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Old 5th Dec 2007, 16:18
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Boom in 2008!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It will all look brighter in the new year; these factors will help

Low Unemplyment (Ever)
Low Interest Rates (historically correct)
Shortage of housing stock - no big falls
Ageing pilot population (Retirements)
Lo-Co pilots getting jaded then retiring due negativity (Older ones)
Oil prices have eased


RVR 800. A few points.

The rates of unemployment directly have little to do with pilot recruitment as its not exactly a job that can be applied for from the dole office queue.

Interest rates may be low in nominal values. However, if you owe 5 times salary on a 25yr mortgage now re-setting at 6.75% you are just a facked as someone in 1992 who was struggling to pay a 12% mortgage on 3.3 times salary given that average house prices are now 9 times average earning instead of 5 times as in 1992. The same percentage of net income is required to service the debt and just as in the early 90's it can't be so CRASH here we come as people default.

Shortage of housing is an illusion. In every city centre there are thousands of empty flats for sale that nobody wants to buy.

Ageing pilots makes me giggle. The CAA SRG website shows that next year less than 500 pilots will reach retirement age. The same output is exceeded by OATS and CABAIR alone.

Lo-Co pilots such as myself will NOT get jaded as a regime of non-night flying fixed roster lifestyle coupled with six figure salaries couple with many like me being in their early 30's means retirements will be a loooooooong time in arriving.

You think oil is going to fall. Hmm.

WWW
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Old 5th Dec 2007, 16:19
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I think no-one (even WWW) is saying don't chase your dream.... they are just flagging it might not be the best time in the cycle to borrow £70-80k to try and get there.... seems sensible given house prices are now falling etc.
RV800.. I wish I lived in your world... must be a wonderful place living looking in a rearview mirror.... 20:20 hindsight... it proved very useful on Sept 10th a few years back
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Old 5th Dec 2007, 16:42
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Oh dear god!

I’ve met, and flown with some Grim Reapers but some of you guys really take the biscuit!

Do not read this thread and let it deter you from your dream, it is very worth it when you get there!

I’ve worked in this industry for nearly 17 years, 13 years in a non-flying capacity, and spent most of it in its most volatile sector, the UK Charter market. I indeed now fly for a UK Charter airline. I’ve been made redundant twice and there isn’t one airline on my CV that’s branding remains in the UK. That, I suspect will include my present one by May 2008! And I know 100’s more like me….the point is we are all still here and all getting on with life, not about to throw our selves under a bus after reading some of the “sensationalist press” pasted above! (The word “if” is written quite a lot but I guess that’s what sell papers!) And in this industry, at the top end, with (some of) our salaries, nothing much should be a huge issue for both the present and future!

Now is still a reasonably good time to be an “experienced” pilot. I know of 3 who join easyJet in the New Year, all ex turboprop. I have a mate who’s joining Netjets in a few months from a LE45. CTC doesn’t seem too bad an option either; my company is taking a handful of cadets on for next summer, in view of a merger!

Something positive – WWW has said what’s below a few times in this thread, so lets focus on the positive stuff because I’ve been in this industry long enough to know that it just really ain’t that bad guys! Plus, I think it’s an awesome job….

Here’s a few tips for PPL holders who are wanting a professional flying career that, in essence, what this thread is trying to say in between the doom and gloom that is been spread.

Remain totally aware of your position in the market place with a fATPL and <200 hours. WWW has said it, now do you’re training slowly, I completed a fATPL, from exams to IR whilst remaining employed, it wasn’t easy but it was sensible due to post 09/11.

I would recommend modular right now, don’t even think of a big cost integrated school – the UK industry is going to remain dynamic for the next few years yet, my company’s major changes post merger will be winter 2008/9, i.e. a year from now and I would expect shrinkage on a fairly huge scale. These integrated schools can’t promise jobs that aren’t there! Train modular, at a steady pace. A “chunk” at a time with no pressure.

As an aside, have a read of a post in the Airlines/Airport forum called “What’s going to happen in 2008”. Lots of post’s from spotters and un-qualified “know it alls” but the general thoughts are the same, potentially, the choice of employers in the UK as a whole is dwindling as mergers and buy-outs happen or are rumoured to happen, some make considerable sense. Which is not an issue if your experienced, so don’t focus on a shiny jet as a first job, either save and pay CTC or have a ball flying a turbo-prop, which is the most fun you’ll have flying. The pay is dreadful, but you’ll look back throughout your career with fondness for it and be more respected for having done it.

I finished my written exams in August 2001, we all know what occurred in September of that year, I did my entire training through-out a dire period for aviation and got my first job 6 months after finishing my IR in 2004 – timing is everything. It was 2004/5 before anything drastically moved again on the employment front. I would personally say that it will be steady for the next few years for experienced folk with CTC filling the odd gaps, but 2010/11 could be the next “boom employment” period across the UK industry coinciding with a certain Boeing type arriving to 3 or 4 major UK airlines…
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Old 5th Dec 2007, 16:52
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What a marvelous example of my current advice.

Train slowly. Keep current employment. Pay off debt as you go along.

If a serious recession hits pilots recruitment you won't be totally screwed. If a slow down hits then you will be able to cope. If things continue to be good then you will start your job two years later than otherwise possible.

Its the most pragmatic path.

I've worked my nuts off for years encouraging and advising people to moved from Wannabeism to Professional Flying. I'm the nut who thinks anyone can do it and should do it if its in their soul. But life ain't a fanclub or a dream without realities. So be careful, change is in the wind.

WWW
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Old 5th Dec 2007, 17:09
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My goodness two balanced well thought out posts in a row on Prrune... never seen the like before! Well done WWW and JB007
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Old 6th Dec 2007, 17:19
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IATA have their opinion also........

http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/2007-29-11-01.htm
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Old 6th Dec 2007, 20:25
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"Washington - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) warned the world’s airlines of a severe pilot shortage unless industry and government work together to change training and qualification practices."

"ATA issued a new estimate that the industry may need 17,000 new pilots annually due to expected industry growth and retirements."

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and here my opinion on this opinion of the SEVERE pilot shortage :

USA needs 10'000 pilots a year. remain 7000 pilots for the rest of the world.
7000 pilots for Africa, Australia, Europe and Asie.

this industry trains much more pilots than 17000 pilots required ,so no pilot shortage for the next 5 years.
I would like to be wrong, believe me, but 17'000 pilots is not a lot!
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Old 7th Dec 2007, 22:13
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Its bleak !!

I recently cleared my class 1 medical and have been looking around to start my ppl. I have opted for the modular route and have been looking around the flying schools in UK (mainly London region). Having read the posts in this discussion from the pilots in the industry, it gives me a headache.

When the market was good, the ratio of job success of integrated students to modular was high. With the market forecasts, I wonder what will it be like for modular students.

I am 31 with a little family (supporting wife & a 6 month) and it took me time to make some money to afford the dream. Modular way I will probably end up qualified at 33 something (say touching 34) !!! If the market remains bleak and I spend 2 years knocking on the airline doors for the first interview ... I will probably end up at 36 years with no dream but a day job and financially screwed !!!

is it likely?? but i just love aviation !!! what to do ??? advice from sensible fellow members !!
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Old 7th Dec 2007, 23:32
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With the quarter percent drop in interest rates everything will be dandy in 2008!
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Old 8th Dec 2007, 05:21
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I very much hope its just a passing problem but Maxjet of Stansted had their shares suspended this week pending clarification of its financial situation. Its a little earlier than normal to see this sort of thing happening but by no means unusual to see an airline go bust by Christmas.

Some of you may be really suprised by just how quickly this business can change for the worse. In the past its been brutal and has gone from feast to famine in a matter of months or days (Sept 12th).

I hope it doesn't happen. I fear it might.

WWW
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Old 8th Dec 2007, 07:48
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Correct me if I am wrong, buit isn't Maxjet a relatively new company catering to a niche market?

If so, perhaps it is merely due to the fact that many new businesses fail in many categories, usually due to poor capitilization. This would hardly make its failure proof of WWW's gloomy predictions being accurate.

There are clear signs that recession is looming, but this doesn't mean all the bad news in the industry is caused by recession. Sometimes a failure can be due to bad management, even in good times.
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Old 8th Dec 2007, 08:21
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Quite so. But.

House prices are stalling. Consumer confidence is collapsing. Bad debt hammers at the doors of the banks. Things are "very, very tough" on the high street, according to Sir Philip Green, boss of Top Shop.

Meanwhile, Merrill Lynch this week said that interest rates would have to fall sharply on both sides of the Atlantic if central bankers are to help prevent a recession led by rising oil and food prices, the house boom collapse and rising unemployment. They predicted that the economy was on the brink of the first consumer-led recession since 1991.

There's no doubt about it - the panic buttons are glowing red and a nation is moving its jittery fingers towards them.

If it sounds grim, it also sounds familiar - at least to anyone over 35 who can remember the recession that kicked off at the fag end of the Thatcher revolution. After the booming 1980s it left a jagged detritus of collapsing house prices, home repossessions and rocketing unemployment.

Yet there is now a whole generation who haven't a clue what a bust feels like. They only know the comforting boom, boom, boom of the last 10 years, a golden age where credit has been cheap and practically limitless, a second home has seemed more like a right than a privilege and exotic holidays have become the norm.

It was much the same atmosphere in the 1980s. Everyone was either rich, getting rich or thinking about being rich. Harry Enfield's "Loadsamoney" was the symbol of the times. Brickies and tilers and cab drivers all seemed to have pockets stuffed with cash. Dreary little houses in dumps such as Fulham and Shepherds Bush (and larger dumps like Newcastle and Manchester) were fetching ridiculous prices. Plumbers and dope dealers alike drove Beemers, and City traders had fleets of them.

Courtesy of Tim Lot in the Telegraph.


WWW
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Old 8th Dec 2007, 08:25
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I watched the industry with despair in from 12 Sept 2001 until 2003. I had saved up the money for all of my training and already had my PPL. I decided to carry on in my well paid job, and did distance learning for the ATPLs in 2004 and took a few months off work to complete my CPL/IR in 2005. During 2004, the likes of CTC and OATS made it very easy for young chaps to enter training and virtually held a monopoly on people getting jobs. Everyone who went to CTC, barring a few who got kicked out, got jobs. OATS placed people into BA, as did the other integrated courses. By the time I had finished, I reckoned that the industry had changed significantly and my choice of route was not the best. However, things worked out for me, as my little school had contacts, and I got a job offer on 737s. I was lucky, extremely so. I still know good decent blokes who have nothing, but who were outstanding students.

The big schools adapted well to the changing times at the cost of modular guys. The recent boom has been good for integrated and CTC. Not so good if you have no contacts and went modular. It's very difficult to say what will happen. If you have a well paid job, then stay in it.

For those of you with a young family, think very hard. Even when you get your dream job, the pay is still not so good, and at the end of the day, it is still just a job. Goodness knows how you could survive with big debts to pay off and support your family.
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Old 8th Dec 2007, 09:08
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Not yet reached your 30th birthday ?

Guys and Gals, I trained in 2000/2001, during the summer of 2001 pilot recruitment in the UK was fairly upbeat and things were going wonderfully well. However there had been a few signs that things were not all that rosy. Fuel prices kept going up, lorry drivers(and myself) were complaining over the cost of fuel (about 70p a litre then, wow that was cheap), there had been the SARS epidemic and Bush Junior with Seniors help was heading for all out war with anyone who didn't like his Texan boots.......Sept 11 2001....BANG. This last factor was the final straw. All pilot recruitment dried up and headed in the oppposite way. The redundancies on the other side of the pond were worse than any horror movie. Just ask some of those guys. We haven't reached a tipping point quite yet. Employment in this country is fairly good (why have we seen the largest rise in immigration into the UK for several decades). Gordon Beige for all his ****e taxes has been fairly cautious in his borrowing and spending, but he did leave a can of worms for Darling Darling who is now spending as if its going out of fashion. Borrowing and interest rates are still pretty low compared to the previous two decades and those coming to the end of a fixed mortgage will be able to take advantage of the latest interest rate cut.

For those that feel lucky and about to spend 70 large on a CPL/IR find out how many are swimming after a job at the moment, I'd imagine it reaches at least 600 odd. Don't forget to add the cost of type rating, plus some time on type and loss of earnings cos you will earn **** all for 6-18 months.

The job market is pretty stagnent at the moment. There is not much movement in UK or Europe. The big aircraft orders over the last 2 years are on the whole replacements with a small bit of expansion. Factor in the 65 retirement age, Then there is not going to be much need for crew apart from natural attrition for a couple of years perhaps ??

Word of advice, polish off the previous career cv and start networking your old non-aviation job. Chances are you will be needing it more than the slim only got 200 hrs guv'nor pilot cv !!!!

Speedrestriction - There might have been a few taken out of CTCs pool, but these guys are only on temp 6 month contracts and if the relevant airline is over-crewed then they will be dropped - maybe look to the Far East and India.

Hasta la Vista

Jenson
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Old 8th Dec 2007, 09:34
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this is what I am doing, looking for non aviation jobs which may pay better and certainly will ,knowing I wont have to spend cash to buy hours with no employment guaranty.

Saving money and wait for the big crash and maybe buy myself a nice house or 2 and sleep and dream well.
Have fun paying your debts!!!!I don't have any...
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Old 8th Dec 2007, 09:46
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if flying is your true dream and you have the determination and ability to do it, then there is no reason why you would never gain employment as a pilot.
There are lots of reasons why you may never realise your true dream. The second part of your sentence makes sense though. That is, if you exclude working as a pilot for an airline.

Its not bleak at all the aviation industry is expanding rapidly and will continue to do so for years to come. The UK economy is not going to disintegrate overnight as some like to predict.
I work at a reputable, stable, established and successful British airline with which whom even your Granny will be familiar. There is a recruitment freeze on at the moment, delivery of added hulls to the fleet has ceased, we are overcrewed and there are even murmers of redunancies in the camp. Battoning down the hatches comes to mind.

Yes it will be tough and is a giant financial gamble but the rewards are high and are there to achieve, no amount of posts on a forum should deter you.
Wages are more ample than high. I think the days of the 'jet set' lifestyle are long gone for the majority of us. Its just as much as a struggle, with a family to support on airline pilot wages as it is for the rest of the white collar lot. There are plenty of posts to read which should be able to deter you.

At the end of the day the choices are yours.............If your unsure go and speak to actual people in the industry in person and I’m sure you will get nothing but positive responses.
From an actual person in the industry not in person. Take those rose tinted specs off mate, please try and observe what is going on on the real world for once.
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Old 8th Dec 2007, 10:00
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The CTC holdpool is a good indicator of employment prospects for low hour guys looking for that first airline job. In 2005 when I finished training with CTC from the cadet scheme and was handed over to ezy the wait for the ATP/cadet graduates from finishing MCC/JOC to type rating was 5 days. As we approach 2008 talking to one of the guys at my base who joined in the summer I understand the wait, from the ATP hold pool at any rate, as an average is now nearer1 year - and that is with any airline, never mind ezy. Something is driving this change and just a glance at the global economy provides food for thought. Admittedly this is just a snapshot, and is a focus on only one training provider. But if CTC are struggling to place their people then all is not rosy.

Some posters seem to disagree with the pessimistic tone of this thread but I think WWW's urge of caution is entirely valid. Chill winds are blowing in from the West and now is the time to have that back up plan in place.
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Old 8th Dec 2007, 10:14
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The whole CTC scheme does seem to be backing up a lot. Those waiting for placement are indeed looking at over 12 months. It seems like selection and training waiting times are also extending significantly.

You could see this as a valid indicator and I think it is a far better one than looking at aircraft orders/options which can be deferred and diverted at the blink of an eye. I can think of 3 household name airlines with a recruitment freeze on.

I don't want to totally deter anyone from starting down the Wannabe way but there is a case for a serious pause for thought.

WWW
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Old 8th Dec 2007, 12:40
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Hi all,

WWW your post (number 62 on this thread) sums it up well. People should take head from this.

WRT CTC, they have just shipped out another 15 cadets for one course so they are obviously hopeful this they'll be able to place them in 18 months time. Realistically they'll be looking to place them a few months ahead.

Interesting times.

L Met
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Old 8th Dec 2007, 16:34
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bad to worse ??

From the views on this thread, I get the idea that the situation will get bad to worse in a matter of time. I piled up every penny I could for this so I won't need a bank loan or fear debts. However, this means that I will be spending most of my savings on the training .. therefore, no house and nothing else !!

If employers were to judge your "love of aviation factor" for the job then I am sure none would be unemployed today. I gather that there are a lot of unemployed pilots out there and modular guys have further competition against the likes of OAT, CTC, FTE etc. Whether you agree or not, airlines are more inclined towards these FTOs.

I am no quitter but its a huge financial gamble with an absolute blind faith. I am, honestly, deterred by the revelations on employment and further views in this thread and my plane has already been grounded before it could take off...

I am in a day job (skilled IT) and planned to do modular so that I keep my job. My concern will be the age factor .. by the time I finish my training I will be 33 or touching 34 .. so if the market goes down next year and recovers in 2-3 years .. i will be a 36 years grandad with 200+hrs .. what chances will i have then????
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