Guys, I haven't flipped from Bear to Bull you know! Far from it.
I expect house prices to decline in absolute terms by 3% over the next 12 months and 4% in the 12 months after that. Then flatline for several years in Real Terms. This March asking price figures are appalling - around 13 times down on the historical norm. A fall in house prices already being recorded in Feb - bear in mind that Easter is around the corned and thats to house sales what Dec25th is to High Street sales...
I expect BoE Base Interest Rates to rise to 6% within five years. Unemployment will not go below 2.6 million for three years. A technical recession may or may not reoccur but a quarter of negative growth will sometime in 2010/11.
Quite a few airlines are holed below the water and in serious danger of sinking. The current and future stormy conditions will force them to the bottom. Make no mistake.
Though currently I know of no unemployed pilots who had >1,000hrs jet when they lost their jobs.
Mostly I thought it would be a bit less daunting for Newbies if we didn't just spin up the multi-millon post Upturn/Downturn is Upon Us thread...
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