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Are things picking up ?

 
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Old 9th May 2002, 10:47
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peg
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Are things picking up ?

Just wondered what people felt. Are things slowly picking up in the world of Aussie Aviation, is the future brighter...... or is it still doom and gloom ???
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Old 9th May 2002, 10:54
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When you're flat out on the bottom of the sh!t pit, the future is always brighter than the present.
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Old 9th May 2002, 11:54
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doom and gloom.

dont ask me how I feel.

this industry is starting to make me a person I don't want to be, and I dont even have a job yet.

every man has his limits.

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Old 9th May 2002, 12:03
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Yep.......Things are looking so promising that i'm going to Uni to study something that will get me into a Career for the long term.

Centrelink won't pay off my Debt for Flying training and it seems flying won't pay it off either.

Oh Well...... You Get That !!!!!
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Old 9th May 2002, 12:20
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How good do you people want it to be?

QF and DJ are hiring at a mad rate!

Some of us graduated with our bare CPLs at a time when the airlines hadn't hired in years and didn't hire for a bunch of years after........ie the early to mid 80s......... that meant no movement anywhere in the industry!

Very sorry that you can't get a job at top pay in a shiny jet/turbo prop/piston twin and therefor feel it's all been a terrible waste........that's life I'm afraid.........there always was way more pilots with CPLs than jobs available.......ALWAYS..........that's why those that make it through a combination of bloody hard work, perserverence and luck feel so strongly about their chosen profession.

The only difference now is the advent of forums like this where we have to listen to the whinging about how unfare the system is!


Chuck.
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Old 9th May 2002, 12:46
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Talking

Get a Life Chuckles!
There are people out there that a just looking for a bit of reassurance. Regardless of how the industry is some people just need it.
For those of you who feel like S**T now dont worry. Hold your head high, after all, how many people can fly an aircraft?
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Old 9th May 2002, 13:01
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chuckles
some are probably disillusioned cos they are those hard working form 80's to mid 80's who "made it", and are now unemployed.....
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Old 9th May 2002, 13:37
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WHAT EVER YOU WANT IT TO BE....

I am now a firm believer that the industry is what you make of it, not the other way around,
Some operators are flat out busy and some are quiet, basically the way it has always been.
As far as airlines are concerned if you want it , go and get it.
meet all of thier requirements , jump through thier hoops , and you will get there, don't waste your time on the past because the past is exactly it.
Work hard and smart and it happens well atleast that's what I am hoping for.
Good luck buddy and cheers for the future.
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Old 9th May 2002, 16:34
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Chuck,
Must be great to be in your position. I am also impressed that through those lean years you developed such a compassionate streak. I'm sure all these guys at the bottom of the heap that read your post just want to grow up to be like you!
******.
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Old 9th May 2002, 21:21
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Chill folks. Chuckles meant well and he was being quite truthful. There will always be at least 10 qualified pilots for every job in this industry. It has always been that way and that should be one of the biggest considerations a person faces when they seek to become a professional pilot. However like Chuck said, if you stick to it and keep your chin up then things tend to work out. Plenty of people don't and they are the ones in the bars rubbishing aviation and the pilots. You need "balls", metaphorically speaking, to make it in this industry. Some will get through it more easily than others but the stayers usually get where they want. Chucks point is that the waiting and dry spells should be acting to toughen your resolve because you may need that toughness somewhere in the future. Just ask any former AN pilot about that.
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Old 9th May 2002, 23:54
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Cool I Agree With Chuck

Most of you young fellas have bought the flying school hype about jobs, career blah blah blah hook line & sinker.

It is tough really tough and you have to make sacrifices if you want to get there.

We all know of people that have had a very easy ride and then we know others that seem to get nowhere.

Hey I'm out of work right now but it is not the end of the earth, hey its actually good. I have been to functions I would have normally missed and the wife has got a list of a million things she wants done around the house that would normally have been put on the back burner.

The industry shakeout in OZ at the moment is sorting out the men from the boys so to speak, and if you are at the bottom of the food chain.
YOUR TIME IS NOT NOW.

Just remember there are 600+ ex AN & affiliate drivers out there that may well have a little more "commercial" experience than a fresh wannabe or some one with 1000 hrs saying "downwind touch & go".

Chill and enjoy life until it regains equlibrium.....
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Old 10th May 2002, 00:36
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Cool

Yep agree with you Safe Skies : Aviation is definately what you make of it.

You can either sit around and grumble about it - or try to stay as positive as you possibly can, knowing that your resolve will get you through. (one day)

If you really do want it - you will get it (maybe not tomorrow)

There are times like this in Aviation that really do sort out the people who really do have a passion for it, and those who are interested in the glossy side of flying (that doesnt really exist anyhow).
 
Old 10th May 2002, 01:09
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Get over it - Move on!!!

It seems there are two groups of people on this thread.

1. Those that chalk the unfortunate experiences of the past year up to just another cycle, make the most of their situation, and use it as an incentive to move onto something better.
2. Those that consider that the whole world is against them personally and that, consequently, its is somebody else who has to fix up their problems.

Now put yourself into the seat of a potential employer. Who would you rather have working for you? Therefore who would you give first interviews to?

Before you categorize me as someone sitting on the sidelines with a cushy flying job wondering why all these other people are whinging so much, a little about me. I am not flying at present! I was employed by KD and was cleared to line on the CRJ for 3 weeks when the airline collapsed. My last flight was Sept 12, 01. My whole life as I know it, is presently in storage in Canberra waiting for me to find a permanent place to put it. I moved to AD to take up a part time job lecturing aviation stuff to airline cadets with BAE at Parafield for $25/hour (classroom time). It keeps my brain active, and I can use the time productively to brush up on all those things airlines like to ask at interviews. If I wasn't doing that I would probably be mowing lawns, driving taxis or working in a bar. All the time preparing myself for WHEN the elusive interview finally arrives

Too many of my compatriates, who also lost their jobs, have turned into couch potatos since the collapse. This does nothing for your own self esteem, or to help to get that illusive first interview. What do you put down on your CV as present occupation?

Get off the couch and make it happen!!!

This applies equally to the 500 hour pilot looking for your first job. Keep a positive attitude, travel up North to find a job if you have to, pull beers and clean out dunnies while you wait. It's not fair, but that's the industry you want to be a part of. It has always worked in cycles, and it always will. If you keep an optimistic outlook and beleive in yourself you will succeed.
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Old 10th May 2002, 04:59
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Lightbulb A bigger Picture

Lets always keep in mind the bigger picture. To murder a cliche, I understand that it can be hard to see sometimes as the trees close in around you but there is a whole forest to explore!

I suggest those getting down in the dumps take a look at the Boeing and Airbus websites. They both publish 20 year forecasts for the demand for air transport (and hence airliners and pilots). The Boeing site predicts strong growth in demand for air transport, faster than economic growth. The growth is forecast to be slowest where it has boomed over the years and is already very large in North America and Europe (remember the drastic shortage of experienced pilots there and the subsequent inflating salaries until a few months back?). Forecast growth is higher in Oceania (including Australia) and highest in Northern Asia - read China. Since S11, Boeing have reaffirmed their belief in that forcast for long term growth, predicting that any current downturn from a loss of consumer confidence will be short lived. Airbus basically agree with the Boeing forecast - where they differ (of course) is in the shape of the aircraft (whether they need a super-jumbo). The trend, perhaps, is for larger numbers of smaller aircraft offering higher frequency and point to point services. Smaller aircraft means more pilots.

The initial shocks of September for the consumer of air travel have recovered faster than the airlines expected, and I gather that in China it was barely noticed. Take a look at the airlines going ahead with new aircraft purchases and recommencing cancelled routes around our region.

Yes Ansett has, unfortunately for new airline aspirants, flooded the market around here for a little while, but this is a temporary blip localised in Australia. Airlines have failed since they came into being, but pilot numbers have continued to grow in the long term. The passengers haven't really gone away especially for our domestic routes, and a view that Australia is a relatively safe and stable (let alone relatively cheap) place to holiday should see more overseas tourists coming here especially from Japan, SE Asia and USA. Who do you think Australian Airlines is targeting with their new routes? Is there no demand?

In the meantime, to tread on dangerous ground, I sense that GA is in a spiral dive and will have increasing difficulty in attracting students and developing them to airline experience standards. At the same time I suspect that the IT industry has emerged as a serious competitor to aviation careers for school leavers. The IT industry offers high salaries and travel - a couple of the traditional attractors for wannabe airline pilots. Where will the pilots with sufficient experience come from once the Ansett blip is soaked up? You and Me, that's where.

So, my short answer to the question is get the blinkers off, look at the bigger picture and start to think for the long term rather than the immediate. There endeth the lesson.
Regards,
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Old 10th May 2002, 22:38
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Don't give up!

All I can add is don't give up!.

Those who stick with it will make it. I waited for years for a break until it all fell together and no - I was self funded all the way.

Sell yourself (not for free), Be prepared to move & Network.

Over the years I have seen too many fresh CPL's give up after only a few months sitting around a capital city.

Almost all those I know who have 'made it' tell the same story;

They travelled, they tried anything and they networked. Remember, the guy standing in front of you at the airport canteen may one day be a good contact for a job. A lot of positions are filled by 'who you know'.
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Old 11th May 2002, 04:08
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I realise things are ordinary in oz right now, but people if you are willing to rise to the challenge look abroad for work. Im in PNG & the company I work for has just offered 3 guys that I know, jobs up here. That means at least 1 to 2 GA jobs available in oz. One of the guys was formerly in the Maldives working, another in the Carrabeen, the other from oz. All are from oz but willing to make sacrafices to get ahead in there choosen career. Another guy I know has just got into Virgin, another vacancy in GA in North QLD. The best advice is to keep positive & the resumes flowing to employers. Dont be afraid to look overseas, Ive been in PNG for 8 months, it was a risk but payed off. If you have between 1500hrs to 2000hrs try the PNG regional carriers, as they are looking frequently.
Good Luck & keep focused.
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Old 11th May 2002, 04:51
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I read somewhere that forcast economic growth will be at 4%

Don't quote me, but this year is supposed to have the highest immigration numbers. Mostly young skilled persons.

Economically speaking: more money and more people means that more people will need transport.



--------------------
Keep your nose clean and don't open your mouth useless warranted!


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Old 11th May 2002, 07:19
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Flying may be likened to a relationship, passion gets you there. Passion often dwindles but respect, knowledge, effort etc keeps you there. And it may be rewarding for ever and ever. But sometimes it may be time to call it quits, no hard feelings...or maybe work harder at it? Whatever is right for you. No regrets is the big one.
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Old 11th May 2002, 10:10
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Re all the posts with positive responces and encouragement.

I have alot to say on this as does everyone else it seems.
I am wondering about something.

Many of you posted with comments referring to the people who worked and work hard, will make it. Firstly I can mention a hell of alot of people who didn't in the last 12 years and they are still trying. How much harder do they have to work? Secondly, how do the cadets in the worlds airlines these days, fit in to that 'worked hard for this I deserve it' category. Enlighten me. Some people are just plain lucky, rich etc etc. Yes they worked hard at school but didn't everyone. I have nothing against cadets at all, it's just the way aviation has leant, and will continue too, over the last decade.

I feel sorry for the people who have been putting up with all the crap that GA can offer and not getting the respect and ride that they wanted when they started in this unforgiving industry. I know how it feels to train an eighteen year old only to see them get through the system before you. There isn't any reason nor justice in it. Maybe things will change re pilot recruitment when the real hard workers finally get in and subsequently into
management/ recruitment.

For those who feel the need don't bother roasting me it would be everso boring and not worth the trouble.
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Old 11th May 2002, 11:30
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I think things are slowly picking up and we should see things looking much better later this year. Someone has already mentioned the "cycle". I believe we hit the top or the best part of the cycle in late 1999 and on into 2000. Back then Kendells were introducing the CRJ's, Impulse was gearing up for Jets, VB had announced plans to start and the Qantas regionals were introducing more Dash 8's. During that time there were large movements of GA pilots into the regionals and majors, there many jobs were created in GA. But since early to mid 2001 the brakes were applied and things slowed and the events of SEP 01 hit and the handbrake was pulled. So for those who gained their CPL's or ATPL's in 99 and 00 things were looking great and everyone thought they would walk into that "airline job" very soon. Which leads me to another point.
It could be just me, but it seems most pilots these days what to "Jump before they can walk". Many new CPL and ATPL holders all think they should be in the left hand seat of a jet or flying turbprops has soon as they are issued their licence. I blame this on the Boom time we have just had and the good old flying school lies, about how easy it is to get that "airline job". New pilots entering the industry should look at gaining their CPL licence has the start of their apprenticeship. Many other careers, including the engineers who keep our aircraft flying spend 4 years of learning, before they are qualified to go solo. I'm not saying it will take you 4 years to gain that "airline job", but don't be in a hurry, build and learn more skills.
So you have your CPL so now put it to work;
If you need to stay in a major city (ie family etc), then go get an instructor rating. An instructor rating can be very valuable if you want to do C & T in your "airline" career. If you stay in the city and become an instructor, try to find out where the charter and airline pilots in that city drink and go there and meet them and introduce yourself, don't become a pain, but once in a while drop by again and say hello. Start networking. When you are between flights at you airport and you see a charter or a regional airline aircraft arrive, go over and say hello and ask to have a look around, once again don't be a pain, but you never know, the Chief Pilot of that company could be the pilot. Now the same applies if you have gone bush. Each time you get back to the city drop into that pub etc where the pilots got to drink and when that charter flight or regional airline aircraft drops into that bum f**k airport you are working at, go and say hello.
So after doing the above and still you haven't been lucky enough yet to be snapped up by a major airline (ie QF), you have gained more experience and a good network happening. And you finally get a multi job, once again use this time to learn and meet more people within the industry. So you do this for 1-2 years and if you still have no luck with the major, you finally meet the qualifications for the regionals or the larger turbine freight companies (ie pel-air). So once again your qualifications have increased, just like that apprentice aircraft engineer.
What I've written above may sound easy for some, others may say it's to much like hard work, but remember only those who are motivated will make it into the LH seat of an airline jet. I was Chief Pilot of a turbine and pistion operation in SYD/BK a few years back and all the original pilots whom I employed between 95-97 are now flying jets. One is with QF on the -400, two are with Impulse on the 717 and two are with Virgin Blue. These five guys are there because they had the drive and motivation. These five guys were all self funded. One had a family and didn't take up flying until his mid 30's, he is now in the RH seat of a VB 737. I employed these five guys because they didn't mind getting their hands dirty, they understood that being a charter pilot was more than just flying the aircraft. I spent 7 years in GA before I gained a position with a regional and although I'm not flying jets, I am still doing want I love to do "Fly".
Like many I know pilots who spent 10 years in GA before they made it to the airline, others have made GA their life. Remember it does not matter what you are flying, it's better than being stuck in an office or a factory. If you are in GA, enjoy it, the flying could be the best fun you have in your career.
It may still look all doom and gloom at the moment, but CX are hiring again, Virgin Blue and Qantas are still hiring. Flight West and Skywest have new owners and may need pilots once the new owners bed things down. There also appears to be light at the end of the tunnel for Kendell and Hazelton.
And just to finish, all you new CPL holder's please learn how to write a CV. The position I'm in now I do get to see the CV's that pilot's send in and over 50% need work. I'm still amazed that pilot's are sending in hand written CV's and others or photocopy pages and pages of crap. All 99.9% of the companies want to see is a cover letter (use this to sell youself) and a 1-2 page CV, with your name, address, flying qualifications, hours, endorsements, work history and referees (with phone numbers). Don't bother sending photocopies of references, log book and licence, when you are called in for an interview bring them then.

Last edited by F111; 11th May 2002 at 11:39.
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