Fragrant Harbour A forum for the large number of pilots (expats and locals) based with the various airlines in Hong Kong. Air Traffic Controllers are also warmly welcomed into the forum.

F/O for life

Old 1st Jan 2012, 09:10
  #1 (permalink)  
711
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Up in the air
Age: 53
Posts: 195
F/O for life

Want to know your time to command ( if you pass the course that is)?

Simply divide the people ahead of you in seniority by the expected upgrades per year.

Example : Join now equals 1600 divided by 49 (upgrades 2011, and that was a good year) = 30 years

711 is offline  
Old 1st Jan 2012, 09:15
  #2 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cupboard
Posts: 264
Rounding down just makes it sound better:

1600/49 = 32.6 years
Iron Skillet is offline  
Old 1st Jan 2012, 09:16
  #3 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: HK
Posts: 49
Gee Whizzz

Boy-O-Boy 711!!

Your maths is awesome. Seriously.

You'll get a quicker command for sure, what with that mathematical acuity of yours.

larrikan larry is offline  
Old 1st Jan 2012, 09:52
  #4 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Brexitland
Posts: 1,122
Hey Einstein
Are there going to be no retirements in your 32.6 years. Or resignations? Or sickness?
11 years is bad but 32 is plain wrong.
Arfur Dent is offline  
Old 1st Jan 2012, 10:05
  #5 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 762
You ain't no Einstein

Hey Arfur, are you thick or something? No where did he mention any connection to retirements. This is simply about the training department's ability to train captains.

They have admitted in writing a total of 49 successful commands in 2011, which, as 711 points out, is a good year. Ok, it's not their absolute best year ever, but there is an upper limit on training capacity.

For example, doubling last year's total to 98 would bring it down to about 16 years, still not a quick command. However, 98 is not physically possible.

Unless of course more people volunteer for training......

They are still calling for more training volunteers. If they want you to do 30% more work, maybe they should pay 30% extra, rather than 10%.
broadband circuit is offline  
Old 1st Jan 2012, 10:59
  #6 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: HKG
Age: 43
Posts: 982
They could switch to a normal command course and not the fiasco that happens now. How long does it take and how many sectors/checks to change seats? Odd at CX when it comes to command courses.
SloppyJoe is offline  
Old 1st Jan 2012, 11:01
  #7 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Brexitland
Posts: 1,122
No need to be rude Broadband just 'cos it's anonymous.
No I don't think I'm thick but you have proved my point really. 16 is a long way from 32 isn't it??
Reducing the ludicrous length of the so called 'course' would be a brilliant idea so it obviously won't happen!
Arfur Dent is offline  
Old 1st Jan 2012, 11:10
  #8 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: asia
Posts: 950
Very good point sloppy, having done 3 command courses with normal companies, I can tell you it generally takes 2 months from woah to go.
Of course, that's just your " average " jet command, you are not a qualified shuttle commander after a " meagre " 2 months
hongkongfooey is offline  
Old 1st Jan 2012, 11:36
  #9 (permalink)  
711
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Up in the air
Age: 53
Posts: 195
What was the average number of upgrades/year within the last 10 years ? 20 years ? 30 years?

Why is it, that the massive expansion/early retirements/ sickness etc etc is always something that is ABOUT to happen, but never does??

And some of you call ME naive...
711 is offline  
Old 1st Jan 2012, 11:57
  #10 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cupboard
Posts: 264
Retirements are already included in the above calculation of the current rate of upgrades.

Retirement of a captain may create a captain position for the next FO, as does an increase in the total number of aircraft, but vacancies do not create captains. It is an upgraded FO that creates a captain.

At the current rate of 49 upgrades per year, with no change in manning levels or training rates and assuming that 1600 SOs and FOs ahead of that last pilot on the list, it will take 32.6 years for the last pilot on the list to complete his upgrade.

Besides the minor variables affecting this estimate a little bit, what's wrong with this calculation of the current time to command?
Iron Skillet is offline  
Old 1st Jan 2012, 17:44
  #11 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Out there
Posts: 291
Then there is the age 70
Baywatcher is offline  
Old 1st Jan 2012, 23:59
  #12 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: UK
Posts: 183
Between seniority numbers 700-799 there are 20 FOs. Odds are that these guys will not want / will not do / have failed a command. So assuming 20% of FOs never achieve command within CX despite having the required seniority, then that reduces the TTC for anyone behind them. In addition, you are assuming that none of the FOs ahead of you will be retiring pre command. There are a lot of 'late joiners' in CX and again this will reduce the TTC for the man who 'hangs in there'. On top of that there are probably a number of Freighter capts in the group and they will not be counted as 'doing a command' in the stats.

Baywatcher ..... stop being a tease!!
744drv is offline  
Old 2nd Jan 2012, 07:55
  #13 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 762
"Courses Planned"

What seems to be lost in some of these calculations is not so much the command fail rate (an area in which we are clearly an industry leading airline), but the necessity to double count courses when an unsuccessful trainee has his/her 2nd course 18 mths - 2 years later.

The pass rate fluctuates over time because of many factors, sometimes it's 50%, sometimes it's almost 100%, but let's take the 20% alluded to above, and assume not all of those people want, or are given, a 2nd go, so let's say on average over the years, 10% of first time applicants do a second course.

That means a new joiner today isn't waiting for 1600 command courses to transpire before he gets his, it actually means he is waiting for 1760 course.

Some of my numbers are only my best estimates, and any more exact details would be appreciated, but I'm sure you understand the concept.
broadband circuit is offline  
Old 2nd Jan 2012, 08:07
  #14 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cupboard
Posts: 264
That may become true by June 2012, for someone who joined in 2000, but as of Dec 31st, 2011, and using 2011's upgrade rate, a new joiner will have to wait 32.6 years for his upgrade to captain, as there are 1600 pilots ahead of him and only 49 per year are being upgraded.
Iron Skillet is offline  
Old 2nd Jan 2012, 08:12
  #15 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 1999
Location: The Fragrant Harbour
Age: 45
Posts: 313
The big variable over the next two years for command timing, is how many based FOs are going to come back for commands.

I would guess a significant number of FOs on bases are now nearing the 2 year mark from commands (top 200 seniority of FOs give or take),

Its a tough guess, if there wasnt this double tax issue hanging over their heads i would guess that most if not all would turn down commands and stay on the base especially as its obvious that command bases are a thing of the past for all but the most senior.

But double tax does change the game, how many will comeback to HK?? any thoughts. I know the AKL boys would be mad especially with their new tax ruling. and if i was able to get an FO slot down there i would be content to stay an FO but how many of the others will come back?
flyingkiwi is offline  
Old 2nd Jan 2012, 09:01
  #16 (permalink)  
711
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Up in the air
Age: 53
Posts: 195
Silberfuchs, you must notice yourself the irony when announcing the planned numbers as facts? Also I respectfully disagree with your altered 2011 statistic. Passed commands are those in 2011 and not beyond. ( or you substract those who started their course in 2010, see what I mean?)

The important thing now is in my opinion :

How do we live with the fact of a very very long time to upgrade?

I think it is about time to talk about increasing F/O yearly stages AND the subsequental transition to a higher entry level on the command pay scale.
711 is offline  
Old 2nd Jan 2012, 11:01
  #17 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: UK
Posts: 183
A quick look at payscales shows that we currently have 16 paygrades from joining the company (as an SO) prior to command. Given that we currently take 12/13 years to get to command, is a demand for more paygrades jumping the gun a little? Or was this whole discussion just an excuse to rattle the "gimme more pay or else" brigade?
744drv is offline  
Old 2nd Jan 2012, 11:44
  #18 (permalink)  
711
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Up in the air
Age: 53
Posts: 195
What about the hundreds of very experienced F/O's ( many of them former CPTs) who joined as DFO?

Is your lack of empathy maybe related to the fact that you got your command already? After how many years?

Last edited by 711; 2nd Jan 2012 at 12:25.
711 is offline  
Old 2nd Jan 2012, 13:02
  #19 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: UK
Posts: 183
No I have empathy. I have been in similar positions of stagnating pay. I just felt that we were taking a long slow winding road to raise this subject. Do I remember correctly that last year's paydeal addressed this issue somewhat? I guess the situation gets worse though as COS08 individuals will not get bypass as an additional paygrade. My personal situation is immaterial.
744drv is offline  
Old 2nd Jan 2012, 17:49
  #20 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Helsinki
Age: 44
Posts: 51
Damnnn,

Just think we should be realistic. I was so shocked reading 49 as well. And yet 2011 was not the worst year,especially considering how tough the coming years might become(economic downturn etc etc).

But guess we are all looking at the wrong part of the equation. We should think of the future. It is now more clear than ever that unfortunately our management don't have any ambition for expansion,they want to earn the big bucks as is and conservatively. All machines coming in the next 6-7 years are replacements and we don't hear of any new or any planned destinations.

So the sad part of this story is that there is no expansion thus no real need for any massive commands. Unfortunately the commands in the next 10 years probably will be determined only by retirements and I cross my fingers that age 67 doesn't pop up anytime in the next 10 years. So guess 30+ years to command is pretty realistic.

Damnn want to blame someone but can't. If this is the company's growth rate than this is the company's growth rate. Question is now, HOW IMPORTANT IS YOUR CAREER FOR YOU. Wanna swap money for career? Or sit on that seat for the bucks.

Truth just hurts man......Good Luck guys.

Last edited by gipilot; 2nd Jan 2012 at 22:41.
gipilot is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Do Not Sell My Personal Information

Copyright 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.