A glimmer of hope maybe
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AS Grasstrip says on a global basis taking into account the growth in the ME and Asia there are glimmers of hope but if you are looking at the UK and Ireland then things aren’t so rosy. For those of us fortunate to have a job its a matter of keeping your head down and getting continually shafted as our management conveniently use the financial climate in order to push through changes to our T&C’s that will have life changing implications. Some of us can’t or won’t up sticks due to family or relationships so its a matter of sitting tight and wondering if leaving those high paying jobs was really worth it after all.
In this part of the world the biggest driver in the market has always been BA. When they hire (either through growth in fleet numbers or to cover retirement bulges) it tends to suck up from the smaller operators and leave operators such as Flybe on the hunt for wannabes.
When I got my first job back in early 2007 there were huge opportunities. BA, BMI, Aer Lingus, Aer Arran, Flybe, Air Southwest, Air Wales, Ryanair, Eastern Airways, Loganair plus any number of the charters were all recruiting for a low houred wannabe. People were coming out of places like GECAT with NO hours and a type rating and already had a job lined up. The TRTO’s were acting as a defacto job agency as the airlines couldn’t get their hands on enough qualified f/o’s. It was an unbelievable time looking back at it now.
This time though I think things will be different. Firstly, petrol is no longer cheap and secondly credit is no longer available as freely. Also private equity houses and investors in general have wised up and are under no illusion that there is no money to be made from a start up airline. Look at Zoom or Silverjet if you want to see how it can all go badly wrong. Many of the smaller niche airlines have gone under and possibly a few more to go and certainly I see consolidation on the horizon with possible mergers across Europe. Mergers tend to be bad news for most parties except the lucky CEO that backed the right horse. Also we now have Pay2fly schemes whereby airlines can fill any seat it would seem through agencies like CTC at the drop of the hat and on reduced T&C’s. Who needs to employ a pilot fulltime when someone will go and work for 3 months here and there covering seasonal busy schedules.
There is also a trend to have us all working longer to retirement. Its not only ICAO raising the retirement age but also a factor of the capital markets which is forcing those of us who are fortunate enough to have a pension scheme to be stuck flying longer and longer. The way it is going I will be lucky enough to retire at 70-75. Compare that with the so called "old days" where you retired at 55. The Irish government just pushed out its retirement age to 68 I think it was the other week. Folks that is 20 more years of a guy/gal sitting in the LHS whilst you have passed command checks waiting for them to move on. Now I know for the average wannabe that time to command is probably not high on their agendas but it is certainly worth being part of your overall decision making process now, particularly if you are starting out say in your mid or late 30's.
I agree that there is a “glimmer” but from a UK/Irish perspective I would say that it will be a few years yet before we start to see some movement and it will be nothing on the scale of what it was a few years ago.
In this part of the world the biggest driver in the market has always been BA. When they hire (either through growth in fleet numbers or to cover retirement bulges) it tends to suck up from the smaller operators and leave operators such as Flybe on the hunt for wannabes.
When I got my first job back in early 2007 there were huge opportunities. BA, BMI, Aer Lingus, Aer Arran, Flybe, Air Southwest, Air Wales, Ryanair, Eastern Airways, Loganair plus any number of the charters were all recruiting for a low houred wannabe. People were coming out of places like GECAT with NO hours and a type rating and already had a job lined up. The TRTO’s were acting as a defacto job agency as the airlines couldn’t get their hands on enough qualified f/o’s. It was an unbelievable time looking back at it now.
This time though I think things will be different. Firstly, petrol is no longer cheap and secondly credit is no longer available as freely. Also private equity houses and investors in general have wised up and are under no illusion that there is no money to be made from a start up airline. Look at Zoom or Silverjet if you want to see how it can all go badly wrong. Many of the smaller niche airlines have gone under and possibly a few more to go and certainly I see consolidation on the horizon with possible mergers across Europe. Mergers tend to be bad news for most parties except the lucky CEO that backed the right horse. Also we now have Pay2fly schemes whereby airlines can fill any seat it would seem through agencies like CTC at the drop of the hat and on reduced T&C’s. Who needs to employ a pilot fulltime when someone will go and work for 3 months here and there covering seasonal busy schedules.
There is also a trend to have us all working longer to retirement. Its not only ICAO raising the retirement age but also a factor of the capital markets which is forcing those of us who are fortunate enough to have a pension scheme to be stuck flying longer and longer. The way it is going I will be lucky enough to retire at 70-75. Compare that with the so called "old days" where you retired at 55. The Irish government just pushed out its retirement age to 68 I think it was the other week. Folks that is 20 more years of a guy/gal sitting in the LHS whilst you have passed command checks waiting for them to move on. Now I know for the average wannabe that time to command is probably not high on their agendas but it is certainly worth being part of your overall decision making process now, particularly if you are starting out say in your mid or late 30's.
I agree that there is a “glimmer” but from a UK/Irish perspective I would say that it will be a few years yet before we start to see some movement and it will be nothing on the scale of what it was a few years ago.
Thread Starter
Guys, I haven't flipped from Bear to Bull you know! Far from it.
I expect house prices to decline in absolute terms by 3% over the next 12 months and 4% in the 12 months after that. Then flatline for several years in Real Terms. This March asking price figures are appalling - around 13 times down on the historical norm. A fall in house prices already being recorded in Feb - bear in mind that Easter is around the corned and thats to house sales what Dec25th is to High Street sales...
I expect BoE Base Interest Rates to rise to 6% within five years. Unemployment will not go below 2.6 million for three years. A technical recession may or may not reoccur but a quarter of negative growth will sometime in 2010/11.
Quite a few airlines are holed below the water and in serious danger of sinking. The current and future stormy conditions will force them to the bottom. Make no mistake.
Though currently I know of no unemployed pilots who had >1,000hrs jet when they lost their jobs.
Mostly I thought it would be a bit less daunting for Newbies if we didn't just spin up the multi-millon post Upturn/Downturn is Upon Us thread...
WWW
I expect house prices to decline in absolute terms by 3% over the next 12 months and 4% in the 12 months after that. Then flatline for several years in Real Terms. This March asking price figures are appalling - around 13 times down on the historical norm. A fall in house prices already being recorded in Feb - bear in mind that Easter is around the corned and thats to house sales what Dec25th is to High Street sales...
I expect BoE Base Interest Rates to rise to 6% within five years. Unemployment will not go below 2.6 million for three years. A technical recession may or may not reoccur but a quarter of negative growth will sometime in 2010/11.
Quite a few airlines are holed below the water and in serious danger of sinking. The current and future stormy conditions will force them to the bottom. Make no mistake.
Though currently I know of no unemployed pilots who had >1,000hrs jet when they lost their jobs.
Mostly I thought it would be a bit less daunting for Newbies if we didn't just spin up the multi-millon post Upturn/Downturn is Upon Us thread...
WWW
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I just found this on AOPA's news page.
AOPA Online: FAA forecasts dwindling student pilot numbers
And yes, I know they're referring to the States, but what do people think of the supply and demand potential (less pilots V future growth)?
AOPA Online: FAA forecasts dwindling student pilot numbers
And yes, I know they're referring to the States, but what do people think of the supply and demand potential (less pilots V future growth)?
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Let's not forget the oil price. It has never been blamed for the recession, although it played a major role. It has been on the rise for a while now, and I reckon on a minimum of $100 a barrel by the end of this year, first quarter of next.
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What bulge? Maybe a lucky few might be fully funded in their pension and retire but most will now be working longer to fund their pensions facilitated by ICAO raising the retirement age.
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Some depressing and sad news.
Highland Airways went into administration today. Many experienced turboprop pilots now actively seeking work.
BBC News - Highland Airways goes into administration
Highland Airways went into administration today. Many experienced turboprop pilots now actively seeking work.
BBC News - Highland Airways goes into administration
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Airlines climbing out of recession: IATA
March 30, 2010
By Jonathan Lynn
GENEVA (Reuters) - Airlines are climbing out of recession with further strong increases for passenger travel and freight in February, industry association IATA said on Tuesday.
One sign of recovery was record capacity usage for passenger travel in February, traditionally the weakest month for air travel, the International Air Transport Association said.
"We are moving in the right direction. In two to three months, the industry should be back to pre-recession traffic levels," said IATA Director-General Giovanni Bisignani.
Passenger demand in February was 9.5 percent higher than a year earlier, but supply increased by only 1.9 percent.
The result was a passenger load factor -- a measure of how full planes fly -- of 75.5 percent, or a February record in seasonally adjusted terms of 79.3 percent, IATA said.
Cargo demand grew 26.5 percent, said IATA, which estimates that 30 percent of world trade by value is moved by air freight, making its data an important indicator of global commerce flows and overall economic activity.
IATA said February 2009 had marked the bottom of the cycle for passenger traffic during the recession, and passenger demand would need to recover by a further 1.4 percent to return to pre-crisis levels.
Cargo traffic, which plunged much further than passenger business, as demand for goods plummeted in the crisis, must rise a further 3 percent to regain pre-crisis levels after hitting a low in December 2008, IATA said.
"This is still not a full recovery. The task ahead is to adjust to two years of lost growth," Bisignani said in a statement.
IATA, which groups about 230 airlines, including Air China, Lufthansa, British Airways, Singapore Airlines and Skywest, forecast earlier this month that airlines would lose $2.8 billion this year after losing $9.4 billion in 2009.
As usual, regional demand patterns varied, with European and North American carriers showing the weakest growth in February, while Asia-Pacific carriers saw strong increases.
Middle East airlines recorded passenger demand growth of 25.8 percent, the strongest of any region as travel markets develop in the area and local carriers compete on long-haul connections to Asia via Middle Eastern hubs, it said.
Latin American carriers saw a 41.9 percent increase in cargo demand.
*Reporting by Jonathan Lynn, editing by Will Waterman
It makes a nice change to read something positive about the industry..
By Jonathan Lynn
GENEVA (Reuters) - Airlines are climbing out of recession with further strong increases for passenger travel and freight in February, industry association IATA said on Tuesday.
One sign of recovery was record capacity usage for passenger travel in February, traditionally the weakest month for air travel, the International Air Transport Association said.
"We are moving in the right direction. In two to three months, the industry should be back to pre-recession traffic levels," said IATA Director-General Giovanni Bisignani.
Passenger demand in February was 9.5 percent higher than a year earlier, but supply increased by only 1.9 percent.
The result was a passenger load factor -- a measure of how full planes fly -- of 75.5 percent, or a February record in seasonally adjusted terms of 79.3 percent, IATA said.
Cargo demand grew 26.5 percent, said IATA, which estimates that 30 percent of world trade by value is moved by air freight, making its data an important indicator of global commerce flows and overall economic activity.
IATA said February 2009 had marked the bottom of the cycle for passenger traffic during the recession, and passenger demand would need to recover by a further 1.4 percent to return to pre-crisis levels.
Cargo traffic, which plunged much further than passenger business, as demand for goods plummeted in the crisis, must rise a further 3 percent to regain pre-crisis levels after hitting a low in December 2008, IATA said.
"This is still not a full recovery. The task ahead is to adjust to two years of lost growth," Bisignani said in a statement.
IATA, which groups about 230 airlines, including Air China, Lufthansa, British Airways, Singapore Airlines and Skywest, forecast earlier this month that airlines would lose $2.8 billion this year after losing $9.4 billion in 2009.
As usual, regional demand patterns varied, with European and North American carriers showing the weakest growth in February, while Asia-Pacific carriers saw strong increases.
Middle East airlines recorded passenger demand growth of 25.8 percent, the strongest of any region as travel markets develop in the area and local carriers compete on long-haul connections to Asia via Middle Eastern hubs, it said.
Latin American carriers saw a 41.9 percent increase in cargo demand.
*Reporting by Jonathan Lynn, editing by Will Waterman
It makes a nice change to read something positive about the industry..
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The Glass is Half Full - Really?
I've no flying experience except a few trial lessons, but I love it.
I'm about to graduate with an Aerospace Engineering degree and I have a job lined up with a very prestigious aero engine manufacturer.
Despite this I'm still a wannabe. I still want to fly aircraft for a living but I'm nervous. There may be a just glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel but who is to say that the training programmes will go back to the way they used to be?
By that I mean, I have a nasty feeling that pay-to-fly schemes are here to stay and unfortunately in the future they could be the only window into the industry for low hour pilots.
I can't see the upturn, when it comes, changing any of that.
I'm about to graduate with an Aerospace Engineering degree and I have a job lined up with a very prestigious aero engine manufacturer.
Despite this I'm still a wannabe. I still want to fly aircraft for a living but I'm nervous. There may be a just glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel but who is to say that the training programmes will go back to the way they used to be?
By that I mean, I have a nasty feeling that pay-to-fly schemes are here to stay and unfortunately in the future they could be the only window into the industry for low hour pilots.
I can't see the upturn, when it comes, changing any of that.
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imarkd
I have the same nasty feeling you have about pay-to-fly. The only thing we can hope is that when the economy rises again, the pilots demand will be so high that not only who has the big bucks can join a major!
I have the same nasty feeling you have about pay-to-fly. The only thing we can hope is that when the economy rises again, the pilots demand will be so high that not only who has the big bucks can join a major!
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By that I mean, I have a nasty feeling that pay-to-fly schemes are here to stay and unfortunately in the future they could be the only window into the industry for low hour pilots.
1. Some companies are taking on PTF but only with limited line hours. Once completed you're out, on the dole and making way for the next low houred PTF candidate. They are not a lot of good if you have 300 hours or less on type.
http://www.pprune.org/terms-endearme...ng-j-curd.html
2. There are some unscrupulous operators out there exploiting wannabees through the emerging PTF culture - some of you guys are investing large sums of cash without any training or prospects of seeing your money back (let alone a job).
http://www.pprune.org/airlines-airpo...ek-merged.html
3. The overall impact on these schemes is not positive for the long term. That means the future of your industry in respect of safety and pay conditions.
http://www.pprune.org/terms-endearme...-aviation.html
Dont want to put you off, just want to advise caution. Sometimes its more impressive to show that you have committed to flying and the pilot community as a whole by avoiding career fast tracking and by getting some good solid experience on SEP/MEP activities. It will make you a better pilot, you'll have some fun and you will get a job based on merit rather than cash.
May the force be with you.
