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Are things picking up?

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Old 1st Sep 2010, 08:09
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Are things picking up?

What you think? There seems to be a bit of movement and some airlines are starting to recruit. There also seems to be a bit of unrest within the pilots at some of the entry level airlines. Once the large carriers start recruiting will pilots be leaving the loco's 'en masse' and creating lots of jobs for low houred guys? Will this lead to the end of P2F or make it worse? Or have we still got along way to go yet?
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Old 1st Sep 2010, 17:57
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A certain job website has more jobs on it at the moment for pilots that i've seen for a long time - before wannabes get too excited, they are all contracts and for experienced pilots, but it's a good sign...

A while to go yet before you'll find a job with a Frozen ATPL and 200 hours...
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Old 1st Sep 2010, 18:14
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It does seem that more openings are coming up, and a couple have openings for low houred ab-initio guys like myself, but i'm not getting my hopes up! It's been over 2 years now for me. Applying none stop, flying 100+hrs a year, paying my £1500+ debt per month and still nothing!

Oh well, good things come to those who wait! I'm sure it'll happen one day
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Old 1st Sep 2010, 19:12
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Well if there is recruitment at the top of the ladder then that creates jobs at the bottom.

What we need is for low houred guys to realise that the airlines need them as much as they need the jobs. They might get away with P2F when there is nothing else, but when its boom time and there is lots of guys leaving the locos for better things it puts them in a better position.

Whilst there will never be a shortage of 200 hour pilots I would not be handing over a large amount of cash at the moment for the chance of a job. You may just end up flying with people who had their TR paid for not long afterwards.
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Old 1st Sep 2010, 21:15
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No RexBanner

P2F only exists because people are willing to stump up the cash and sell their left leg. It has absolutely nothing to do with supply & demand. End of story.
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Old 1st Sep 2010, 22:16
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Deano777 - Of course it has to do with supply and demand!

If the airlines are desperate to get new pilots, and there are not enough candidates available, they will offer better conditions to attract you.

However at this moment of this scenario seems pretty science fiction, it is nevertheless pretty logical train of thought!

Scenario, imagine there was jobs available for a pilots, and a company like RYR did not have enough pilots, they would most definitely pay your TR, and make sure you got better conditions then they need to offer today, where there so many pilots to choose from, that they can select only the best candidates, and then on top of that make them pay their own TR upfront!

That would NEVER happen, if there was lack of pilots to recruit!
So your logic deano777 is wrong - like any business - supply and demand is the master of the situation.
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Old 1st Sep 2010, 22:39
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BoeingDreamer

We'll have to agree to disagree, because that's nonsense. Supply and demand or not, if pilots refused to "P2F" then these schemes wouldn't exist, period. The only reason they exist is because there are people willing to pay the money - fact. It's why they charge you £5 for a cuppa in a service station, because we're all dumb enough to pay it.
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Old 1st Sep 2010, 23:14
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Spot on john smith
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Old 1st Sep 2010, 23:56
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I do believe the trend of paying your own TR for your first job is something that is here to stay.

And the mirage of the so called "upturn" might never be big enough to create a pilot shortage, even if there is a drastic upturn.

I deal in retail of special second hand goods, if there is a product that is hard to find/replace - I will put the price higher - however if it is a product who many other offers at reasonable and competitive price, I need to sell this product for less (And I also have to pay less for it when I buy it)

So as long as there will never be a complete shortage of pilots, P2F will always have a market! But if there against all odds, was a major shortage, then P2F strategy would struggle.

I can see some airlines today becoming "feeder" airlines for the larger carriers, and this actually suits all parts as part of their business models.

I admit I would pay my own TR - if there was a job attached to it, and probably at least 80% of the people on these forums would too!
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Old 2nd Sep 2010, 08:07
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im over 3000 hours total and 1500hours PIC jet on business a/c, 2 years on no still i wait for job. All the time must have 500 hours on type, so i understand why people who can pay, pay. All the arguments will not stop this.

I still meet pilots paying to fly because they have the money, and correct if someone wants to pay who will ever say no ?

I am happy to see jobs for those with time on types and yes i hope we can all move up and sure we will. But P2F is not going away, last weekend i met 4 pilots who finished summer contract paying for hours and already pay for next year, in order to "secure a seat". This really is scare tactics and crazy.

But good luck and hope we all get a job soon.

Mr M
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Old 2nd Sep 2010, 08:24
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Monsieur Airbus and Mr Boeing promised in the 80s that pilots would be paid on a level with bus drivers within three decades.
Actually in most Scandanavian countries and a few other EU countries, the bus driver does make more money, has better benefits due to strong Union action (vs. Union non-action), and are guaranteed a pension.
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Old 2nd Sep 2010, 13:52
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I believe a lot of guys out there with no job are blaming pay2fly pilots for the lack of jobs available. I don't agree.
Yes, there are companies out there that offers p2fly schemes with 500 hrs on type out there, like EagleJet and Globalpilottraining. Do you know any else - I don't.
How many pilots do they put in work a year. Maybe 100.
For Ryan, Easy, Lion, Tiger, AirAsia, Wizzair etc. 300 hr guys pay for the TR, but not to fly! And for the most it will be taken from your pay for X years.
So this said how many companies are still left that does not make you pay for TR and flying or whatever.
People complaining are those who want to go straight in as f/o on commercial airliner and see others taking a shortcut which they are not able to. Well that's life!
Think about guys who gets jobs purely because they know somebody - connections! Isn't that unfair too then! Another shortcut that probably hires more pilot's than pay2fly schemes by far. But for some reason that's acceptable..
Yes, pay2fly schemes are here to stay. So are other schemes where you pay your TR.
But guys!! This is only a small percentage of the aviation world.
There are many opportunities out there where you don't pay. You just have to work for it! Get your hands dirty so to speak.
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Old 2nd Sep 2010, 14:34
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No, this started and flourished long before the latest recession.

I remember the vociferous outcries on these forums 12 years ago about airlines "bonding" new (experienced) recruits for their type rating training costs. All this would supposedly change when the "global pilot shortage" came riding over the horizon. It didn't.

What did change, was the expansion of "lo-cost" operators, who not only bonded their new recuits, but changed the risk burden from employer to employee, by making these new recruits pay their own training costs upfront to either the airline or a contractor in order to qualify themselves for the position they were applying for.

The clue was in the name These companies raison d'etre was to strip out and reduce as many of their input costs as possible, in order to undercut the retail price in the traditional markets they sought to dominate and thrive in. There was little doubt, that they resented their inability to simply reduce the crew compliment. Unable to simply unscrew the right hand seat and throw it in to the parts bin, they sought to, at the very least turn it into a cost reduction exercise.

They learned 3 things very quickly. The first was they only needed someone who held a licence and rating to occupy the right hand seat, provided the regulator perceived there was sufficient experience in the left hand seat. Changes in legislation meant that only 200-250 hours was required to fit this bill. In this segment of the market, there were (and always had been) thousands of people clamouring for their chance at a bite of the apple. In fact there were so many, that it opened up whole new avenues of revenue potential, never mind cost reduction.

Secondly, changes in legislation also had the added bonus of extending the potential longevity of the left hand seat occupant by anything from 5 to 10 years, thereby eliminating overnight and for the next decade, any pressure on the supply and demand side of their requirements for Captains, even in a relatively bouyant marketplace.

Thirdly, training establishments expanded or came into being to supply these companies with their new low cost first officers. Beneficial agreements were entered into, to supply this market. For the airline, there was the prospect of a steady stream of low cost, ready bonded and "self insured risk" applicants to fill the right seat. For the training establishments, there was a rapid expansion in their turnover and profit created by this new found market. For the applicant there was the prospect of becoming an airline pilot, complete with polyester uniform and shiny hat, with only a couple of hundred hours experience, and for little more than the cost of a nice Mercedes with perhaps the additional cost of mid-range Audi, if they had to shell out for a type rating later on.

The losers in all of this were experienced pilots looking for work. For them many of the traditional vacancies were now being filled by this new industry. So successful was this industry, that it sought to reduce the experience base even further than the 200-250 hour range, by steamlining training and restricting qualifications even further. Something called "MPL" seemed to satisy the regulator in this respect, thereby increasing the applicant base still further, and offering the prospect of even lower costs for everybody in the chain.

Recession wasn't the mother of this particular invention It had been born long before that came about. However it did serve to highlight and nurture it, in many respects. What the recession did was to all but kill off the opportunities for experienced pilots looking for established jobs. Not only that, but the inevitable company collapses added to the numbers of those seeking the shrinking number of jobs available in their domestic markets. In the world of "lo-cost Zero-Hero" training, the recession slowed down the input of trainees to the right hand seat, and the shine suddenly tarnished, as the reality of those "airline pilot jobs" were substituted with nefarious titles such as "holding pools".

As recession ends, this machine will crank up once again. However not only will it continue to produce, but it also now has a large backlog of "stock" it needs to either dispose of, or sell at a bargain. That cronic oversuppply will undoubtably dampen increased demand for some considerable time.
Although I have referred to much of this in the context of "Lo-cost" airlines, the harsh reality is, that even those "legacy" or "traditional" operators, have had to adopt most of these practices in order to compete and survive. As they nurse their burnt fingers, they wont be any hurry to forget painful lessons, or return to the economic cost base they endured in previous decades.

So the suggestion that what is being termed "P2F" is either lunacy or a temporary phenomenon, is probably wishful thinking. Experienced pilots are swimming to the cash rich and demand hungry playgrounds of the Middle East and China. However it would be naive in the extreme to think that even employers in these markets are not looking to undercut their competition and reduce long term costs. At the moment they are investing a lot of money in an attempt to establish dominence. That investment brings with it many opportunities for those with the requisite experience. However that investment is for a purpose, and once that purpose is achieved, competition will become more cut-throat.

The world has changed. Airlines want to see a return for the investments they have made in new technology. One day they will get their wish in removing the right hand seat, but for now they will continue to either use it in either a cost reducing way, or where possible in a revenue producing way. To believe that "P2F" is going to evaporate anytime soon is naive in the extreme. However it is no less naive than "P2F" trainees believing that they are going to emerge into a world that needs, respects, or rewards pilots in the manner that it did in the past. There are clearly a lot of people on these forums who patently fail to want to face up to this reality. In fairness that can be partly explained by the fact that the industry is still in a state of rapid evolution. Nevertheless it is likely in the end stages of this particular metamorphosis, and people would be wise to realise this.
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Old 2nd Sep 2010, 14:37
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For things to pick up which was the original question then you need BA to hire and to hire big. They really drive the market in the UK and to a degree Ireland. That will induce the usual clearout from the likes of Flybe, Air Southwest, Logan, FR and Easy plus a few lucky ones from smaller niche outfits seeking to get onto jets and get some sort of roster stability and payrise no doubt.

Presently it would appear that Flybe thinks its MPL cadets and the use of a holdpool will be sufficient but I can't see this covering their needs with new aircraft and planned route expansion if enough people head for the door. Flybe already have a number of schools that refer to them so they would probably go down that route if their hand was forced.

The other TP operators will go to the usual schools and grab what they need. FR will continue to be oversubscribed doing what it does best, making money from training. Easy can dip back into the CTC holdpool (must have a few hundred swimming at the mo???) and use flexi crew plus any other new creative names/ideas it comes up with to fleece you. Sorry that should have read pay you a reduced salary in order to get a job Generally though they won't go for a 200hr low timer with no type rating and no hours on type and invest any money in them.

Smaller jet operators like Jet2 and the charters will probably have some slots come up as well although in the case of the latter many went through self funded TR's or CTC so I am not sure if there will be many opportunities there.

If Aer Arran can find a business angel then I would expect a clearout to the jets once they hire. It will involve paying for a rating though and the uncertainty of working for an airline in a very precarious position but hey...Aer Lingus may well hire but have historically taken integrated from Jerez and Oxford with a small number of modulars and type rated pilots.

Add into the mix the people heading to the sandpit then there may well be some movement in the market as some manager has to explain how they got the headcount so horribly wrong and they clamber to keep their aircraft in the air as pax demand comes back. Don't think it will be this side of Christmas though.
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Old 2nd Sep 2010, 15:19
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Thank you Rex, but I have to disagree with you.

A fact is defined as: a piece of information about circumstances that exist or events that have occurred

In reality and in opposition to what you stated earlier you do not have to be a "multi millionaire" to embark on this type of course. Far from it. You need the price of an upper mid range sports car (£85 -£95K) Then you might need the price of a upper mid range saloon (£30K). I accept that for many people that is an awful lot of money, and at least with the cars you will have both something tangible to show for it, and the prospect of recovering a reasonable percentage of your money after a few years.

What has happened is that even in the depths of this recession, there has been no shortage of applicants, and indeed no shortage of trainees turning up with the cash. Look at the established training providers in this market. Even though all of them cannot provide the same end of course prospects they could pre-recession, they are all still fully subscribed, even though they undoubtably need to work harder for that business.

Credit has been universally much harder to come by, but that doesn't mean the availability of money has dried up. Yesterdays unsecured credit, has become todays secured credit. Parents still have large sums of equity, pensions, savings, securities with which to provide loans or guarantees. The old windfall pools of inheritance are still out there for the lucky few. Money may be harder to come by, but it still churns out there. Be it training providers or the suppliers of upper mid range sports cars, they may have made changes to their marketing and product ranges, but they are still in most cases continuing to survive and sell their products.

You assume that people will see the T&C's deteriorate and say "no more!"

Why?

These people are buying into a dream (just like the car buyers.) Historically and save for a very few individuals, 200 hours and a CPL/IR would never have given you the opportunity of donning the polyester suit and sitting in the right hand seat of a commercial jet. Now in the evolved reality, it does at least to some degree, offer that very real prospect. Reading these forums for a week or two, and you quickly realize (if you didn't already) that there are legions of people who would give their right arm to satisfy that dream. The reality of achieving that dream may be very different from the perception, but as long as the dream exists there will be an unending queue of people vying for their own chance at it.

Again the recession hasn't created "P2F" it was developing long before the current recession. The recession has simply given it a greater prominence. As with almost everything else in macro-economics, it is born out of a complex interaction of events and realities that are never wholly predictable. "Simples" it is not! It is also evident that there clearly are whole swathes of people who want to be commercial pilots no matter what the reality. Everyone (including you and I) who is drawn to these forums is testament to that to a greater or lesser degree.

For facts, you need to look at the evidence of what has happened and what is happening. What you (or I) hope will happen in the future is speculation, prediction and opinion.
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Old 2nd Sep 2010, 19:54
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If you took a survey of 10 random people and asked them if they thought airline pilots made a very good living in terms of conditions and salary, I bet 7 or 8 out of the 10 would say yes. My point is that there is still this perception among the general public that the pilot is a very lucrative career (job). This perception is far more common than the reality of the situation. It is this perception that will keep on lowering the bar in terms of this being a respectable profession. Sad but true
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Old 2nd Sep 2010, 21:39
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Uncle Wiggily

You're right, and this is why Beazlebub is also correct, in very simplistic terms - people want to fly aeroplanes, and that's why this gravy train will never run dry.
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Old 6th Sep 2010, 11:07
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Congrats Dingo
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Old 6th Sep 2010, 11:18
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Picking up?

Dingowave,

Would you be kind enough to share the companies who are offering such interviews please?

Thanks,

Burger81
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Old 6th Sep 2010, 11:42
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Hi Dingowave, good for you

have you been flying much since you finished your training? What kind of flying have you been doing?

Regards.

OFC
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