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Is the hiring boom over?

Old 26th Mar 2020, 08:58
  #81 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by A320LGW View Post
What absolute hogwash. The trouble is people on here may actually believe you 😩
So true... I'm a wannabe and a lot of what I read here is just making me doubt myself for wanting to become a pilot, as if I were crazy or something... I do believe this situation will change industry forever as 9-11 did but I seriously doubt there will not be a place for cadets some time in the future, hopefully there will be in a near future (two years) than far future (ten years).

Some people should start hoarding aluminum foil for their tin hats instead of so much toilet paper...
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Old 26th Mar 2020, 09:08
  #82 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by slate100 View Post

My money is on 4 to 5 years before aviation is back at pre-virus levels...
Mine too. So if you are about to start with training, as mentioned so many times by others, go modular and SPREAD IT OUT. Do not pay flight schools large sums up front as some will go bankrupt in the near future. And be mean, you do not want to come out of this process with a big debt to service. Actually try to come out of this with a basic fATPL and no debt at all. It is possible, it has been done before. You have time.

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Old 26th Mar 2020, 10:02
  #83 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sorath View Post
So true... I'm a wannabe and a lot of what I read here is just making me doubt myself for wanting to become a pilot, as if I were crazy or something... I do believe this situation will change industry forever as 9-11 did but I seriously doubt there will not be a place for cadets some time in the future, hopefully there will be in a near future (two years) than far future (ten years).

Some people should start hoarding aluminum foil for their tin hats instead of so much toilet paper...
Theres two sides of every story!

One is people wanna train and they believe its the right thing, as we all believed at one stage

Then you have people who ďbeen there, done thatĒ are telling you not to do it.

Iím personally of the opinion to keep your cash as long as you can. Dont give up, but dont be going all out on this as this could be a lengthy process.
Theres still a few airlines possibly to go belly up, and realistically speaking market will be flooded with professional and rated pilots.

The problem is, the true reality hasnít kicked in yet, and people still think the pre-virus way.

Give it some time and you will see the changes, firstly flight schools will start to drop their prices, you might be in a better position.

But as it stands, the aviation is dead. All you have to do and look at the FR24 to see it happening.
No EZY Planes, No RYR, No Norwegian, No Iberia, etc.

And me a current and thousands of hour pilot Im out of job for foreseeable future!

good luck
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Old 26th Mar 2020, 10:05
  #84 (permalink)  
 
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Guys, finishing the entire training, ("zero to hero") in 18 months / 2 years is the best case scenario.
Loads of other factors are involved, school organisation, training outcomes, eventually exams to be repeated, aircrafts which go on maintanance, no slots for flying (eg. between CPL and IR).
I can tell, I ran around 4 schools.

So I wouldn't be too scared about the current situation, consider 2 years as minimum.
If you consider also the time to get a type rating and a line training (like MPLs) add something like 8 months more, the pandemic will be over sooner.
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Old 26th Mar 2020, 10:13
  #85 (permalink)  
 
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Furthermore a modular route, can be furtherly spreaded, allowing also people to keep their current jobs.
I'm my opinion if you have to sell you house to become a pilot, of course, think it twice.
If having a loan is not such a huge problem, I wouldn't be so concerned, considering a time lapse of 2/3 years.

Airlines which were booming before the pandemic, will expand even more with emptier skies (look Wizz).
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Old 26th Mar 2020, 10:14
  #86 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pinuz89 View Post
Guys, finishing the entire training, ("zero to hero") in 18 months / 2 years is the best case scenario.
Loads of other factors are involved, school organisation, training outcomes, eventually exams to be repeated, aircrafts which go on maintanance, no slots for flying (eg. between CPL and IR).
I can tell, I ran around 4 schools.

So I wouldn't be too scared about the current situation, consider 2 years as minimum.
If you consider also the time to get a type rating and a line training (like MPLs) add something like 8 months more, the pandemic will be over sooner.
The question is.. what will be left over those 2years+8months... will there be spots for fresh fATPLs or not. Is it worth it to wait it out having to pay for your "current status".... we all hope it just blows away but even if everyone wanted to fly again, airlines will be damaged economically and they might not be able to operate or expand as they desire...
I truly hope this is a V shape recovery pattern but the more time the airlines are grounded the more U shape the recovery will be... a long U that is.
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Old 26th Mar 2020, 12:31
  #87 (permalink)  
 
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What absolute hogwash. The trouble is people on here may actually believe you 😩
What exactly is unbelievable? Take easyJet for example: they have a relatively young pilot workforce, with no real retirement bubble imminent. There is no reason to suggest that attrition will be particularly high. Considering that it is highly likely easyJet will shrink their fleet by a third or more, resulting in significant pilot redundancies, why would you think that they'll have any need for new hires within the next ten years? Bear in mind that easyJet has been one of the major hirers of pilots for the past couple of decades.

There will be hundreds, perhaps thousands, of pilots laid off in the UK alone over the coming months. A sizeable proportion will probably never get another flying job.
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Old 26th Mar 2020, 12:36
  #88 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by flocci_non_faccio View Post
What exactly is unbelievable? Take easyJet for example: they have a relatively young pilot workforce, with no real retirement bubble imminent. There is no reason to suggest that attrition will be particularly high. Considering that it is highly likely easyJet will shrink their fleet by a third or more, resulting in significant pilot redundancies, why would you think that they'll have any need for new hires within the next ten years? Bear in mind that easyJet has been one of the major hirers of pilots for the past couple of decades.

There will be hundreds, perhaps thousands, of pilots laid off in the UK alone over the coming months. A sizeable proportion will probably never get another flying job.
Perhaps attrition may come from legacy carriers with retirement bubble employing them since they have better conditions as a company, therefore generating a void.
But if the industry shrinks... there will be overpopulation, yes..
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Old 26th Mar 2020, 12:40
  #89 (permalink)  
 
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But if the industry shrinks... there will be overpopulation, yes..
If the industry shrinks?!

Some people really need to get their head out of the sand.


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Old 26th Mar 2020, 14:35
  #90 (permalink)  
 
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Anyone thinking on getting a job in any type of airline in EU land anytime soon is just dreaming on. Not stating just my own opinion, but also stating reality facts. Have a little research on how many airline have disappeard in just last 3 years: Monarch, Air Berlin, WOW, Germania, Primera Air, Cobalt, XL , Aigle azur, Air italy, flybe... that's just in EU in 3 years. It gives cold chills down my spine.

Is true the saying in aviation that "In hiring/good times you compete with 100s of pilots, and in bad times you compete with 1000s of pilots". So the reality is that there is a lot of experienced chaps on all types (737/320/330 etc) with thousands of hours of commercial flying that are or will be looking for a job. For a new CPL pilot i can not imagine a worst scenario at this moment.

Be really wise on the decision to embark on a career flying in this exact moment, as it could be said without exagerating that even if you would start training now from scratch you are likely to never find a job. How long the recovery will take nobody can tell, as no one can see the future.
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Old 26th Mar 2020, 21:24
  #91 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sorath View Post
Perhaps attrition may come from legacy carriers with retirement bubble employing them since they have better conditions as a company, therefore generating a void.
But if the industry shrinks... there will be overpopulation, yes..
Well, Sorath here in the UK with BMI, Monarch, TC & Flybe all gone, now CV-19, flight schedule reductions from Loganair, BA & Easy I cannot see a quick return to hiring low hour FOs straight out of school.

I know because I had my Loganair Sim Assessment cancelled and only Flybe or ATR rated crews are being recruited. Eastern want their FOs to have 1000 hours (I do) and 500 multi (I don't: 52).

Then there's Norwegian. Delta. Qantas. Air New Zealand. VA & Gulf states various all cutting back. Missed anyone?

Then of course we are leaving EASA allegedly. But here in Scotland we may rejoin if independent. Talk about slowing to Va...

Maybe Spain is doing better? Any recommendations?
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Old 2nd Apr 2020, 17:40
  #92 (permalink)  
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Letís all agree

Ask 100 Pilots

Get 100 different answers

At the end of the day!

No one really knows whatís going to happen?

PeeWee
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Old 2nd Apr 2020, 18:46
  #93 (permalink)  
 
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I foresee zero expansion in the short to midterm. Command prospects will slow for those fortunate to keep working. There may even be redundencies in the low cost sectors with "junior" Captains reverting back to right hand seats. If you are very newly employed you might find yourself seeking an alternative workplace. easyJet for example has 330 ISH aircraft with 100 orders BUT a majority shareholder who wants in the region of 250 aircraft which he considers the most cost /profit effective number.

Last edited by Douglas Bahada; 2nd Apr 2020 at 21:42.
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Old 2nd Apr 2020, 21:58
  #94 (permalink)  
 
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Mrpeewee, Agreed.

Other than the DTOs/ATOs will still happily take your cash whatever...that’s def.
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Old 5th Apr 2020, 10:23
  #95 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Mrpeewee View Post
Ask 100 Pilots

Get 100 different answers

At the end of the day!

No one really knows whatís going to happen?

PeeWee
You donít need to be too smart to see what will happen.

Avalon just cancelled their multi million order of 75 B737Max aircraft, and many other airlines are doing the same, not only with Boeing, but Airbus order are being slashed too.

So based on that, take it that there will be no expansion, but downgrade only, and as it stands theres 1000s of over qualified Pilots on the market already.

So to commence the training now, just to be another sardine in the water... hmm Id think twice.
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Old 5th Apr 2020, 12:11
  #96 (permalink)  
 
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It's just impossible to make any predictions. It could be a horrible couple of years with orders being cancelled and airlines going bankrupt, or the industry could contract this year and then start recovering again next year and boom for a few more years.
It's a cycle, at some point it will go up again. How much will it sink? How much will it bounce back? Impossible to tell. I think the next 2-3 months will be crucial to get a picture of what the industry will do. If restrictions start being lifted gradually, we may experience a gradual, slow but steady recovery, with pre-Covid levels to be reached in a couple of years.

Much depends on the outcome of a possible vaccine.
​​​​​

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Old 5th Apr 2020, 12:20
  #97 (permalink)  
 
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The summer season is lost. So winter will be the earliest to see some tiny recovery in demand. This thing will take some years to buff out for sure. Aircraft manufacturing rates will tell us a lot about the industry's recovery assumptions. GE cut the engine production by half already.
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Old 16th Apr 2020, 21:56
  #98 (permalink)  
 
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Wizz just fired 250 great lads. My guess a lot more will follow throughout the Europe if COVID situation doesnīt improve
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Old 16th Apr 2020, 23:47
  #99 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Less Hair View Post
The summer season is lost. So winter will be the earliest to see some tiny recovery in demand. This thing will take some years to buff out for sure. Aircraft manufacturing rates will tell us a lot about the industry's recovery assumptions. GE cut the engine production by half already.
Winter the airlines have to many pilots always, so assume rest of this year lost, assume another few thousands of pilots loosing their jobs in Europe, Asia and Middle East, in addition to FlyBe, Thomas Cook now recently.

2021 will be very hard for any new guys to get a job. All the guys on courses have had they courses frozen, and expect a lot to hire unemployed guys first, through various union agreements. 2022 is the earliest, and that is being extremely optimistic of the aftermath of this current situation. Sit tight, hold on to your cash.
Expect house price crash, negative equality, millions defaulting on their mortgages, rent etc., because unprecedented number of people all over the world are loosing their jobs and their income.
Travel will not be the priority for most when the economy starts to open up.

I know guys few days before their command courses just got stopped, guys working their notice periods in their current company getting told by their new company that contract was cancelled, back in the hold pool for unknown time. People with job interviews lined up, all just stopped up, within few days notice. It has been brutal out there in the world of aviation, and it's going to get worse over the next few months unfortunately.
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 08:27
  #100 (permalink)  
 
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It is hard to see anything other than very limited recruitment in very limited markets in the next 12-18 months.
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