Are things slowing down?
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Personally, although the biggest threat to aviation in the near term is a likely recession, I'm more concerned about the bigger threat in the longer term (5-10 years) - namely the end of cheap oil. The stuff just isn't being made anymore. 60% of oil producing nations (including US, UK, Norway) are in terminal production decline. The forecasts for the energy that supplies the worlds economic growth are increasingly relying on dubious figures from OPEC which many geological professionals (including those who've spent most of their careers with OPEC companies) claim are fabricated and downright wrong.
Ok - so it's probably not going to hit within the next year or two (in fact a recession in 2008-09 will probably taper oil demand and therefore push the problems back a little) but the long-term prospects for aviation 10-20 years away really don't look good.
I've mentioned this a few times in the past on here and have been surprised at the lack of interest in the subject amongst the pilots of the future. Am I the only one concerned about this?
Ok - so it's probably not going to hit within the next year or two (in fact a recession in 2008-09 will probably taper oil demand and therefore push the problems back a little) but the long-term prospects for aviation 10-20 years away really don't look good.
I've mentioned this a few times in the past on here and have been surprised at the lack of interest in the subject amongst the pilots of the future. Am I the only one concerned about this?
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Jeez........ This thread is depressing, think i might go buy myself some industrial strength elastic bands and create my own green wind up airliner. I'll call it the Chavliner 2000. Watch this space branson!!
If you were to worry about everything bad thats going on in the world you'd have no time left to appreciate whats good. If its that bad get out now, i'll be happy to use up your carbon footprint for you.
I'm still gonna chase the dream, companies like Airbus and boeing will have contingency plans to keep our shiny jets in the sky.
Use half the pax space to ferry cattle and fit the rest of the seats with bottom suckers while simultaneously force feeding the pax beans.....mephane power!!!
If you were to worry about everything bad thats going on in the world you'd have no time left to appreciate whats good. If its that bad get out now, i'll be happy to use up your carbon footprint for you.
I'm still gonna chase the dream, companies like Airbus and boeing will have contingency plans to keep our shiny jets in the sky.
Use half the pax space to ferry cattle and fit the rest of the seats with bottom suckers while simultaneously force feeding the pax beans.....mephane power!!!
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how you can go from talk of redundancies to recruiting in the space of a matter of weeks
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Thomas Cook offered voluntary redundancy to senior Captains and got more than they needed. I've heard 1.5X annual pay to leave. It was supposedly done to balance a top heavy roster, but there is prrobably a strong business case for it too. I guess this is what happens in a merger when there are twice as many bean counters running "what ifs" through MS Excel. It might inject some new life into the company by lifting a lot of people up the ladder a notch though.
They are still taking people straight out of flight school. They have cadets in training right now and I won't be surprised if they recruit more low hour pilots as well. You won't see an ad for it if they do because they already know where to find them, so you'll have to keep an eye on the FTO employment lists in January. The fact they want some FOs with time on type and will take the low hour non rated cadets as well does support the rumour that they are roster balancing.
They are still taking people straight out of flight school. They have cadets in training right now and I won't be surprised if they recruit more low hour pilots as well. You won't see an ad for it if they do because they already know where to find them, so you'll have to keep an eye on the FTO employment lists in January. The fact they want some FOs with time on type and will take the low hour non rated cadets as well does support the rumour that they are roster balancing.
Right. So we have recruitment on a one out, one in basis. So no net growth in the pilots employed. Meanwhile First Choice are talking about redundancies. This is a crazy business.
WWW
WWW
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Philpaz - have you tried taking your entrepeneurial suggestion onto Dragon's Den eh? I'm sure they'd love the idea!!! 
I love it!!!!! 
On a more serious note, V6g, yes I share your concerns.........From a purely selfish point of view, I hope I'll be drawing my pension by the time this problem really comes to the fore.Certainly, the current high price of crude is already biting hard.........
I love it!!!!! On a more serious note, V6g, yes I share your concerns.........From a purely selfish point of view, I hope I'll be drawing my pension by the time this problem really comes to the fore.Certainly, the current high price of crude is already biting hard.........
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Further news indicates TCX will be looking for 40+ FO's to recruit with 10 internal Command upgrades...
40+ type rated guys could be an issue, unless some young Airbus pilots fancy some mixed fleet experience, could be good news for some CTC cadets and might generate some movement in the regional operators if they don't meet the target...
That said, this is just a "snippet" of how quickly things can change, I wouldn't be tempted to go and book an intergrated £75,000 course just yet!
40+ type rated guys could be an issue, unless some young Airbus pilots fancy some mixed fleet experience, could be good news for some CTC cadets and might generate some movement in the regional operators if they don't meet the target...
That said, this is just a "snippet" of how quickly things can change, I wouldn't be tempted to go and book an intergrated £75,000 course just yet!
Last edited by JB007; 15th Dec 2007 at 13:53. Reason: Just a further bit of advice....
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There are still alot of jobs there. I got a job a week after finishing my training on a B737 which was in the last few weeks with only 230hrs! Now due to start the type rating in the coming months. It's a hard slog alrite but if you put in the work and are determined it'll work out for you!
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I didn't post the item about redundancy to demonstrate growth, rather to answer the question asked about how they went from threatened redundancy to hiring so quickly. I would suggest that an airline doesn't focus on growth during a merger, rather efficiency, cost cutting, integration and restructuring. The number of mergers underway supports the generel view of this thread that things are slowing down.
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Blimey P111lot! Been down the pub for Sunday lunch and had one too many?? That was a bit of a unnecessary post.... didn't add much to the debate did it? Makes you look like the tw*t...
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Huh, god dammit it's crazy indrustry.
So expensive training and not so great chances to get a job.
Is there any tables/figures exist to show how many new pilots will app. "graduate" per year, and how much new pilots are needed?
But anyways, I want to do it no matter what the figures will show
So expensive training and not so great chances to get a job.
Is there any tables/figures exist to show how many new pilots will app. "graduate" per year, and how much new pilots are needed?
But anyways, I want to do it no matter what the figures will show
With Rightmove showing UK house prices down 3.2% in the past month at least when you get to the hills you might be able to buy a place there..Oh, and London was down over 6% in a month so maybe you will be just as well staying in the City rather than fleeing to the hills..
The great British housing cash machine just malfunctioned and it looks serious.
WWW
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The Browne Stuff
I’m not convinced by the 7 year, 18 year or what ever year economic cycle. You can only measure it once it’s happened. But what is fact, is that economies do go in cycles. As we’ve just experienced the longest boom in living memory it doesn’t take a genius to predict what’s around the corner.
Our Gordon has taken the credit (no pun intended) for presiding over our recent economic miracle. An economic miracle that has been fuelled almost solely on cheap credit - and people called him the prudent chancellor! He’s actively encouraged people to get into dept by introducing loans for university education. A change of thinking which has possibly spilled over into aviation.
A large part of the boom has been due to rising house prices, people re-mortgaging, spending the money and keeping the economy going. It certainly not due our making things i.e. cars, TV, cookers etc. Ture we do make some, but most of the companies are forign owned. No so in France, Germany or Italy. Okay a large part of our gross economic output comes from banking, but I’ll be buggered if I know how this money is generated.
People are under the illusion that low interest rates and low inflation are purely a good thing. Not so if you wish to buy a house, as the price is set on what people are able to borrow. Low inflation fails to depreciate the loan as quickly over time and any increase in interest rates has a much greater affect, and for longer. I for one would rather borrow £50,000 at 10% to buy a house than £100,000 at 5% to buy the same house anyday. Okay the interest may be the same, but the capital still has to be paid off. Forget supply and demand, house prices are driven by greed and fear!
How all this will effect the airline industry? I don’t know but if people don’t have as much to spend and they can’t get the cheap credit we’ve all become accustomed to, it can’t be good.
So if Gordon has taken the credit for the boom, will he take the flak when the Browne stuff hits the Fan? I doubt it!
The one bit of good news for the younger wannabees without their own house, is that they may be more affordable in the future.
Happy days indeed.
Tone the Wone
Our Gordon has taken the credit (no pun intended) for presiding over our recent economic miracle. An economic miracle that has been fuelled almost solely on cheap credit - and people called him the prudent chancellor! He’s actively encouraged people to get into dept by introducing loans for university education. A change of thinking which has possibly spilled over into aviation.
A large part of the boom has been due to rising house prices, people re-mortgaging, spending the money and keeping the economy going. It certainly not due our making things i.e. cars, TV, cookers etc. Ture we do make some, but most of the companies are forign owned. No so in France, Germany or Italy. Okay a large part of our gross economic output comes from banking, but I’ll be buggered if I know how this money is generated.
People are under the illusion that low interest rates and low inflation are purely a good thing. Not so if you wish to buy a house, as the price is set on what people are able to borrow. Low inflation fails to depreciate the loan as quickly over time and any increase in interest rates has a much greater affect, and for longer. I for one would rather borrow £50,000 at 10% to buy a house than £100,000 at 5% to buy the same house anyday. Okay the interest may be the same, but the capital still has to be paid off. Forget supply and demand, house prices are driven by greed and fear!
How all this will effect the airline industry? I don’t know but if people don’t have as much to spend and they can’t get the cheap credit we’ve all become accustomed to, it can’t be good.
So if Gordon has taken the credit for the boom, will he take the flak when the Browne stuff hits the Fan? I doubt it!
The one bit of good news for the younger wannabees without their own house, is that they may be more affordable in the future.
Happy days indeed.
Tone the Wone
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Londonmet falling house prices could be an issue for many wannabees... how many have funded training via equity withdrawal or securing a loan on bank of mum & dads house??
The "machine" that has provided the money to banks to generate mortgages over the past 5 years (the "securitisation" or "Asset Backed Securities" market) is broken... kaput.... not working.... closed for business.... 50% of mortgages originated by banks in the first half of this year were funded by this "machine" that has blown up in spectacular style .... WWW is NOT wrong in what he is saying... it might not make nice comfortable armchair reading for the everyday man in the street (or wanabee) who has no idea what a CDO, asset backed commercial paper conduit, SIV etc are or how they can effect his/her life but these vehicles have been big drivers of the UK mortgage market and they are not working at the moment. A fix will be found eventually but it WILL impact everyone and the net result is likely to be slower economic growth = less consumer spending = less holidays/business travel = weaker job market for pilots....
This is acutally one of the most informative and important threads I have seen on Pprune for a while (you said it yourself a few post earlier)... if you are about to take of £70-80k of debt you have to be aware of these issues... especially if you are putting you parents house up as collateral !!
The "machine" that has provided the money to banks to generate mortgages over the past 5 years (the "securitisation" or "Asset Backed Securities" market) is broken... kaput.... not working.... closed for business.... 50% of mortgages originated by banks in the first half of this year were funded by this "machine" that has blown up in spectacular style .... WWW is NOT wrong in what he is saying... it might not make nice comfortable armchair reading for the everyday man in the street (or wanabee) who has no idea what a CDO, asset backed commercial paper conduit, SIV etc are or how they can effect his/her life but these vehicles have been big drivers of the UK mortgage market and they are not working at the moment. A fix will be found eventually but it WILL impact everyone and the net result is likely to be slower economic growth = less consumer spending = less holidays/business travel = weaker job market for pilots....
This is acutally one of the most informative and important threads I have seen on Pprune for a while (you said it yourself a few post earlier)... if you are about to take of £70-80k of debt you have to be aware of these issues... especially if you are putting you parents house up as collateral !!
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GSB,
Yes I know all the facts thanks.
WWW is right in some of what she says but like anything one must take it with a pinch of salt. I just don't like the apparant dramatisation "it looks serious". Yes it probably does. However, well informed choices with regards to taking equity from a property won't send you off the rails....unless you opted for a unrealistc self cert re-mortgage with over the top "rental income" that is.
Times are tough, they always have been. However, people must be informed of the true facts that things aren't looking like they'll improve for a while. If anything you'll see a -ve trend on most aspects of everyday life. This in turn, as you pointed out to me, will have an effect on the airline industry.
I am just curious about the effect posts on a forum from knowledgeable people will have on people making decisions about their future careers. It only takes a few posts about how bad it is for people to start saying "jesus, if this is the case then i'll chop starting my training". This is bad and has been witnessed already on this thread.
By all means use this thread as an information source but be careful as to consider the effect it will have on some individuals that's all i'm saying.
Yes I know all the facts thanks.
WWW is right in some of what she says but like anything one must take it with a pinch of salt. I just don't like the apparant dramatisation "it looks serious". Yes it probably does. However, well informed choices with regards to taking equity from a property won't send you off the rails....unless you opted for a unrealistc self cert re-mortgage with over the top "rental income" that is.
Times are tough, they always have been. However, people must be informed of the true facts that things aren't looking like they'll improve for a while. If anything you'll see a -ve trend on most aspects of everyday life. This in turn, as you pointed out to me, will have an effect on the airline industry.
I am just curious about the effect posts on a forum from knowledgeable people will have on people making decisions about their future careers. It only takes a few posts about how bad it is for people to start saying "jesus, if this is the case then i'll chop starting my training". This is bad and has been witnessed already on this thread.
By all means use this thread as an information source but be careful as to consider the effect it will have on some individuals that's all i'm saying.
I can understand that people here are calling for a calm and balanced debate and that Wannabes need to come to a broad and non-panicked view.
To reach this Nirvana someone has to provide the bearish point of view and highlight the more negative spectrum of current risks. Thats me. Its me because its my genuine view and its me because nobody else much was being a big bad bear and its me because that fact helps stimulate a lot of debate and its a big its that warrants that.
Its not just me being some kind of crank. Although I was being very bearish way back earlier this year my views have since gone very mainstream. For example todays Telegraph has this:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...cession118.xml
----------------------------------------------------------
UK recession forecast put at 50-50
Britain now faces a 50-50 chance of a recession next year amid the "toxic combination" of a housing market slump and the fallout from the credit crunch, experts have warned.
The chilling warning underlines the severity of the downturn facing the UK in the coming months. Economists at investment bank Dresdner Kleinwort said the economy faced a major slowdown in the next year, with the worst pain likely to be felt in the first three months of the year.
The bank's chief European economist David Owen said: "We are looking at a toxic combination of headwinds facing the economy.
"The chances of a recession in the UK next year are close to 50pc - as they are in the US."
-----------------------------------------------
Although back in the summer I believed this would be the case all I had was anecdotals plus some fairly esoteric analysis of very early data. But today you have major quality print Editors running pieces like that above. So lets assume, just for a minute, that we do enter a UK/US recession (to consecutive quarters of negative growth) in 2008.
In every other recession there has ever been a clutch of airlines go bust. Another clutch retrench. And sometimes a couple will expand to fill the gap. Pilot terms and conditions usually take a battering. The minute experienced pilots are out of work then Wannabe hiring ceases.
At this moment the schools are all stocked to capacity with people training. Indeed they were fighting over hiring instructors only a couple of months ago. So next year there will be around 500 people churned out by the schools all looking for a first job. If we have a recession and the airlines ALL slam the door shut then the job situation is going to get uglier than ever before quicker than ever before.
You also have the reality this time that this will be the first recession post JAA and therefore there will be an unknown quantity of French/Italian/Spanish/Dutch/Scandy/Lithuanian pilots all out of work with type ratings and adequate to excellent English.
The real kicker this time is that the recession may arrive in combination with a real tightening of credit for people who trained on variable loan rates or equity borrowed against a mortgage. If Mum loses her job in the recession and Dad's re-mortgage rate jumps 40% and they can't meet the new bigger mortgage then young Joe Wannabe might end up seeing his parents lose their home whilst he flips burgers with his CPL.
As I keep saying, my advice in the current climate is NOT to train the quick and expensive way in a rush to secure a jet job asap. Train slowly, cheaply, pay off debt as you go and keep your old job or contacts in the background as backup.
Good luck,
WWW
To reach this Nirvana someone has to provide the bearish point of view and highlight the more negative spectrum of current risks. Thats me. Its me because its my genuine view and its me because nobody else much was being a big bad bear and its me because that fact helps stimulate a lot of debate and its a big its that warrants that.
Its not just me being some kind of crank. Although I was being very bearish way back earlier this year my views have since gone very mainstream. For example todays Telegraph has this:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...cession118.xml
----------------------------------------------------------
UK recession forecast put at 50-50
Britain now faces a 50-50 chance of a recession next year amid the "toxic combination" of a housing market slump and the fallout from the credit crunch, experts have warned.
The chilling warning underlines the severity of the downturn facing the UK in the coming months. Economists at investment bank Dresdner Kleinwort said the economy faced a major slowdown in the next year, with the worst pain likely to be felt in the first three months of the year.
The bank's chief European economist David Owen said: "We are looking at a toxic combination of headwinds facing the economy.
"The chances of a recession in the UK next year are close to 50pc - as they are in the US."
-----------------------------------------------
Although back in the summer I believed this would be the case all I had was anecdotals plus some fairly esoteric analysis of very early data. But today you have major quality print Editors running pieces like that above. So lets assume, just for a minute, that we do enter a UK/US recession (to consecutive quarters of negative growth) in 2008.
In every other recession there has ever been a clutch of airlines go bust. Another clutch retrench. And sometimes a couple will expand to fill the gap. Pilot terms and conditions usually take a battering. The minute experienced pilots are out of work then Wannabe hiring ceases.
At this moment the schools are all stocked to capacity with people training. Indeed they were fighting over hiring instructors only a couple of months ago. So next year there will be around 500 people churned out by the schools all looking for a first job. If we have a recession and the airlines ALL slam the door shut then the job situation is going to get uglier than ever before quicker than ever before.
You also have the reality this time that this will be the first recession post JAA and therefore there will be an unknown quantity of French/Italian/Spanish/Dutch/Scandy/Lithuanian pilots all out of work with type ratings and adequate to excellent English.
The real kicker this time is that the recession may arrive in combination with a real tightening of credit for people who trained on variable loan rates or equity borrowed against a mortgage. If Mum loses her job in the recession and Dad's re-mortgage rate jumps 40% and they can't meet the new bigger mortgage then young Joe Wannabe might end up seeing his parents lose their home whilst he flips burgers with his CPL.
As I keep saying, my advice in the current climate is NOT to train the quick and expensive way in a rush to secure a jet job asap. Train slowly, cheaply, pay off debt as you go and keep your old job or contacts in the background as backup.
Good luck,
WWW