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Is war likely with Iran? Consequences for EK?

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Is war likely with Iran? Consequences for EK?

Old 2nd Mar 2012, 23:43
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Is war likely with Iran? Consequences for EK?

Is Obama giving in to Israeli pressure over Iran? — RT

Is Obama giving in to Israeli pressure over Iran?
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Published: 02 March, 2012, 21:13

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks with US President Barack Obama (AFP Photo / Mandel Ngan)
Israel vs Iran
TAGS: Meeting, Military, Iran, USA, Israel, War
When US President Barack Obama and Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meet on Monday, neither heads of state will have to worry too much about plotting their war on Iran. Pentagon officials are saying that those wheels are already in motion.
After wrapping up a speech before the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) this weekend, President Obama will spend Monday meeting with PM Netanyahu, and there is little doubt that the duo will be disputing the whens, whats and hows of a joint strike on Iran. It’s been a matter of debate for months now as rumors continue to abound over an alleged nuclear warhead being developed at a secret Iranian facility. With that meeting marking perhaps the last time the two mega leaders will come together before an eventual and almost certain attack, officials from within the walls of the US Defense Department headquarters report that the blueprints for the battle are already in the works.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, Pentagon sources this week say that both Washington and Jerusalem defense officials have already begun discussions on how the countries will work in cooperation with one another should they follow through with an attack.
Pentagon officials tell Israel’s Debka news outlet that US Defense Department Secretary Leon Panetta and his Israeli counterpart, Ehud Barak, met in Washington on Thursday of this week to discuss the dynamics between the two country’s militaries. The US has been hesitant to formally endorse a strike on Iran, though has offered their support to Israel throughout the ordeal. Despite a long-lasting friendship between the two, Israel has in recent weeks condemned America over their hesitance, with Netanyahu reported to have called a top-ranking US general a “servant of Iran” last week. While the two nations have not been seeing exactly eye-to-eye as of late, Barak and Panetta are believed to be orchestrating plans that will put both nations officially in cahoots in terms of taking on Iran.
According to Pentagon sources speaking to Debka, both nations are currently considering military options that will begin in the not-so-distant future. Those plans, they report, will call for the US “providing refueling for Israeli planes and include attacking the pillars of the clerical regime,” which they add are comprised of “the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and its elite Qods Force, regular Iranian military bases and the Ministry of Intelligence and Security.”
With Obama preparing to go before the AIPAC conference this weekend, there are already talks that the United States’ commander-in-chief is considering giving in to Israeli pressure to align against Iran with force, fearing what repercussions could come on Election Day should he walk. Obama has been hesitant to throw his weight behind any actual endorsements of war so far — and much to the chagrin of Israel — but this week’s meeting between Barak and Panetta suggest that Obama may soon crack. While the Iranian issue will no doubt be discussed during Monday’s meeting with Netanyahu, the two will now have time beforehand to mull over details divulged between the two defense heads.
Also on Thursday, White House press secretary Jay Carney told reporters, “I think we have been clear about this – that any (Israeli) military action in that region threatens greater instability in the region, because Iran borders both Afghanistan and Iraq – we have civilian personnel in Iraq, we have military personnel as well as civilians in Afghanistan,” while also insisting that America will, for the time being, “pursue the diplomatic path that we’ve taken, combined with very aggressive sanctions.”
Speaking to RT’s Alyona Minkovski that same day, Retired Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson warned that “sanctions as diplomacy won’t work.”
In an interview published Friday with The Atlantic, President Obama himself adds that he has never ruled out any war on Iran. Should those sanctions fail, the US will be ready to respond with force.
"I think that the Israeli government recognizes that, as president of the United States, I don't bluff," reveals Obama in his latest sit-down. "I also don't, as a matter of sound policy, go around advertising exactly what our intentions are. But (both) governments recognize that when the United States says it is unacceptable for Iran to have a nuclear weapon, we mean what we say."
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Old 3rd Mar 2012, 04:06
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So what??? Been here in the "gulf" for two decades and a bit, they all been running their mouths constantly, wish they would all shut up and let life go on..war?? doubt it.....
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Old 3rd Mar 2012, 09:22
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I disagree, IB. Yes, it's true, "they all run their mouths constantly" around here, so take that with a grain of salt.
However, if you look at the political machinations...is stopping the purchase of Iranian oil by Europe a 'sanction' or a 'preparation'?...BBC reported that the Isreali parliament was debating whether 'covert activities' (killing scientists and stuxnet-type things) were successfully interdicting, or whether stronger measures were required, agreeing unanimously that it was the latter.....congress debated last week whether Israel's request for 200 bunker buster weapons (gee, I wonder what they would be for?) should be granted....
Then there is the real stuff- noticed any 'activity' as you've been pottering around the gulf lately? The second carrier has been here for a few weeks now- when the third arrives, you'll have your answer.
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Old 3rd Mar 2012, 09:37
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Iran: Countries used for attack will be targets

gulfnews : Iran: Countries used for attack will be targets

Tehran vows to strike neighbours hosting hostile forces
APPublished: 00:00 February 7, 2012

TehranIran will target any country from where an attack against it is staged, a senior Guard commander warned on Sunday, the latest Iranian threat tied to growing tensions over its nuclear programme and Western sanctions.
General Hussain Salami, deputy commander of the elite Revolutionary Guard, Iran's most powerful military force, did not elaborate. His comments appeared to be a warning to Iran's neighbours not to let their territory or airspace be used as a base for an attack.

"Any place where enemy offensive operations against the Islamic Republic of Iran originate will be the target of a reciprocal attack by the Guard's fighting units," the semi-official Fars news agency quoted Salami as saying.
The Revolutionary Guard started manoeuvres in the country's south on Saturday following naval exercises near the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil export route, additional muscle flexing by Iran to ward off the prospect of a military strike against its nuclear facilities. Iran has threatened to close off the strait if Western sanctions limit Iranian oil exports.

The US and its Western allies charge Iran is producing atomic weapons. Iran says itsI programme is meant to produce fuel for future nuclear power reactors and medical radioisotopes needed for cancer patients.
Israel and the US have said all options are open, including military action, if Iran continues with its programme.
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Old 3rd Mar 2012, 13:13
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United Arab Emirates - dKosopedia

US Military Bases

The U.S. Military has few bases in the UAE. Two of the most important are Al Dhafra air base and Jebel Ali port. Al Dhafra supports fighters and aerial refueling aircraft, in addition to occassional U-2 and Global Hawk reconnaissance flights. Meanwhile, the Navy makes about 200 calls a year at Jebel Ali port. The UAE is considered as one one of the main allies in the war against terrorism.

U.S., UAE reach deal for missile-defense system - CNN

U.S., UAE reach deal for missile-defense system

December 30, 2011|By the CNN Wire Staff

The United States and the United Arab Emirates have signed a deal for a missile-defense system in the Persian Gulf country, the Pentagon said Friday.
The $3.48 billion agreement was signed December 25, according to press secretary George Little. It was not clear why the deal was announced Friday.
The vital Strait of Hormuz separates the UAE and Iran. The Obama administration said Iran has been "saber-rattling" over its threat to block the Strait.

The pact will deliver two anti-missile batteries, 96 missiles, radars, training and logistics to the UAE, the Pentagon said.
"Acquisition of this critical defense system will bolster the UAE's air and missile-defense capability and enhance the already robust ballistic missile-defense cooperation between the United States and the UAE," the Pentagon said.
The two countries "enjoy a strong bilateral defense relationship, driven by common interests in a secure and stable Gulf region," Little said in a statement.
Raytheon Company said it will provide two radars and services through 2018 to the country. "This $582.5 million contract for the radars is part of the first sale of THAAD missile systems to an international customer," it said in a statement.


The questions are:

1) Should the US or Israel attack Iran as looks likely over next 3-6 months, will the UAE become a target due to assisting the US by use of ports and airbases?

2) What effect would this have on the Emirates/Etihad/Qatar bases? Would operations be suspended?

3) For those with families, what preperations if any are considered wise should the perhaps inevitable break out whilst you are down route?
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Old 3rd Mar 2012, 15:15
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IMHO the Guards bluster is just that, bluster. Based primarily on the fact that, what would they use other than plastic boats as most if not all other assets will get walloped.

Though interstingly the other day talking to Tehran ATC the controller had real problems pronouncing his Rs and Ls..................
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Old 3rd Mar 2012, 15:20
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Good and valid query.

Obviously this is all conjecture and projectionist:

Yes the Israelis will hit Iran if they don't stop - which is hard to imagine them stopping.

Effect on Gulf? Pretty severe for about a year...but probably no worse than GFC of 2008.

Perception of safety traveling through area will be affected...Turkish to make a good run of it as a result.

Serious detrimental effect on real estate prices again probable.

Best case: US/coalition of the willing - air war with regime collapse in Tehran followed by Arab spring like awakening in Iran - 10 tear recovery for Iran itself, the Gulf returns quickly to normality

Worst case: 5th fleet hit in Bahrain, Minhad here and the base in Doha, rockets at cities throughout Israel, straits of Hormuz blocked....and that would destroy the tourism industry in Dubai for two years.

The interesting thing is there would be jobs for a lot of guys in East Asia as crises stay regional more so than in past due to monster global economy finding ways around obstacles.

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Old 3rd Mar 2012, 15:47
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Thanks for the offer EK but....

If there was ever a thread on PPRuNe to deter anyone from taking the job with EK, this oughta do it Even I am getting a bit curious as to the potential of an attack in the UAE.

All joking aside, I think we all need to at least discuss this with our better halves. Especially if you guys are on the road and even more so if you are here with children.
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Old 4th Mar 2012, 03:47
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I recall reading last year that the top 4 defense spenders globally where: US, China, Russia, and drumroll......UAE.?! I was shocked. Missle defense, aircraft, IT, etc.

Sure if the Iranians were stupid enough to attack the UAE (#1 trading partner) some missles maybe would get through (Aegis missle cruiser parked off shore?) however I guess their top targets would be: Long range, Israel and Short range, Bahrain, Qatar. Will make a helluva mess on Qatari gas fields. They even may loft a few Saudi's way since there's no love lost between them and likely the warplanes from Israel transited Saudi's airspace....

Day one of a all-out shooting war: Complete loss of all Irainian subs, surface ships, coastal radar, C&C inland. The straits will stay open. The americans have wargamed this for 30 years.

Within days the PR machine will say the region has stabilized....flights will return to normal, EK will march on. This is NOT Iraq, there will be no land battle, no year long air campaign.

Last edited by The Turtle; 4th Mar 2012 at 03:55. Reason: turtle's usual spelling errors
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Old 4th Mar 2012, 07:52
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If you ever fly over Iran territory, and in good weather so you can have a look at that country, you will understand why the war did not start yet.
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Old 4th Mar 2012, 09:42
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With this history, why is there a conflict between the two?

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Old 5th Mar 2012, 03:28
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Although confusion runs amok in my life I was just passing on what I recall I read!!! Thanks for your due diligence.

And I don't think anyone was questioning the heart of the people of Iran. History is rife with rulers who do not have the support of the people.
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Old 5th Mar 2012, 04:59
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Well an attack can happen, will it depend on the nature of the mission. Length of the mission no normal human knows, only the supreme elite know.

Putin is now President what will his frign policy be?
Will he start war games with Syria and Iran with some foreign backing from communist Latin or South American countries?

Remember The Cold War? Well it never ended; it just evolved into something different.

I say, if you see the Iranians and Russians in The UAE running home start to worry.

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Old 5th Mar 2012, 06:24
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Are there any shelters in Dubai? Anybody living close to the Burj Khalifa should be looking for one....
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Old 5th Mar 2012, 06:39
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By the way, why is Israel allowed to have Nukes and the world looks the other way? Yet when Iran is even 'suspected' of doing what Israel has already done, they are under sanctions and threat of attack
It's comments such as yours and people's naivity (yet again, such as yours) that have put the world in the position that it's in now. The constant "bending over backwards" and Europe's insistency in being politically correct (or incorrect in my opinion) when it comes to tolerating certain beliefs have shown that Israel should be commended for its stance against this oppressive regime.
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Old 5th Mar 2012, 07:45
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By the way, why is Israel allowed to have Nukes and the world looks the other way? Yet when Iran is even 'suspected' of doing what Israel has already done, they are under sanctions and threat of attack. Granted, Iran has got to get rid of Ahmadinejad at all costs. He plays right into the hands of his enemies. If anyone person on this planet needed a PR advisor, it's that guy.
Have you seen Israel openly call for destruction of the Arab world? How about the other way around?

Another thing - value of life. Suicide bombings - weapon of choice for whom? Would you want a suicide bomber around with a nuclear weapon? Ever see Israelis run around doing suicide bombings?

I don't particularly care for Israel, but let's call spade a spade...
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Old 5th Mar 2012, 08:36
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Ever see Atheists running around doing suicide bombings...there's the problem right there.... My money is on between April and June, clearer skies....
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Old 5th Mar 2012, 09:34
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By the way, why is Israel allowed to have Nukes and the world looks the other way?
Israel, a Country with a Government that respects and values life vs Iran, one that has depraved indifference to the existence of another.

Yet when Iran is even 'suspected' of doing what Israel has already done, they are under sanctions and threat of attack.
Big difference... Israel defends its interest and right to exist while Iran, and yes, along with Syria provide the means to other to attack Israel.

By the way, Russia is no angel in this mess either by selling arms to both Iran and Syria. Would anyone like to venture a guess as to how many Russian scientist are helping the development of Iran's, (and my hands can barely type out the words), but here goes... nuclear program for medicinal purposes and for the good of mankind?
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Old 5th Mar 2012, 09:39
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I don't think a "war" is likely, but yes if so it could be a bit messy here...
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Old 5th Mar 2012, 12:08
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the irony is that Israel is protected by the presence of the Palestinians, making it impossible for the Iranians to Nuke them.

Are you familiar with the terms Martyr, Suffer for a Cause, Willing Victim, Sacrificial Victim, Sacrifice?

I guess in plain English... acceptable loss of life for a fanatic's cause.
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