Iran Threatens to Close Strait of Hormuz
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from a FARS press release today
"The Islamic Republic's top military officials have repeatedly warned that in case of an attack by either the US or Israel, the country would target 32 American bases in the Middle East and close the strategic Strait of Hormuz."
32 simultaneous attacks would be a heck of an achievement. The statement surely implies that they have the capability in place now -or at least they think they have it in place
"The Islamic Republic's top military officials have repeatedly warned that in case of an attack by either the US or Israel, the country would target 32 American bases in the Middle East and close the strategic Strait of Hormuz."
32 simultaneous attacks would be a heck of an achievement. The statement surely implies that they have the capability in place now -or at least they think they have it in place
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The statement surely implies that they have the capability in place now -or at least they think they have it in place
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and while not directly related to this thread, here's another step in this whole web of deceit
Pakistan, UK deny call expressing coup fears | Pakistan | DAWN.COM
"ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani telephoned the top British diplomat in the country this week expressing fears that the Pakistani army might be about to stage a coup, a British official and an official in Islamabad said on Friday."
Of course its all being denied, but then they would, wouldn't they?
Pakistan, UK deny call expressing coup fears | Pakistan | DAWN.COM
"ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani telephoned the top British diplomat in the country this week expressing fears that the Pakistani army might be about to stage a coup, a British official and an official in Islamabad said on Friday."
Of course its all being denied, but then they would, wouldn't they?
AA - Insh'Allah can be an expression of Faith, a hope, a comfort; but it is not a plan....
as for our plans, as related to military aviation, it doesn't seem there's much that bombing can now achieve, short of using buckets of instant sunshine, to reduce their ability to produce nukes.
An action by their Navy to shut the Straits would seem spectacularly silly, as we could probably convert their fleet into the world's best wreck dive site in about 3 days - do you think it's a cunning plan to get the tourism dollars in? I think we can take Straits closing threats to be for an internal audience.
as for our plans, as related to military aviation, it doesn't seem there's much that bombing can now achieve, short of using buckets of instant sunshine, to reduce their ability to produce nukes.
An action by their Navy to shut the Straits would seem spectacularly silly, as we could probably convert their fleet into the world's best wreck dive site in about 3 days - do you think it's a cunning plan to get the tourism dollars in? I think we can take Straits closing threats to be for an internal audience.
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Crystal 10
OK I'll spell out the oil problem for you.
Russia is the largest exporter of oil worldwide.
Iran has by far the largest reserves.
Soon it is likely that Iran will be blocked from exporting through its own ports. If Russia were to provide a pipeline link from Iran to the Syrian coast then it would control a large proportion of the worlds oil supplies. While the USA would have no problem interdicting Iranian tankers, its unlikely to try to stop Russian ones. With China and India as willing customers there would be a ready market - and Russia would have enough control of the global market to starve Europe and make life difficult for the USA.
Thats the threat, and that is why Russia is so interested in what happens in Syria.
Now it seems to me that that is directly related to the subject of this thread - passage of the Strait of Hormuz
PS - sorry I only saw your second complaint after I'd already posted.
The justification for the Pakistani link is that quite simply if (or more probably when) there is a military coup in Pakistan then things are going to become much more problematic for our forces in Afghanistan. For one, where is the exit route? For two, just who are the enemy going to be?
OK I'll spell out the oil problem for you.
Russia is the largest exporter of oil worldwide.
Iran has by far the largest reserves.
Soon it is likely that Iran will be blocked from exporting through its own ports. If Russia were to provide a pipeline link from Iran to the Syrian coast then it would control a large proportion of the worlds oil supplies. While the USA would have no problem interdicting Iranian tankers, its unlikely to try to stop Russian ones. With China and India as willing customers there would be a ready market - and Russia would have enough control of the global market to starve Europe and make life difficult for the USA.
Thats the threat, and that is why Russia is so interested in what happens in Syria.
Now it seems to me that that is directly related to the subject of this thread - passage of the Strait of Hormuz
PS - sorry I only saw your second complaint after I'd already posted.
The justification for the Pakistani link is that quite simply if (or more probably when) there is a military coup in Pakistan then things are going to become much more problematic for our forces in Afghanistan. For one, where is the exit route? For two, just who are the enemy going to be?
Last edited by COCL2; 13th Jan 2012 at 16:57.
COCL2,
A good analysis, I think. And I actually think it is related to this thread - Strait of Hormuz after all. Am I right in thinking that there already is/was a pipeline across to the Med or somewhere?
A good analysis, I think. And I actually think it is related to this thread - Strait of Hormuz after all. Am I right in thinking that there already is/was a pipeline across to the Med or somewhere?
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Abu Tunb & Abu Musa
This brings back memories of getting airborne from Sharjah in 1971 in the venerable Shack 2.3. After take off (0700 hrs), the first task was a "flag" check on the tiny islands of Tunb & Musa, situated midway between Sharjah & Iran just inside the straits.
Sometimes the local flag raiser overslept so we used to wake him with a noisy low fly by. 5 minutes later he could be seen dashing madly to the flag pole to raise his flag. We always received a cheery wave (I think he was waving??).
Sometimes the local flag raiser overslept so we used to wake him with a noisy low fly by. 5 minutes later he could be seen dashing madly to the flag pole to raise his flag. We always received a cheery wave (I think he was waving??).
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Courtney
Correct - an old 1930's pipeline from NE Iraq to the Syrian coast. It was blown up in GW1 and never repaired, though the Russians have shown an interest. It could be patched up, or replaced with new pipes alongside. All you would need then is a new pipe from Iran to Iraq.
And if anyone thinks thats too farfetched, there is already a gas pipeline along the route, while plans are in place for a gas pipe from Iran into Pakistan, India and maybe China. Where you can put a gas pipe you can put an oil pipe.
Edit
It runs Kirkuk (Iraq) > Baniyas (Syria) and dates from the 1950's not 1930's
Correct - an old 1930's pipeline from NE Iraq to the Syrian coast. It was blown up in GW1 and never repaired, though the Russians have shown an interest. It could be patched up, or replaced with new pipes alongside. All you would need then is a new pipe from Iran to Iraq.
And if anyone thinks thats too farfetched, there is already a gas pipeline along the route, while plans are in place for a gas pipe from Iran into Pakistan, India and maybe China. Where you can put a gas pipe you can put an oil pipe.
Edit
It runs Kirkuk (Iraq) > Baniyas (Syria) and dates from the 1950's not 1930's
COCL2,
If we don't see a stabilized Iran anytime soon, I would imagine that a lot of people would see a great benefit in rebuilding the oil pipe. It would certainly put the limiters on Iran's strangle hold on the Strait.
As I'm sure the FCO, etc, get most of their good policy ideas from here, I'm glad we brought it up. Consider it done!
If we don't see a stabilized Iran anytime soon, I would imagine that a lot of people would see a great benefit in rebuilding the oil pipe. It would certainly put the limiters on Iran's strangle hold on the Strait.
As I'm sure the FCO, etc, get most of their good policy ideas from here, I'm glad we brought it up. Consider it done!
Last edited by Courtney Mil; 13th Jan 2012 at 17:29. Reason: Typo
COCL2,
I'm also interested in linking this in with your earlier post about three carrier groups in the area and, if not a build-up then a very strong message. They did say they were going for multiple levels of sanctions, so that might fit. And, yes, I think three carriers there could make a good start at a no fly zone especially considering the analysis we did before on Iran's fast air capability.
I'm also interested in linking this in with your earlier post about three carrier groups in the area and, if not a build-up then a very strong message. They did say they were going for multiple levels of sanctions, so that might fit. And, yes, I think three carriers there could make a good start at a no fly zone especially considering the analysis we did before on Iran's fast air capability.
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The three carries were glojo's point, not mine.
However if placed near the Iranian coast they would create a heck of a diversion to allow a clear run for anything coming in from the Med.
Would just need to beat the Russians
However if placed near the Iranian coast they would create a heck of a diversion to allow a clear run for anything coming in from the Med.
Would just need to beat the Russians
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Just checking what's on the carriers you mentioned and they have embarked a bigger FJ force than we had in any of our recent "no fly ops". I agree they could do the job, but politically they would probably not want to go it alone.
Can't the mods do something about that annoying background yapping, please. I too find this interesting and it has a military aviation flavour.
Can't the mods do something about that annoying background yapping, please. I too find this interesting and it has a military aviation flavour.
Indeed, it was glojo that raised the carriers. Sorry, trying to answer too many points in one post.
Thanks, M2. Check your PMs
Thanks, M2. Check your PMs
Last edited by Courtney Mil; 13th Jan 2012 at 18:06.
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Crystal,
You're starting sound a lot like SAMXXV. Perhaps you are. Anyway, this is a valid discussion so if you find it boring, why not go to another thread instead?
You're starting sound a lot like SAMXXV. Perhaps you are. Anyway, this is a valid discussion so if you find it boring, why not go to another thread instead?
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There are too many civvy bedwetters on this forum who have not even served in the military. COCL2 being one of them.
This is a military forum for military people.
Take your civvy stuff to Jetblast.
This is a military forum for military people.
Take your civvy stuff to Jetblast.
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Sorry, Crystal10, I didn't mean to offend you, but I think you are starting to become abusive now. Unfortunately for you, all the people you're attacking are known to me and they are either military or ex-military. Remind us of your credentials. Better still, just stop upsetting people.
Time for the mods to step in, I think.
Time for the mods to step in, I think.