Why would you come to CX?
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 552
Likes: 22
From: Hong Kong
In the last 50 years, on western civil aircraft, how many sudden cases of loss of cabin pressure and subsequent application of 10-20 sec of TUC? Now consider the number of flights where it did not happen. Then consider the total flight time of all flights globally and put it in relation to the total time of a long haul flight with an inexperienced SO alone in the seat.
I think Magenta is not far off, less than one in a billion would be my guess.
I think Magenta is not far off, less than one in a billion would be my guess.
The chance of losing an engine at precisely V1 on a heavy weight take off is infinitely small. Yet, it is the worst case scenario…so regardless of the small chance…we constantly train for the worst case scenario. We don’t not train for it because the chance of it occurring on the line is small.
Do you think it was weak men or strong men that oversaw the development of the 737 Max?
Joined: Jan 2024
Posts: 51
Likes: 2
From: Hong Kong
You argued that the chances of an explosive decompression are less than a billion to one.
The chance of losing an engine at precisely V1 on a heavy weight take off is infinitely small. Yet, it is the worst case scenario…so regardless of the small chance…we constantly train for the worst case scenario. We don’t not train for it because the chance of it occurring on the line is small.
Do you think it was weak men or strong men that oversaw the development of the 737 Max?
The chance of losing an engine at precisely V1 on a heavy weight take off is infinitely small. Yet, it is the worst case scenario…so regardless of the small chance…we constantly train for the worst case scenario. We don’t not train for it because the chance of it occurring on the line is small.
Do you think it was weak men or strong men that oversaw the development of the 737 Max?
And again, what makes me "weak" by arguing with a probality? And what has the 737 to do with it? I have no clue ( and neither have you) what exactly went wrong at Boeing, plus it is completely out of context.
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 393
Likes: 94
From: UK
V for Vendetta
Totally agree.
Just before I retired I had a line SO on a check ride that was completely unaware of the requirement for pressure breathing above 35,000’; he was also adamant that the concept of “Time of Useful Consciousness” regarding the onset of hypoxia in a high altitude decompression was a myth because he could hold his breath for over a minute…..
He was a fully rated P2X line pilot.
As I posted earlier…what could go wrong?
Totally agree.
Just before I retired I had a line SO on a check ride that was completely unaware of the requirement for pressure breathing above 35,000’; he was also adamant that the concept of “Time of Useful Consciousness” regarding the onset of hypoxia in a high altitude decompression was a myth because he could hold his breath for over a minute…..
He was a fully rated P2X line pilot.
As I posted earlier…what could go wrong?
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 393
Likes: 94
From: UK
V for Vendetta
Totally agree.
Just before I retired I had a line SO on a check ride that was completely unaware of the requirement for pressure breathing above 35,000’; he was also adamant that the concept of “Time of Useful Consciousness” regarding the onset of hypoxia in a high altitude decompression was a myth because he could hold his breath for over a minute…..
He was a fully rated P2X line pilot.
As I posted earlier…what could go wrong?
Totally agree.
Just before I retired I had a line SO on a check ride that was completely unaware of the requirement for pressure breathing above 35,000’; he was also adamant that the concept of “Time of Useful Consciousness” regarding the onset of hypoxia in a high altitude decompression was a myth because he could hold his breath for over a minute…..
He was a fully rated P2X line pilot.
As I posted earlier…what could go wrong?
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 393
Likes: 94
From: UK
In the last 50 years, on western civil aircraft, how many sudden cases of loss of cabin pressure and subsequent application of 10-20 sec of TUC? Now consider the number of flights where it did not happen. Then consider the total flight time of all flights globally and put it in relation to the total time of a long haul flight with an inexperienced SO alone in the seat.
I think Magenta is not far off, less than one in a billion would be my guess.
I think Magenta is not far off, less than one in a billion would be my guess.
PS aircraft with the auto depress systems have malfunctioned royally in the recent past.
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 393
Likes: 94
From: UK
The odds of an explosive decompression in the cockpit are about 1/billion or even more. If that did happen then you'd have 10 seconds consciousness, BUT you'd probably die from frostbite, as well as your top lips being ripped off and your lungs exploding as 900kph wind hits them, plus you wouldn't be able to see anything anyway.. but a "normal" explosive decompression somewhere on the plane would still take a long time to suck out all the air, so the 10 seconds isn't really accurate and you would have plenty time to don your mask and get the old Captain and Co-Pilot to hurry back into the cockpit for any help you may need...
I'm pretty sure a SO can work out how to descend the plane without ripping the wings off her
I'm pretty sure a SO can work out how to descend the plane without ripping the wings off her
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 393
Likes: 94
From: UK
So you are saying probability doesn't matter? Or that the estimate is wrong? And where is the association to the 737 Max? Or to an engine fail at V1? I am discussing a specific threat in cruise with an SO as sole occupant. If you disagree with the proposed ratio you are welcome to offer an alternative number. Maybe I am wrong. But simply stating my thinking is limited is, well, quite limited indeed. And what is the meaning of "weak" and "hard times" in this context? Is trading insults without substance "strong"?
Joined: Jan 2024
Posts: 51
Likes: 2
From: Hong Kong
Your argument doesn't make sense to me. We do train rapid depress as well, all the time. I also never proposed to stop preparing or training crew for highly improbable events.
And again, what makes me "weak" by arguing with a probality? And what has the 737 to do with it? I have no clue ( and neither have you) what exactly went wrong at Boeing, plus it is completely out of context.
And again, what makes me "weak" by arguing with a probality? And what has the 737 to do with it? I have no clue ( and neither have you) what exactly went wrong at Boeing, plus it is completely out of context.
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 393
Likes: 94
From: UK
Joined: Apr 2022
Posts: 15
Likes: 11
From: Cairns
I agree that the level of experience is reaching a rock bottom but some of you are acting like an explosive decompression is an every day event. And that it will just so happen to happen when the other pilot is in the toilet. And that it will be senior pilot in the toilet. And that the SO will not react. You probably have better odds of a plane crashing due to an asteroid hitting it than the above scenario.
Chief Bottle Washer
Joined: Sep 2000
Aviation Qualifications: ATPL
Posts: 7,280
Likes: 1,441
From: PPRuNe
He started an another username to continue Cathay bashing which has been removed along with many posts; work it out yourself! Trolling will never pay off in the long run 🙊🙈
