No, this started and flourished long before the latest recession.
I remember the vociferous outcries on these forums 12 years ago about airlines "bonding" new (experienced) recruits for their type rating training costs. All this would supposedly change when the "global pilot shortage" came riding over the horizon. It didn't.
What did change, was the expansion of "lo-cost" operators, who not only bonded their new recuits, but changed the risk burden from employer to employee, by making these new recruits pay their own training costs upfront to either the airline or a contractor in order to qualify themselves for the position they were applying for.
The clue was in the name These companies raison d'etre was to strip out and reduce as many of their input costs as possible, in order to undercut the retail price in the traditional markets they sought to dominate and thrive in. There was little doubt, that they resented their inability to simply reduce the crew compliment. Unable to simply unscrew the right hand seat and throw it in to the parts bin, they sought to, at the very least turn it into a cost reduction exercise.
They learned 3 things very quickly. The first was they only needed someone who held a licence and rating to occupy the right hand seat, provided the regulator perceived there was sufficient experience in the left hand seat. Changes in legislation meant that only 200-250 hours was required to fit this bill. In this segment of the market, there were (and always had been) thousands of people clamouring for their chance at a bite of the apple. In fact there were so many, that it opened up whole new avenues of revenue potential, never mind cost reduction.
Secondly, changes in legislation also had the added bonus of extending the potential longevity of the left hand seat occupant by anything from 5 to 10 years, thereby eliminating overnight and for the next decade, any pressure on the supply and demand side of their requirements for Captains, even in a relatively bouyant marketplace.
Thirdly, training establishments expanded or came into being to supply these companies with their new low cost first officers. Beneficial agreements were entered into, to supply this market. For the airline, there was the prospect of a steady stream of low cost, ready bonded and "self insured risk" applicants to fill the right seat. For the training establishments, there was a rapid expansion in their turnover and profit created by this new found market. For the applicant there was the prospect of becoming an airline pilot, complete with polyester uniform and shiny hat, with only a couple of hundred hours experience, and for little more than the cost of a nice Mercedes with perhaps the additional cost of mid-range Audi, if they had to shell out for a type rating later on.
The losers in all of this were experienced pilots looking for work. For them many of the traditional vacancies were now being filled by this new industry. So successful was this industry, that it sought to reduce the experience base even further than the 200-250 hour range, by steamlining training and restricting qualifications even further. Something called "MPL" seemed to satisy the regulator in this respect, thereby increasing the applicant base still further, and offering the prospect of even lower costs for everybody in the chain.
Recession wasn't the mother of this particular invention It had been born long before that came about. However it did serve to highlight and nurture it, in many respects. What the recession did was to all but kill off the opportunities for experienced pilots looking for established jobs. Not only that, but the inevitable company collapses added to the numbers of those seeking the shrinking number of jobs available in their domestic markets. In the world of "lo-cost Zero-Hero" training, the recession slowed down the input of trainees to the right hand seat, and the shine suddenly tarnished, as the reality of those "airline pilot jobs" were substituted with nefarious titles such as "holding pools".
As recession ends, this machine will crank up once again. However not only will it continue to produce, but it also now has a large backlog of "stock" it needs to either dispose of, or sell at a bargain. That cronic oversuppply will undoubtably dampen increased demand for some considerable time.
Although I have referred to much of this in the context of "Lo-cost" airlines, the harsh reality is, that even those "legacy" or "traditional" operators, have had to adopt most of these practices in order to compete and survive. As they nurse their burnt fingers, they wont be any hurry to forget painful lessons, or return to the economic cost base they endured in previous decades.
So the suggestion that what is being termed "P2F" is either lunacy or a temporary phenomenon, is probably wishful thinking. Experienced pilots are swimming to the cash rich and demand hungry playgrounds of the Middle East and China. However it would be naive in the extreme to think that even employers in these markets are not looking to undercut their competition and reduce long term costs. At the moment they are investing a lot of money in an attempt to establish dominence. That investment brings with it many opportunities for those with the requisite experience. However that investment is for a purpose, and once that purpose is achieved, competition will become more cut-throat.
The world has changed. Airlines want to see a return for the investments they have made in new technology. One day they will get their wish in removing the right hand seat, but for now they will continue to either use it in either a cost reducing way, or where possible in a revenue producing way. To believe that "P2F" is going to evaporate anytime soon is naive in the extreme. However it is no less naive than "P2F" trainees believing that they are going to emerge into a world that needs, respects, or rewards pilots in the manner that it did in the past. There are clearly a lot of people on these forums who patently fail to want to face up to this reality. In fairness that can be partly explained by the fact that the industry is still in a state of rapid evolution. Nevertheless it is likely in the end stages of this particular metamorphosis, and people would be wise to realise this.