13th month.....are we getting it?
Join Date: Oct 2006
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kitsune
Yes I will be very surprised if we are not profitable for the year. This assumes that November and December end up pretty much as October unfolded - revenue about 5% below the target, on a weekly basis, and fuel costs about half what they were six months ago. The profit we make will depend on whether they pay 13th month. If they pay it I would say circa $1billion - if they don't pay it, profit around $1.5billion. We will find out in 5months if I'm right;-)
Join Date: Oct 2006
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Hey kitsune,
well I must admit I am surprised. How we went from making only $400m or so from hedging when prices were rising to losing $2.8billion when prices were falling, is beyond me. Some very strange hedging practices - minimal on the way up and lots on the way down! Still, if fuel stays around current levels, CX will be making a killing from the fuel surcharges and the last quarter fuel bill should be around $5billion less so that should counterbalance the loss on the hedge book and falling revenue.
So whilst still a brave prediction, I still think we will be profitable, at the operating level anyway. Who knows, they may do with the 772s what they did with the classics - write them down to 'create' a loss.
well I must admit I am surprised. How we went from making only $400m or so from hedging when prices were rising to losing $2.8billion when prices were falling, is beyond me. Some very strange hedging practices - minimal on the way up and lots on the way down! Still, if fuel stays around current levels, CX will be making a killing from the fuel surcharges and the last quarter fuel bill should be around $5billion less so that should counterbalance the loss on the hedge book and falling revenue.
So whilst still a brave prediction, I still think we will be profitable, at the operating level anyway. Who knows, they may do with the 772s what they did with the classics - write them down to 'create' a loss.
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Bob Tandy's place boozing with Darryl Hill
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Was told today by a manager (dept head) that a buyer has already commited to the 772's, banks though are proving reluctant to finance them ---
This manager in question also stated that the classics are very soon to be thing of the past, much quicker than FOP's has communicated - would not like to be an F/E at present with CX zero job security.
AFL
This manager in question also stated that the classics are very soon to be thing of the past, much quicker than FOP's has communicated - would not like to be an F/E at present with CX zero job security.
AFL
Join Date: Mar 2006
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BandH -
I agree - todays "Standard" article puts that one to bed for this financial year.
The Standard - Hong Kong's First FREE English Newspaper
AFL
I agree - todays "Standard" article puts that one to bed for this financial year.
The Standard - Hong Kong's First FREE English Newspaper
AFL
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Which side of the balance sheet is 10,000,000 shares at HK$15.4, (now worth HK$70,000,000 LESS than when purchased) on? Those who sold at this price were very, very lucky, does anyone know anyone who lucked in......
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Why should these analysts be believed, they did not foresee the crash from the credit bubble - just more hot air and guessing. SWIRE are very good at moving money around their various companies that feed Cathay and hiding it well. Yes there is a downturn but this is just a good way of trying to screw the staff, who have worked hard to save money only to have it wasted on "illegal" cargo dealing and supposedly poor hedging. They should think back to the effect that the GFI had on not paying a profit share, fuel costs rose and other savings were at a reduced level.
Last edited by iceman50; 7th Nov 2008 at 16:31.
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I think that if no 13th month/capped 13th month is paid the fuel bill will increase substantially. That is not to say that people will add huge amounts of fuel but rather not bother to do the little things - not adjust the fuel down when ZFW drops, not ask for short cuts, not step climb because of the "turbulence" etc, etc. The list can go on and on.
The difference will be very noticeable at the end of the day I would imagine.
I think it would be very bad business sense to punish the staff, who have done the little things all year (and made a huge difference), because some bad/unlucky decisions were made upstairs.
If things stay the same all through next year then fair enough - I would accept no 13th month. This year is a different story though.
The difference will be very noticeable at the end of the day I would imagine.
I think it would be very bad business sense to punish the staff, who have done the little things all year (and made a huge difference), because some bad/unlucky decisions were made upstairs.
If things stay the same all through next year then fair enough - I would accept no 13th month. This year is a different story though.
