Gaining An R.A.F Pilots Brevet In WW II
Danny42C
Why these his final Posts were taken down (presumably by him) is a mystery to me
I assume something about them must have upset him. I posted some UK press cuttings about the event and he asked me to remove them, which I did (Page 91 Posts #1806 and #1807 refer)
Meanwhile your post prompted me to explore further and was surprised to learn that a young (Lieutenant at the time) Benjamin Netanyahu participated in the rescue and was wounded.
Two years ago there was a conference held in Israel to mark the 40th anniversary of the Sabena rescue mission. As reported in the Jerusalem Post at the time.
Full details here together with two links to YouTube videos of the rescue:
This Week in History: Israeli commandos retake Flight 571
Why these his final Posts were taken down (presumably by him) is a mystery to me
I assume something about them must have upset him. I posted some UK press cuttings about the event and he asked me to remove them, which I did (Page 91 Posts #1806 and #1807 refer)
Meanwhile your post prompted me to explore further and was surprised to learn that a young (Lieutenant at the time) Benjamin Netanyahu participated in the rescue and was wounded.
Two years ago there was a conference held in Israel to mark the 40th anniversary of the Sabena rescue mission. As reported in the Jerusalem Post at the time.
On May 8, 1972, four Palestinian terrorists from Black September boarded Sabena Flight 571 from Vienna to Tel Aviv. Twenty minutes after taking off from a scheduled stop, the hijackers took control of the flight and instructed the captain to continue as planned to Israel’s Lod Airport (now Ben Gurion International Airport). Less than 24 hours later, Israeli commandos, among them today’s most prominent Israeli leaders, launched a daring operation to rescue the flight’s passengers and retake the plane.
Soon after realizing the gravity of the situation, English-born Captain Reginald Levy radioed ahead to Israel to notify authorities of the terrorist plot flying towards them at hundreds of miles per hour. Then-defense minister Moshe Dayan immediately began organizing a response, a perhaps far-fetched plan to rescue the passengers.
In initial contacts, the hijackers made their demands: They would free the passengers and crew in exchange for the release of over 300 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
After nightfall, hours after the plane had parked near Lod Airport’s lone terminal, Israeli forces carefully snuck under the plane to deflate its tires and disable its hydraulic systems. In an attempt to calm the terrorists after they discovered the plane had been disabled, Captain Levy kept them occupied through the night with constant chatter, discussing “everything under the sun … from navigation to sex,” he later recalled.
In the morning, the hijackers sent the plane’s captain to show the Israelis that they indeed possessed adequate explosives to destroy the plane. Levy, realizing that the only hope for him and the passengers (one of whom was his wife) lay in the hands of the Israelis, provided them with detailed about the hijackers’ whereabouts and the layout of the plane.
Armed with a better understanding of what they were up against, 16 commandos from the elite Sayeret Matkal unit disguised themselves as airplane mechanics. The team was commanded by current Defense Minister Ehud Barak. Other members of the team included current Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, former MK and Mossad chief Danny Yatom and former MK Uzi Dayan. The commandos approached the plane and pretended to examine the equipment on its underbelly.
Having successfully reached the plane without raising suspicion, the commandos quickly removed the Boeing 707’s emergency exit doors and immediately engaged the terrorists. “It was over quickly, in seconds,” former Sayeret Matkal soldier Eliezer Sacks recently recalled to The Jerusalem Post. Hours after being freed from the hijacked jetliner, one passenger told Channel 1, “We saw what appeared to be an ElAl crew approaching, within one minute [they] broke into plane. Within two minutes it was all over.”
Another passenger described the firefight, saying that first shots fired by the commandos hit one of the female hijackers in the rear of the plane who was gripping a hand grenade. The man, excitedly recalling the events to Channel 1, said he immediately grabbed the grenade and held the spoon down to stop it from exploding.
Two of the terrorists were killed in the raid and two others, females, were captured. One passenger was killed in the firefight and six passengers were wounded. Netanyahu was also shot during the operation, reportedly by friendly fire.
In a touching close to the story, 35 years after the Sabena crew and passengers were rescued, one of the commandos who took part in the raid returned Sabina Captain Reginald Levy’s captain hat to his daughter, Linda Lipschitz, then an editorial assistant at The Jerusalem Post. Levy, who remained in contact with Ehud Barak and President Shimon Peres for the remainder of his life, passed away last year at the age of 88.
Along with the Entebbe Operation four years later, the rescue of Sabena Flight 571 remains one of the most daring Sayeret Matkal operations known to the public. The operation has been studied and greatly praised by security forces the world over for its efficiency and success.
Steve Linde contributed to this report
Soon after realizing the gravity of the situation, English-born Captain Reginald Levy radioed ahead to Israel to notify authorities of the terrorist plot flying towards them at hundreds of miles per hour. Then-defense minister Moshe Dayan immediately began organizing a response, a perhaps far-fetched plan to rescue the passengers.
In initial contacts, the hijackers made their demands: They would free the passengers and crew in exchange for the release of over 300 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
After nightfall, hours after the plane had parked near Lod Airport’s lone terminal, Israeli forces carefully snuck under the plane to deflate its tires and disable its hydraulic systems. In an attempt to calm the terrorists after they discovered the plane had been disabled, Captain Levy kept them occupied through the night with constant chatter, discussing “everything under the sun … from navigation to sex,” he later recalled.
In the morning, the hijackers sent the plane’s captain to show the Israelis that they indeed possessed adequate explosives to destroy the plane. Levy, realizing that the only hope for him and the passengers (one of whom was his wife) lay in the hands of the Israelis, provided them with detailed about the hijackers’ whereabouts and the layout of the plane.
Armed with a better understanding of what they were up against, 16 commandos from the elite Sayeret Matkal unit disguised themselves as airplane mechanics. The team was commanded by current Defense Minister Ehud Barak. Other members of the team included current Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, former MK and Mossad chief Danny Yatom and former MK Uzi Dayan. The commandos approached the plane and pretended to examine the equipment on its underbelly.
Having successfully reached the plane without raising suspicion, the commandos quickly removed the Boeing 707’s emergency exit doors and immediately engaged the terrorists. “It was over quickly, in seconds,” former Sayeret Matkal soldier Eliezer Sacks recently recalled to The Jerusalem Post. Hours after being freed from the hijacked jetliner, one passenger told Channel 1, “We saw what appeared to be an ElAl crew approaching, within one minute [they] broke into plane. Within two minutes it was all over.”
Another passenger described the firefight, saying that first shots fired by the commandos hit one of the female hijackers in the rear of the plane who was gripping a hand grenade. The man, excitedly recalling the events to Channel 1, said he immediately grabbed the grenade and held the spoon down to stop it from exploding.
Two of the terrorists were killed in the raid and two others, females, were captured. One passenger was killed in the firefight and six passengers were wounded. Netanyahu was also shot during the operation, reportedly by friendly fire.
In a touching close to the story, 35 years after the Sabena crew and passengers were rescued, one of the commandos who took part in the raid returned Sabina Captain Reginald Levy’s captain hat to his daughter, Linda Lipschitz, then an editorial assistant at The Jerusalem Post. Levy, who remained in contact with Ehud Barak and President Shimon Peres for the remainder of his life, passed away last year at the age of 88.
Along with the Entebbe Operation four years later, the rescue of Sabena Flight 571 remains one of the most daring Sayeret Matkal operations known to the public. The operation has been studied and greatly praised by security forces the world over for its efficiency and success.
Steve Linde contributed to this report
Full details here together with two links to YouTube videos of the rescue:
This Week in History: Israeli commandos retake Flight 571
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Shoe Brushes.
After giving his morse demonstration my Father disappeared for a short while to reappear with a button stick and a cap band. He apologised for being so long but he couldn't find his housewife. Also he was sure his s.d. cap should have been with the slightly moth eaten cap band though the gilt on the badge was in pretty good order after being packed away for 38 years. Further it now came out that 3 of the four shoe brushes in daily use were of a similar vintage.
Pom Pax
Shoe Brushes
I can beat that. This 1950 vintage shoe brush, issued to me in 1951 is still in regular use - 63-years later!
Shoe Brushes
after being packed away for 38 years. Further it now came out that 3 of the four shoe brushes in daily use were of a similar vintage
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Shoe Brushes
IIRC my father's brushes had the same manufacturer's stamp. I expect they had about the same useful life but I never lived at home after leaving for National Service. And then when I visited in the sixties I had no need to use forthem........cavalry twill & Hush Puppies!
the same manufacturer's stamp
In his book, OUTBACK AIRMAN, Harry Purvis recounts how he went to Silloth to select two Dakotas for
The Sydney Morning Herald, to be used for newspaper deliveries from their base at Camden, just to the
SW of Sydney. That was towards the end of 1946. WG CDR Purvis says there were some 200 Dakotas
to choose from. By greasing the palm of the civilian in charge of disposals, he secured two of
best aircraft, KG 234 and KG 647. They went onto the Australian register as VH-SMH and VH-SMI,
respectively, arriving at Mascot on 14th Feb 1947.
VH-SMI is now VH-MIN , previously -
KG647
G-AIAZ
KG647
VH-SMI
Harry Purvis about to climb aboard. (SMH photo)
The Sydney Morning Herald, to be used for newspaper deliveries from their base at Camden, just to the
SW of Sydney. That was towards the end of 1946. WG CDR Purvis says there were some 200 Dakotas
to choose from. By greasing the palm of the civilian in charge of disposals, he secured two of
best aircraft, KG 234 and KG 647. They went onto the Australian register as VH-SMH and VH-SMI,
respectively, arriving at Mascot on 14th Feb 1947.
VH-SMI is now VH-MIN , previously -
13459
42-93536KG647
G-AIAZ
KG647
VH-SMI
Harry Purvis about to climb aboard. (SMH photo)
Last edited by Fantome; 4th Dec 2014 at 20:46.
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Echo Danny's post, no problem with the length of pages, I couldn't stop reading! Some very interesting posts but Reg's told a great story, from being what you might call one of the cogs in the wheel of bomber command to a very personal account of demobilisation and his struggles and successes. If it was a biography, it would of done very well. I wish the posts had been kept, just because it is a story nobody will be able to tell again.
Somebody once said, every time someone who has lived a full life dies, it's like burning a book of memories. I would of loved to have asked him some questions about it.
Somebody once said, every time someone who has lived a full life dies, it's like burning a book of memories. I would of loved to have asked him some questions about it.
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C-47s after WWII
Fantome,
I'm surprised that the UK managed to find the dollars to "buy out" so many of the C-47s from the Lend-Lease Agreement after the end of WWII. We were told that that our options for the Vultee Vengeances (Mk.III) we had were stark: (a) hand them back to the US if they wanted them (they didn't), (b) buy them (with dollars) if we wanted to keep them (we didn't) or (c) destroy them completely so that no part of them could come back on the market (so we did).
(It seems that the Russians built thousands of C-47 lookalikes: Douglas never saw a cent).
Note that we'd bought (for dollars) many of the Mks.I and II VVs supplied in the early part of the war (around $63,000 apiece IIRC). It would have been a good idea to keep a few as museum specimens, but the lot went for scrap.
One lone VV survives in the world: a Mk.IV at the Camden Museum, Narellan, NSW, Aus. (the Museum stoutly maintains that it is a Mk.I; the thing is manifestly a Mk.IV with a Mk.I number painted on it). Chugalug and I spent quite time a while back on this Thread ferreting this out (and seem to have convinced Wiki, which quietly acnowledges it to be a Mk.IV). Mks.I, II and III are A-31s in US parlance, Mk.IV is an A-35, a different animal which looks exactly the same as the others until you notice the single .50 Browning at the back which replaced the twin .303s on all the rest.
As for the Lend-Lease Regulations, Wiki tells me that:
"The terms of the agreement provided that the materiel was to be used until time for the return or destruction. In practice very little equipment was returned. Supplies that arrived after the termination date were sold to Britain at a large discount for £1.075 billion, using long-term loans from the United States. Canada operated a similar program called Mutual Aid that sent a loan of $1 billion and $3.4 billion in supplies and services to Britain and Allies. The United States did not charge for aid supplied under this legislation".
Danny.
I'm surprised that the UK managed to find the dollars to "buy out" so many of the C-47s from the Lend-Lease Agreement after the end of WWII. We were told that that our options for the Vultee Vengeances (Mk.III) we had were stark: (a) hand them back to the US if they wanted them (they didn't), (b) buy them (with dollars) if we wanted to keep them (we didn't) or (c) destroy them completely so that no part of them could come back on the market (so we did).
(It seems that the Russians built thousands of C-47 lookalikes: Douglas never saw a cent).
Note that we'd bought (for dollars) many of the Mks.I and II VVs supplied in the early part of the war (around $63,000 apiece IIRC). It would have been a good idea to keep a few as museum specimens, but the lot went for scrap.
One lone VV survives in the world: a Mk.IV at the Camden Museum, Narellan, NSW, Aus. (the Museum stoutly maintains that it is a Mk.I; the thing is manifestly a Mk.IV with a Mk.I number painted on it). Chugalug and I spent quite time a while back on this Thread ferreting this out (and seem to have convinced Wiki, which quietly acnowledges it to be a Mk.IV). Mks.I, II and III are A-31s in US parlance, Mk.IV is an A-35, a different animal which looks exactly the same as the others until you notice the single .50 Browning at the back which replaced the twin .303s on all the rest.
As for the Lend-Lease Regulations, Wiki tells me that:
"The terms of the agreement provided that the materiel was to be used until time for the return or destruction. In practice very little equipment was returned. Supplies that arrived after the termination date were sold to Britain at a large discount for £1.075 billion, using long-term loans from the United States. Canada operated a similar program called Mutual Aid that sent a loan of $1 billion and $3.4 billion in supplies and services to Britain and Allies. The United States did not charge for aid supplied under this legislation".
Danny.
Last edited by Danny42C; 5th Dec 2014 at 22:40. Reason: Error
Perhaps it's appropriate to consider the situation at the end of WW2, when most of our ploughshares had been turned in to swords. I'm no enthusiast for the rapid dismissal of the people, and equipment, who were the essential cogs in the road to victory, but, the politicians had a need to give the people some payback for their suffering throughout the conflict. I've been reading a few books recently relating to RAF operations in the later years of the war, they all, without exception bemoan the destruction (perhaps the conversion of swords to ploughshares) of the huge numbers of bombers and fighters, that were essential to fight the battle. Having been heavily involved with our RAF C130 fleet throughout my time in the RAF, I feel, like others, that we are losing something. Yet a new aircraft is entering service, and just like the latest recruit, must be looked upon as progress, and improvement. I'm sure having several examples of all the aircraft that served our nation so well, across the world, in WW2 would be desirable, but then, the world is not perfect, and never was. For that reason, the recording of their experiences by Cliff, Reg, Danny and others is priceless for generations to come. long may it continue, I'm sure it has my attention. I for one would like to hear more of the transition from WW2 to the jet age and the Cold War. There must be a wealth of personal experience out there that would enhance the pages of this veritable tome. Come on lads, send in your two penneth, whatever the line.
Smudge
Smudge
Last edited by smujsmith; 8th Dec 2014 at 20:17.
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Danny reflects upon a subject dear to all our hearts - money !
Seeing that this noble Thread has fallen into the doldrums of Page 2 of "Military Aviation" (although it is still attracting ca 1000 hits/day), and hoping that the Moderator is busy with his Christmas shopping, and has taken his eye off the ball, I make so bold as to put in this Post, the draft of which has been gathering dust for a twelvemonth on my Notepad.
When we were posted ('60) to RAF(G), Accounts gave us Dm @ 11.90/£ against a sterling cheque (nobody bothered with a Deutschmark bank account), and I think the Guilder over the border was around Fl10/£.
So the Dm was then worth 1/8.2d (purchasing power today approx £1), with the Dutch Fl slightly more. But when it came to coins, they were treated at parity; you could pay for (say) a 50-cent item in Holland with a Dm 1 coin, and get 50 cents change, if they had no pfennige in the till; if they had you got 50 of those instead. And vice versa in the German border towns. For otherwise all trade would come to a standstill while they were doing the sums (I saw my first pocket calculator only in '74 - a £42 "Sinclair" - supplied to me by C&E). Really, I suppose it all balanced out for them in the end. But it meant that we all walked round with a mixture of Dms, Pfennige, Guilden and Cents in our pockets all the time.
Soon after our arrival, on a Friday, they announced a slight depreciation of the exchange rate; from the Dm 11.90 to 11.70/£, to take effect from the Monday. This was a 1.7% drop, and in theory you could draw £1000 worth of Dm from Accts. (probably "kiting" a cheque to do it), and if you could get the Dm 11900 back into sterling and into your Bank before your cheque bounced, there was a £17 profit in it for you.
But IIRC, Accts would not exchange Dms for £s (or you could make a fortune with duty-cigarettes from the NAAFI), and I do not know any other way of doing it without incurring bank charges which would more than wipe out your profit. I never heard of anyone trying.
But it is sobering to think of this early step on the downward slide of sterling against the Deutchmark, which hit bottom on "Black Wednesday" in September'92 with Dm 2.77/£. Our inflation had been 4.3 times as bad as Germany's over the 32 years.
Inflation has been an important factor over my working lifetime of 1938 - 1986. I have read somewhere that there has been more inflation of the £ sterling since WW2 than in the preceding 600 years, and this may well be true. I should therefore like to put my ideas on this, and the social changes which have resulted from it, down on this Thread, although I realise that these matters are far removed from any direct relevance to it.
I venture to do this because (a) I'm comfortable writing for this audience, and hope that they are comfortable with me; (b) it has affected above all that generation whose sons provided the "Gainers of a RAF Pilot's Brevet in WW2" (and incurred such cruel losses in so doing); (c) any professional economic Forum would show me the door as I have no training or qualification whatever in the subject; and (d) the Moderators have been so accommodating to me over these past two years that I may hope that I may be allowed to "push the boundaries" one last time.
(Nevertheless, if they do decide to "blue-pencil" it, I shall accept their judgment without quibble).
The first thing is to settle a measure of Inflation. I rely on two Inflation Tables, one published in the "Sunday Times" * covering the years 1825 - 1982 (compiled by an "E.Barry Bowyer").# and one in the "Saturday Telegraph" * over 1891 - 1990 (compiler unknown). Both Tables are some years old now (exact dates unknown). (* or vice versa).
Note #: There are "Barry E. Bowyers" on Google - none sounded (2013) like an economist. Now they do !
Both allot an arbitary index of 100 to the £ in 1914, and work backward and forward from that year. They agree within quite narrow limits; any differences do not affect the general argument; for the purposes of calculation I've taken the mean of the figures for relevant dates. The first general observation is that WWI and WWII each roughly halved the value of the currency: (100 in 1914, 46.6 in 1918; 64.0 in 1938, 38.1 in 1946 - note the gradual deflation 46.6 to 64.0 between 1918 and 1938).
There are far more interesting figures which emerge, but they will have to wait till next time (if there is a next time).
Goodnight, all.
Danny42C
When we were posted ('60) to RAF(G), Accounts gave us Dm @ 11.90/£ against a sterling cheque (nobody bothered with a Deutschmark bank account), and I think the Guilder over the border was around Fl10/£.
So the Dm was then worth 1/8.2d (purchasing power today approx £1), with the Dutch Fl slightly more. But when it came to coins, they were treated at parity; you could pay for (say) a 50-cent item in Holland with a Dm 1 coin, and get 50 cents change, if they had no pfennige in the till; if they had you got 50 of those instead. And vice versa in the German border towns. For otherwise all trade would come to a standstill while they were doing the sums (I saw my first pocket calculator only in '74 - a £42 "Sinclair" - supplied to me by C&E). Really, I suppose it all balanced out for them in the end. But it meant that we all walked round with a mixture of Dms, Pfennige, Guilden and Cents in our pockets all the time.
Soon after our arrival, on a Friday, they announced a slight depreciation of the exchange rate; from the Dm 11.90 to 11.70/£, to take effect from the Monday. This was a 1.7% drop, and in theory you could draw £1000 worth of Dm from Accts. (probably "kiting" a cheque to do it), and if you could get the Dm 11900 back into sterling and into your Bank before your cheque bounced, there was a £17 profit in it for you.
But IIRC, Accts would not exchange Dms for £s (or you could make a fortune with duty-cigarettes from the NAAFI), and I do not know any other way of doing it without incurring bank charges which would more than wipe out your profit. I never heard of anyone trying.
But it is sobering to think of this early step on the downward slide of sterling against the Deutchmark, which hit bottom on "Black Wednesday" in September'92 with Dm 2.77/£. Our inflation had been 4.3 times as bad as Germany's over the 32 years.
Inflation has been an important factor over my working lifetime of 1938 - 1986. I have read somewhere that there has been more inflation of the £ sterling since WW2 than in the preceding 600 years, and this may well be true. I should therefore like to put my ideas on this, and the social changes which have resulted from it, down on this Thread, although I realise that these matters are far removed from any direct relevance to it.
I venture to do this because (a) I'm comfortable writing for this audience, and hope that they are comfortable with me; (b) it has affected above all that generation whose sons provided the "Gainers of a RAF Pilot's Brevet in WW2" (and incurred such cruel losses in so doing); (c) any professional economic Forum would show me the door as I have no training or qualification whatever in the subject; and (d) the Moderators have been so accommodating to me over these past two years that I may hope that I may be allowed to "push the boundaries" one last time.
(Nevertheless, if they do decide to "blue-pencil" it, I shall accept their judgment without quibble).
The first thing is to settle a measure of Inflation. I rely on two Inflation Tables, one published in the "Sunday Times" * covering the years 1825 - 1982 (compiled by an "E.Barry Bowyer").# and one in the "Saturday Telegraph" * over 1891 - 1990 (compiler unknown). Both Tables are some years old now (exact dates unknown). (* or vice versa).
Note #: There are "Barry E. Bowyers" on Google - none sounded (2013) like an economist. Now they do !
Both allot an arbitary index of 100 to the £ in 1914, and work backward and forward from that year. They agree within quite narrow limits; any differences do not affect the general argument; for the purposes of calculation I've taken the mean of the figures for relevant dates. The first general observation is that WWI and WWII each roughly halved the value of the currency: (100 in 1914, 46.6 in 1918; 64.0 in 1938, 38.1 in 1946 - note the gradual deflation 46.6 to 64.0 between 1918 and 1938).
There are far more interesting figures which emerge, but they will have to wait till next time (if there is a next time).
Goodnight, all.
Danny42C
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Edmunds Trainer
Danny42C You mentionned Wing Commander Morgan Rice Edmondes (Jim) from India in 1945. He was my grandfather and I read elsewhere that be invented the Edmunds Trainer, which does not surprise me in the slightest as he was always tinkering with something. I think he died in the late 70s.
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Wing Commander M.R. Edmondes (RIP)
busylady,
I have the most pleasant memories of your grandfather, of the times we worked together at the CDRE in Cannanore in '45, and when I met him again at Bomber Command HQ on my return in '49. I am sorry that he has left us, but then "he's just taken an earlier train", as we said.
My full story of those days is all on this Thread.
Danny42C
I have the most pleasant memories of your grandfather, of the times we worked together at the CDRE in Cannanore in '45, and when I met him again at Bomber Command HQ on my return in '49. I am sorry that he has left us, but then "he's just taken an earlier train", as we said.
My full story of those days is all on this Thread.
Danny42C
Danny, bravo! You take us into unexplored and fascinating territory with your thoughts on the sterling exchange rate post WW2 and the wider inflationary effects of war. I for one am with you all the way, because I think that these are the markers of human history and indeed of war.
There is an excellent book entitled 'The Downwave - Surviving the Second Great Depression' by Robert Beckman (ISBN 0 903852 38 1). Beckman was a broadcaster on LBC, a financial guru, and tipster, who had all the right answers but not necessarily in the right order. A summary here spells it out better than I can:-
The Downwave Revisited | (almost) always thinking
Nonetheless I found his basic theory, that human society is driven alternately by greed and fear, compelling. He has graphs of indicators against timelines telling you where you are in the cycle. Thus there are upwave wars and downwave wars. The first indicated by much flagwaving and martial music at the dockside as the troopships cast off, the second with a growing unease at the inevitably of the coming maelstrom that seemingly cannot be avoided. By contrast the first example always ends in great acrimony about what happened and why, the second merely with an overwhelming sense of relief that it is over. The most obvious examples in recent history being WW's 1 and 2 respectively.
Other indicators are to be found as well, one of the most interesting being women's fashions. In upwaves they become ever more revealing, necklines descend, hemlines rise, and the material becomes ever more diaphanous. In contrast downwaves witness a great covering up with many layers of material. Just think of the early and later Victorian eras.
Returning to inflation as per your post, he has a graph plotting 'The Price of Wheat in England: 1259-1975' ( the book was published in 1983). Calibrated in Shillings per Winchester Quarter (no, I don't know either) it violently lurches like some seismographic readout, starting from less than 3 to ending in excess of 285 over those seven centuries. He helpfully superimposes the various wars in between, starting with the hundred years one (1337-1453) and the War of the Roses (1455-1485), via the Napoleonic Wars (1795-1815), through to WW1, WW2, Korea and Vietnam.
Personally I preferred the price of beer as my personal indicator. Every time I went to Berlin (1973-88) it had risen further. Not in DMs of course, but in the £sd that they cost me.
There is an excellent book entitled 'The Downwave - Surviving the Second Great Depression' by Robert Beckman (ISBN 0 903852 38 1). Beckman was a broadcaster on LBC, a financial guru, and tipster, who had all the right answers but not necessarily in the right order. A summary here spells it out better than I can:-
The Downwave Revisited | (almost) always thinking
Nonetheless I found his basic theory, that human society is driven alternately by greed and fear, compelling. He has graphs of indicators against timelines telling you where you are in the cycle. Thus there are upwave wars and downwave wars. The first indicated by much flagwaving and martial music at the dockside as the troopships cast off, the second with a growing unease at the inevitably of the coming maelstrom that seemingly cannot be avoided. By contrast the first example always ends in great acrimony about what happened and why, the second merely with an overwhelming sense of relief that it is over. The most obvious examples in recent history being WW's 1 and 2 respectively.
Other indicators are to be found as well, one of the most interesting being women's fashions. In upwaves they become ever more revealing, necklines descend, hemlines rise, and the material becomes ever more diaphanous. In contrast downwaves witness a great covering up with many layers of material. Just think of the early and later Victorian eras.
Returning to inflation as per your post, he has a graph plotting 'The Price of Wheat in England: 1259-1975' ( the book was published in 1983). Calibrated in Shillings per Winchester Quarter (no, I don't know either) it violently lurches like some seismographic readout, starting from less than 3 to ending in excess of 285 over those seven centuries. He helpfully superimposes the various wars in between, starting with the hundred years one (1337-1453) and the War of the Roses (1455-1485), via the Napoleonic Wars (1795-1815), through to WW1, WW2, Korea and Vietnam.
Personally I preferred the price of beer as my personal indicator. Every time I went to Berlin (1973-88) it had risen further. Not in DMs of course, but in the £sd that they cost me.
Last edited by Chugalug2; 10th Dec 2014 at 11:06. Reason: One little letter
The Chinese have got it right. They have had inflation levels of between 5 and 13% over the last two decades. This year a pint and a packet of fags was still the same price as it was in 1994.
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Chugalug,
I looked up the link you gave me (many thanks !) and found it vastly interesting. I went back to my Inflation Tables and found that the currency steadily rose in value from 63.08 in 1825 to 105.00 in 1852: then fell back slowly to a plateau of 80-90 over 27 years until a sudden jump in 1879 to 102.50; this started a rapid and prolonged rise to a peak in 1903 of 122.50.
Then it declined slowly to the "Index" figure of 100.00 in 1914, followed by a precipitous fall to 40.00 in 1920.
My knowledge of 19th-century social change is not detailed enough to match this behaviour to individual events, but obviously the Industrial Revolution was the major factor in the period, and WW1 was clearly the cause of the catastrophic collapse from '14 to '20.
Beckmans' "Waves" have their mirror image in the behaviour of the currency: his "downs" do seem to reflect periods of appreciation, and vice versa.
The second part of my thesis will appear tomorrow, DV; and re your "Personally I preferrd the price of beer as my personal indicator": it also includes a note about an economist who chose the "Mars Bar" for that purpose (with surprisingly accurate result).
And I have a final coda about the occasional beneficient effect of inflation on the individual (me !)
Cheers, Danny.
EDIT: Of course, Fareastdriver's Chinese system is the best of all: freeze the prices of the essentials (booze 'n baccy) and let all the other commodities take the hit !
I looked up the link you gave me (many thanks !) and found it vastly interesting. I went back to my Inflation Tables and found that the currency steadily rose in value from 63.08 in 1825 to 105.00 in 1852: then fell back slowly to a plateau of 80-90 over 27 years until a sudden jump in 1879 to 102.50; this started a rapid and prolonged rise to a peak in 1903 of 122.50.
Then it declined slowly to the "Index" figure of 100.00 in 1914, followed by a precipitous fall to 40.00 in 1920.
My knowledge of 19th-century social change is not detailed enough to match this behaviour to individual events, but obviously the Industrial Revolution was the major factor in the period, and WW1 was clearly the cause of the catastrophic collapse from '14 to '20.
Beckmans' "Waves" have their mirror image in the behaviour of the currency: his "downs" do seem to reflect periods of appreciation, and vice versa.
The second part of my thesis will appear tomorrow, DV; and re your "Personally I preferrd the price of beer as my personal indicator": it also includes a note about an economist who chose the "Mars Bar" for that purpose (with surprisingly accurate result).
And I have a final coda about the occasional beneficient effect of inflation on the individual (me !)
Cheers, Danny.
EDIT: Of course, Fareastdriver's Chinese system is the best of all: freeze the prices of the essentials (booze 'n baccy) and let all the other commodities take the hit !
Last edited by Danny42C; 11th Dec 2014 at 08:29. Reason: Afterthought.
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Winchester Quarter
Chugalug -
'The Price of Wheat in England: 1259-1975' ( the book was published in 1983). Calibrated in Shillings per Winchester Quarter (no, I don't know either)
The Winchester Measure was a system of weights and measures used in the Kingdom of Wessex in Anglo-Saxon times, and was adopted by Henry VII as the English Standard
There were similar unusual measures here in Scotland. My father still got an allowance of oatmeal for his porridge well into the 1970's which was (if my memory is correct), a firlot every 3 months.
'The Price of Wheat in England: 1259-1975' ( the book was published in 1983). Calibrated in Shillings per Winchester Quarter (no, I don't know either)
The Winchester Measure was a system of weights and measures used in the Kingdom of Wessex in Anglo-Saxon times, and was adopted by Henry VII as the English Standard
There were similar unusual measures here in Scotland. My father still got an allowance of oatmeal for his porridge well into the 1970's which was (if my memory is correct), a firlot every 3 months.
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Here you are Danny
Exchange rates
The £ these days is a floating currency. Changes in the exchange rate are caused by the interaction of demand for the £ – who wants to buy it - and supply of the £ – who wants to sell it.
The demand for the £ (buying the £) comes from -
-UK goods and services sold (exported) overseas so foreign buyers sell their currency to buy the £ to buy the UK goods
-foreign investment into Britain eg Kraft sold $11.7 to buy £s to buy Cadburys
-speculators buy the £ if they think the value MIGHT rise so they can make a profit
-sometimes the Bank of England will buy £s
If any of these increase, the £ will increase in value (appreciate)
The supply of £s comes from the £ being sold on foreign exchange markets -
-goods and services from abroad are imported (bought by people/firms in the UK)- eg a UK car dealer sells the £ to buy Yen to buy Subarus from Japan. (UK tourists selling the £ to buy $ to go on holiday to the USA counts as an import as the £ is sold.)
-UK investment abroad eg UK firm RPC Group bought Promens in Iceland and would sell about £300m to do so
-speculators SELL the £ if they think the value MIGHT fall - so they can make a profit or avoid a loss
-sometimes the Bank of England will sell £s to buy other currencies for our currency reserves
If any of these increase, the £ will lose value (depreciate)
It is the interaction of the two. When the demand for sterling is high relative to supply, £ increases in value (appreciates). If the market supply exceeds demand for the £ there is a depreciation in the value of the £.
So what is happening? The interaction of ALL these-
-We are importing more than we are exporting so the value of the £ will fall (on balance).
-Our base interest rates is high, 0.5%, relative to the Eurozone, 0.15%, so international investors - wanting to take advantage of our high(!?) interest rate - will sell the Euro and buy the £, so causing its value to rise (on balance).
-If there is poor economic growth over several years currency traders will see economic weakness and so sell the £. If economic growth is generally improving they will buy the £ and the value will increase.
-If our inflation rate is generally higher than other competitor countries, over time our exports would be more expensive than theirs so we would become less competitive internationally. Over time we’d sell fewer exports and buy more imports from these relatively cheaper counties – so the £ would fall in value. Not important at the moment, but was in the past.
-Speculators may decide that the £ is going to increase in value, perhaps because they think the Bank of England will raise interest rates in the near future – if so speculators will buy the £ so increasing its value. If speculators think the £ will fall in value, perhaps because they think our Balance of Payments will get worse, they will sell the £ to buy a currency they think might increase in value. They do this beforehand to ‘gamble’ and to beat everyone else and hopefully make a profit.
The long term decline in the value of the £ since World War 2 has mostly been caused by Britain importing more than it exports over many years. Our higher inflation rate was a problem in the past, but not so much now.
How does it work? A high value of the £, eg $2 to £1 , means our exports are expensive in the USA and makes imports from the USA cheap here – which helps reduce UK inflation. However, it can mean some British exporting manufacturing firms go out of business – as happened in early 80s and in early 90s when the government used a high exchange rate to reduce inflation. It also happened in the early/mid 2000s and made more difficulties for British exporting firms.
A low value of the £, eg $1 to £1 , means our exports are cheap in the USA and makes imports from the USA expensive here – which helps improve the balance of payments (and also increases UK employment). However it only works if we have British based manufacturing firms. But a country can’t keep devaluing – eventually a currency would become too weak to buy necessities.
Fixed rates. When we had a ‘fixed’ value of the £, in the 1950s/60s and when we were in the ERM in the early 1990s, the government used interest rates to keep the value high and in an emergency would use our currency reserves to buy the £. In 1992 Speculators knew the value of £1 to Dm2.95 was too high and ‘gambled’ against the government – the government lost £3bn in a few days!
Businesses, governments and a few individuals trade foreign exchange all the time to finance their activities – plus speculators are speculating! Money moves at a terrific speed around the world’s financial systems – some is done automatically by IT systems. It is very difficult for governments to control it due to the technology and the speed.
Exchange rates
The £ these days is a floating currency. Changes in the exchange rate are caused by the interaction of demand for the £ – who wants to buy it - and supply of the £ – who wants to sell it.
The demand for the £ (buying the £) comes from -
-UK goods and services sold (exported) overseas so foreign buyers sell their currency to buy the £ to buy the UK goods
-foreign investment into Britain eg Kraft sold $11.7 to buy £s to buy Cadburys
-speculators buy the £ if they think the value MIGHT rise so they can make a profit
-sometimes the Bank of England will buy £s
If any of these increase, the £ will increase in value (appreciate)
The supply of £s comes from the £ being sold on foreign exchange markets -
-goods and services from abroad are imported (bought by people/firms in the UK)- eg a UK car dealer sells the £ to buy Yen to buy Subarus from Japan. (UK tourists selling the £ to buy $ to go on holiday to the USA counts as an import as the £ is sold.)
-UK investment abroad eg UK firm RPC Group bought Promens in Iceland and would sell about £300m to do so
-speculators SELL the £ if they think the value MIGHT fall - so they can make a profit or avoid a loss
-sometimes the Bank of England will sell £s to buy other currencies for our currency reserves
If any of these increase, the £ will lose value (depreciate)
It is the interaction of the two. When the demand for sterling is high relative to supply, £ increases in value (appreciates). If the market supply exceeds demand for the £ there is a depreciation in the value of the £.
So what is happening? The interaction of ALL these-
-We are importing more than we are exporting so the value of the £ will fall (on balance).
-Our base interest rates is high, 0.5%, relative to the Eurozone, 0.15%, so international investors - wanting to take advantage of our high(!?) interest rate - will sell the Euro and buy the £, so causing its value to rise (on balance).
-If there is poor economic growth over several years currency traders will see economic weakness and so sell the £. If economic growth is generally improving they will buy the £ and the value will increase.
-If our inflation rate is generally higher than other competitor countries, over time our exports would be more expensive than theirs so we would become less competitive internationally. Over time we’d sell fewer exports and buy more imports from these relatively cheaper counties – so the £ would fall in value. Not important at the moment, but was in the past.
-Speculators may decide that the £ is going to increase in value, perhaps because they think the Bank of England will raise interest rates in the near future – if so speculators will buy the £ so increasing its value. If speculators think the £ will fall in value, perhaps because they think our Balance of Payments will get worse, they will sell the £ to buy a currency they think might increase in value. They do this beforehand to ‘gamble’ and to beat everyone else and hopefully make a profit.
The long term decline in the value of the £ since World War 2 has mostly been caused by Britain importing more than it exports over many years. Our higher inflation rate was a problem in the past, but not so much now.
How does it work? A high value of the £, eg $2 to £1 , means our exports are expensive in the USA and makes imports from the USA cheap here – which helps reduce UK inflation. However, it can mean some British exporting manufacturing firms go out of business – as happened in early 80s and in early 90s when the government used a high exchange rate to reduce inflation. It also happened in the early/mid 2000s and made more difficulties for British exporting firms.
A low value of the £, eg $1 to £1 , means our exports are cheap in the USA and makes imports from the USA expensive here – which helps improve the balance of payments (and also increases UK employment). However it only works if we have British based manufacturing firms. But a country can’t keep devaluing – eventually a currency would become too weak to buy necessities.
Fixed rates. When we had a ‘fixed’ value of the £, in the 1950s/60s and when we were in the ERM in the early 1990s, the government used interest rates to keep the value high and in an emergency would use our currency reserves to buy the £. In 1992 Speculators knew the value of £1 to Dm2.95 was too high and ‘gambled’ against the government – the government lost £3bn in a few days!
Businesses, governments and a few individuals trade foreign exchange all the time to finance their activities – plus speculators are speculating! Money moves at a terrific speed around the world’s financial systems – some is done automatically by IT systems. It is very difficult for governments to control it due to the technology and the speed.
Oats
OffshoreSLF
Samuel Johnson's Dictionary of the English Language (1755) gives a definition for the word oats: "a grain, which in England is generally given to horses, but in Scotland supports the people."
- sorry couldn't resist it!
Samuel Johnson's Dictionary of the English Language (1755) gives a definition for the word oats: "a grain, which in England is generally given to horses, but in Scotland supports the people."
- sorry couldn't resist it!
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Danny makes Economics Simple.
So here is the following part to my #6550 of 9th inst:
If we take the figures for '38 and '72 (64.0 and 13.2), this represents an inflation "factor"of 4.8. From '72 to '13 it's easy. I simply divide my RAF pension for '13 by that on retirement in '72. This gives me a factor of 11.7. Multiply together, and you get an overall factor of 56.2 * for inflation over the whole period from '38 to today. So what ?
So this: I worked in the Ministry of Labour from '38 to '41, and IIRC, in '38 the average male wage in the UK was 1/4½d (£0.069) per hour. The D.Tel. recently quoted today's figure as £13.27/hr. Of course, today's chap doesn't get that. Assume a 40-hour week and a 50-week year, and a normal Personal Tax Allowance, and he gets only £11.32/hr after taxation - 164.7 times as much as in '38. Divide that by the 56.2, you get 2.93.
That means that the average man is almost three times as well off, in real terms, as was his grandfather seventy years ago (and Grandfather did not live in squalid poverty). There is no way of getting round this. There has probably never been such a rapid increase in personal real income in the recent history of our country, and no reason to expect it to continue.
There is, however, every reason to suppose it may go into reverse. It may well be that the next generation may have to be content with a real income of (say) only twice that of great-grandfather. There are already grumbles about "price increases outstripping wages". Anyway, we'll be well out of it before the roof comes in, so I'll pull-up the gangplank. Best of luck, you youngsters. Here endeth the Lesson of an Economic (Ne)Sciolist. [Lat: "Nescio" = I don't know"]
EDIT:
(Septuagenarians need not chuckle: any meaningful cull of the overblown Welfare Bill must start with taking the axe to Pensions).
(Google):
"The growing size of the welfare state in the UK | Economics Help
www.economicshelp.org/.../the-growing-size-of-the-welfare-state-in-the-uk/?CachedSimilar
7 Feb 2013 ..."
"The welfare state typically includes all benefit payments (pensions, ... state
pensions cost £74bn making state pensions the largest component of social ..."
Over the period '48 to '12, the Benefits increased 472 times (source above);
Inflation increased by a factor of 31.34. (£ values: ['48)] 32.91; ['12] 1.05).
Therefore Benefits increased 15.06 times as fast as Inflation over the period (although we must remember that real wages were also doing so - but at a much lower rate).
The country can't afford it (that and Defence as well !)
All this has been exacerbated by Politicians of all colours seeking a quick fix from the banknote printing presses for electoral gain (and massaging away the National Debt). In medieval times, they called it "Debasing the Currency" and they (quite rightly) hanged you for it. Now it's called "Quantitative Easing", and all the fashion these days. Of course, this is just a fancy name for the policy that destroyed the Weimar republic (leading indirectly to the rise of Hitler), that ruined Mugabe's Zimbabwe in recent years, and which the late President Reagan rightly described as "Voodoo Economics".
Notes:
* Some years ago, an ingenious economist sought a constant store of value over the years, and hit on the humble "Mars Bar". In my youth, this succulent delicacy cost 2d of my pocket money, £1/120 or £0.0083. On my last trip to the local shop, it's on the shelf at 60p. So it costs £0.60 ?... No it doesn't, it costs £0.50 - the rest is VAT. The inflation factor is 60.2 - we're still in the same ballpark.
# You may object that I've ignored National Insurance in the calculation (grandfather only paid something like an insignificant 10d a week). But think of this: his visit to a Doctor then cost him 5/- (3.6 hour's work) - that's £40 now ! (If the Doctor came to him: 7/6 - half as much again) or £60 today). He had to think seriously about calling the Doctor in. That more than offsets the NI his grandson has to pay today.
Goodnight, all.
Danny42C.
EDIT:,
PS: Viola, an excellent dissertation on the "mechanical" factors acting on Inflation, but I am only interested in its social impact..D.
Warmtoast and Union Jack, the Scots are queer cattle (but then, they're only the Irish who couldn't swim when the Romans came !) Ware incoming !...D.
If we take the figures for '38 and '72 (64.0 and 13.2), this represents an inflation "factor"of 4.8. From '72 to '13 it's easy. I simply divide my RAF pension for '13 by that on retirement in '72. This gives me a factor of 11.7. Multiply together, and you get an overall factor of 56.2 * for inflation over the whole period from '38 to today. So what ?
So this: I worked in the Ministry of Labour from '38 to '41, and IIRC, in '38 the average male wage in the UK was 1/4½d (£0.069) per hour. The D.Tel. recently quoted today's figure as £13.27/hr. Of course, today's chap doesn't get that. Assume a 40-hour week and a 50-week year, and a normal Personal Tax Allowance, and he gets only £11.32/hr after taxation - 164.7 times as much as in '38. Divide that by the 56.2, you get 2.93.
That means that the average man is almost three times as well off, in real terms, as was his grandfather seventy years ago (and Grandfather did not live in squalid poverty). There is no way of getting round this. There has probably never been such a rapid increase in personal real income in the recent history of our country, and no reason to expect it to continue.
There is, however, every reason to suppose it may go into reverse. It may well be that the next generation may have to be content with a real income of (say) only twice that of great-grandfather. There are already grumbles about "price increases outstripping wages". Anyway, we'll be well out of it before the roof comes in, so I'll pull-up the gangplank. Best of luck, you youngsters. Here endeth the Lesson of an Economic (Ne)Sciolist. [Lat: "Nescio" = I don't know"]
EDIT:
(Septuagenarians need not chuckle: any meaningful cull of the overblown Welfare Bill must start with taking the axe to Pensions).
(Google):
"The growing size of the welfare state in the UK | Economics Help
www.economicshelp.org/.../the-growing-size-of-the-welfare-state-in-the-uk/?CachedSimilar
7 Feb 2013 ..."
"The welfare state typically includes all benefit payments (pensions, ... state
pensions cost £74bn making state pensions the largest component of social ..."
Over the period '48 to '12, the Benefits increased 472 times (source above);
Inflation increased by a factor of 31.34. (£ values: ['48)] 32.91; ['12] 1.05).
Therefore Benefits increased 15.06 times as fast as Inflation over the period (although we must remember that real wages were also doing so - but at a much lower rate).
The country can't afford it (that and Defence as well !)
All this has been exacerbated by Politicians of all colours seeking a quick fix from the banknote printing presses for electoral gain (and massaging away the National Debt). In medieval times, they called it "Debasing the Currency" and they (quite rightly) hanged you for it. Now it's called "Quantitative Easing", and all the fashion these days. Of course, this is just a fancy name for the policy that destroyed the Weimar republic (leading indirectly to the rise of Hitler), that ruined Mugabe's Zimbabwe in recent years, and which the late President Reagan rightly described as "Voodoo Economics".
Notes:
* Some years ago, an ingenious economist sought a constant store of value over the years, and hit on the humble "Mars Bar". In my youth, this succulent delicacy cost 2d of my pocket money, £1/120 or £0.0083. On my last trip to the local shop, it's on the shelf at 60p. So it costs £0.60 ?... No it doesn't, it costs £0.50 - the rest is VAT. The inflation factor is 60.2 - we're still in the same ballpark.
# You may object that I've ignored National Insurance in the calculation (grandfather only paid something like an insignificant 10d a week). But think of this: his visit to a Doctor then cost him 5/- (3.6 hour's work) - that's £40 now ! (If the Doctor came to him: 7/6 - half as much again) or £60 today). He had to think seriously about calling the Doctor in. That more than offsets the NI his grandson has to pay today.
Goodnight, all.
Danny42C.
EDIT:,
PS: Viola, an excellent dissertation on the "mechanical" factors acting on Inflation, but I am only interested in its social impact..D.
Warmtoast and Union Jack, the Scots are queer cattle (but then, they're only the Irish who couldn't swim when the Romans came !) Ware incoming !...D.
Last edited by Danny42C; 13th Dec 2014 at 20:32. Reason: Additional Text