Time to upgrade to FO and CN at Cathay
 

I have started this thread simply to give what is likely to be a more accurate guide to upgrading to First Officer and then Captain at CX.

The first thing to watch out for – being told what the “current” time to upgrade/command is. That only applies to those that joined 4 or 11 years ago. Currently those being upgraded to First Officer joined 3- 4 years ago. Those on Command course joined around 11 years ago.

We have recruited just under 2,000 pilots in the last 11 years and we have only exceeded 100 command courses/year on one occasion so far. We have recruited 700 in the last three years.


We have over 500 Second Officers now and by years end we expect to have almost 800 with only 10 SOs to be upgraded to FO this year. (Due to new Rostering policies they now need a lot more SOs and a lot fewer FOs)

I’ve used actual figures from 2011-2017 inclusive and used CX projections for 2018.


Based on that, a new joiner with DOJ 31/12/18 would upgrade to FO 6.6 years and to Captain in around 30.3 years. Now that is using an average rate for a, presumably, growing airline. I say presumably as we have actually remained the same size for the last three years.

If I ‘assume’ we will grow again at the same rate we did for the previous two decades then time to FO reduces to just over five years and time to command reduces to 17 years. My assumption of growth rate is OPTIMISTIC given the management plan for 2018-20 and the current industrial impasse in regards to the training ban. In other words – it will probably be longer than 5/17 years.



So you may be told upgrade to FO is 3 years and command time is 10.5 years – which it WAS for those that joined in 2007 and 2014. If you are planning on a career here – plan on 5-6 years as an SO. Plan on 17+ years till command(regardless of whether you join as an FO or SO)

(By the way – top increment on SO scale is reached after three years service. For a First Officer it is after about 13 years. )

Good info very accurate I would say, only thing you don’t mention and it’s probably just because it’s hard to now the numbers is the ever increasing resignations.

Good job otherwise.

think he was referring to 3yrs to Fo joining in 2013

Triple7driver
No! Not at all! If you want an accurate idea for current employees just post on the thread in AOA forums or PM here or there!

Broke idiot - in a way the data is reflective of the resignations in that command and FO upgrade plans account for past CN and FO departures. The current high resignation rate is predominantly from lower ranks so not too much distortion of my time to command estimates. However I have assumed a growth rate starting from late this year- if it doesn’t grow due resignations time to upgrade will stretch out!

We are losing a lot of CNs but a lot due retirement- that was foreseeable. So most of the unforeseen resignations are from the FO/SO ranks


Current employees
The above does not mean anyone joining before the end of this year will have 3-4/10.5 years to FO/Command. If you joined in say, late 2010, your time to command would be about 14.5 years(ie mid 2025) based on the 2018 plan and assuming back to long term growth from the end of this year. Remember, we have actually not grown for the last three years.

Chances are any xpat joining now will resign within the first 5 years.
So 30 years for a CX command is optimistic. The average pilot joining CX now will never hold a CX command.

Numero Crunchero

Wannabe chiming in here.. just out of interest if one does not qualify as a JFO after all those years of babysitting the autopilot do they get to continue as an SO or do they get fired? cheers

I’m not NC, but to answer your question about “professional second officers”, no, CX does not continue employment if the SO candidate fails to upgrade.

The only time SOs get to babysit the autopilot is if they are seated with a captain and said captain is operating the sector as PM and said captain decides he wants to continue with the radio and flight plan paperwork.

So expect to touch the autopilot maybe once a month, if that, for half a decade as said above.

Oh dear.. it seems to me like some cheap way of finding a "qualified" personnel to fill up the flight deck on a long haul flight, just to do the most mundane stuff...sure a free cadet course is hugely tempting but I think I'll pass on that.

Gotta thank you all for providing vital information which the typical starry-eyed wannabe would otherwise not know!

Warm body. Effectively that is all they need an SO for (not meaning to be condescending, just realistic as to how CX management see most of you). They are happy to wasted upwards of 5 years of your productive pilot life. Anyone coming here as an SO now is effectively wasting a large percentage of their career potential. Harsh, but true nonetheless.

CXs tactic is basically to get the rusty seniority handcuffs onto you with shiny jets, just enough pay and useless hours for the time as SO. By the time you're ready to leave you'll have lost 7 years minimum now.

So tell me, how long to widebody FO at Qantas?

Or Command.

Really?!?

What ever happened to being a pilot? :ugh:

The career path at Cathay consists of years watching someone else fly, a compressed conversion course followed by 80 (or so) sectors where you actually get to fly. If you don't pass - you're fired. If you do pass, you get to operate 24 sectors a year - probably down closer 12 (1/mth) as Relief.

Find a Company and learn to fly. It won't happen in Hong Kong. Those days are long gone.

You are not adding to the informed debate by introducing incommensurable information.
Home country versus expat, narrow body versus widebody - who cares.
Look at your potential position say 10 years (married with children), then 20 years, then 30 years (kids left home) down the track and see what is an acceptable option.

I couldn't agree with you more bm330. Unfortunately, the passion for aviation is non-existent in a large percentage of the new joiners that I fly with. Could be that they never really gave a sh!t or that Cathay has sucked the enjoyment right out of the job.

For those of you that actually want to be pilots and fly, CX is not the place. You will be far happier and ultimately more competent if you join a company where you will get plenty of hands-on flying.

These are the confirmed numbers of who has left since October 2017.

37 Captains (7 from bellow 500 senirotiy, who probably hit 65)
11 Fo's
10 So's

Total 57

The list is not 100% accurate with regards to the SO's and Fo's as the list with DEFO messes up the numbers.

This does not include the pilots that have given notice, these are the ones that have phsically left the building.

Will be interesting to see how many are serving our their three month notice from the beginning of the year. The numbers are starting to add up. Those that have left have already secured their seniority numbers at their new carriers.

I believe 3 or 4 YVR based Captains just handed in their notices. Not many left on that base now.

Considering that 10 years ago they introduced cos 08, so I wonder how many guys are going to reach 65 and 55 ( cos 99) during the next few months?

There was an ex-CX FO who ran these numbers. They were so discouraging that he left ASAP for Delta and is now a captain there. CX is a very young pilot group. If you think retirements are going to catapult you up the seniority list, think again! Resignations? Perhaps, we shall see. Of course, if enough resign, there won’t be an airline to fly for anymore.

This thread is an eye opener. I was thinking of applying for a SO position and I might still do it, but it would only be gain some widebody experience. I will try to follow how things evolve at CX and possibly apply in future as FO and consider CX as a long term career option in the unlikely event time to command reduces to less than 10 years. I want career progression.

Stay away! SO time is NOT widebody experience. It’s no experience at all. As for time to command, it’s above 11 years now and heading UP rapidly. There is almost no movement presently.

Thanks for the hint. I might consider it in a couple of years when I might qualify for a DEFO – depending on time to command trend.

Time to command trend only going up

It’s evident that they have NO plans to grow the airline, but that any growth will be on the KA side, or shrinking the CX side. Yes, SO time will be rapidly growing PAST 6 years, doesn’t count for anything, and I don’t think time to command will come down below 12 years, and could go as high as 15. Hiring needs on a global scale are so good right now, I can’t imagine why anyone would want to come to CX.

Plain pilot: since you are on this thread, I assume you read the very first post that said
, so I wonder where you are plucking "go as high as 15 years" from?

I assume also that you read the thread as well! There were numbers that were sprayed all over the board, 17, 17+, 30.3 (had to laugh on that one, c’mon, .3???) as I assume you read. The number that was landed on at the end was 17+, as I assume you read. 15 isn’t that far off of 17+. I’massuming you have basic math skills. I’m assuming you’re reading this too.

The “plucking” of the number comes from my intuition that Cathay will not be a viable employer if they are sitting at 30.3 years to command. What I’m considering, is that even as we’ve seen resignations increase at an amazing rate for this airline, I believe that they will only increase, and increase among senior FO’s, which will affect the upgrade time. Not dramatically, but 30.3 is “off reservation.” IMHO.

Now, I’m assuming we are on the same team, and the reason we’re on this thread is we want as many people as we can to know that CX isn’t the employer they used to be, and we’re desperately hoping enough folks leave before we do to get our kind employers attention and get us some things sorted out. Oh wait, I’ve already got apps out as that hope is shot. Good luck.

I’m assuming you’ll need it. Pluck up your courage, mate.

So let’s say you are going to take 17 years to command, you then need to get to Senior Captain 7 level before you get the $30+ HKPA. That is 26 years at Cathay before you can afford a 3 bedroom apartment!

For a new joiner, 17-20 years to command sounds about right to me. DFO has stated growth rate is targeted at between 3-4% PA. Numero Crunchero is correct, airline has been static over past 3 years.

Assuming a command comes around every time the airline doubles in size (and yes, that is a conservative assumption - if number of Captains required is less than half of total aircrew, airline would need to more than double in size), then command would be around 18 years (4% growth)-24 years (3% growth).

So 20 years + is probably a good ball park figure to use for a guy joining now.

Thats not what CX are telling guys when they interview them........

You are right, Voyager. But I think it's actually worse than that because you (accurately) used AT's growth rate forecasts!

Surely she can't be telling the truth on this, but lying on everything else?

Projecting time to command for a 2018 new joiner is nearly impossible, especially for a time horizon extending that far out (15-20+ years). There are so many unknowns. Will there be growth? If so, at what rate? Will there be contraction? Yes, this is often rumoured and consistent with many 77W going back to lessors and a possible spin-off of all or some of the cargo operation. Will the airline be sold off to the Mainland or some other bidder? Or will it just go out of business altogether and the assets sold off? How many will resign and retire early? This will largely be driven by hiring at other airlines. Also, many of the NJers now have no chance to pass the command course at the current standard. Will the standards go down for captains as they have for FOs and SOs?

So many questions, so few answers. Standard CX! Uncertainty abounds and drives good employees away... It could be such a great job but simply isn’t. The lack of a true seniority system and roster bidding/control makes CX a ridiculous outlier in the airline industry. Change or fail! It really is that simple. Actions, not words...

Don’t worry, soon you will upgrade in just a matter of months with direct entry Capt. The clowns on the third floor will decide not one FO is worthy enough to command a A-330 to TPE.
Doubt it??? Just watch it happen.

or try lucky air

The vast majority of commands in the future will be via the Dragon stream and it will be less than 2 years to command for the foreseeable future.
KA is about to be fully integrated into CX and all the A330’s transferred to their AOC as they increase their pilot numbers via recruiting and secondment from CX.
The inbound narrow body replacement/expansion will also fuel the growth and quick command progression. Some will argue that they don’t have the training capacity and that the command course pass rate is abysmal, but that will be “altered” and adjusted by CX. The KA management pilots are just as eager to feather their own nests as the CX management pilots and SSI’s.

While the above makes sense, I have yet to hear anything to this effect from the third floor or otherwise. How do you know this?

While I have no reason to doubt Farman's knowledge on this matter, I suspect that our 3rd floor would be the last to know, so you not hearing anything from there is probably not significant.

So how will that work when they seem determined to drive KA into CC and a training ban too?

Like everything else, it will come as a complete 'surprise' to our management.

depends what fleet you are on, will probably become difficult with the new rostering program they will be using soon. Putting a single day of reserve in the middle of a block of days off so you can't go anywhere