Base Training, Command Courses, POS18 and job cuts
 

Why are base training and upgrades (including commands) occurring while we are also facing POS18 and redundancies?

Why indeed.
As the redundancy, “keeping the band together” talk-threat is the push towards COS18.
However the optics of training and upgrades is very contradictory.

Everything in the press is either virtue signalling as part of the negotiating strategy or the usual catch up third hand dross from the likes of the SCMP.

SCMP. Click bait, We are attractive and help sell newspapers, and last I check SCMP isn’t being loaded on the 200 plus Passenger aircraft departures a day.

it's because to the company, a 15year Capt cost a lot more than a 1 year Capt..... same for FO at the top of the scale cost way more than a JFO.... if you want conspiracy theory? they are training the replacement of the guys who might be tempted to take the very exciting voluntary byebye deal

Fair enough hyg, but if they want rid of, say 500 pilots in line with other major airlines, I would suggest, at best 100 or even 200 will be tempted with what you call “very exciting voluntary deal”, if CX is capable of “exciting”. That still leaves 300 to 400 redundancies from the bottom.
Base closure would probably see more leave on the “exciting” deal as compared to having to relocate to HKG. But even then, they would still need to clear some from the bottom.

Cathay express scheme
 

I have it on good authority that the plan for Cx express involves getting rid of a scale / b scale / travel fund goodies at dragon by offering any ex dragon pilot to join Cx on cos18.

There will be no redundancies from the bottom.

Why get rid off the cheapest crew?

Even if they change contract and all pilots sign for the new CoS then they will still need to trim from the bottom up. That is the only acceptable and contractual way, whether cheap or not.

Aquis. You seem quite certain of that. I think all levels will be hit. Bases, senior people in hk (probably a meager buy out offer) and probably some junior ranks (otherwise the legal aspects will prove difficult for CX). Regardless, worrying times and no one really has any accurate idea (and that certainly includes me !). Good luck to everyone...we'll need it.

ah, because they are not really pilots yet?

Sabrina, I agree.

The losers on here have spent the best part of a decade going on about the wonder of first world labour laws everywhere else. Virtually no first world airline, BA, QF etc are following contract and culling in seniority, yet you’re all expecting CX to?

bwahahaha. Funniest thing I’ve read all day.

That's not correct. US carriers are following their contracts.

It is true they've avoided layoffs (which will probably happen anyway) through the use of voluntary compensated leave schemes (to include early retirements with significant compensation). But when push comes to shove they will have to follow the contract and layoff by seniority. As will elements of CX stationed in the US. And this IS enforceable.

Well that’s why redundancies suck don’t they? What do you do? Fire the future of the company essentially, precisely the people that are driving unit production costs down in order to save your senior crew? Fire young, vulnerable and also significantly local crew and by doing that actually driving unit costs up? It would be madness.

On the other hand, do you fire the senior crew on these elaborate contracts after they have invested their entire careers working for you and that have come in a time when not many wanted to be here? Not to mention the not so insignificant factor of experience that needs passing on. Also madness.

Wouldn’t it be an idea to make people redundant in a way that would still maintain their name on the list and their slot on their seat, should they wish to return when business picks up? (This may already be the case) Regardless of what happens with contracts. There is no fairness in an unfair time, but this could be a way forward? What about agreed unpaid leave as opposed to redundancy? Eventually pilots will be needed again, to throw the baby out with the bathwater doesn’t seem productive to me even though we can all see that something needs to be done to ensure survival on the long term.

There is no 'fair' way to do things and the concept of 'fairness' is wholly in the eyes of the beholder.

Seniority is a mainstay of most airline contracts simply because there isn't a clear cut better way to do things. Kind of a moot point in that CX's contract is clear on the matter and forced redundancies MUST be in reverse seniority order (and as such actionable in countries where there's real law). Seniority is a barrier towards jumping towards what would be ultimately a better career for the person (having to start all over) but is also a retention tool as much for the employer in that it keeps the person there after the company has made an investment in them. As such, seniority has a very high equivalent dollar value on any type of contract where it's enforceable.

SO

If there IS some form of 'better way' the only way to do it would be to recognize the dollar value OF the investment the person made in his seniority and justly compensate him (or her) for allowing the contract to be modified. Which is exactly the plan many US carriers have implemented so far (to be completely accurate it's more of a means of both company and union using procedures in an existing CBA to allow an individual to voluntarily bow out with an exit package or take partially paid leave with benefits). This also side-steps the 'stick' factor of attempting to abrogate these contracts which for the company would be extremely costly. So a meaningful deal must be negotiated; not a one-sided 'plan.'

There are all kinds of options (payment to retire early, partially paid but guaranteed leave with benefits, etc. -- these were the ones embraced by US carriers). Another plan could be partially paid leave with some form of future share in the company when things pick back up. The possibilities are endless but the thing to keep in mind is the carrier can't simply tear up the contract without it ultimately costing itself MORE than a reasonable deal.

where to begin.....writing in Caps on pprune to make your point. I’m sure the company will be running scared. Not talking layoffs, talking shutting the base. Big difference.

Not that big.

Shutting a base to evade fulfilling a contract which requires seniority based layoffs would not turn out well in some places for the company. Nor would it be particularly cheap with recall rights and the contractual benefits this entails (which are staked under the base contract not some arbitrary HKG one). Not only a can o' worms but an expensive can o' worms.

The company has ascertained that the way around the legal necessity to lay off workers in seniority order is to actually make them voluntarily leave. They do that by closing the bases and then offering those pilots a return to HK on the "new HK" terms, which will also be much reduced. The gamble is that most will refuse to relocate to HK on what effectively would be a COS 18 (+/-) contract. Many senior pilots would not agree to such reduced terms, never mind actually relocating to HK as well. Unfortunately, the perfect storm is upon us. Seems we will find out the actual details in the next week or so. The package is already settled, only waiting to be released. Of course, the management could come to their senses and back away from triggering Armageddon, as the unintended consequences for the company will make the 49er debacle seem a minor inconvenience.

I’m not sure why that would be? If they want to shut their overseas bases, they are free to shut them. The staff then gets an offer to come back to HKG, no?

Not if the intent was to evade the contractural terms by so doing (i.e. closing a base to evade furloughing in order of seniority mandated by an existing contract would almost certainly generate a claim and a quagmire--kind of like skipping town to avoid paying a bill). Yes; right of return on an expensive contract.

If CoS20 comes in with vastly different pay here in HKG the bases will have lost whatever benefit they may have to the company. I think all bases will be soon be gone.

May well be. Guess we'll see.

Just playing devils advocate here but, why wouldn’t they get them back on an expensive contract if the intent is to make people redundant?

After they are back in HKG you offer the new and improved COS to everybody and from there you proceed with redundancies.

Getting back to HKG permanently on expat terms sounds exceedingly implausible to me. We will all see in the end, just seems to me this is about to get very ugly and very “unfair”, so to speak.

Would have to agree this will be the end of B scale for all Sabrina, not just KA.....

OR, ram through the 'new and improved' COS in HKG, THEN close the bases. Given that COS08 would no longer exist, based pilots would have the choice of returning to HKG on the new COS or taking redundancy under their existing COS.

So just curious Sabrina, how many A scale left at KA?

JY

Too many people projecting wishful thinking and Western legal values that amount to nothing in HK. In addition, I find it laughable that there are somehow assumptions that HK courts still amount to anything, as if the developments in the recent political realm stand completely separate from the economy. They do not. The company viewed the 49ers Incident as a resounding success. The strategic objective was never those unfortunate 49 professionals. The objective was to cow the AOA membership into submission. The company succeeded beyond their wildest dreams. CC could never be effective because too many loose cannons using it for their own ends, undermining the objective. Should have gone for a walkout, it never happened. Ghosts of the 49ers.

There is a template for what comes next. It was deployed during SARS. It is brutally simple. The company will offer voluntary resignation/retirement/redundancy options. These will be the sweetheart deals. The company will consider this its benevolent gesture. After that, they will cut what they need. Since we can already project a dramatic decrease in demand, perhaps somewhere in line with 25-40% immediate reduction in flights at least for the next 12-24 months, that's the number of redundancies they will pursue. The company is well aware of the global picture and understands they can further eviscerate the ranks by rehiring pilots on direct entry options if there is a rebound. The company will focus on cutting from the top. In the accounting department, a pilot's a pilot's a pilot. Your umpteen years experience counts for nothing. Your safety record, your stellar employment history, awards... no one cares.

The company tipped its hand when they announced a recall of several cadet classes in February, and then reversed the decision a few days later. It's crystal clear what is going to happen next. Do yourselves a favor, stop projecting your wishes, apply what you learned along your long and hard-earned career to your own life circumstance and pretend your aircraft has just lost both engines and all power. Act accordingly. Stop wishful thinking. It's weak.

Yup.....guess we'll see.

To be candid were I a manager (since they're such a small fraction of the operation) I'd probably avoid the potential quagmires altogether and leave the bases alone until things get shook out in HKG well downline; this would also give me some flexibility depending on how things relit in the airline world. And would give me downline some plausibility to avoid opening up a can of worms in the jurisdictions regarding contracts and motivations for closures. But I'm not and don't pretend to be so's haven't got a clue what'll happen one way or another.

I WOULD have some type of exit strategy or plan for whatever might transpire though.

Shutterbug has it right I think. This will be 'survival of the cheapest'.

I don’t think that politically they could shed people here and have others flying in from a base and operating out of HK when HKers have lost their job.

Right.
And if nobody signs Pos18 or whatever they throw at us, they're going to crew the flights with the 500 guys who are already on it, 90% of whom are Second Officers.
Get a grip!

When I think that only 3 months ago, you were all complaining about the guys who "accepted ****ty deals" or "eroded the contract" by joining on POS18.
If you guys now accept any ****ty deal thrown at you because you're scared in the short term. THINK about the long term effects. You're going to have a ****ty contract for the remaining 5/10/15/20 years of your career!
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They won’t care how many don’t take it. We’re not exactly flying a full schedule now. They can slowly build back up from a low base.

Given the current lack of employment options in the industry around the world I'm not sure closing the bases would see too many leave unless they take early retirement or pursue other career option.

If they did decide to cut from the bottom, would it be only expats? How would the immigration department view locals being chopped and expats keeping their job? Or does the seniority factor override this?

Dream On
 

I assume that you assume, that all of those “many capable senior FO’s” that you speak of, will all pass their command courses? 😳 You’ve either not been here very long or you forget for whom you work! Pot calling the kettle black, is my assumption 🤔

Short Term
 

Anyone, previously or now, who signs COS18, more than likely tried to justify their actions with - I can do this and then move on to a better company, better lifestyle, better rosters etc. and life will be good.. That thread of justifying your actions is now officially dead, forever !!

Short term thinking will inevitably backfire.. You want proof, simply look at how CX is managed, who they choose as managers and the resultant 27 years of chaos.

Flex. You just stated the main point that everyone tends to forget at their peril. The fact that this has been going on now for 27 years. Anyone who loses sight of that will inevitably make the wrong decisions. Unfortunately, I now fear that circumstances have provided the company with exactly the trigger they've long been hoping for to justify their all out final assault on the conditions and pay at CX.

COS18 for all would be the great equalizer. 4 pay increments for Captains and 2 for FO. No ARAPA. All crew will be equally cheap. Bumping and conversion has to happen anyways with a fleet reduction of probably 30-40%. Wishful thinking that CX will cherry pick redundancies out of seniority might not happen. My guess, when the dust has settled the most junior CX pilot has a seniority number somewhere between 2200-2500.

A clear indication that redundancies will happen is that CX did not take the HKG government financial aid package which would have required CX to keep everyone employed until October.

And yes, closure of all bases could be a possibility.

Costs a lot to make non-POS18 redundant - have to pay out leave and then 6 months pay. In 6 months there will be enough flying to need most (not all) of the current pilots.

POS18 pilots cheap to make redundant with immediate cost savings. Most POS18 aircrew are SOs and JFOs. Not as useable as Relief FOs and Capts. If aircrew are make redundant it will be last on, first off.

CPA, Dragon, CX Express and Air HKG. 4 sets of staff and IT etc to run 4 operators. One set of staff and IT could do it all.

ARAPA would take months to unwind even if by force, so in the long term on the block but no quick cash flow fix. Announce a change of policy. ARAPA cuts in a years time (as per the policy) hoping to trigger resignations from non-POS18 pilots.

Company already paying for SIMs, acft and BTCs, so might as well continue with training as the extra cost is stuff all.

My punt: 20 - 30% pay cut for HKG aircrew for 4 - 5 months. Amalgamation of over lapping back office roles, so more Hello Kitty redundancies. Voluntary redundancy package.

Expat housing is an enormous cost for the company. There are career FO's accross the airlines who are making more in housing alone per year than captains make in total in other airlines. No doubt management would love to cut it severely, that's the unfortunate reality.

Funny to see junior pilots who are scared of losing their job transpose their wishful thinking into "facts" or "realities".

​​​The fact is nobody knows what is going to happen.
The fact is the benefits of trimming ARAPA would only bear fruit 12 months later.
The fact is that redundancies would benefit the cash position in the long term, not in the short term.
And who knows how long it will take for the demand to recover. Years? Perhaps. But the capacity could fall faster than the demand if other airlines keep on cutting their routes.
Remember SARS? Nobody predicted such a quick recovery.

The bases took a temporary 20% pay cut. If I had to speculate, I would guess that's what's coming.
I would happily take the hit to save YOUR job.
​​​​​​Keep on pissing us old farts off and maybe LIFO wouldn't look like such a bad idea.
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