Fragrant Harbour A forum for the large number of pilots (expats and locals) based with the various airlines in Hong Kong. Air Traffic Controllers are also warmly welcomed into the forum.

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Old 4th Jan 2012, 10:33
  #41 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Ask Crew Control
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That's the best post I have seen for a long time Landflap. They are questions that are rarely discussed here but commonly discussed on the flight deck.

The Cav
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Old 5th Jan 2012, 01:10
  #42 (permalink)  
crwjerk
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Last attempt was DEC, ASL but after a few mates got seriously harmed in local pubs, I was glad to get the one line reject letter.
One of them "slashed" his own "arm" did he not???
 
Old 5th Jan 2012, 01:39
  #43 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Fragrant Harbour
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crwjerk
that was a DEFO who didn't make it through training.

Anyways, I think time to command will be less then 32 years, more like 16-20 years. I don't think 49 commands a year is representative for the next 10 years with all the outstanding aircraft orders. I believe it will be more like 75-100 commands per year for the coming years. Also taking into consideration that most likely the 3rd runway will be approved and CX will try to get as many of the available slots. Someone went through the trouble to build an age 65 retirement list and posted it on the AOA forum a year or 2 ago. As I recall correctly from 2020 on more than 50 pilots/year hit age 65 and from 2030 on over 100/year.
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Old 5th Jan 2012, 05:04
  #44 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
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"I believe it will be more like 75-100 commands per year for the coming years."


Really....

b.
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Old 5th Jan 2012, 06:07
  #45 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
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Originally Posted by 744drv
What exactly was Oval's contribution to a "forum" there .....

.... Oh yes ..... NOTHING
As I was not intending to contribute to the forum, my post served its purpose and was recognized as such.

Your post, 744drv, is a waste of space.
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Old 5th Jan 2012, 07:24
  #46 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
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I believe it will be more like 75-100 commands per year for the coming years.
I believe the highest we have ever achieved in the past is 80. I don't see how we can exceed or sustain that in the future without some changes being made.
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Old 5th Jan 2012, 07:41
  #47 (permalink)  
 
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I don't see how we can exceed or sustain that in the future without some changes being made.
Agreed. As it stands, 100 MIGHT be achievable in any 1 year (only barely), but it's totally unsustainable over the long term.
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Old 5th Jan 2012, 08:16
  #48 (permalink)  
 
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Agreed also.

Perhaps if there is another SARS-like lull in the proceedings, then we could utilise all the spare capacity to train like the blazes.

Maybe 150 for that year, but clearly unsustainable (too few trainers for too many flying hours, for starters).
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Old 5th Jan 2012, 13:43
  #49 (permalink)  
crwjerk
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No, because when there is a "lull", the company cries poor and stops training as well.
 
Old 5th Jan 2012, 14:14
  #50 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
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Posts: 176
This was a list I developed about two years ago. I believe in 2011 we had more than 5 retirements. This represents everyone at CX leaving at 65 and is not updated. What is interesting is that this shows that we have about 24xx pilots two years ago.....not much diff today.


2011-5
2012-8
2013-11
2014-12
2015-20
2016-27
2017-20
2018-24
2019-44
2020-58
2021-53
2022-51
2023-58
2024-57
2025-58
2026-47
2027-70
2028-62
2029-73
2030-76
2031-81
2032-101
2033-129
2035-137
2036-132
2037-148
2038-125
2039-110
2040-104
2041-95
2042-75
2043-77
2044-77
2045-57
2046-46
2047-42
2048-28
2049-23
2050-8
2051-19
2052-6
2053-2
2054-3
2055-1
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Old 7th Jan 2012, 03:32
  #51 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Asia
Posts: 335
Give and taken

Not to be negative but, with aircraft orders there will be aircraft retirements.

We will be letting older 777s and 747-400 s go I would guess. This will be driven by demand. No demand more old a/c will leave.

FG

Oh and it was not a defo in the slasher's arms it was an SO.

He was a nice guy going through some tough family crap and combined with the stress here at CX it was too much for him.

FG
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Old 7th Jan 2012, 03:41
  #52 (permalink)  
 
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Actually it was a DEFO who was demoted to SO.
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Old 7th Jan 2012, 22:49
  #53 (permalink)  
 
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2031-81
2032-101
2033-129
2035-137
2036-132
2037-148
2038-125
2039-110
2040-104
2041-95
Interesting "bubble" in numbers in 2031 onwards from age 65'ers, cos thats about when all the current COS 99'ers will be retiring too.....but I'm sure they thought about that
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Old 8th Jan 2012, 11:46
  #54 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
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asianeagle...

You seems to have a beef with guys who stayed on Cos99. I'm guessing you are not, and can further only assume that you are either too young or too stupid (or both) to have any real perspective on life. Many guys stayed on Cos99 for 1 or more of the following 3 reasons:

1. Who wants to be doing this crap at 60 or 65, when we could be enjoying our retirement with what's left of our joints at 55?
2. The company's initial 'offer' to change (if you could really call it that) was pathetic, and whether or not they improve the enticement is secondary to the obvious fact that the initial offer did not do enough to make the prospect worth it.
3. Bypass pay. Yes, the company tries to get out of it and not all the people who should be getting are, but guys are getting it and it does make a difference.

If you are bitter because you were forced onto Cos08, I can sympathize, but when did that become the fault of anyone who had the choice and decided to stay on 99? If you joined on 08, well tough luck, but the matter doesn't involve you so shut it. Or, if you had a choice and changed anyway, perhaps you are bitter because you now realize you don't like the choice you made.

In any event good luck at 65...
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Old 8th Jan 2012, 20:11
  #55 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
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gosh all that vitriol from 4 lines. I thought he was talking about the company having thought about the big retirement bulge! I guess you have a greater insight. please be a manager at CX.
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Old 9th Jan 2012, 05:27
  #56 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Hong K ong
Posts: 233
FCOM this !

Great name, maybe its because u always on the transmit button!
If u sat back and actually listened and processed the above info, you may have realized it works to your advantage!

You may have used this info (like many others) 2yrs ago by reading between the lines.

IE Staying on Cos99 and STILL having the option of working beyond 55 and having BPP! Cake & Eat it! NR was laughing at the younger pilots that signed over.. Million dollar morons! (Well not that we have Millions these days anymore)

As there is just no way in HELL the company can have that bubble of 100+ RA65 and another 80+ RA55 guys leaving. IE 180+ leaving for 10years in a row. ie 1800 in ten (assuming you all 30-40 olds had the brains to see this info in this light)

We need more facts as in 10 years from now we are going have to stick together big time and make those retirement numbers work for our advantage and neg better contracts.

But with the SAD state of the AOA it seems the Co are way ahead of us out the gates and have already started C scale, when we should be reaching for a B+ (closer to A scale)

Maybe we need to get rid of JF first though! & get employ some more "brain power" to guide us sheep!

Can someone with some IT sense please set up an Anonymous CX pilots forum! We need a place to clear up all this baggage (like seeing a "shrink") then stick with flying Jets for a living!

Cheers, and for F>>K sake stay on Cos99 and fight the good fight for improved conditions everyone. Stop suggesting some porno idea to management just because it suits you!

and C Scalers that come here with experience I hope you have a plan!

Last edited by crewsunite; 11th Jan 2012 at 15:57.
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Old 9th Jan 2012, 10:40
  #57 (permalink)  
711
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Fcom,Crewsunite et al,

take a deep breath and relax. The decision to switch or not to switch to Cos 08 depended on many individual factors. Don't call somebody stupid because he or she did decide to switch, that isn't very respectful. For me, well above 40, I thought I rather accept (maybe) less money (= no bypass pay), but do have the security of RA 65 in return.

Will Cos99-pilots be able to continue beyond 55? Maybe, maybe not. I think your statements give away a hint of nervousness already, that is precisely what I didn't want to experience.But I can assure you I wish anybody on Cos 99 the best of luck, no hard feelings from my side, please stay as long as you can/want.

My guess is the company will those beyond 55 and willing to stay make to pay something ( reduced housing,benefits,pay, whatever), just not to loose face. Or you maybe lucky and just at the right time there will be a scarcity of qualified crew, who knows..
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Old 9th Jan 2012, 11:04
  #58 (permalink)  
 
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Location: UK
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The voice of reason
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Old 9th Jan 2012, 12:56
  #59 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Hong K ong
Posts: 233
@711 (& Rant at those on Cos99)

Sorry Guys if I let fly with alot of emotion. Doing so once in a while helps me get back to focusing on other things. I just hate doing it here on a public forum. and it would be too embarrassing doing so on the AOA forum. So where else do I go to let off steam..

But my comment was made to those in 30-40 margin!

(assuming all you 30-40 olds had the brains to see this info in this light)

As you are 40+ Cos08 has better security esp if u have a family and no time left to mess around with the risks etc..

What I'm really saying is that Real Facts and statistics etc go along way to help predict a small part of the future. It took someone like Batmann (Thanks a million BTW!!!) to spend hours to produce something which the AoA should have had in spreadsheet before they even began neg on RA65. Tells you something about their preparation!

6P's = Prior Prep Prevents Piss Poor Perf

They did not do it & thus they did not do enough to educate and lead us!
We're still struggling with 25 housing, which in itself is a big saving for the co & now they trying their luck for more, forget change the 1 to a 2 (15-25yrs = done) + FTL and C scale are starting to haunt us. Get a grip everyone. We should be upping a preparation.

Also you suggest continuing past RA55 on reduced terms for Cos09! Are u crazy even suggesting such things you just feeding management with ideas!
We need to educate guys well in advance to do the contrary. I will accept continuing past RA55 on increased terms a bit like the A scalers could have done 3 yrs ago. But some of them were so self centered and impatient to play that game and ruined it for most of those that were gain. (2008 crisis hit and Pilots were totally unprepared) They were powerless then without unity and a plan! Like we are today and will be tomorrow, because we a million dollar morons with no ability for lateral strategies that are practical. Every time we start a clean page with management we offer them something.

Don't be sheep guys.. The heart of the airline in the new decade will be the current 30-40yrs old whom need to be empowered by good leadership which can do due diligence with the 6P's and thus provide a strong platform for us to neg and aviate this company to new high's.

Sorry to say I'm not nervous as I'm a long way into creating a plan B if the above pans out to become a mess.. Sad but true! If the AOA carries on the way it does I don't even think I'll make it to RA55.

It drives us all crazy, I know. As there are many in the company (some 1st class guys in the fleet offices / training & AOA that dedicate massive time to ensuring this company runs on rails. But there are still sooo many missed opportunities... Why? Bad leadership higher up in the Co and the union maybe!

HKA will hopefully add some stimulus to get things going with more integrity here?

BTW - No matter how much bar talk, prune post one does, it will do jack to change things.. We need GREAT leaders to make it all happen!

While we wait "wishfully" for that. For those that have not started, start by leading yourself to having MAX security in life apart from being a just being CX Pilot! and not PH's way either! (Aka crews news)

Back to these figures of "RA bulge" from 2020-40 with peak in the 30's is an hint for a huge opportunity for us to come. Who is going to capitalize 1st? Us in FOP or the bean counters. Well so far they have set the precedence with C scale esp now with LEP >250 hrs intake what's to stop them offering DEFO on Local terms and we seriously lack the synergy to pool our idea's to counter that. Thus are losing another round in the ring. None of us can fight this alone, and with the current arrangement in the union. Until then we'll keep seeing the horrible side of human nature greed and every man for himself!

The AOA forum is dead and this forum just hangs out our dirty laundry!
We need to re-invent yourselves and play catch up fast! Lets start by having a new FORUM! This is the new internet age and most layovers have free internet!

We need to change this C scale bull and get housing and DESO/FO back and have some well balanced / level headed cockpit crews flying for this premium Airline! At make it what it once was! No problem with Cadet's on C scale but stop at 20-30% of hires! If it continues this way, it's a time bomb!

Sorry if I offended some but for all the bitching you'll have to agree with some of my points. Alot of us including me go through parts of our career here with blinkers on..!!

Last comment = PLEASE CAN SOMEONE START A SECURE FORUM!
(Anything is better than this)
We've got alot to talk about..the silence is deafening.

The manager accepts the status quo; the leader challenges it.
The manager has his eye on the bottom line; the leader has his eye on the horizon.
Leaders must encourage their organizations to dance to forms of music yet to be heard.
Good leaders make people feel that they're at the very heart of things, not at the periphery.

Last edited by crewsunite; 11th Jan 2012 at 16:08. Reason: Grama
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Old 9th Jan 2012, 13:07
  #60 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cupboard
Posts: 264
PK, your horrendous yet unique grammar gives you away with each sentence! But a new secure forum won't help because there is always some jackass ready to copy/paste, forward and sell you out.

P.S. How's the writing skills course coming along?
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