PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Is war likely with Iran? Consequences for EK?
Old 3rd Mar 2012, 14:20
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fliion
 
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Good and valid query.

Obviously this is all conjecture and projectionist:

Yes the Israelis will hit Iran if they don't stop - which is hard to imagine them stopping.

Effect on Gulf? Pretty severe for about a year...but probably no worse than GFC of 2008.

Perception of safety traveling through area will be affected...Turkish to make a good run of it as a result.

Serious detrimental effect on real estate prices again probable.

Best case: US/coalition of the willing - air war with regime collapse in Tehran followed by Arab spring like awakening in Iran - 10 tear recovery for Iran itself, the Gulf returns quickly to normality

Worst case: 5th fleet hit in Bahrain, Minhad here and the base in Doha, rockets at cities throughout Israel, straits of Hormuz blocked....and that would destroy the tourism industry in Dubai for two years.

The interesting thing is there would be jobs for a lot of guys in East Asia as crises stay regional more so than in past due to monster global economy finding ways around obstacles.

f
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