Is the hiring boom over?
 

2016-2018 - plenty for low hour guys
2019 - slowed down
2020 - Cockpits full?

What are your thoughts?

Peewee

There’s still quite a few opportunities for low hour pilots - RYR recently reopened recruitment, Jet2 pilot apprenticeship & Flybe to name a few.

Let s hope it will pick up again 🤞

I know people (low hours) who within the past 6 months have been hired at:

Jet2
Titan
Flybe
Stobart
Loganair
FlyWales
Dragonfly

So yes absolutely there are still opportunities out there for low hour pilots, however I'd say that the numbers are obviously a lot lower than previous.

EasyJet are recruiting 1000 new pilots over the next 5 years through CAE.

the Integrated students have preference over modular guys applying thru CAE

Sorry just to be clear are you saying the MPL students who are doing the integrated course have preference or the ATPL white tail students have preference over someone who is on a modular course?

There used to be a pecking order. The most lucrative students get the most attention, and down the ladder it goes.

The MPL students were the top (self-sponsored MPL with the orange airline). They got the lion’s share of attention and resources. It was no holds barred to get these people finished on time.

This was followed by the fully-sponsored Middle-Eastern cadets (the Middle Eastern airlines know their cadets struggle with training, so they give very generous time frames to complete their training).

Then followed by the “tagged” ATPL cadets (on a self-funded ATPL course but have passed an airline selection prior to starting, have a conditional job offer, and wear an airline lanyard).

Then the ordinary self-sponsored integrated ATPL students. During the flying stage it was very common for you to be removed from scheduled flights at a day’s notice, and your flight given to one of the above “higher priority” students. The same with losing your instructor, aircraft, etc, to the above folk. Horrifically frustrating when you’re already months behind schedule as it is and you keep getting leapfrogged.

The bottom of the bottom are the modulars. Even the self-sponsored integrated ATPL lot get it better than them. But, they pay the least money, so that’s what it’s all about.

But for the jobs at the end, a few times a year airlines will recruit through the school. This can be as many as 6 in a year, to as little as none. The orange airline used to come in around twice per year to recruit (and take a dozen or so self-sponsored folk who weren’t already tagged). These tend to be schemes with expensive self-sponsored type ratings (£38k for EZY, etc), as the respective school also provides and sells you the type rating.

But yes, the integrated students got first dibs, and if they couldn’t get enough interest for the particular selection then they’d invited the modulars. (And even if you do apply to and get a job outside of they school’s schemes and off your own back, the school will still take credit and use you as a statistic and advertise that X amount of students went to Y airline.

Back to topic, yes, it is a bit ropey for new pilots looking for first jobs at the moment. Thomas Cook was a big hit to the UK market, as 600 experienced Airbus drivers were suddenly in it. Ryanair closing recruitment late summer didn’t help either (4 out of 5 of my flight school mates went to Ryanair). It goes in peaks and troughs, and I would say it’s half way down one. EZY will always recruit, but they do it primarily through the big schools where it’s lucrative to all involved. Jet2, TUI and BA tend to want experience (barring apprentice scheme). Wizz and Lauda will need base moves to Europe. flyBe and Eastern are recruiting, but as far as I know Loganair aren’t.

Loganair are recruiting at the moment. They have an assessment day in Dundee this week, and have made offers to a handful of NTR low hour people last month. Some of whom were modular guys.

Hope this keeps up, I've just started ATPLs and Loganair is my dream job. Guessing they are hiring for their new ATRs?

Do you know the noticed period ? I've sent an email on monday and received the confirmation on tuesday by HR and told me it will be reviewed in due course, do you know how much time it could be? as they won't contact me if is unsuccessfull
Thanks!

All the low cost are recruiting, big focus on their MPL/academy programs. It might get more difficult for old chaps for sure, due the vast number of fresh grads coming through. Commander recruitment might slow down thought, most airlines are focusing to upgrade their SFOs than external placements, that's the trend.
Well, RYR will need a bunch when the max comes back, i would say the same will be with Norwegian and other with orders in line. WZZ is having their expansion to Abu Dhabi, so there you go a bunch more.

DEC recruitment is always a controversial issue, as it often leapfrog’s SFOs and FOs who’ve paid their dues and been in the firm longer. It does cause a lot of grief and in-fighting. EZY and RYR tend to be quite similar; cadets fill the right seat, who eventually move to the left seat, and DECs plug the gaps. I agree that as an FO you have much more flexibility in the job market (or even more so a Captain willing to go RHS).

It’s good Loganair are recruiting again. They definitely stopped at a point because they made a load of Embraer pilots redundant late last year. Take Loganair over flyBe any day of the week, with the state they’re in.

i doubt it, especially with Norwegian, as base closures of both short and long haul have caused a surplus of pilots , even if the MAX returns.

From Rumours and News

https://www.businessinsider.com/iata...20-2?r=US&IR=T

I don't think the virus outbreak is going to affect Europe a lot unless it becomes as critical as in Asia. The main problems in Europe are caused by fuel price and the MAX grounding. Once the MAX returns to service I expect airlines will need pilots to operate flights on intra-European and transatlantic routes.
Norwegian cash flow issues seem to have come to a stop after their restructuring but they need the MAX and RR issues to be fixed for good.

IMVHO even if the outbreak doesn’t arrive in Europe the european pilot market could still be effected by this...

A lot will depend on how quickly the Chinese market recovers it’s appetite for expat pilots....

Time will tell....

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...navirus-fears/

Considering the above, I don't think it is a great idea to start commercial training now. It just goes to show how important it is to have a Plan B when trying to start a flying career since the outlook for the industry can change so quickly.

Hopefully, the virus will be contained and/or some sort of medication will be able to limit the effect it has, though it looks like Europe is going to be affected more than previously thought.

“Non paywall” analysis here:

https://www.theguardian.com/business...d-with-reality

If there is a “dip” in demand for air travel (and it’s getting harder to believe there won’t be, even in Europe) then hopefully it will be short lived.

FlyBe going bust (which seems to be looking increasingly likely) would put another 600 pilots just on the UK market. The coffin would be nailed shut in the UK for finding an airline job, probably for the next couple of years.

If this Coronavirus gets much worse, it comes with it a downturn in air travel, and then the possibility of airlines closing recruitment, redundancies, or even the weaker airlines being unable to keep heads above water and going under. That’s another few hundred experienced guys on the EU market.

This is worse case scenario, and if it were to happen I imagine the effect would be much more mild. Still, I reckon the flyBe issue will the biggest factor in determining the amount of jobs going. Especially how it could be another 600 pilots on the market just months after Thomas Cook’s 600.

I wouldn’t put anyone off beginning their training at the moment (although it’s a bit dodgy now, the market can be a different kettle of fish in 2 years). But, as mentioned by someone else, a plan B is vital. A job you can pay your way with in the event of not finding an airline job, or whilst looking for one. Simply going straight from school into fight training is a big risk, with no skills to fall back on. Definitely not worth the risk remortgaging your parent’s house over.