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Pilot shortages, News Events, And What Are The Effects On Airline Jobs?

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Pilot shortages, News Events, And What Are The Effects On Airline Jobs?

Old 2nd Aug 2004, 22:53
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Pilot shortages, News Events, And What Are The Effects On Airline Jobs?

Hello Fellow PPruner's,

It has been stated last week on several occasions
that there will be a pilot shortage in europe within
the next 2 years.

I have several friends that are in the major's
telling me that they also have heard it.

Question is has anyone heard of future hiring's in
the near future.ie the big boys,British/thai/cathay/singapore
etc.

Will they all need pilots OR not or do we keep dreaming.
Really hard to believe what you hear in aviation.
I suppose its just one of those profession's.

What do you all think???????

safe flying ALL

mike
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Old 3rd Aug 2004, 05:44
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Don't believe it! How the hell do they know what the future holds? They haven't a clue, I don't care how close to the industry they are. Working as a pilot or whatever is not a qualification to judge the economy or the state of the industry IMHO. Even the 'expert' city analysis are wrong way more than right!

The industry is picking up now, but it wouldn't take long to list the conditions for a reversal and these things are simply too complex to fully comprehend.

I am not basing my plans on some notional future boom.
 
Old 3rd Aug 2004, 07:02
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I've learnt from the adult aviators that 2 years is a long time in aviation. As my olde r friends have always said to me, whoever knows what will happen to aviation in future would be sitting down at the beach enjoying the cash Who knows what will happen, although if there really is going to be a pilot shortage in the coming years, it's good news for me Still have a few more years until I get out of high school and start flight training However, I'm in Australia and we're talking about England in this thread Oh well...

Cheers,

Capt. J
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Old 3rd Aug 2004, 12:07
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Try these links for a start (despite what you can see, they are all different!):

http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthr...pilot+shortage

http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthr...pilot+shortage

http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthr...pilot+shortage

http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthr...pilot+shortage

There is not a shortage of newly-qualified pilots. There is the beginnings of a shortage of pilots with specific qualifications. By 'the beginnings' I mean that major companies (mainly Mid and Far Eastern) are, for the first time in several years, starting to advertise for pilots. The kind of pilots they want are B777/747 and A340/330 captains and SFOs with several thousand hours. At the moment, the companies advertising are not offering great terms (i.e. they're offering what they've paid their guys for the last four years or more), and they're unlikely to attract many folks from other major airlines until they offer better terms. That will happen, slowly, as they realise that they're not getting the response they need - and as the huge pool of FAA-licensed pilots furloughed from the US majors dries up, which it will eventually.

In the meantime, the European majors are also beginning to look for people once again. They're not looking for lots of people, but they are looking for some - again, rated and experienced. At the moment, the numbers being talked about aren't even enough to replace those retiring, but that will change. With a few exceptions, there aren't great plans afoot for expansion either in Europe or the US (unlike the Mid and Far East), so I don't expect there to be a great or sudden increase in the number of jobs for newly-qualified fATPLs in those regions anytime soon, but there will be a steady improvement.

What the longer term future holds is in the lap of the Gods. If the global economic recovery continues, without interruption from Al Qaeda and others, there will be a consequent improvement in the fortunes of the airlines which will have a proportional effect on the market for new pilots. But, even in this rosy scenario, you must remember that economies are cyclical, and the effects of downturns in economies are exaggerated in the airline business. The cycle is approximately 10 years or so long. It's been a year - maybe two - since the depths of the last trough, so we can expect maybe 6 years of growth before a two-year descent into the next recession or downturn. Your aim should be to get yourself a job in that six-year 'high'! And, remember, that's the rose-tinted view; as HWD suggests, it could all go pear-shaped again tomorrow!

Scroggs
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Old 3rd Aug 2004, 12:50
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Wise words all.

Its been a funny old month. On the one hand a couple of friends in MYT are facing the dole whilst on the other a couple have been hired straight into decent jet jobs in the UK. Its definitely a mixed up market right now - but given the despairing permafrost endured over the last near 3 years it is at least encouraging.

I think I remember saying it would take something like 3 years after Sept 11th for the job market to pick up. Here we are and arguably it is. UK annual growth of 4% and with growth on the Continent finally picking up things are going to get better - sometime.

But its a long way from good and don't believe anyone who talks of a shortage for at least another 3 years. Even then the 'shortage' just means a few lucky people get offered airline interviews without having to try very hard. Thats a long way from getting checked out on the line though.

My view is that its currently a good time to be getting a PPL 100hrs and start distance learning the ATPLs. Jacking in the job and blowing 20k on a CPL Multi IR can wait a while longer.

Get the timing right and it all looks so easy. Get it wrong and it can ruin your life. Seriously.

Cheers

WWW
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Old 4th Aug 2004, 13:42
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This mythical pilot shortage gets an airing from time to time - usually when the schools are having difficulty filling their quotas. The worst offender is the marketing department of a certain FTO west of London that has seems to have a particularly tenuous grip on reality (and truth).

Don't rely on any sudden explosive demand for 200-hour unrated pilots - it ain't going to happen. A few newbies will get jobs, as they always have, but there are a lot of highly experienced, type-rated pilots on the market who are far more attractive to the airlines.
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Old 5th Aug 2004, 15:44
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I took me first lesson in the year 2000.
And since that time I have come across all kinds of people
from ops people to schools to captains to students.
there will never be a wave such as predicted in my opinion.
Because airline managment are quite skilled at what the do.
As captains gain years of experience they become ridiculously expensive to employ like any industry the get early retirement waved in front of them.some snap it up then move on get another job.then theres upgrades and new f/os get their foot in the door.There is never going to be a mass exodus just a constant trickle. So you better not hand over huge amounts of money to flying schools on that reason alone.
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Old 1st Sep 2005, 08:14
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Hi all

What's the assesment now on the job market. Heard a lot of good things lately. Is it picking up? or still the same as one year ago?

K.
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Old 29th Sep 2005, 09:14
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flapsnslats

I see you've not been flying very long but you really have offer a little more in the way of encouragement to those out there embarking on this profession.

As a captain in the UK, it is obvious to see things are going in the right direction. The amount of airlines in the UK recruiting is increasing all the time, the economy is pointing the right way at long last and I feel the only problem is the threat of terrorism - and you'd need a crystal ball for that one. The only negative point is that pay scales are forever changing as accountants run the show and force new joiners to start on lesser salaries. ( a job for the union) Captains don't get early retirement waved at them as most are having to work until 60 as their pensions are down the pan thanks to this government.

Sure, none of us know what's around the corner but do let up and coming pilots be optimistic. At present I feel they have a right to be, as all the indicators are currently fair to good.
 
Old 29th Sep 2005, 14:39
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My updated analysis is that pilot salaries will fall in real terms before bottoming. Then again, salaries in other highly paid sectors such as IT are also falling in real terms.

I believe, over the longer term, the reason aviation will be in a boom and yet salaries will still drop (in real terms or course) is that the industry is moving to a greater quantity of smaller flights. Therefore, the increase in the number of pilots and planes is disproportionatly larger when compared to the increase in the number of passengers. I can't say this will be the case when examining an instantaneous snapshot, like the current situation, but overall I get the impression this is the business model of the future.
 
Old 30th Sep 2005, 16:15
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Where is the pilot shortage?

I hear rumours of a pilot shortage somewhere on this planet, but where?

I will move anywhere, but one snag, I only speak English!
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Old 30th Sep 2005, 17:24
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China and Russia
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Old 1st Oct 2005, 06:37
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Shortage = well lets see, BA,VIRGIN,TC.FC,Monarch,FLYBE,Thomson to name but a few all recruiting now - the shortage is of suitably qualified pilots and the definition of that concept is what this forum is partly about !
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Old 1st Oct 2005, 14:30
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I should point out to all that this thread first aired in 2004 and was ressurrected the other day. You might want to bear that in mind before putting finger to keyboard!

Scroggs
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Old 25th Jul 2006, 00:14
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Latest News Items - will flying jobs be affected?

Just booked a flight ticket and I noticed that the price of the ticket has gone up about 30 euros. I asked the reason for this and they told me that the fuel prices has gone up.

I am really affraid that people are going to travel less and that we are going in to a very deep aviation regression thus more difficult for us to find work.

Are there any reports that the employment of pilots is going to get much tuffer?
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Old 25th Jul 2006, 08:35
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This is purely a knee-jerk reaction / profiteering.
Tosh - China is in overdrive producing cheap everything for stores globally. Growing 11.7% in the last quarter on an annualised basis, oil prices have risen due to such large anticipated increases in demand outstripping supply.

Profiteers have nothing to do with it - no one trading company can have any effect on the market price as a whole as it is so vast. Although a trader could corner the market in one grade of crude, it is quite obvious when that happens and fines would be imposed (see BP and their current N American trading operations).

Traders ensure liquidity in the marketplace - what is very hard to do is any "profiteering" in a global market.

Middle East - the oil producers can't afford to get involved - even Iran.
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Old 25th Jul 2006, 09:05
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So long as the conflict doesn't spread - and there's no suggestion that it will - there is no need to worry about any fall-out for aviation.

Other than Japan, of course. The Japanese will stop travelling. They always do, whenever they think we're about to start another WW. They've done so several times in only the last 15 years.

Scroggs
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Old 25th Jul 2006, 11:06
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I really hope that you are right scroggs.
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Old 25th Jul 2006, 13:54
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Don't get me wrong: there are plenty of pressures building up against aviation, and the Western economies in general. We are getting to the point where we (those economies) are overdue for a downturn - and there's always a downturn, about once every 10 years or so. Yes, I know about 9/11 and SARS (I was close to redundancy myself then), but the effects were transient, and were almost entirely confined to tourism and aviation - the Western economies were, and remained, strong throughout. A more fundamental economic downturn is what I'm talking about - and it won't be caused by Israel!

Scroggs
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Old 25th Jul 2006, 22:47
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Scroggs

From your experience, would you say this is due in the next 1-2 years?
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