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LIBYA (Merged) Use this thread ONLY

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Old 19th Mar 2011, 22:44
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Ironically the biggest loser in all these political upheavals in the near and middle east will be Israel. Once people the people in Libya/Egypt/Tunisia/Saudia/Yemen/Bahrain/Morocco are genuinely empowered, they will be far more radically anti-Israel than most of their former dictatorial leaders who have been tacitly supported by the West.

If true democracy does sweep through the Islamic world, then there will be very fundamental changes in Israel too.
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Old 19th Mar 2011, 23:01
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Trim,

I rather doubt it. So far, the revolutions have been focussed on the failures of the previous regimes to provide economic empowerment and political pluralism for their people - things that a war (of words or worse) with Israel won't solve.

S41
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Old 19th Mar 2011, 23:16
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Unhappy why?

now that the UK, US and France have reacted to Gaddaffi people will begin asking why we did not respond to Mugabe or even the riots in Egypt that have argueably sparked the current turmoil.
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Old 19th Mar 2011, 23:20
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Isn't tribalism part of the equation?

Sunni vs Shiite

Hutu vs Tutsi

Bugandans vs Bunyoros

Shona vs Ndebele

etc etc etc.

Colonially imposed borders have never accounted for tribes and hence started the ferment we see now.

And BZs all round for tonight's show.

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Old 19th Mar 2011, 23:21
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Yep, the US doesn't like him and unlike Blair, didn't "forget the past" and cuddle up to him.
The west has been 'cuddling up to him' behind the scenes for years. Yet when it came to it dropped him (more understandable) and Mubarak like a ton of bricks.
Frankly we look like vultures. And that's why I find the inconsistent reaction repugnant. We are I fear fostering the belief that OUR culture is pervasive.

That said, safe wings to our lads out there tonight.
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Old 19th Mar 2011, 23:24
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Why are we doing this, never in the face of adversity have so many done so much for the cn*** at the top, feable poor leaders who hide behind others , David Cameron , Cleg and the Scottish ****, fail us all , bastards
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Old 19th Mar 2011, 23:28
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Sir G C - Rangers vs Celtic....
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Old 19th Mar 2011, 23:28
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Frankly we look like vultures. And that's why I find the inconsistent reaction repugnant.
Fair comment.

I wonder how long before the fickle Arab 'street' swings behind Gaddafi?
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Old 19th Mar 2011, 23:30
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quote from the BBC: Libyan state TV Al-Jamahiriyah claims civilian targets in Tripoli have been bombed by aircraft of the "crusader enemy"

now that the bombs have begun to drop, we'll have to end this soon or gadaffi will continue to vent his anger on civilians, defeating the whole point of us being there in the first place. will this end gadaffi's rule?
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Old 19th Mar 2011, 23:30
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k_hunjan,

Surely you understand the difference between the Libya situation and the revolution in Egypt? In Libya there has been wholesale employment of the apparatus of the state against its own people. In Egypt, the Army effectively ended up protecting the protesters, who in turn were (broadly) peaceful. So there is no comparison whatsoever between the two.

Zimbabwe is a slightly different matter. There probably is enough evidence of state action against citizens to justify some kind of action. However, the critical issue is that of 'sphere of influence'. South Africa is the leading power of the region and any kind of action would be futile without their full backing, which has been lacking.

The regional powers around Libya (the Arab League, and for argument's sake NATO) are in favour of action so there is no such problem here.
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Old 19th Mar 2011, 23:33
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mlj,

I know that the Libyans could easily have someone watching aircraft movements at airbases around Europe, and a team watching every news station 24/7 frantically guessing whether they're watching library pictures... but let's at least make them work for their intel rather than posting it up here for them?!?

Suggest you delete...

Edit: Looks like someone just did! A warning to others - I suggest that commenting on press coverage is fine, but commenting on movements you've seen at your local airbase is not.
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Old 19th Mar 2011, 23:40
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(sorry to go slightly off topic)
thanks for feedback, i didn't look at it this way. but the point i was making was furthering a previous one by someone else, which was how western countries supposedly define their own 'tyrants' which again, links back to the whole oil issue. anyway, thanks for correcting me, i have a school debate about this on monday and that has offered a different perspective
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Old 19th Mar 2011, 23:52
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Easy Street,

When one had 100+ cruise missiles landing in one's garden how significant might it be that, a thousand (ish) miles away, a particular aircraft type or few took-off (destination unknown)?
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Old 19th Mar 2011, 23:55
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On a Saturday night when action has commenced - fairly significant. Quick calculation of transit time to give a possible TOT.

Better say nothing.
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Old 20th Mar 2011, 00:17
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things that a war (of words or worse) with Israel won't solve
I wouldn't be so sure. When people they find out that democracy doesn't transform their lives and put bread on the table, they may well drift towards those parties who blame their default enemy for their continuing privations. Witness the inexorable drift from moderate to hardline leadership in the Palestinian state, driven in a large part by the harsh economic realities in the enclave. The Israelis are right to be worried I believe.
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Old 20th Mar 2011, 00:30
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AR1,

I said destination unknown, could be destination an Italian or Greek airbase!

Meanwhile, with USS Enterprise (no, not the Star Trek variety) in the vicinity, with the French CDG carrier heading there also, I'd consider the fact that a particular aircraft might have moved from RAF Sandringham, or whatever, to be relatively insignificant vital information!
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Old 20th Mar 2011, 00:38
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We are I fear fostering the belief that OUR culture is pervasive.

Do you actually mean "invasive"? Either way, you're right, Mr. Leftist.

Lefty Multi-Kulties have a lot to fear!
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Old 20th Mar 2011, 00:44
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Phileas,

You may not have noticed - but none of the press reporting has confirmed whether the Tornados have gone from Lossiemouth or Marham, or whether the Typhoons are from Coningsby or Leuchars. Those facts are trivial enough on their own, but narrowing them down highlights which squadrons are going, which in turn indicates which individuals might be going. It is pretty apparent to me that we are purposefully not releasing these details - you can bet your life that the RAF publicity machine would love to tell all, but opsec is prevailing for the time being. Any footage on the news carries uncertainty - "when was this filmed?" etc, and some of today's footage is of routine training sorties (you can tell by the practice bomb carriers) - but time-stamped posts on here ("I just saw this at RAF xxx and it's been busy all evening") provide hard facts.

If the BBC come out tomorrow and give more detail away, that will have been vetted and approved by MoD.
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Old 20th Mar 2011, 00:59
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From guardian.co.uk:

12.21am: A message on Libyan state television says the Libyan government had decided to end efforts to stop illegal immigration into Europe, citing a security source. ...

Gadaffi thinks he's let loose his ultimate weapon, but he's wrong, 'cuz all enlightened Europeans welcome more diversity. It's pervasive!
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Old 20th Mar 2011, 01:04
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The statement from a Libyan government official in this clipping from the Telegraph amused me somewhat:

The missiles targeted Libyan command and control centres, radar installations and surface-to-air missile sites. Libyan officials said the attacks were “barbaric” and causing civilian casualties.
Especially when you compare the intent with that of his leader only a few days ago:

But he said "for those who resist there will be no mercy or compassion" and vowed to also reclaim the rest of the opposition-held east of the country.
and even more ridiculously here:
Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi last night threatened retaliatory attacks against passenger aircraft in the Mediterranean if foreign countries made air strikes against his country.
Suddenly he appears to care about civilian lives! Crocodile tears, indeed. Let's just hope the left-wing press have enough sense not to be taken in this time around.
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