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Markets on the up?

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Markets on the up?

Old 7th Apr 2009, 14:34
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Markets on the up?

Yes markets are rallying- they were forecast too about 1 month ago and they will continue to do so in a 5 steps forward 3 steps back approach- to alleviate alot of the the dowbside that has come about since Oct '07.
They will retrace approx 50% (really anywhere from 38-62%) before the next major downside move.

And when that downside move comes, it will make the recent plunge in stocks look exactly what it is- the opening shot!

This bear markey is WAY from over and before it really bottoms - about 2012-2014 you'll see the Dow index below 4000, S&P below 400. As for the more speculative Nasdaq...????

You will see the US enter a state od severe depression (worse than 1930's) and much of the world will follow, though not to the extent of US.

By the way, UK, Oz, HK, China, India, Spain, South America....guess who's immune from all this?????
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Old 7th Apr 2009, 18:28
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I guess you are immune from all this. You will make an absolute fortune with information like this.
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Old 8th Apr 2009, 03:04
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Not saying I'm immune to all this- none of us are.

Merely tried to say that no country will be.
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Old 8th Apr 2009, 03:23
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Monster; I'll be the one who buys your shares at undervalued prices to make my little fortune on the back of your pessimism. The sky's not gonna fall, but the fear is certainly real. My bets are placed.
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Old 8th Apr 2009, 05:42
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Quadspeed-
If you're long at the moment good luck. You should see some price appreciation over next few months. Just be sure not to buy and hold for long term (2-4 years) because buy and hold doesn't work any more. Lots more downside to come.

Cheers Monster
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Old 8th Apr 2009, 05:58
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And monster, what is the basis of your doomsday philosophy?

Something concrete I hope...
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Old 8th Apr 2009, 06:43
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Monster - why are you wasting your time on this forum and in aviation? Certainly with your astounding insight into the world of business and economics you must have made a fortune... Oh yes - flying is just your hobby.
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Old 8th Apr 2009, 08:00
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Go a website https://www.elliottwave.com/ and raed how these market forecasters have picked correctly every single major market turn for several decades.

The whole mess will certainly affect global aviation, as well as a plethora of other industries.

Eduacate yourself
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Old 8th Apr 2009, 08:06
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...hey, take this to PFRUNE....(professional finance rumour network).
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Old 8th Apr 2009, 08:07
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Reasonable post, Monster.

For those that are in denial, or simply don't know they're in denial, there's a lot of information out there to digest. Granted, it would have been better to begin digesting it 10 years ago, at the latest. But it's never, ever too late to learn something new.

Start with When Markets Collide, by PIMCO's main man. Move on to The Black Swan, by Nic Taleb. Listen to what Soros, Greenspan et al are saying. Maybe even subscribe to the FT. Read up on market psychology.

Nothing the US Fed, along with all other federal banks, in total or individually, has done over the last 80 years has stabilised markets when riled. Empirical data is there for you to review, objectively, not subjectively.

This is not a pissing contest, though given we're on PPRuNe and people are understandably fearful, it's sure to turn out that way.

Good to hear from you, Monster.
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Old 8th Apr 2009, 09:16
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For every economist you can find who states this, you'll find another who states that. All of them will quote books, charts, precedence, history.... Astrology, tea leaves, to push their point of view (or best guess if you ask me).

I can't understand how someone can be trained to be an "economist" given you can never get two of them to agree on anything? Who picks the answers for their licensing exams? Maybe they first study to be Meteorologists…learn to issue a forecast then update it after peeking out the window (remember the old upper wind charts in the days before satellites?).

Consider our recent hedging experience…and remember the headlines: "Oil Will Hit $200 A Barrel. Experts Agree Price Can Only Go Up". Some very educated Cathay business people then plotted our hedging course! How did that go?


Watch any business channel. Two years ago I listened to hoards of economists and business experts say the market would remain in Bull territory, the housing prices were on fire, and would continue to rise. You’re a fool if you don’t buy today before it’s too late! And then what happened….everything went the other way!

The "experts" and "economists" don’t have a clue which way to go. Who trained these guys? What Schools did they graduate from? Has anyone asked?

Can you imagine if pilots behaved that way? "Hi Jim, how’s it going mate? So we’re off to San Francisco today. That’s great should be fun. Say Jim, did you ever pass that nasty Nav Exam? Anyway, doesn’t matter, what heading do you think we should fly today? North? You’re crazy, I say south…. Let’s ask the Captain, he's usually right…Hey Captain Wrongway what do you think?"

I’ve learned a couple of things over the years. Firstly, when everyone is running in one direction, it’s probably prudent to go the other way. Secondly, I’ve paid the business experts way too much money!
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Old 8th Apr 2009, 10:55
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Economics is a social science. As such it is about as reliable as the average human.

Nobody has a clue what's coming - however I agree that the crisis is far from over. I think prices will go down again.

AND most importantly - we all need to start actively managing our CX provident fund - buy and hold is dangerous.
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Old 8th Apr 2009, 11:03
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4PW's

Thanks for your post!

My original post was only intended to put out my thoughts about where we are in this economic cycle- based on all the research I do.

The guys I follow are not exactly right ALL the time, regarding every daily twist and turn - who can be?

One thing for certain though- they are the ONLY guys I know who correctly predicted the major turns of world markets- but mainly the US ones. They're US based.

And now they are calling for a Multi-Month rally to relieve alot of the recent downside.

From the top of Oct 07 there will be 5 legs to complete the bear market.
Wave 1 was completed early March 09- we are now at the onset of wave 2 to correct a portion of the wave 1 down move. After that comes Wave 3 which is most always the worst of the bear market- it will be horrific- worldwide- and it is then we will see the firmer roots of economic depression kick in- particularly the US. Talks of war will strengthen. With whom you may ask- most anybody because now the social mood is very angry.
Wave 4 will then correct upwards a portion of wave 3 down- after which the ending move down will be wave 5 down; usually less intense than wave 3 but not necessarily.

It is also typical of wave 2 behaviour that the promise- and talk- of a renewed bull market kicks in. People start to feel better about things.The media will declare the worst behind us and sunny days ahead. WATCH OUT THEN!

It is also natural human behaviour to deride those who speak out thus; the worst hasn't kicked in, social mood (which creates ALL markets-bull and bear) is still hopefully optimistic and the very notion of what I'm relaying seems farfetched. I understand that.

Merely puting my bit in.
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Old 11th Apr 2009, 06:09
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With all this talk of waves - I guess I'd be better off dusting off the surfboard!
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Old 11th Apr 2009, 12:48
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Monster,

I'm assuming you're one of those "charting" types? Not my cup of tea, but I'm always interested in hearing what you reckon anyway! It's all good sport in my opinion! I hope it works for you!

My 2c....I prefer the "great stocks at a good price" and the "buy and hold" philosophy. I've been very lucky...I got out completely in Oct 07, back in around Dec last year, and have just sold it all again last week. Not quite buy and hold, but when it starts to get crazy, I cash out. Rule number one of investing, Don't lose money!!

So, while I'm nothing more than a curious observer of the charting types, I have to agree...this one has "dead cat" written all over it!!

I hate to wish financial harm to anyone, but I've got my fingers crossed we crash again soon and I can get back in at just the right time.....if I do, I'll be farting through silk for the rest of my days, and I can turn flying from a job to a hobby!!
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