A bigger Picture
Lets always keep in mind the bigger picture. To murder a cliche, I understand that it can be hard to see sometimes as the trees close in around you but there is a whole forest to explore!
I suggest those getting down in the dumps take a look at the Boeing and Airbus websites. They both publish 20 year forecasts for the demand for air transport (and hence airliners and pilots). The Boeing site predicts strong growth in demand for air transport, faster than economic growth. The growth is forecast to be slowest where it has boomed over the years and is already very large in North America and Europe (remember the drastic shortage of experienced pilots there and the subsequent inflating salaries until a few months back?). Forecast growth is higher in Oceania (including Australia) and highest in Northern Asia - read China. Since S11, Boeing have reaffirmed their belief in that forcast for long term growth, predicting that any current downturn from a loss of consumer confidence will be short lived. Airbus basically agree with the Boeing forecast - where they differ (of course) is in the shape of the aircraft (whether they need a super-jumbo). The trend, perhaps, is for larger numbers of smaller aircraft offering higher frequency and point to point services. Smaller aircraft means more pilots.
The initial shocks of September for the consumer of air travel have recovered faster than the airlines expected, and I gather that in China it was barely noticed. Take a look at the airlines going ahead with new aircraft purchases and recommencing cancelled routes around our region.
Yes Ansett has, unfortunately for new airline aspirants, flooded the market around here for a little while, but this is a temporary blip localised in Australia. Airlines have failed since they came into being, but pilot numbers have continued to grow in the long term. The passengers haven't really gone away especially for our domestic routes, and a view that Australia is a relatively safe and stable (let alone relatively cheap) place to holiday should see more overseas tourists coming here especially from Japan, SE Asia and USA. Who do you think Australian Airlines is targeting with their new routes? Is there no demand?
In the meantime, to tread on dangerous ground, I sense that GA is in a spiral dive and will have increasing difficulty in attracting students and developing them to airline experience standards. At the same time I suspect that the IT industry has emerged as a serious competitor to aviation careers for school leavers. The IT industry offers high salaries and travel - a couple of the traditional attractors for wannabe airline pilots. Where will the pilots with sufficient experience come from once the Ansett blip is soaked up? You and Me, that's where.
So, my short answer to the question is get the blinkers off, look at the bigger picture and start to think for the long term rather than the immediate. There endeth the lesson.
Regards,