Originally Posted by
Steve the Pirate
Disclaimer: I don't know the answer to this question.
Do you think the mortality rate might be higher if stay-at-home orders and social distancing guidelines were not in place, due to the inevitable additional burden on already stretched healthcare services?
STP
Actually, the mortality rate (as I understand it) is how deadly the virus is. All the evidence I have seen is that it is less than 1%, perhaps significantly, but not as low as the flu at 0.1%. Antibody testing is revealing MUCH higher levels of infection than the official tallies, which makes the denominator much bigger while leaving the numerator (deaths) constant.
Certainly, the total deaths would be higher, but not the mortality (death rate), if preventative measures were not in place. In fact, one could argue that the preventative measures keep the denominator smaller than it would otherwise be (herd immunity?), but perhaps also the numerator as well, especially if (as you alluded to) the medical systems were to become overwhelmed. The parallel being that most diseases are more deadly in third world countries where sanitation and health care systems are less prevalent and advanced.
I’m no epidemiologist, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, courtesy of Cathay Pacific!