AS Grasstrip says on a global basis taking into account the growth in the ME and Asia there are glimmers of hope but if you are looking at the UK and Ireland then things aren’t so rosy. For those of us fortunate to have a job its a matter of keeping your head down and getting continually shafted as our management conveniently use the financial climate in order to push through changes to our T&C’s that will have life changing implications. Some of us can’t or won’t up sticks due to family or relationships so its a matter of sitting tight and wondering if leaving those high paying jobs was really worth it after all.
In this part of the world the biggest driver in the market has always been BA. When they hire (either through growth in fleet numbers or to cover retirement bulges) it tends to suck up from the smaller operators and leave operators such as Flybe on the hunt for wannabes.
When I got my first job back in early 2007 there were huge opportunities. BA, BMI, Aer Lingus, Aer Arran, Flybe, Air Southwest, Air Wales, Ryanair, Eastern Airways, Loganair plus any number of the charters were all recruiting for a low houred wannabe. People were coming out of places like GECAT with NO hours and a type rating and already had a job lined up. The TRTO’s were acting as a defacto job agency as the airlines couldn’t get their hands on enough qualified f/o’s. It was an unbelievable time looking back at it now.
This time though I think things will be different. Firstly, petrol is no longer cheap and secondly credit is no longer available as freely. Also private equity houses and investors in general have wised up and are under no illusion that there is no money to be made from a start up airline. Look at Zoom or Silverjet if you want to see how it can all go badly wrong. Many of the smaller niche airlines have gone under and possibly a few more to go and certainly I see consolidation on the horizon with possible mergers across Europe. Mergers tend to be bad news for most parties except the lucky CEO that backed the right horse. Also we now have Pay2fly schemes whereby airlines can fill any seat it would seem through agencies like CTC at the drop of the hat and on reduced T&C’s. Who needs to employ a pilot fulltime when someone will go and work for 3 months here and there covering seasonal busy schedules.
There is also a trend to have us all working longer to retirement. Its not only ICAO raising the retirement age but also a factor of the capital markets which is forcing those of us who are fortunate enough to have a pension scheme to be stuck flying longer and longer. The way it is going I will be lucky enough to retire at 70-75. Compare that with the so called "old days" where you retired at 55. The Irish government just pushed out its retirement age to 68 I think it was the other week. Folks that is 20 more years of a guy/gal sitting in the LHS whilst you have passed command checks waiting for them to move on. Now I know for the average wannabe that time to command is probably not high on their agendas but it is certainly worth being part of your overall decision making process now, particularly if you are starting out say in your mid or late 30's.
I agree that there is a “glimmer” but from a UK/Irish perspective I would say that it will be a few years yet before we start to see some movement and it will be nothing on the scale of what it was a few years ago.