Why the second half dip?
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Why the second half dip?
To be able to continue the “super” bashing (
)without thread creep, let me open this new one:
The very suspicious second half dip in revenue might have two very real reasons, explaining the very obvious book-cooking.
1. The cousins down the road have given some huge securities as to not have Dubai go down the drain five years ago. I believe HH A could prevent EK from being given away as a security asset, but I believe that any big profit originating from that same EK group might have to be shared a little bit more unequally than the M-family would have appreciated. After the boasting of the first half profit, I guess a brief call on HH mobile told him to rethink the final spreadsheet. The envious N-family would definitely want their share of the profit and definitely never share profits with the slaves up north! Bonuses should come from their oh-so superiour outfit for their own slaves and that’s it.
2. I start to believe, that EK has ripped off a chunk too big to chew with its “supers”. You can get the numbers on passengers, you can even ellbow out the competition on certain routes and airports, but what apparently does not show up in sufficient numbers, is the high yield passenger. At the same time EK fell into the same trap with Airbus as with the 340. The promised economy just does not materialise. The 380 has a very thin and steep profitability bell-curve and EK finds itself outside of it most of the time. A big and heavy 20-wheeler quickly eats into yield when operated
outside of its comfort zone.
No one wants to see or admit to the elephant in the room, the mantra seems to be: “let’s continue the game, with time and more supers it will pay off, we’ll suffocate the competition”.
It’s like the gambler at the roulette table who continues to set on red, doubling his bid after each loss, telling himself that eventually red will pop up and he will get back his investment. This works until eventually red wins, or the gambler runs out of money.
During all that time the profits go to mandatory repay of debt, the surplus down to the southern relatives, but the employees get nothing but unpaid overtime and no compensation for inflation.
Comments?
)without thread creep, let me open this new one:The very suspicious second half dip in revenue might have two very real reasons, explaining the very obvious book-cooking.
1. The cousins down the road have given some huge securities as to not have Dubai go down the drain five years ago. I believe HH A could prevent EK from being given away as a security asset, but I believe that any big profit originating from that same EK group might have to be shared a little bit more unequally than the M-family would have appreciated. After the boasting of the first half profit, I guess a brief call on HH mobile told him to rethink the final spreadsheet. The envious N-family would definitely want their share of the profit and definitely never share profits with the slaves up north! Bonuses should come from their oh-so superiour outfit for their own slaves and that’s it.
2. I start to believe, that EK has ripped off a chunk too big to chew with its “supers”. You can get the numbers on passengers, you can even ellbow out the competition on certain routes and airports, but what apparently does not show up in sufficient numbers, is the high yield passenger. At the same time EK fell into the same trap with Airbus as with the 340. The promised economy just does not materialise. The 380 has a very thin and steep profitability bell-curve and EK finds itself outside of it most of the time. A big and heavy 20-wheeler quickly eats into yield when operated
outside of its comfort zone.
No one wants to see or admit to the elephant in the room, the mantra seems to be: “let’s continue the game, with time and more supers it will pay off, we’ll suffocate the competition”.
It’s like the gambler at the roulette table who continues to set on red, doubling his bid after each loss, telling himself that eventually red will pop up and he will get back his investment. This works until eventually red wins, or the gambler runs out of money.
During all that time the profits go to mandatory repay of debt, the surplus down to the southern relatives, but the employees get nothing but unpaid overtime and no compensation for inflation.
Comments?
Last edited by glofish; 17th May 2013 at 14:45.
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Pure pure speculation on my part, but based on testimony from various station managers at various points regarding the 380 and its apparent economics.
The airframe when introduced to new destinations certainly has the wow factor, a great many bums on seats are encouraged to pay a premium over and above the going rate for a seat on the other legacy type. Over time as the wow factor recedes, the bum becomes less enamoured with the wow, and more concerned with the how much. Given enough time (we are a year or so into this cycle) the bum actively seeks the legacy price, rather than the wow price.
Given enough time, there is no more premium paid and it becomes a struggle to fill seats from less slot or capacity constrained ports, so much so in fact that discounted tickets account for a large % of passengers carried, and the large premium cabin is populated by a great many free upgrades.
Meanwhile the rapid rate of expansion ensures a dilution of service levels and is compounded by the perception from staff of a punitive management culture that disengages individuals and creates customer service staff who are neither willing, capable or empowered to resolve day to day issues that add value to the companies brand.
The airframe when introduced to new destinations certainly has the wow factor, a great many bums on seats are encouraged to pay a premium over and above the going rate for a seat on the other legacy type. Over time as the wow factor recedes, the bum becomes less enamoured with the wow, and more concerned with the how much. Given enough time (we are a year or so into this cycle) the bum actively seeks the legacy price, rather than the wow price.
Given enough time, there is no more premium paid and it becomes a struggle to fill seats from less slot or capacity constrained ports, so much so in fact that discounted tickets account for a large % of passengers carried, and the large premium cabin is populated by a great many free upgrades.
Meanwhile the rapid rate of expansion ensures a dilution of service levels and is compounded by the perception from staff of a punitive management culture that disengages individuals and creates customer service staff who are neither willing, capable or empowered to resolve day to day issues that add value to the companies brand.
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Originally Posted by lhr rain
The YYZ station manager said she made more money on the 777 than the 380, speculation aside.
Great that station manageress' dictate the PS
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Originally Posted by FalconEasyDriver
Pure pure speculation on my part, but based on testimony from various station managers at various points regarding the 380 and its apparent economics.
The airframe when introduced to new destinations certainly has the wow factor, a great many bums on seats are encouraged to pay a premium over and above the going rate for a seat on the other legacy type. Over time as the wow factor recedes, the bum becomes less enamoured with the wow, and more concerned with the how much. Given enough time (we are a year or so into this cycle) the bum actively seeks the legacy price, rather than the wow price.
Given enough time, there is no more premium paid and it becomes a struggle to fill seats from less slot or capacity constrained ports, so much so in fact that discounted tickets account for a large % of passengers carried, and the large premium cabin is populated by a great many free upgrades.
Meanwhile the rapid rate of expansion ensures a dilution of service levels and is compounded by the perception from staff of a punitive management culture that disengages individuals and creates customer service staff who are neither willing, capable or empowered to resolve day to day issues that add value to the companies brand.
The airframe when introduced to new destinations certainly has the wow factor, a great many bums on seats are encouraged to pay a premium over and above the going rate for a seat on the other legacy type. Over time as the wow factor recedes, the bum becomes less enamoured with the wow, and more concerned with the how much. Given enough time (we are a year or so into this cycle) the bum actively seeks the legacy price, rather than the wow price.
Given enough time, there is no more premium paid and it becomes a struggle to fill seats from less slot or capacity constrained ports, so much so in fact that discounted tickets account for a large % of passengers carried, and the large premium cabin is populated by a great many free upgrades.
Meanwhile the rapid rate of expansion ensures a dilution of service levels and is compounded by the perception from staff of a punitive management culture that disengages individuals and creates customer service staff who are neither willing, capable or empowered to resolve day to day issues that add value to the companies brand.
Get over it Boeing people. You ARE destined to do DOH, BAH, MCT, IKA, KHI turnarounds and fewer layovers. I did see that BNE is going 'Super' from 1st of October too
I wonder why?
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I always love an argument with people who can't read...
Hmmmm define a slot, capacity constrained airport?
Yep, thought so.....unable to read
Given enough time, there is no more premium paid and it becomes a struggle to fill seats from less slot or capacity constrained ports
Funny that. Apollo showing LHR flights booked to 650 plus on EK1 today, and overbooked by at least 50 every other LHR flight
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Only way to compare apples to apples is, what are the ASM/ASK costs and the reliability rates. This includes possible lost revenue due to maintance issues with regard to extra inspections, etc. Nothing else matters, except maybe extra profit made from cargo carried.
Of course we can make a connection to what our profit shares, pay raises, and increase productivity levels have been since the beginning of the 380 operation in 2009. Cause and effect? Whose to say, you be the judge.
Of course we can make a connection to what our profit shares, pay raises, and increase productivity levels have been since the beginning of the 380 operation in 2009. Cause and effect? Whose to say, you be the judge.
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Originally Posted by Tangouniform
Of course we can make a connection to what our profit shares, pay raises, and increase productivity levels have been since the beginning of the 380 operation in 2009. Cause and effect? Whose to say, you be the judge.
And it started ops 2008. Not 2009........
Last edited by White Knight; 18th May 2013 at 17:44.
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Ha Ha, you're right about the beginning of the operation. We can say that a few big busses didn't have much of an affect on us....but once into double figures. Only time will tell. Since you, WK, seem to be all knowing, perhaps you can help us with the Seat KMs cost of the two aircraft and the reliability rate of the two. Honestly, I would love to know. Maybe it's a closely held secret. Since the investment and "face" have already been made, it really doesn't matter except in the financial future of the airline. Hell, it only took 20 years for airlines to realise the inefficiency of the RJ operation.
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Not sure TU why you keep bringing up 'reliability'? 380 is very reliable and has great dispatch percentage. Better than the early days of 777. And certainly far better than the 'Dreamliner' which you no doubt get all excited about
Been sharing too many beers with 'Dropp' recently?
Really. You girls on the Boeing have a serious inferiority complex
Been sharing too many beers with 'Dropp' recently?
Really. You girls on the Boeing have a serious inferiority complex
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I see White Knight the Dick is back. Where were you WK? I thought with all of your office duties you would be too busy trying to save the company but I guess not.
Just because an airplane is full doesn't mean they made money on it. What were they charging for the tickets, how much freight were they carrying, and a multiple of other factors.
One thing for sure is the 380 pilots are getting the same pay for carrying about 150 more passengers (42 more premium) as the 777 and even the A-310 pilots and that helps big time to the bottom line.
WK really is a company guy.
Just because an airplane is full doesn't mean they made money on it. What were they charging for the tickets, how much freight were they carrying, and a multiple of other factors.
One thing for sure is the 380 pilots are getting the same pay for carrying about 150 more passengers (42 more premium) as the 777 and even the A-310 pilots and that helps big time to the bottom line.
WK really is a company guy.
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Not sure if he is a company guy but he definitely needs to be pharmacology guy. Check out the number of semi-coherent posts over the last few hours.
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First WK, who cares what the 787 is or isn't. We're not getting them and they have no affect on us. Frankly, I think plastic airplanes in the long run are going to be more problematic than they're worth.
But honestly, find us some numbers on the difference in our seat km/mile costs between the two aircraft and the dispatch reliability over the last 24 months or so. The pig's been around for five years or so, most glitches (other than cracking wings) should have been known or dealt with by now. Rides nice, though, I'll give you that. But Boeing guys just think that the product they fly is more efficient and more reliable for the airline. Prove us wrong. We wait with with anticipation the announcement of direct to the US West coast.
But honestly, find us some numbers on the difference in our seat km/mile costs between the two aircraft and the dispatch reliability over the last 24 months or so. The pig's been around for five years or so, most glitches (other than cracking wings) should have been known or dealt with by now. Rides nice, though, I'll give you that. But Boeing guys just think that the product they fly is more efficient and more reliable for the airline. Prove us wrong. We wait with with anticipation the announcement of direct to the US West coast.
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It’s a fact that the 380 burns more fuel per kg transported, it takes a second grader to figure that out. The stipulation that its yield however is higher, is hard to follow up for us, as only the company can put together the entire cost. Now if you believe anything the company says, good on you!
The debate among us about the performance of the 380 is therefore somewhat futile, however where there is smoke, there is fire. Mechanics moan about the reliabilty of the whale, but what do they know … company statistics show it on par with the others. Station managers would prefer T7’s (ask them down under), more freight, less costly upgrades, but what do they know, they’re only here to reiterate his masters voice with no own say, but all the blame to take when numbers talk the opposite (LHR). Pilots compare flight plans, but what do they know, they need head wobbling and untrained office clerks to compose statcon fuel because they are considered uncapable of making sound fuel decisions.
So let’s believe the company song about the 380.
As I often said, it would have its range of operation, it's a fascinating flying piece of metal. If it could fly the subcontinental and far eastern trunk routes, with a high capacity configuration, we would talk business. But the configuration EK chose is not adapted to actual passenger wallet-behaviour, the routes actually flown not exactly suited to its performance.
Maybe the increase in passenger numbers allowes more routes for the hub, maybe it attracts more passengers. It might even increase the tourism revenue of the emirate, generate more duty free sales, more revenue for Dnata and allowes a greater footprint of the company worldwide (at least on carbon).
Maybe looking at the whole picture, it might be a good thing for the big M. But looking at the microcosm that concerns me as a pilot, it is not, because the small entity called flight operations has become more expensive and less profitable, therefore our income will be adapted to make numbers stick.
That’s why I don’t like the whale and not because it’s ugly and I don’t fly it and other guys do. If they want to defend it because they like it, then let’s continue the funny mudslinging, pilots always do that, it’s normal, fun and inoffensive. But if some of us pretend that it costs us income and such a statement is hard to prove, then simply accept that it’s just as hard to prove the opposite.
But again: where there’s smoke, there’s fire and just as a sideline, there’s no smoke with 330’ies and T7’s, but there was a lot with the initially highly praised 340’ies and now the even more praised whale. What does that tell us?
The debate among us about the performance of the 380 is therefore somewhat futile, however where there is smoke, there is fire. Mechanics moan about the reliabilty of the whale, but what do they know … company statistics show it on par with the others. Station managers would prefer T7’s (ask them down under), more freight, less costly upgrades, but what do they know, they’re only here to reiterate his masters voice with no own say, but all the blame to take when numbers talk the opposite (LHR). Pilots compare flight plans, but what do they know, they need head wobbling and untrained office clerks to compose statcon fuel because they are considered uncapable of making sound fuel decisions.
So let’s believe the company song about the 380.
As I often said, it would have its range of operation, it's a fascinating flying piece of metal. If it could fly the subcontinental and far eastern trunk routes, with a high capacity configuration, we would talk business. But the configuration EK chose is not adapted to actual passenger wallet-behaviour, the routes actually flown not exactly suited to its performance.
Maybe the increase in passenger numbers allowes more routes for the hub, maybe it attracts more passengers. It might even increase the tourism revenue of the emirate, generate more duty free sales, more revenue for Dnata and allowes a greater footprint of the company worldwide (at least on carbon).
Maybe looking at the whole picture, it might be a good thing for the big M. But looking at the microcosm that concerns me as a pilot, it is not, because the small entity called flight operations has become more expensive and less profitable, therefore our income will be adapted to make numbers stick.
That’s why I don’t like the whale and not because it’s ugly and I don’t fly it and other guys do. If they want to defend it because they like it, then let’s continue the funny mudslinging, pilots always do that, it’s normal, fun and inoffensive. But if some of us pretend that it costs us income and such a statement is hard to prove, then simply accept that it’s just as hard to prove the opposite.
But again: where there’s smoke, there’s fire and just as a sideline, there’s no smoke with 330’ies and T7’s, but there was a lot with the initially highly praised 340’ies and now the even more praised whale. What does that tell us?