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Is the hiring boom over?

Old 25th Feb 2020, 08:56
  #21 (permalink)  
 
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FlyBe going bust (which seems to be looking increasingly likely) would put another 600 pilots just on the UK market. The coffin would be nailed shut in the UK for finding an airline job, probably for the next couple of years.

If this Coronavirus gets much worse, it comes with it a downturn in air travel, and then the possibility of airlines closing recruitment, redundancies, or even the weaker airlines being unable to keep heads above water and going under. Thatís another few hundred experienced guys on the EU market.

This is worse case scenario, and if it were to happen I imagine the effect would be much more mild. Still, I reckon the flyBe issue will the biggest factor in determining the amount of jobs going. Especially how it could be another 600 pilots on the market just months after Thomas Cookís 600.

I wouldnít put anyone off beginning their training at the moment (although itís a bit dodgy now, the market can be a different kettle of fish in 2 years). But, as mentioned by someone else, a plan B is vital. A job you can pay your way with in the event of not finding an airline job, or whilst looking for one. Simply going straight from school into fight training is a big risk, with no skills to fall back on. Definitely not worth the risk remortgaging your parentís house over.
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Old 25th Feb 2020, 09:45
  #22 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Rottweiler22 View Post
FlyBe going bust (which seems to be looking increasingly likely) would put another 600 pilots just on the UK market. The coffin would be nailed shut in the UK for finding an airline job, probably for the next couple of years.

If this Coronavirus gets much worse, it comes with it a downturn in air travel, and then the possibility of airlines closing recruitment, redundancies, or even the weaker airlines being unable to keep heads above water and going under. Thatís another few hundred experienced guys on the EU market.

This is worse case scenario, and if it were to happen I imagine the effect would be much more mild. Still, I reckon the flyBe issue will the biggest factor in determining the amount of jobs going. Especially how it could be another 600 pilots on the market just months after Thomas Cookís 600.

I wouldnít put anyone off beginning their training at the moment (although itís a bit dodgy now, the market can be a different kettle of fish in 2 years). But, as mentioned by someone else, a plan B is vital. A job you can pay your way with in the event of not finding an airline job, or whilst looking for one. Simply going straight from school into fight training is a big risk, with no skills to fall back on. Definitely not worth the risk remortgaging your parentís house over.
Good advice. Worth noting that these collapses (Thomas Cook, maybe Flybe) are not as much as a threat to new cadets as they first seem. Reason being is that firstly cadets are cheaper than employing experienced pilots. More importantly though is that a lot of these collapses result in other airlines getting hold of new routes and so their capacity will increase albeit not immediately.

Short term it's testing times in the industry - medium to long term - who knows - proceed with caution i suppose.
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Old 25th Feb 2020, 10:56
  #23 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Richard Kenneth Reed View Post
Good advice. Worth noting that these collapses (Thomas Cook, maybe Flybe) are not as much as a threat to new cadets as they first seem. Reason being is that firstly cadets are cheaper than employing experienced pilots. More importantly though is that a lot of these collapses result in other airlines getting hold of new routes and so their capacity will increase albeit not immediately.

Short term it's testing times in the industry - medium to long term - who knows - proceed with caution i suppose.
Fair point. I know it was mentioned somewhere that EZY didnít take a single ex Thomas Cook pilot. Yet, the cadet schemes were still going strong. The cadet schemes are lucrative for all involved, so they will keep ticking over. Still, another 600 pilots on the market is no good for anyone (perhaps except airlines who use it as an excuse to lower Ts&Cs).

My old airline went bust within hours. Not one
person saw it coming. It was mental. So believe me mate, anything can happen, at any time. Thereís
no such thing as ďunbelievableĒ in this game.
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Old 25th Feb 2020, 15:49
  #24 (permalink)  
 
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What do BALPA do when an airline goes bankrupt, do they try and negotiate with other airlines to help the redundant pilots get taken on elsewhere?

As for cadets being prioritised, it's in the interest of the airlines for the pilot market to be as flooded as possible, as has been seen in the US, when there is a shortage, the T&Cs on offer can go through the roof. In my view, it's up to BALPA and indeed, other unions abroad, to try and put a stop or some sort of limit on the seemingly endless supply being run through the flying schools.
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Old 26th Feb 2020, 17:50
  #25 (permalink)  

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At a PPRuNe wannabe seminar many years ago, an airline DFO gave a presentation about the job market for low-hours pilots.

He started by drawing a graph of pilots jobs over time, and noted the way the job market tends to build steadily for several years, before an Ďeventí precipitates a cliff-edge collapse. His observation was that the market tends to follow a (roughly) 10 year cycle, with the bottom falling out in 1990 (1st Gulf War), 2001 (9/11 terrorist attacks) and 2008 (the financial crash).

Itís now 2020 . . .

I would give some thought to that, particularly if I was considering starting an integrated course.

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Old 3rd Mar 2020, 19:01
  #26 (permalink)  
 
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Rumours of cadets on various UK airline schemes being delayed start dates. Iíd be very wary of starting any training course now. Things are rapidly slowing and may well reverse if airlines go bust. If you are in training now do all you can to suspend/slow down your training. This industry can get very ugly very quick.
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Old 4th Mar 2020, 06:10
  #27 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by G SXTY View Post
At a PPRuNe wannabe seminar many years ago, an airline DFO gave a presentation about the job market for low-hours pilots.

He started by drawing a graph of pilots jobs over time, and noted the way the job market tends to build steadily for several years, before an Ďeventí precipitates a cliff-edge collapse. His observation was that the market tends to follow a (roughly) 10 year cycle, with the bottom falling out in 1990 (1st Gulf War), 2001 (9/11 terrorist attacks) and 2008 (the financial crash).

Itís now 2020 . . .

I would give some thought to that, particularly if I was considering starting an integrated course.
Well the European market has been rubbish for about 12 years now anyway since about 2008 so Its not like the US market which is booming and could go completely bust. The last few years in Europe have been okay but nothing spectacular when compared to the rest of the world, especially North America and Asia. I have been flying in the US and Europe and European aviation can only be described as depressing when comparing the 2 markets

The COV-19 virus certainly has not helped things but unless we have another 2008 GFC where the markets were decimated I dont think it will get too bad here. It may slow down but in 2009/10/11/12/13 it came to a grinding halt.

If you really want to be a pilot then it could be a good time in Europe because it is a bit slow and if the glory days of 2003-2007/8 ever return it will only be in a few years from now.
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Old 4th Mar 2020, 07:00
  #28 (permalink)  
 
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What boom ? Salaries are still low for FO, paid like a secretary to be an airline pilot , everyone should leave the industry
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Old 4th Mar 2020, 08:05
  #29 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Daddy Fantastic View Post
Well the European market has been rubbish for about 12 years now anyway since about 2008 so Its not like the US market which is booming and could go completely bust. The last few years in Europe have been okay but nothing spectacular when compared to the rest of the world, especially North America and Asia. I have been flying in the US and Europe and European aviation can only be described as depressing when comparing the 2 markets

The COV-19 virus certainly has not helped things but unless we have another 2008 GFC where the markets were decimated I dont think it will get too bad here. It may slow down but in 2009/10/11/12/13 it came to a grinding halt.

If you really want to be a pilot then it could be a good time in Europe because it is a bit slow and if the glory days of 2003-2007/8 ever return it will only be in a few years from now.
God I hope you are right... Starting in April in Madrid my ATPL
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Old 4th Mar 2020, 09:55
  #30 (permalink)  
 
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I don't suppose many of the heavily delayed white-tail trainees on certain integrated courses will be best pleased by this. Had their training been run to schedule, they'd have qualified during a much better time for airline recruitment.
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Old 5th Mar 2020, 08:46
  #31 (permalink)  
 
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Everybody starting a MPL or ATPL at this moment with borrowed money (loan) from the bank is MAD !!!! Sorry to say but you need to be realistic.
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Old 5th Mar 2020, 09:27
  #32 (permalink)  
 
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Mad? A training takes on average 2 years. Everything could happen in 2 years. We might either have a massive recession or another hiring boom in 2 years. It is unpredictable.

But I strongly advise to go modular and keep your actual job.
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Old 5th Mar 2020, 09:36
  #33 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Banana Joe View Post
Mad? A training takes on average 2 years. Everything could happen in 2 years. We might either have a massive recession or another hiring boom in 2 years. It is unpredictable.
But I strongly advise to go modular and keep your actual job.
Wise words. I will stop working for my ATPL theoryy period, aprox 10 months, and resume working after that while I finish my flight training and flight examinations. ... after that, I guess it will be just applying to anything open at the time and maintaining my licence as current as possible by my own means.
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Old 5th Mar 2020, 09:37
  #34 (permalink)  
 
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BJ, it's just my opinion, I realize many young people don't know how much 125 k is and how difficult it is to save let alone pay back with interest..

I used mad as in using your parent's house as a security on a 125 k loan. Even in good times is something mad to do, imagine now with hundreds of experienced pilots on the market....

But, If you have it on the account and want to take the risk ... do it by all means...
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Old 5th Mar 2020, 09:44
  #35 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Buenas View Post
BJ, it's just my opinion, I realize many young people don't know how much 125 k is and how difficult it is to save let alone pay back with interest..
I used mad as in using your parent's house as a security on a 125 k loan. Even in good times is something mad to do, imagine now with hundreds of experienced pilots on the market....
But, If you have it on the account and want to take the risk ... do it by all means...
I absolutely have to get a loan... 70K to be exact (not accounting for TR expenses)... but It's all or nothing. I don't want to die without saying I tried... There is always time to NOT pay the bank, in the case of a worst worst case scenario.
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Old 5th Mar 2020, 10:11
  #36 (permalink)  
 
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I am working already. I am just going to suggest what I did: modular and spend less than half of the amount you mention.
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Old 5th Mar 2020, 10:16
  #37 (permalink)  
 
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Completely agree, I seriously donít see how anyone would put their parents house as a security on a 125K loan. The shear amount of experienced Pilots that have suddenly flooded the market must surely be a worry to people. Please go modular and forget integrated courses, itís way to risky at present times!

Originally Posted by Buenas View Post
BJ, it's just my opinion, I realize many young people don't know how much 125 k is and how difficult it is to save let alone pay back with interest..

I used mad as in using your parent's house as a security on a 125 k loan. Even in good times is something mad to do, imagine now with hundreds of experienced pilots on the market....

But, If you have it on the account and want to take the risk ... do it by all means...
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Old 5th Mar 2020, 12:41
  #38 (permalink)  
 
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With todayís appalling news re Flybe...maybe the UK boom is over.

Loganair are not recruiting, neither is Eastern. Hunkering down time.
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Old 5th Mar 2020, 12:58
  #39 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Daddy Fantastic View Post
Well the European market has been rubbish for about 12 years now anyway since about 2008...
That's perhaps a bit overstated! IThe real game is when exactly to train if you're determined to do it.

I graduated uni in July 2008 straight into an frankly awful recession. I had planned to go and do flight training almost immediately, initially with the RAF but that dried up and then with CTC etc. It was obvious that it wasn't the time to do it so held off. I applied to CTC 2 years later, so mid summer 2010 and got offered a course October 2010 and managed to get them to delay me until spring 2011 guessing that things might be better when I completed due to a further 6 months, also had a decent job by then that I could easily return to. My course all had a mini-panic for the double dip recession worries in 2011, but fortunately that all blew over.

Finished it all late 2012 and waited 3 weeks before easyJet took most of my course with a start date 3 days after the phone call! I did my command in 2018 in less than 5 years from joining.

I know I was lucky but I can't see how you couldn't call that a boom and call it 'rubbish' instead. We were the first course to graduate and be in jobs in less than 3 months since before the recession. That boom took nearly 5 years to hit after the preceding recession. Bottom line, beware at the moment. Gut feeling is that aviation is about to have a big readjustment.
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Old 5th Mar 2020, 13:55
  #40 (permalink)  
 
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Anyone in their right mind would go modular in this environment. If people stop training - great. That means there will at some point be a shortage again, it's just a matter of waiting it out. The safest thing is to keep your job, get a PPL, reassess your finances. Do some hour building and start your ATPLs. If you spread out it, that'll give you 4Ĺ years from the first exam to ATPL expiry. You'll only have spent £20k and you'll have £20k left to spend on the CPL/IR, but only when you're more confident of the market.
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