For every economist you can find who states this, you'll find another who states that. All of them will quote books, charts, precedence, history.... Astrology, tea leaves, to push their point of view (or best guess if you ask me).
I can't understand how someone can be trained to be an "economist" given you can never get two of them to agree on anything? Who picks the answers for their licensing exams? Maybe they first study to be Meteorologists…learn to issue a forecast then update it after peeking out the window (remember the old upper wind charts in the days before satellites?).
Consider our recent hedging experience…and remember the headlines: "Oil Will Hit $200 A Barrel. Experts Agree Price Can Only Go Up". Some very educated Cathay business people then plotted our hedging course! How did that go?
Watch any business channel. Two years ago I listened to hoards of economists and business experts say the market would remain in Bull territory, the housing prices were on fire, and would continue to rise. You’re a fool if you don’t buy today before it’s too late! And then what happened….everything went the other way!
The "experts" and "economists" don’t have a clue which way to go. Who trained these guys? What Schools did they graduate from? Has anyone asked?
Can you imagine if pilots behaved that way? "Hi Jim, how’s it going mate? So we’re off to San Francisco today. That’s great should be fun. Say Jim, did you ever pass that nasty Nav Exam? Anyway, doesn’t matter, what heading do you think we should fly today? North? You’re crazy, I say south…. Let’s ask the Captain, he's usually right…Hey Captain Wrongway what do you think?"
I’ve learned a couple of things over the years. Firstly, when everyone is running in one direction, it’s probably prudent to go the other way. Secondly, I’ve paid the business experts way too much money!