ATPL Holders Vs Available Jobs

[SteveAv]

Hi there.

I am still pondering whether to commit my life savings and dive in and train to get my fATPL etc...

Obviously, competition for airline jobs at the end of training (i.e low hour pilots etc..) is fierce and I am wondering what the likelyhood of being able to get a job at the end of it all is like.

What I'd quite like to know, if anyone has any data, is the following;

1) what is the current number of ATPL & fATPL holders in the UK

2) I'd also quite like to know any sensible estimations as to the current number of employed commercial pilots there are in the UK.

3) ..and, an estimate of the total number of people in the UK currently training with the ambition to become an airline pilot.

I recently read a post by one of the moderators saying that there are 10,000 CPL holders in Australia that are not employed (at least as pilots), and I can't help feeling that this is the situation the UK is heading for, with a saturated market resulting in ever decreasing conditions of employment (which from reading pprune seems evident).

The CAA has a publication that shows the number of licence holders in early 2004 but does not give any info as to the employment of them.

Also, if anyone has any sensible assumptions as to the future requirements for pilots, (I know no-one has a crystal ball but if you could consider the current trend in supposed airline expansion but then the offsetting factor of likely continuing rises in fuel costs, etc.). I'd be really interested in hearing them.

I know that there are those amongst you that will say "don't do it, it's not like it used to be" and, there are those that will say "go for it! If you try hard enough you will eventually get a job". But I would really appreciate some unbiased opinions before I 'give up my day job'!

Thanks in advance for any helpful comments you can post.

Steve

[EGCC4284]

I am still pondering whether to commit my life savings and dive in and train to get my fATPL etc...

Really sorry to say this but if you are asking yourself this question, then I wouldn't bother spending any of your money as you obviously don't want to become a pilot enough to take the chance.

If you do decide to go ahead and manage to get to the end of the long long journey of obtaining your licence, you will not be handed a job on a plate.

If you told me in an interview that you wasn't sure about taking the risk many years before, then I would say "Don't call us, we'll call you" and bye bye.

I am going to be a pilot unless my health let's me down. No ifs or buts, its as simple as that. You make your own chances in this world and should stop wanting for everybody else to give you the push towards what you want to do in life.

Your quote makes you the sort of person that employers do not want to employ.

Sorry if you think I'm being a bit hard on you.

[SteveAv]

Don't think you are being too hard at all. Cheers for the honesty.

I'd still like to know some of the data that I requested if anyone has any ideas..??

Thanks.

[ChocksAwayUK]

Hmm.. well i don't have the statistics that you need but i'd just like to express some disagreement with the main thrust of EGCC4284's post.

Being a pilot is all about making sensible decisions given the information that you have available to you and that's what you're doing very well now. I think an airline would overlook someone who jumped into something without any consideration of the consequences. They don't necessarily hire on "how much you want to be a pilot", though determination is a preferred characteristic.

[Dynamic Apathy]

I'll go one step further than Chocks and say that you EG bloody CC are bang out of order.

I presume that you have passed through the mill and are in a job, looking down, or you have a rich Daddy who could cushion the financial blow.

Well not everyone has the wealth to easily achieve their life ambition, and obviously Steve has to be careful hence the request for information before commiting his hard earned money. Just because one loves flying and yearns for a flying job doesn't mean you can throw caution to the wind

One the original point of the thread, Steve.........Don't take crap from people to whom money does not appear to be an object. Your money is important and your question is a valid one, but unfortunately I cannot provide any specific help, but hopefully somebody in the know will respond with some useful information.

My sole purpose for adding to this thread was to put EGCC in his or her place and to keep this thread alive and at the top of the heap. You deserve better than the responses like that.

Good luck to the future and I hope you end up making the right decision which suits your circumstances

[Piltdown Man]

Guessimates!

I'll give a guess: 13,000 Commercial Pilots, 1,500 not employed. Of the latter, there are many who are not looking for work and also many, who have looked but have had no success. There are also quite a few that you would not want to employ in any capacity! Let's guess at say 500 actively looking. However, the people in the know should be the Campaign in Gatwick Towers. And maybe they are the people to ask. After all, we do pay their wages!

But don't compare us with Oz. There are many pilots with CPL's (and I'm one) because they are relatively cheap to get. But there are only a few jobs because of the position of Oz and it's relatively small population.

[PPRuNe Towers]

Funny old world,

Every single flight I and your mods make is recorded, analysed and promptly published by the CAA and any of you can go and see the times, delays Etc.

Not a single useful iota of information for wannabees despite every trainee's progress minutely recorded on computer in-house at the Belgrano. Every medical, exam and test is there - including every wrong answer you've made. Even so this is a minute fraction of the data recorded on the flights by each working pilot on the UK commercial register every single week.

Makes you think doesn't it? Who could want you not to have the answers or be able to make an informed decision?

They must love the egcc's of this world.

Regards
Rob

[ChocksAwayUK]

Isn't this all available now as part of the Freedom of Info doodah? Maybe i should show some initiative and get on the blower to the CAA.. or perhaps just have another glass of wine.

[silverknapper]

I guess the point EGCC tried to make is this. If you were to sensibly sit down and work the figures, becoming a pilot may not add up. There are no certainties, and for every guy in a good jet job there must be 20 who didn't make it that far. And lets be honest if it's financial viability you're looking at then a jet job is where you want to be. Any other job's salary can be easily matched or beaten by a career outwith aviation.
But on the other hand if it's for the enjoyment then what the hell, just follow your heart. I did, and currently owe HSBC £35k!

All the best!

[Tallbloke]

Whilst I might not agree with the tone of egcc's post, I do agree with the sentiment. We sat down and looked at the numbers, loss of earnings in excess of £40k, £30k ish to train and no job at the end of it, it makes no sense to give up the day job to train for a year. There are plenty of ways you can spend £30,000 to retrain yourself to do something else, if changing jobs is all you are looking for.
There has to be something else that drives you to make the change. For me it is a love of all things mechanical, the responsibility of carrying passengers and flying the aircraft, and a grandfather who used to tell my brother and I endless stories of his time in 617 squadron. None of these I consider to be logical reasons to change, but it is something I want to do more than anything else, and now that I have the opportunity, we are taking the plunge and doing it.

Who could want you not to have the answers or be able to make an informed decision?

Conspiracy Rob? Who could ever want to pull the wool over our eyes

[DC10FAN]

EGCC4284,

As a neutral(but someone who had considered a flying career); I really don't understand your response. Clearly SteveAv wants to be a pilot by the fact that he's prepared to spend his life savings on it. Have you never made an investment in anything? Most people like to judge the likely return on their investment; seems fairly sensible to me. I'm sure he doesn't expect to be handed the job on a plate but his post seems wholly reasonable to me. If the no. of trained pilots far exceeds the jobs available then simple maths dictates that he's less likely to get a job. Regards giving someone a push; I think he is simply asking other peoples' opinions? Again isn't that normal human behaviour?

SteveAv,

Good luck.

[Vee One...Rotate]

I think SteveAv's original post shows a refreshingly realistic outlook by someone about to take the plunge.

I understand the sentiment of the "You really need to want it more than anything." crowd but maybe, particularly on PPRuNe, people are too quick to label anyone who questions the system or shows the kind of (wholly sensible) slight apprehension at the prospect ahead as not up to or deserving of the task/job.

How many fresh recruits at UK flight schools know less than SteveAv about the realities of the aviation industry? I'd bet it's quite a fair number what with the glossy marketing etc. of many establishments.

I'm currently at the PPL stage and plan to go on to the professional licence myself - I sometimes worry about the financial hurdles and the posible lifestyple I'm letting myself in for but the difference is this: I consider myself fairly well in touch with the realities of this flying lark and and still want to do it. What's worse - wanting it to do it whilst ignorant/dismissive of the reality or wanting to do it being fully aware (as far as possible) of the reality?

It's sad to say that it appears that many a FTO/airline will take adantage of the first type of person...a recurring theme on these pages is people paying for type ratings, interviews, aptitude tests, etc. All the while Ts and Cs seem to drop - a bit of integrity and an unwillingness to jump through EVERY hoop put in front of them, I think, is a good trait in general and especially as a pilot hopeful.

SteveAv will come to his own decision - he's just looking for input - which, to be fair, is what every poster has given him. Personal opinions based on personal experiences. This is why PPRuNe is such a great resource

Good luck whatever you do

Regards,

V1R

[Shanwick Shanwick]

If you decide to spend the cash on training you'll look back in 20 years from one of four scenarios:

a) Your left seat of a Ryanair 737, earning £45,000 and flying 1200 hours a year due to European Harmonisation. This is your 14th sector today!

b) Your left seat of an EasyJet A319, earning £45,000 and flying 1200 hours a year but with 3 days off a week. This your second JFK today!

c) Your right seat of a One (BA) World AirBo 349, earning £48,000 and flying 1200 hours a year but with 96 year old CSD's and 75year old Captains. It's also 3am in the morning and you're only half way between Aukland and Basingstoke Intl. (They gave up on LHR years ago)

or

d) Your seat in the garden, cold beer in hand, looking up at those who persevered with the proffesion. You're glad you tried it but you're also glad you got out 10 years ago while the going was good.

If you don't, you'll regret it and if you do, you'll wish you hadnt!

[reality check]

SteveAv

To decide to invest all your money or not in anything you must make an informed and commercial assessment of the risks, which I commend you for doing. No investment should be made from the heart.

To get an ATPL from a good school is going to cost you about £100K by the time you factor in everything. (Please don’t change the thread everyone by costing a budget route).

So in many ways it is like investing in a new business. Many people invest huge amounts of money in a venture but only the most determined succeed. If you can take a £100K hit and survive after then do it, if not then don’t.

There is no way of knowing what the job market will be like when you qualify so this will remain the one factor you cannot answer ‘till you get there. The 6-12 months after you come out of training is critical. You will mainly be in competition with the people you qualify with.

It is difficult to determine how many licence holders are ready to go. I spoke with a very experienced training Capt who has been instrumental in pilot recruitment and training and is a big name in the low cost carriers. His view was that at any time there are about 800 low hour pilots in the UK fully current. During a peek period they could all get jobs and in a trough none will. The ‘800 pool’ is cyclic as people fail to remain current and are replaced by new people.

I\'ve just read a thread from mikepops, namely \'Funny/rude response from airline\'.

Take note of the complete hash he is making of getting a job. People like him will be your competion which should be a comforting thought!

[CarltonBrowne the FO]

It is worth noting, there is an extra element of risk with self-sponsored training.
Under the old "self improver" route of instructing, etc, it did not really harm your chances if it took several years to get that first airline job- you kept current by instructing or whatever, and in fact kept improving your skills and airmanship. (Up to a point- after perhaps 1500-2000 hours in light aircraft, you would gradually become a less viable training prospect. However, after that many hours, the skills would be sufficiently ingrained you could reasonably fly less often without a problem).
Unfortunately, while the JAR CPL/fATPL course does produce graduates with a perfectly adequate skill level, these graduates have a short "shelf life." From the day you finish the course, your skills start to degrade as you become less current. I am not privy to the maximum time my employer considers it viable to hire a graduate after his course completion date, but I do know there a limit.
Unless you have sufficiently robust finances to allow either an Instructor Rating course after the CPL, or regular PPL flying in an advanced aircraft, you need to be aware that the expensive asset you purchase, is a rapidly depreciating asset. This is among the reasons why it is rumoured that HSBC among others is soon to stop lending money for pilot training (at the levels required for a JAR CPL/IR course anyway).

[SteveAv]

I'd just like to say a quick thanks to those of you who have given some very good honest opinions. It was very gratifying to see that there are so many members on this site able to be objective and supportive.

I do desperately want to be an airline pilot but, as with most things in life, you have to weigh up the 'risk Vs reward' associated with taking such a big (financial) step. At the end of the day it all boils down to getting a job and earning money, (well it does if you have to support yourself), regardless of how much you enjoy what you're doing.

Chocksaway... I especially agree with your statement that being a pilot requires the ability to make informed decisions using all available information, as opposed to diving in feet first! I just hope airline employers are able differentiate between blind passion and the ability to be a good pilot.

It is obviously a personal decision I need to make. I just hope I make the 'right' one!!!

Out of interest, what is the Campaign at Gatwick Towers?

Cheers again guys and gals. If anyone does have any further data it would be good to check it out.

Steve.

[fernytickles]

SteveAv

I think they mean the CAA, sometimes known as the Campaign against Aviation.

For my part, I decided to go ahead with learning to fly because I didn't want to reach my deathbed (wherever and whenever that may be) regretting that I'd never at least tried. So far, no regrets whatsoever. But don't forget, airline flying is not the only option once you've got all those licences. There are so many facets in aviation and all of them need pilots - even just reading all the different forum names on here gives you half an inkling into how many different places you can find work.

Good luck whatever decision you make.

[father murry]

EGCC4284 what a totally pompus burke you are! The geezer is just asking a pretty sensible question in my opinion.

May Pope John Paul II rest in peace.

[cavortingcheetah]

Shanwick Shanwick, Wherefore art thou?
That was cute, apposite and bang to rights with the possibility of an exception or two.
He could be earning the equivalent of £120k pa, sitting by the pool with the hosties in Oahu, splendiferous in his four bared (barred ?) scants with a rum collins to hand. He might be secure in the knowledge that his little property sideline in Micheldever was going well and that his wife hadn't a clue about Doris, or Prudence or Jane.
It could, of course, all blow up anyway one day when he failed a medical and then remembered that hubris and the pride in his immortal body had prevented the coverage of adequate insurance to cover that eventuality.
Sic transit gloria mundi.
Farewell also to a very great man. John 11.


While I think of it. I have been many types of pilot.
Do not fall into the little trap of only wanting to be an airline pilot.
That\'s a bit like me syaing \'I want to drive a Roller for Rent a Wreck.\'
You can have an aweful lot of fun flying far more sophisticated equipment into much more interesting places than any of the good old boys who fly for good old BA or Virgin.
Airlines is neither the Alpha, nor by any means the Omega. It\'s just a bit of good old socialist nomenclatura. What Ho. Pass the EFIS.

[rapg1000]

I applied to a major airline who recently advertised for F/O's with 500 hrs. Upon emailing the recruitment manager a week or so later, I got the reply 'I have received more than 1500 applications'.......

I guess theres quite a lot of us out there....