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Career advice for Pilots..

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Career advice for Pilots..

Old 27th Mar 2020, 17:47
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Career advice for Pilots..

To anyone who has entered into a flying career since 2010, or any pilot that has less than 5 years on a loco seniority list or 10-15 years on a legacy seniority list;

I think it's time to wake up. You will likely never see the inside of a flight deck again.

The aviation sector is going to contract by 50% for at least the next 5-10 years, and will never, in our lifetimes, recover to the dizzy heights of 2019.

The UK and Europe are propping up employers, pilots, and airlines with up to 80% and 90% pay up to a certain amount. But that's obviously not going to play out well if there is a 50% contraction of the industry for the foreseeable future. Completely unsustainable and ridiculous.

So you must take the time now to learn another trade. Do an online university degree. Use your time now, preferably to get yourself into a semi recession proof trade or skill.

All the best and fingers crossed for all of us,

FC
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Old 27th Mar 2020, 17:51
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Can you send me this weekend Euro numbers as well please. Cheers
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Old 27th Mar 2020, 17:53
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Originally Posted by Flying Clog View Post
To anyone who has entered into a flying career since 2010, or any pilot that has less than 5 years on a loco seniority list or 10-15 years on a legacy seniority list;

I think it's time to wake up. You will likely never see the inside of a flight deck again.

The aviation sector is going to contract by 50% for at least the next 5-10 years, and will never, in our lifetimes, recover to the dizzy heights of 2019.

The UK and Europe are propping up employers, pilots, and airlines with up to 80% and 90% pay up to a certain amount. But that's obviously not going to play out well if there is a 50% contraction of the industry for the foreseeable future. Completely unsustainable and ridiculous.

So you must take the time now to learn another trade. Do an online university degree. Use your time now, preferably to get yourself into a semi recession proof trade or skill.

All the best and fingers crossed for all of us,

FC

love people like you ! I give it 5 years and it will all be back to normal probably even busier
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Old 27th Mar 2020, 17:54
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I'd sooner spend my money on some sort of online course, while I'm on unpaid airline leave, than the lotto thanks.

Thanks for the sarky response though.
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Old 27th Mar 2020, 17:55
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Excellent, I hope you're right!

Probably not though. Plan accordingly.
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Old 27th Mar 2020, 18:03
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I think this will prove to be absolutely spot on. Many of us have done our last ever flights in the past week or so.
There are lots of heads in the sand.
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Old 27th Mar 2020, 18:07
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Just please take our advice, from the relatively old hands who've been flying since the 90s - we've seen SARS, 9/11, the GFC etc, and this is about 10 times worse than all those pesky ones rolled into one.

Let's keep our fingers crossed, great, we all are in this sector. BUT, take your time off now to learn another skill or trade. Whether that be brick laying, or rocket science. Preferably something recession proof.
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Old 27th Mar 2020, 18:24
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Regardless of how this pans out, its not a bad idea using your off time to get another skill/trade as a back up anyway. I flew with many fairly new Fo's over the last few years that are new to the industry and countless times I explained that how it is now is not the norm and it won't last and something will crash the industry as its so fragile and here we are...chaos, I want to be optimistic and it will recover again everything does its part of the cycle of everything over decades, but will it return to the same ? Probably not, and the new guys new to the game will be at the bottom of a long list of very experienced guys, ask anyone who flew through the 2008 onward era

Bets of luck to all of us
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Old 27th Mar 2020, 18:28
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I’m with Riskybis. The number of “end-of-days” pronouncements I’ve heard in a career that started in 1974.....I remember circa 1988 operating a flight as a B727 F/O. We had a young guy, who had just been to his pilot interview with us, ask the captain if he could ride the flight deck with us. After we finished the round of introductions, the very first question the captain asked was: “Why would you want to come with a dying airline”.

That same interviewee has himself been a captain for close to 20 years and is currently a very senior B787 captain. Yes, this one is very bad, but it too shall pass.

’Taco
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Old 27th Mar 2020, 18:31
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The only way NONE of us ever fly again is if they find out that Covid 19 is actually caused by prolonged aircraft cabin air exposure.
I don't think anybody is saying none of us will ever fly again. Unfortunately though, many pilots ARE going to lose their jobs, and a very sizeable proportion will never fly again. I don't see any reason airlines in Europe will have to recruit again before 2030.
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Old 27th Mar 2020, 18:40
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Well nobody can predict (yet) how this will play out a year from now. But I very much doubt it will be business as usual.
Even if the supply is back in at a flip of a coin , the demand might not be there anymore. If the web-based meeting systems works well , and environment/climate change continues to become a major issue, it might take a while for the passengers to come back to fill airplanes again .
Not to mention a likely economic recession if this thing last more than a few months ..
Learning a new trade for young F/Os is not a bad idea., would it be only to bridge the gap until or if it picks up again....
But OK, just saying, ..See you back here in 2-3 months ..
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Old 27th Mar 2020, 18:54
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Look how the industry recovered after 9-11. It will come back including this time. Well not every airline. But people want and need to travel. And then pilots will be needed again.
How long this all takes? Nobody knows.
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Old 27th Mar 2020, 18:57
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Ignoring the nonsensical scare mongering above, and as someone who works for a large UK airline I can assure you recruitment will start in some capacity 1 month after all this blows over. How do I know this, because any large airline has a recruitment department that by its very nature has basically one job to do. While learning a new trade is always a good idea, can anyone explain how you are going to learn a trade at the moment? Unless it is a trade you can do from your laptop, or still live with your parents, one of which has a trade they can teach you from their own house? Never mind the fact you will struggle to find a suppliers shop open right now to do anything. Stop panicking, wash your hands, spend quality time with your loved ones and get ready to kick ass when this is all over. I'm done!
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Old 27th Mar 2020, 19:09
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Chinese airlines are up to 90% capacity already (short haul). It’s only been three months. This is not like 9/11. Seeing aircraft being flown into buildings made people extremely nervous about flying. Although the COVID19 crisis is acute, it will not be long lasting in my opinion. Oil prices are rock bottom, and people need to travel. I predict 6 months until the recovery begins.
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Old 27th Mar 2020, 19:22
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can anyone explain how you are going to learn a trade at the moment?
Absolutely agree. A large number of pilots, myself included, are going to be forced into taking any job going just to pay the bills. It is unlikely that many will have the time or money to commit to undertaking a university degree to retrain, and realistically entering another profession is the only way we're likely to achieve even a reasonable fraction of our current salaries. Because I already did a degree twenty years ago I'm not entitled to further student funding but unfortunately my degree is utterly useless as a back up plan because it is so out of date that I'd be better off not having it at all.

When the inevitable happens and I lose my job in the coming weeks, my future "career" probably involves stacking shelves in a supermarket until I retire, but of course with no chance of building a decent pension I'm unlikely to be in a position to retire, so more likely stacking shelves until I drop. We deliberately didn't overstretch ourselves when buying a house because I wanted to be able to pay the mortgage on an FO salary; naively I assumed that given the length of time I've been in the industry, the likely worst case scenario was being forced into taking a demotion and the associated paycut. Instead, we're looking forward to trying to pay the mortgage with me on minimum wage at best.

We shouldn't delude ourselves that we have any useful transferrable skills to offer employers in other sectors. Getting another flying job in the (distant) future is likely to prove an impossible task for many. Ratings will have lapsed, skills and knowledge atrophied. I don't see a reason for any positivity as an airline pilot right now.
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Old 27th Mar 2020, 19:32
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Originally Posted by flocci_non_faccio View Post
Absolutely agree. A large number of pilots, myself included, are going to be forced into taking any job going just to pay the bills. It is unlikely that many will have the time or money to commit to undertaking a university degree to retrain, and realistically entering another profession is the only way we're likely to achieve even a reasonable fraction of our current salaries. Because I already did a degree twenty years ago I'm not entitled to further student funding but unfortunately my degree is utterly useless as a back up plan because it is so out of date that I'd be better off not having it at all.

When the inevitable happens and I lose my job in the coming weeks, my future "career" probably involves stacking shelves in a supermarket until I retire, but of course with no chance of building a decent pension I'm unlikely to be in a position to retire, so more likely stacking shelves until I drop. We deliberately didn't overstretch ourselves when buying a house because I wanted to be able to pay the mortgage on an FO salary; naively I assumed that given the length of time I've been in the industry, the likely worst case scenario was being forced into taking a demotion and the associated paycut. Instead, we're looking forward to trying to pay the mortgage with me on minimum wage at best.

We shouldn't delude ourselves that we have any useful transferrable skills to offer employers in other sectors. Getting another flying job in the (distant) future is likely to prove an impossible task for many. Ratings will have lapsed, skills and knowledge atrophied. I don't see a reason for any positivity as an airline pilot right now.
I understand people are concerned, but don’t blow it out of proportion. I’ve been an airline pilot for 20 years, and survived many career ending events, but always managed to be in work. I’m not down playing COVID19, but if I was a betting man, I’d give it six months and the recovery will begin.
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Old 27th Mar 2020, 19:47
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Fantastic fastidious bob, I hope you're right. But we ALL need to be working on plan B right now. And not hoping that things will be just fine in 3-6 months.

I'm currently doing an online course, you all should be too.

And I'm an 18 year 747 captain with a legacy airline which has allegedly got VERY deep pockets.. But who knows what's going to happen right?

Use your time wisely.
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Old 27th Mar 2020, 19:50
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'Chinese airlines are already up to 90% capacity...……..'

As is always the case with China, everything is not quite as it appears. The increase in seat capacity has been ordered by the Chinese Communist Party and is not a result of passenger demand, despite massive government subsidies on ticket prices. If that 90% figure is an accurate quote from the Chinese regulator, then it has been artificially manufactured purely for propaganda.
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Old 27th Mar 2020, 19:52
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Originally Posted by cabbages View Post
'Chinese airlines are already up to 90% capacity...……..'

As is always the case with China, everything is not quite as it appears. The increase in seat capacity has been ordered by the Chinese Communist Party and is not a result of passenger demand, despite massive government subsidies on ticket prices. If that 90% figure is an accurate quote from the Chinese regulator, then it has been artificially manufactured purely for propaganda.
is that Chinese whispers?

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Old 27th Mar 2020, 20:06
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I've been chatting to my mates from back in the UK days, now that I've got so much time on my hands, who are a having a right old knees up on the Wirral, up in the Dales, in the Alps, and on the Costa. All of them on the piss. Enjoying their time off with their friends when they should be doing an online course in taxidermy or whatever suits your fancy!

But the impression that I get is they've all got their blinkers on with the 80/90% government bail outs, which isn't going to last more than a few months. And then bang.
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