf states not to make up oil shortfall

(AFP) TEHRAN — Iran has warned its Gulf neighbours to not step in to make up for any shortfall in its oil exports under new Western sanctions, according to comments by its OPEC representative quoted on Sunday by the Sharq newspaper.

"We would not consider these actions to be friendly," Mohammad Ali Khatibi was quoted as saying. "If the oil producing nations on the Persian Gulf decide to substitute Iran's oil, then they will be held responsible for what happens," he said.

UAE to test pipeline bypassing the Gulf

A pipeline designed to carry the UAE's oil to an offshore terminal in Fujairah will begin testing in May. If the tests are successful, the pipeline will begin operation the following month. The pipeline is being constructed to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, thereby cutting the shipping time by two days and reducing the impact of a possible blockade by Iran.

The pipeline will carry oil from Habshan, Abu Dhabi's onshore oil collection point, to an offshore oil terminal in Fujairah, some 370 km away. When completed, it will carry 1.4 million bpd, but could increase capacity in the future to 1.8 bpd or over 70 percent of Abu Dhabi's output. Abu Dhabi contains 90 percent of the UAE's crude oil reserves. The $3.29 billion construction project is being run by the International Petroleum Investment Company (IPIC), the overseas oil investment arm of the government of Abu Dhabi.

Although construction of the pipeline has suffered repeated delays, originally being scheduled to open last April, UAE Oil Minister Mohamed bin Dhaen al-Hamli announced on Monday that it would soon be complete. He said, "The first tanker loaded will be in about six months' time, ready for export."

The stated purpose of the pipeline is ostensibly to shorten the trip for oil tankers carrying crude from the UAE. Bypassing the Gulf reduces shipping times by two days, thereby lowering production costs. However, it is widely understood that the larger purpose of the pipeline is to ensure the continued exportation of oil in the event thatIran blockades the Strait of Hormuz. The Islamic Republic has repeatedly threatened to do so in the event that sanctions against it are strengthened, and the military has even conducted a 10-day military exercise to practice closing down the narrow waterway. Nearly 35 percent of globally traded oil passes through the strait, and Saudi Arabia and Oman are the only Gulf countries with terminals outside of Hormuz.

[glojo]

An interesting development and are we now seeing Iran for what it is?
It would be easy for Iran to interrupt oil flow and although this forum is all about air power, it does not take air power to blow out a section of pipe-line. A relatively easy task and if the pipe is blown along with the pump stations then job done.

We have all witnessed the reactions of the West if oil production is interfered with and does anyone believe that situation has altered?
Iran is clearly threatening its neighbours not to increase their oil supplies to Western nations, what will it do if this instruction is ignored? I am obviously thinking Iraq\Kuwait.

How much does it cost to keep just one Nimitz class carrier battle group at a high degree of readiness on station in a high threat environment where aircraft will no doubt be putting in far more flying than they would at a lesser state of alert? Can America afford this and if so, for how long? Will they walk away if Iran restricts its oil production and more to the point, if Iran attempts to take punitive measures against other countries that increase their oil production.
Is this a country that wants to rule all of the oil producing Middle East States? I have often asked who is behind this Arab Spring and what is the future of those countries?

[JS_Nim]

Support to RN

New member so I am reading rather than commenting. Very interesting views.

I am involved in supporting the RN Mine Hunter in the gulf. There is a lot of preparation and training being done.

As many of you have commented - lets wait and see

[Vortex what...ouch!]

Iran is the same country that failed to do anything more than fight Iraq to a standstill some years ago. The same Iraq that had their military arses handed to them on a plate, twice.

While you should never underestimate your enemy, lets not forget this is a people who promote on contacts rather than merit.

If they decide to kick off its going to be messy, and not in their favour.

If their politicians push it they have only their selves to blame for the fall out, and it aint good.

[COCL2]

Interesting Georgian-authored mood piece on Pravda here: Iran to kick off World War Three - English pravda.ru
Mainly discussing the ramifications for the Caucasus in the event of a war with Iran
Couple of statements to make note of:
"....... anti-Iranian enemies have failed to build the "axis of hatred" around Iran. Therefore, many countries in the region will support Iran either directly or by implication. In particular, it goes about China. Chinese President Hu Jintao stated that if the USA or any other country attacked Iran, China would take responsive measures immediately. As for Moscow, sources at Russia's Defense Ministry said that the forces in the region had already been mobilized in case of a possible war...............
"Russia will obviously stand up against the war with Iran. It will not be possible for Russia not to be involved in the conflict. Russia may come into a military alliance with China in case of the conflict. The alliance may gradually develop into the anti-Western coalition of forces against Israel and the USA, if they get involved in the war too."

It goes on to speculate that the war would also cause tensions between Russia and Georgia, and between Armenia and Azerbaijan

[Mach Two]

A very interesting article. Thanks for posting it. The UK could have been involved if we'd maintained any sort of fixed wing maritime air capability. Although with the massive, two-carrier task group forming there, perhaps better not to. Not at sea, anyway.

My question is, would action in response to an Iranian blockade, designed only to reopen an international waterway constitute aggression against Iran in Russian and Chinese eyes? Any help there?

[COCL2]

I think you have to go back a step and ask why Iran would blockade the Strait. Would they do it in response to just financial / trade sanctions? Or if the USA + allies implemented a physical blockade, stopping Iranian ships and confiscating cargo? If the latter I can see the Russians and Chinese interpreting THAT as being the initial hostile act and reacting accordingly on Iran's side. You have to remember that so far the Iranians have only threatened to block the Strait in response to Western sanctions, but they've never stated at which point they would react.

[Mach Two]

Good point. I can see that now you say it. So, going a step in the other direction, what if trade sanctions were to be observed, choking Iran and then Iran blockaded the Strait as they've been threatening? If the US reacted with force to re-open the straight and get everyone else's oil flowing again, how would that be seen? Or do you not think that's a likely scenario?

[COCL2]

Do Iran have the ability to block the strait without Russian assistance? Forget their Navy, except for those missile carrying patrol boat swarms. They'd use their land based missiles. Can they designate targets for those without using Russian imagery?
If not they'd need Russian connivance at the outset.
And who is to say just who is flying any aircraft - and who they belong to.
If Iran blockade, they will have recieved some kind of Russian assurances first

[racedo]

Question is whether the US is now using its forces throughout the region, plus those currently in Israel to make it clear to Israel that any attack on Iran by Israel will not be tolerated.

Israel's propensity to act without thinking of wider consequences, is well known, reasons are understandabke. So maybe Obama is accepting Iranian nukes as a fait accompli to be dealt with in time but needs to keep Israel in check from starting WW3.

As Iranian President has 18 months left to serve on his term of office and can not stand again then maybe allowing time to take its natural course may be a considered option...........as unlikely as that seems.

US will know that having a single Carrier group in same area requires lots of resupply, having 3 will use up lots of resources very quickly if they are there for an indefinite time which is why I see US carriers moving within 2 weeks.

[racedo]

Do Iran have the ability to block the strait without Russian assistance? Forget their Navy, except for those missile carrying patrol boat swarms. They'd use their land based missiles. Can they designate targets for those without using Russian imagery?

Depends what you mean block....

Shore base artillery at the Straits narrowest point would dissaude most ship owners from getting anywhere near there, they don't need to fire on anyone as psycological threat is more effective.

Forget the political rhetoric, unless Govts underwrite the full replacement costs of ships entering the zone there is no chance that ship owners will risk it as Lloyds will not insure. This was evident during Iran-Iraq war when reflagging on tankers took place.

Your point on who is flying what aircraft is well made, everyone knows Iran has F4s but there are many others still around and a quick paint job is easily possible..........Remember The Maine and Gulf of Tonkin revisited.

Why do I get the feeling I am rereading a 12 year old book on a mid east war where US nukes Israel called Total War 2006 !!!!