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Career advice for Pilots..

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Career advice for Pilots..

Old 28th Mar 2020, 00:54
  #41 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Banana Joe View Post
So what degree would you suggest?
Forget degrees : London Underground drivers earn a nice little wad, more than many an OíLeary employee for doing a very similar job and getting to sleep in their own bed every night
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Old 28th Mar 2020, 02:15
  #42 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Cusco View Post
Forget degrees : London Underground drivers earn a nice little wad, more than many an OíLeary employee for doing a very similar job and getting to sleep in their own bed every night
How much do they earn? If it's good, I might apply.
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Old 28th Mar 2020, 02:40
  #43 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Retired DC9 driver View Post
If you are talking about an airline with a leaf on the tail, I just heard they are going ahead with a new-hire course in a month. Someone said a large course..People will need to fly.
That definitely won't be happening. They need to cut the flight ops budget by 50% to preserve cash. That direction came from the top!
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Old 28th Mar 2020, 04:17
  #44 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Kenny View Post
Mate of mine on a 73 contract in China told me a couple of days ago, that they were planning to be back at 80% but only enough demand for 50%.
Two months ago China was the virus epicentre and looked like it would implode on itself.

Even if the demand is back up to just 50% after only two months since lockdown then thatís realistically a fair amount.
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Old 28th Mar 2020, 04:54
  #45 (permalink)  
 
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Old 28th Mar 2020, 05:09
  #46 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by FE Hoppy View Post
I've been in the business, first military and them civil since 1989. In all my time i've never felt this negative about the industry. Realistically we are looking at 3 months before internal flights will start and maybe 18 months before a vaccine will allow international travel to open up. Now ask yourself, can my employer bleed cash long enough to exist that long? I understand the LH group is bleeding 1 Billion Euro's a month.

Good luck everyone. See you on the other side.
Itís clearly not going to take 18 months for international travel to start again. It will be up and running within a couple of months. The issue is the volume of travel, which isnít going to be nearly enough to sustain aviation jobs at the level theyíre at now.

The industry that emerges is going to be a third of the size it is now, and it will never get back to its current size ever again. Hence, the majority of those about to lose their jobs will never fly again.
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Old 28th Mar 2020, 05:23
  #47 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by flocci_non_faccio View Post
Itís clearly not going to take 18 months for international travel to start again. It will be up and running within a couple of months. The issue is the volume of travel, which isnít going to be nearly enough to sustain aviation jobs at the level theyíre at now.

The industry that emerges is going to be a third of the size it is now, and it will never get back to its current size ever again. Hence, the majority of those about to lose their jobs will never fly again.
A third the size? Not a quarter, nor a half, nor a fifth?
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Old 28th Mar 2020, 05:34
  #48 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by FLCH View Post
Burial business never goes out of style.

My wife's ex is in that gig, he works six days a week.
FIL passed 1200$ for a cardboard box for the fire. great margins
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Old 28th Mar 2020, 05:41
  #49 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by flocci_non_faccio View Post
The industry that emerges is going to be a third of the size it is now, and it will never get back to its current size ever again.
If I were a betting man I’d suggest that this quote is going to age really badly. I’m as worried as anyone about job prospects in the near term but this is just absolutely ludicrous.
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Old 28th Mar 2020, 06:10
  #50 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by marchino61 View Post
How much do they earn? If it's good, I might apply.
Google is your friend

https://www.aslef.org.uk/article.php?group_id=3449

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/t...-a3982211.html
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Old 28th Mar 2020, 06:40
  #51 (permalink)  
 
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Never is a long time
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Old 28th Mar 2020, 07:36
  #52 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Flying Clog View Post
Fantastic fastidious bob, I hope you're right. But we ALL need to be working on plan B right now. And not hoping that things will be just fine in 3-6 months.

I'm currently doing an online course, you all should be too.

And I'm an 18 year 747 captain with a legacy airline which has allegedly got VERY deep pockets.. But who knows what's going to happen right?

Use your time wisely.
Its tricky knowing what else to do and Iím genuinely trying to rack my brains for a second career.

What online course are you doing? I seen quite a few but always wary if theyíre any value or fake.
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Old 28th Mar 2020, 08:03
  #53 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by RexBanner View Post
What youíll be seeing is redundancies by fleet and by seat
I do not find the scenario where fleet, seat or seniority is relevant probable.

Originally Posted by flocci_non_faccio View Post
I I don't see any reason airlines in Europe will have to recruit again before 2030.
Methinks the most probable scenario is unprecedented scale recruitment in Europe, including planeloads of DECs, later this year or early next at the latest.
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Old 28th Mar 2020, 08:55
  #54 (permalink)  

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Not of help in the present situation, but. The current lock-down aside, have you ever come across an unemployed plumber or electrician? Yes,I know, it takes an apprenticeship, at least in UK. Apart from events like this, the job is very dependent on things like medicals. I had to retire medically just before turning 58. Luckily the pension kicked in at 60, but that two years was a case of living on savings, and being unable to find a job anywhere. Advice to a young man: train as a plumber/electrician/welder/ heavy-goods driver. Then go fly.
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Old 28th Mar 2020, 09:33
  #55 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Herod View Post
Not of help in the present situation, but. The current lock-down aside, have you ever come across an unemployed plumber or electrician? Yes,I know, it takes an apprenticeship, at least in UK. Apart from events like this, the job is very dependent on things like medicals. I had to retire medically just before turning 58. Luckily the pension kicked in at 60, but that two years was a case of living on savings, and being unable to find a job anywhere. Advice to a young man: train as a plumber/electrician/welder/ heavy-goods driver. Then go fly.
I know an FO whose first career was an HGV driver. He says if you got the right licenses/category thereís plenty of work.
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Old 28th Mar 2020, 10:09
  #56 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Clandestino View Post
I do not find the scenario where fleet, seat or seniority is relevant probable.
But you do find probable a scenario where a company thats having to make large scale redundancies because they’re running out of money make available a vast sum of time and money to retrain their remaining pilots onto new fleets (because they’ve just indiscriminately chopped let’s say the bottom 50% of their seniority list without regard to the numbers left on each fleet)? Not happening, see Flybe in 2013 for the answer to that one.

Or are you saying there won’t be any redundancies? An optimistic outlook which I like but not necessarily the most realistic if this thing goes on for months like it’s predicted to. I take no pleasure in this, I’m one of the ones right in the firing line.
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Old 28th Mar 2020, 10:13
  #57 (permalink)  
 
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If this virus completely went away tomorrow, what position would the global economy and airlines be in? If no lock downs or government economic intervention or virus spread suppression occurred, and no vaccine was ever found, what position would the global economy or airlines be in? Neither of these two extremes are likely to happen, but how close to either extreme is history going to record? Nobody knows! We can either be pessimistic for the future, or we can be optimistic. I knew back in January that we would arrive at the position we see ourselves in today, because whilst I saw China doing an amazing job, the rest of the world was not taking the situation seriously enough. Most people I spoke to, thought I was being incredibly pessimistic, but I was just being a realist. (I bet the world’s leaders are wishing they had immediately shut down all travel out of China and had traced and tested every individual who had travelled out the previous month; a massive undertaking which complacency at the time, deemed to be an over the top reaction. Now look where we are? I doubt they will make that mistake again).

However, I am optimistic that we can control this pandemic to quite a large extent, even before a vaccine comes along. Antigen and antibody testing does not require anything like the testing of vaccines, and as they soon become readily available, they will be very important tools to help us suppress the spread of the virus. The need to recover the economy ASAP is leading to a lot of money being being thrown at research and innovation to combat the effects of this virus, (and that learning will also be incredibly useful for the inevitable next virus to come along).

So whilst I agree this pandemic does have the potential to become the aviation game-changer being suggested here, (and I believe things are going to get a lot worse over the next month and lead to far more popular belief that this will indeed be the case), I am confident that the science will rapidly evolve, enabling us to move further away from the disastrous end of the spectrum of possibilities, and much closer to the more optimistic end. The possibilities for the economy follow a similar spectrum. The governments of the world are giving the science more time by pumping large amounts of money into the economy. The overall outcome will depend on how much time the science requires. That is pure guesswork at the moment, but I for one am choosing to remain optimistic.
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Old 28th Mar 2020, 10:24
  #58 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Mooneyboy View Post
Its tricky knowing what else to do and Iím genuinely trying to rack my brains for a second career.

What online course are you doing? I seen quite a few but always wary if theyíre any value or fake.
I have never done an online course, but also have never met a software engineer who did. I say for sure, don't waste time and money on any of the "IT" courses. All of them are worthless (don't know about others but suspect to be a similar case). It's kinda logical, if many training organization offers it and it can be done by watching videos and slide shows, then probably it is only good for flooding the market with "certificates".
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Old 28th Mar 2020, 11:02
  #59 (permalink)  
 
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I retired from the industry last Summer after 25 years as an airline economist. I spent most of that time working with airports providing them with data and advice on attracting new routes and understanding the performance of their existing networks. Here is my take:

I think this crisis is by far the worst the industry has seen in its 70 year or so history. Short of a nuclear war, it is hard to imagine what other scenario would result in the shutdown of virtually the entire industry for an undetermined time but likely to be at least two months.

9/11 was a tremendous shock, yes, but this is on a completely different scale. Back in 2001 the timing, leading into the low season accelerated the demise of many inefficient carriers that had been teetering on the brink for some time. The low cost revolution was just beginning and the event seemed to prime the market further for the explosive growth which began the following year. By the Spring of 2002, with no further attacks, people started flying again in droves, demand stimulated by the low fares, especially in Europe and by 2003 the LC industry was booming.

Similarly people still flew during the global financial crash, and although demand (and capacity) dropped, airlines still had cash-flow and the efficient ones were able to ride the storm. Again, the worst hit in the Autumn of 2008 so the Summers of 2008 and 2009 were still able to generate some profit.

This is different. We don’t know when flying will begin again, and when it does, which will either be in June or July, the forward bookings for the lucrative Summer season will not be there. People will still be reluctant to travel because of the virus and many will be tightening their belts in the face of a recession whose depth or duration no one will know at that point. This is the time when airlines drive yield which gives them two months of exceptional profitability which essentially pays for the rest of the year. Without it next Winter will be brutally tough.

So we have a situation that is at least as big as 9/11 and the crash combined, with worst possible timing added in.

I think we will see capacity cuts of 30-40% but possibly higher this Summer. Next Winter will be dire and the recovery will only begin a year from now. I think most airlines will lose money until 2022.

My prediction is that it will be at least 2-3 years but possibly more before capacity returns to pre-virus levels. Much will depend on how quickly the recession is over and how deep it ends up being.

Yes, the industry will recover but it will be in years, not months.
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Old 28th Mar 2020, 11:10
  #60 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Doors to Automatic View Post
I retired from the industry last Summer after 25 years as an airline economist. I spent most of that time working with airports providing them with data and advice on attracting new routes and understanding the performance of their existing networks. Here is my take:

I think this crisis is by far the worst the industry has seen in its 70 year or so history. Short of a nuclear war, it is hard to imagine what other scenario would result in the shutdown of virtually the entire industry for an undetermined time but likely to be at least two months.

9/11 was a tremendous shock, yes, but this is on a completely different scale. Back in 2001 the timing, leading into the low season accelerated the demise of many inefficient carriers that had been teetering on the brink for some time. The low cost revolution was just beginning and the event seemed to prime the market further for the explosive growth which began the following year. By the Spring of 2002, with no further attacks, people started flying again in droves, demand stimulated by the low fares, especially in Europe and by 2003 the LC industry was booming.

Similarly people still flew during the global financial crash, and although demand (and capacity) dropped, airlines still had cash-flow and the efficient ones were able to ride the storm. Again, the worst hit in the Autumn of 2008 so the Summers of 2008 and 2009 were still able to generate some profit.

This is different. We donít know when flying will begin again, and when it does, which will either be in June or July, the forward bookings for the lucrative Summer season will not be there. People will still be reluctant to travel because of the virus and many will be tightening their belts in the face of a recession whose depth or duration no one will know at that point. This is the time when airlines drive yield which gives them two months of exceptional profitability which essentially pays for the rest of the year. Without it next Winter will be brutally tough.

So we have a situation that is at least as big as 9/11 and the crash combined, with worst possible timing added in.

I think we will see capacity cuts of 30-40% but possibly higher this Summer. Next Winter will be dire and the recovery will only begin a year from now. I think most airlines will lose money until 2022.

My prediction is that it will be at least 2-3 years but possibly more before capacity returns to pre-virus levels. Much will depend on how quickly the recession is over and how deep it ends up being.

Yes, the industry will recover but it will be in years, not months.
That seems like a well-reasoned analysis to me.
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