Fragrant Harbour A forum for the large number of pilots (expats and locals) based with the various airlines in Hong Kong. Air Traffic Controllers are also warmly welcomed into the forum.

Face Masks

Old 23rd Apr 2020, 04:25
  #41 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Location: Hong Kong, SAR.
Posts: 10
Originally Posted by cxorcist View Post
Possibly, but this virus is far more widespread than people think. Recent antibody testing is revealing vast portions of the population have had the virus. I think the most vulnerable are being taken down regardless of masks, social distancing, stay at home orders, etc. Herd immunity is the only way get on with living until there is a vaccine. The world cannot wait 12-18 months. If it does, there wonít be anything left.
I was discussing wearing masks, not closing down the world.
Besides, I keep on reading reports about people getting re-infected and immunity not being so certain.
Oasis is offline  
Old 23rd Apr 2020, 14:50
  #42 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Polar Route
Posts: 2,009
Originally Posted by Oasis View Post
I was discussing wearing masks, not closing down the world.
Besides, I keep on reading reports about people getting re-infected and immunity not being so certain.
Re-infected and sick or just testing positive a second time? Big difference!
cxorcist is offline  
Old 24th Apr 2020, 06:15
  #43 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Location: Hong Kong, SAR.
Posts: 10
Originally Posted by cxorcist View Post
Re-infected and sick or just testing positive a second time? Big difference!
Who knows whatís really going on, but this guy tested positive again two months after contracting covid. Some up to 70 days.
One thing is for certain: this disease is something else..


.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-patients-ins-idUSKCN2240HI
Oasis is offline  
Old 24th Apr 2020, 22:33
  #44 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Polar Route
Posts: 2,009
Originally Posted by Oasis View Post
Who knows whatís really going on, but this guy tested positive again two months after contracting covid. Some up to 70 days.
One thing is for certain: this disease is something else..


.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-patients-ins-idUSKCN2240HI
This disease is something else alright... VERY contagious, not very deadly, but doing a darn good job of destroying the global economy.
cxorcist is offline  
Old 25th Apr 2020, 00:22
  #45 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: HKG
Posts: 171
Just sit in the sun and shoot some disinfectant and you will be cured!
controlledrest is offline  
Old 25th Apr 2020, 02:36
  #46 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 600
Originally Posted by cxorcist View Post
This disease is something else alright... VERY contagious, not very deadly, but doing a darn good job of destroying the global economy.
Disclaimer: I don't know the answer to this question.

Do you think the mortality rate might be higher if stay-at-home orders and social distancing guidelines were not in place, due to the inevitable additional burden on already stretched healthcare services?

STP
Steve the Pirate is offline  
Old 25th Apr 2020, 04:20
  #47 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Polar Route
Posts: 2,009
Originally Posted by Steve the Pirate View Post
Disclaimer: I don't know the answer to this question.

Do you think the mortality rate might be higher if stay-at-home orders and social distancing guidelines were not in place, due to the inevitable additional burden on already stretched healthcare services?

STP
Actually, the mortality rate (as I understand it) is how deadly the virus is. All the evidence I have seen is that it is less than 1%, perhaps significantly, but not as low as the flu at 0.1%. Antibody testing is revealing MUCH higher levels of infection than the official tallies, which makes the denominator much bigger while leaving the numerator (deaths) constant.

Certainly, the total deaths would be higher, but not the mortality (death rate), if preventative measures were not in place. In fact, one could argue that the preventative measures keep the denominator smaller than it would otherwise be (herd immunity?), but perhaps also the numerator as well, especially if (as you alluded to) the medical systems were to become overwhelmed. The parallel being that most diseases are more deadly in third world countries where sanitation and health care systems are less prevalent and advanced.

Iím no epidemiologist, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, courtesy of Cathay Pacific!
cxorcist is offline  
Old 25th Apr 2020, 09:58
  #48 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 600
Originally Posted by cxorcist View Post
Certainly, the total deaths would be higher, but not the mortality (death rate), if preventative measures were not in place.
To selectively quote, you're right, I should have said total deaths. Arguably, even though antibody testing might be revealing higher numbers of infections, surely an unknown is the number of deaths that might have been prevented by potential asymptomatic spread due to the measures in place? I'm not an epidemiologist either.

Hope you didn't contract anything in the Holiday Inn!

STP
Steve the Pirate is offline  
Old 25th Apr 2020, 14:22
  #49 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Polar Route
Posts: 2,009
Originally Posted by Steve the Pirate View Post
To selectively quote, you're right, I should have said total deaths. Arguably, even though antibody testing might be revealing higher numbers of infections, surely an unknown is the number of deaths that might have been prevented by potential asymptomatic spread due to the measures in place? I'm not an epidemiologist either.

Hope you didn't contract anything in the Holiday Inn!

STP
Yes, and the questions now are... how many will die from the global depression the world now has? And how deadly will second and possibly third waves be due to less herd immunity? Iím not saying we should have let the virus spread, but it seems we are overcooking the goose, possibly for political reasons, and now have much more public debt AND a global depression. Thank you China!
cxorcist is offline  
Old 25th Apr 2020, 15:10
  #50 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: The Back of Beyond
Posts: 364
Indeed, thank you China!

I guess we're all paying for it now, for our over reliance on cheap plastic crap, and cheap labour from China.

Now we are paying the price. It should have never been allowed to happen in the first place.

All down to greed and profit, etc etc.

The best we can hope for is that this is the death knell for China's expansion and influence. We all need to amputate the bully and shut them out of the global playground. (granted, not great for CX's future if China is ostracised)...

And to answer the question regarding how many people will die? IMHO - the more the better. Let's get the population down to a manageable level.

Darwinism at its finest, especially when people in Trump's America are quite literally drinking the disinfectant/kool aid. Good! Keep it up.
Flying Clog is offline  

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Do Not Sell My Personal Information

Copyright © 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.