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Old 2nd Sep 2010, 15:19
  #15 (permalink)  
Bealzebub
 
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Thank you Rex, but I have to disagree with you.

A fact is defined as: a piece of information about circumstances that exist or events that have occurred

In reality and in opposition to what you stated earlier you do not have to be a "multi millionaire" to embark on this type of course. Far from it. You need the price of an upper mid range sports car (£85 -£95K) Then you might need the price of a upper mid range saloon (£30K). I accept that for many people that is an awful lot of money, and at least with the cars you will have both something tangible to show for it, and the prospect of recovering a reasonable percentage of your money after a few years.

What has happened is that even in the depths of this recession, there has been no shortage of applicants, and indeed no shortage of trainees turning up with the cash. Look at the established training providers in this market. Even though all of them cannot provide the same end of course prospects they could pre-recession, they are all still fully subscribed, even though they undoubtably need to work harder for that business.

Credit has been universally much harder to come by, but that doesn't mean the availability of money has dried up. Yesterdays unsecured credit, has become todays secured credit. Parents still have large sums of equity, pensions, savings, securities with which to provide loans or guarantees. The old windfall pools of inheritance are still out there for the lucky few. Money may be harder to come by, but it still churns out there. Be it training providers or the suppliers of upper mid range sports cars, they may have made changes to their marketing and product ranges, but they are still in most cases continuing to survive and sell their products.

You assume that people will see the T&C's deteriorate and say "no more!"

Why?

These people are buying into a dream (just like the car buyers.) Historically and save for a very few individuals, 200 hours and a CPL/IR would never have given you the opportunity of donning the polyester suit and sitting in the right hand seat of a commercial jet. Now in the evolved reality, it does at least to some degree, offer that very real prospect. Reading these forums for a week or two, and you quickly realize (if you didn't already) that there are legions of people who would give their right arm to satisfy that dream. The reality of achieving that dream may be very different from the perception, but as long as the dream exists there will be an unending queue of people vying for their own chance at it.

Again the recession hasn't created "P2F" it was developing long before the current recession. The recession has simply given it a greater prominence. As with almost everything else in macro-economics, it is born out of a complex interaction of events and realities that are never wholly predictable. "Simples" it is not! It is also evident that there clearly are whole swathes of people who want to be commercial pilots no matter what the reality. Everyone (including you and I) who is drawn to these forums is testament to that to a greater or lesser degree.

For facts, you need to look at the evidence of what has happened and what is happening. What you (or I) hope will happen in the future is speculation, prediction and opinion.
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