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Vulcan to the Sky, The End? (Merged)

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Old 13th Aug 2006, 22:40
  #421 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by andrewmcharlton
isn't it as simple as the project actually needs £1m pledged or it folds ?

Thats from FI herself.

Finding £250k without the rest is like going swimming in 6ft of water when you're 5'11", its going to end in tears.
*derail:

Dont you mean "diving" in 6ft of water when you're 5'11"?

*back on subject...

WEll even if it is the £1m they need, surely the HLF can sub it some more. There has been money given to lots of unworthy causes in the history of the HLF.. surely this once they can do something to bring back a piece of british aviation history?
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Old 14th Aug 2006, 12:44
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Project Update

Dear PPruners

Yesterday, I was asked by Nigel Bradley to take a look at this forum.

I have to say since leaving my job at internet company Cisco Systems that I have never taken much interest in Forums, since they seem to me to generate rather more heat than they do illumination, but having read the last couple of pages of this thread, there is certainly some illumination that I can supply.

I refer to the following list of questions, that seem to me to be appropriate and worthwhile answering:

1. Please ask him to consider coming onto this forum (or through yourself) and give it to us all 'straight from the horses mouth'?

Happy to do this, hopefully this long posting will supply the answers.

2. If he declines, would you please ask him why not?

That one's easy!

3. Please express the deep and serious concern amongst PPrune members at his lack of comments on the problem?

Understood, having read a couple of pages of this thread.

4. Will you ask him to make a statement to the aviation world, stating EXACTLY where the project stands, what EXACTLY is needed and WHEN it is needed by?

The Engineering Status of the Project now, almost exactly a year after the work on the aircraft started is this:

Introduction

The overhaul task was initially based upon the RAF’s Major Servicing Schedule – costed by the RAF at around 15000 manhours – but enhanced by:

a. The need to create an engineering facility at Bruntingthorpe.

b. A requirement to carry out a complete structural inspection.

c. A policy of refurbishment, instead of on-condition maintenance, for many system components.

d. A more stringent approach to the conditioning of cable looms.

e. Modification of Military Flight System and Rear Spar

Measurement of Progress

The general sequence of any aircraft maintenance task remains:

· Gaining access usually by removal of components,
· Inspection of structure and system components,
· Assessment of the results;
· Where needed, rectification or replacement.
· Refit,
· Functional testing and systems integration

Each task is, of course, fully documented and controlled through a work card system. As at 10th August 06, Marshall Aerospace’s records showed that 4549 work cards had been raised; of these 1408, or 31%, were logged as fully complete.

However, it is important to realise that this is a gross understatement of progress, as many of the open cards have the manhour intensive elements completed and awaiting lower-cost tasks such as availability of spares and refit.

Unusually, a narrative gives a more accurate impression and suggests that the overhaul is about 70% complete.

Review

Structure: Before the Major started, the uncertain condition of the structure was seen as a primary technical risk for two reasons:

a. The alloys used are known to be susceptible to SCC (Stress Corrosion Cracking) and exfoliation corrosion. Visual and radiographic inspection revealed only superficial corrosion; a few bolt-hole inspections (for cracks) need completion, but the only known cracking is in a longeron end fitting bracket in the pressure cabin; this can be repaired or replaced.

b. The structural fatigue life had nearly expired at the end of RAF service; extensive preparation has taken us to the point where Mod 2222 is fully mastered and ready for embodiment. This will release enough fatigue life for the immediate and mid-term flying programmes. If necessary, there is adequate technical information for another modification extending the cleared fatigue life yet further.

Undercarriage: The undercarriage legs now fitted are to provide mobility, as the three primary legs are finishing full overhaul at the approved repair agency. Again, we had been concerned as there was a history of SCC, but they have passed scrutiny.

Hot Air Ducts: These supply very hot air from the ECUs to wing de-icing and cabin pressurisation; unusually, these ducts had also been a structural integrity issue, but ours passed inspection and await re-installation.

ECUs: The eight ECUs remain in their preservative cocoons; they are yet to be run on aircraft but we have good reason to be confident about their condition.

AAPU: An overhauled, low hour unit is ready for installation.

Fuel System: The tank bays are inspected and in good condition; the flexible fuel tanks are to be re-manufactured; the OEM is contracted. Fuel system pumps, filters, valves etc are being serviced.

Cable Looms: where protected, the cable insulation is in good order but exposed runs in undercarriage bays have suffered. Looms supplying vital systems or showing visible damage, have substantially been replaced, but that task is not yet fully complete.

Flying Controls: The nine control surfaces are at their repair agencies for reskinning and the PFCUs with their OEM for servicing.

Cabin: The inspection of the complex cable looms in the cabin is 50% complete; the individual instruments are serviceable, but the panel has yet to be re-designed to accommodate the revised (but not yet finalised) Nav fit. The O2 system is rebuilt, the AVS sub-system removed and the combined pressurisation and heating system awaits testing.

Summary

The processes of overhaul are substantially more than half complete. It is important to acknowledge that virtual completion of the inspection process has shown the aircraft to be in overall good condition, and with knowledge we have come to realise that the risk of technical shock is now very low.

Our major project focus remains the OEMs who are servicing systems and components at no charge: we need to ensure that they meet the planned component need-by dates - we have little leverage over them.

I would encourage all of you to buy the excellent DVD documentary on the Restoration Project to date, published by Primetime Video.
See: http://www.ptvideo.com/videos/Aviation/VulcRest1.html


The Financial Status is this:

As at the end of June 2006 we had spent £2,751,900 since February 2005, split down in the following way:

A/C Purchase £125,000
Hangar rent £278,200
VOC costs £617,200
Marshall Aerospace costs £1,336,800
Education Proj £14000
Non-HLF costs £380700

Of the £2,751,900, the Heritage Lottery Fund (HLF) has funded £2,142,600

VOC costs include everything on the engineering project that is not Marshall Aerospace. Non-HLF costs include everything that we cannot claim from the HLF, including fund-raising and marketing costs, insurance, expenses, accountants, auditors salaries of non-HLF people (including me).

At this point, before anyone asks, I would like to point out that whilst I now receive a salary from VTST via my own consulting company, I have financially sacrificed more than any other individual (except possible David Walton) on this project, having voluntarily given up a £150,000pa job as a director at Cisco in 2000 and led the project full-time for no comparable compensation for 3 and a half years.)

Future Plans

We need to reach first flight, for everyone agrees that the project's world will change when that is achieved. It is also the moment when the aircraft is no longer at risk - we will be able to reposition it, and if necessary have a breathing space before anything else happens. I cannot stress enough how important it is that we make this milestone, which is now on our plan expected in March/April next year.

However, with our current known commitments, the Trust runs out of money at the end of August, and urgently needs an injection of £250k cash before the end of the month to keep us going though September. We are making some progress towards this, but not fast enough.

- Given that the Trust is a limited company and so governed by the laws covering insolvency, the Trustees (= Directors) have had no option but to give all employees one month's notice, with the hope that something will happen to avoid shutdown. It really is down to the wire this time. I know that the Trustees are trying their best to find additional funding as I type.

- The 20-month time delay between the original HLF decision in December 2003 and the actual start of work on the aircraft in August 2005 ate up a fair amount of the funds we had raised. This delay came from all sorts of different reasons, but mainly for contractual, legal and insurance reasons. For example, ensuring that our insurers, Marshall Aerospace's insurers and those of the key critical systems OEMs were all in agreement took some time.

- We have suffered additional costs, mainly from our prime contractor Marshall Aerospace, which on their own have already swallowed all but the entire £695k contingency budget that was in the business plan agreed with the HLF in 2004. That this is happened is a matter of deep regret, because we set expectations with MA from day one that the project was in essence a fixed price one. However MA has been and is taking a strongly commercial view, albeit helping us with a line of credit.

- Lastly, despite the efforts of the Trust's fund-raising arm, we have failed so far to attract a commercial sponsor. Our business plan assumed that we would have attracted sponsorship of at least £500k by now, but so far this has failed to materialise. My own view is that we won't get a commercial sponsor until we demonstrate the aircraft flying, such is the risk-averse nature of modern commerce.

All of our donors and supporters have been absolutely great and very generous, but the Trust's fund-raising arm thinks we may exhausted the existing donor base's resources now. We need rapidly to expand our supporter base.

We also know that we need funding at an average rate of about £125k/month to reach the end of March, by which time we should have made our first flight. My current estimated remaining net cash needed by month to reach first flight are these:

October £159,000
November £234,000
December £239,000
January £150,000
February £93,000
March £81,000

As you can see, we still have challenges ahead, but it is vital that we move from month-on-month uncertainty to some assurancethat we can at least reach first flight - hence the campaign for £1million.

5. Please ask him to explain why he is so confident that the rest of the money will be forthcoming. It may give us some encouragement to pledge more money.

I am not sure that I am totally confident that we will find the rest of the money, but I am confident that if we overcome the current crisis, the momentum that it will give us will be sustainable. The press and media coverage over the past few weeks has been substantial - the people who know about us want us to succeed. We need to turn enthusiasm that into funds, which is what the team is focused on.

One of the reasons why I am confident is the current emphasis on engineering skills. There is a potentially massive problem for the UK with the lack of the young choosing engineering as a career. James Dyson is opening a Technical College to "excite the young in engineering", and I believe fervently the XH558 can make a substantial contribution to making the young think about engineering. A whole generation of youngsters have never seen the aircraft: we can provide them with an unforgettable experience that should start some of them thinking "I want to be part of that".

6. Finally, will you explain to him that very many people like myself WILL NO LONGER give more money to this project until we get some answers to the position of exactly where this project is at, and exactly what is happening?

I do hope the above information provides answers to your questions.

In passing, I would like to point out that the project has been very closely monitored by the HLF since February 2005, who have held very detailed monthly reviews of both engineering and financial status. I cannot fault the HLF's support for this project. Both at a project level and higher in their organisation, the HLF remain in total support, but due to the policies under which they are operate, apparently unlikely to provide any further financial assistance.

I therefore hope that you will feel able to make a donation or a pledge, and, just as importantly, to spread the word far and wide so that others will also donate or pledge. I remain amazed that despite all our efforts, so many are still unaware of what we are trying to do But when these people are informed, they are totally supportive.

See:
http://www.tvoc.co.uk/edonate.php
http://www.vulcan558club.com/Pledge%20form.pdf

The readers of this thread could I believe make the difference.

Unfortunately I am going into hospital tomorrow morning for a potentially serious matter, and will not be surfacing for a number of days. In the meantime please send any questions to the email address at the bottom of this post, which will be answered by the team at Bruntingthorpe.

I also invite you to visit Bruntingthorpe and talk to the team face-to-face. Please call the number below and ask for Denis Parker.

Dr Robert Pleming
Project Director
Vulcan Operating Company division
Vulcan To the Sky Trust - a Registered Charity
0116 247 8145
[email protected]
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Old 14th Aug 2006, 12:49
  #423 (permalink)  
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Robert,

Firstly, thank you for taking the time to post here and bring us up to date. Secondly I wish you a speedy recovery. I hope wew ill all get to see the Vulcan in the air before too long.
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Old 14th Aug 2006, 13:39
  #424 (permalink)  
 
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Great information considering the fundrasing arm of the project is on holiday now until September! Shows who is committed and who is not. Thank you Dr Pleming for the information.

Quite a simple idea, PPRuNers pledge a fiver a month from September 2006 to May 2007 (Vulcan flypast (in the air!) down The Mall on Sunday June 17th.

Pledge it at http://www.vulcan558club.com/Pledge%20form.pdf When sending it off ask for an invite to be sent for the Rollout of Vulcan XH558 on Thursday August 31st at 13.00hrs. Come and see the project, the aeroplane and meet the engineers and have a cup of tea and a piece of cake.

Can we show The Vulcan Operating Company and its employee's we still care?
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Old 14th Aug 2006, 14:01
  #425 (permalink)  
 
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Robert,
Thank you so very much for taking the time to reply to my list of questions, and I have enjoyed reading your reply. These are obviously difficult and uncertain days for you, but I can assure you that you have my utter support once again, and I shall be writing a very strong e mail to HLF in support of your case to release some extra money.
I can assure you that by coming on here and being open and up-front, you will have set a lot of peoples minds at rest, and rekindled their drive and enthusiasm to make the project happen. Thank you Sir.
My e mail to HLF will be sent within the hour, and I will make another donation to the fund later on line.
Good luck and sincere thanks once again.
The Winco
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Old 14th Aug 2006, 14:51
  #426 (permalink)  
 
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Robert,

Thanks for your very clear and comprehensive post.

In your post, you wrote "The 20-month time delay between the original HLF decision in December 2003 and the actual start of work on the aircraft in August 2005 ate up a fair amount of the funds we had raised. This delay came from all sorts of different reasons, but mainly for contractual, legal and insurance reasons. For example, ensuring that our insurers, Marshall Aerospace's insurers and those of the key critical systems OEMs were all in agreement took some time."

As this was obviously not expected, could you give us some rough idea of the scale of funding wich the 20 month delay ate up? Because I think it would not be unreasonable for the HLF to increase their grant by the same amount.

As for Marshall Aerospace, they stand to earn tens, if not hundreds of millions from the RAF Hercules Integrated Operational Support contract, and probably also an equivalent support contract for the TriStar. As announced today, they will eventually relocate to Mildenhall or Wyton; this will undoubtedly also bring in a substantial amount of money. Thus I find it rather shameful of them to have increased their cost element of this project as much as they clearly have and call for them to do their bit to get you through to the first flight date at least.

I also consider that the Bruntignthorpe hangar rent should be waived until the first flight has been made, at the very least.
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Old 14th Aug 2006, 15:05
  #427 (permalink)  
 
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Dr P,
May I also add my thanks to those of others who clearly appreciate your timely intevention in bringing us all up to date with the facts of this matter.
I agree entirely with the comments made by BEagle, and I very much hope that the management at Marshalls take a long hard look at this thread and respond to his call for a 'waiver' of the extra costs favourably. The same goes to Mr W for hangarage costs.

Robert, you have restored my faith in the project, and I will give it all the support I can. Thank you for coming on this forum and answering difficult questions. A cheque for £50.00 will be in the post this afternoon from me, and I would ask other PPruners to follow suit if they are able. I will also write to the HLF and plead for a further cash injection.

Anything else we can do Robert? Anyone else we can write to or lobby?

Kind regards
TSM
'Caruthers, raise a glass to a speedy recovery for the good Doctor!'
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Old 14th Aug 2006, 17:42
  #428 (permalink)  
 
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Just goes to reinforce the opinion of 99.9% of the RAF population that Marshall Aerospace are a complete bunch of money-grabbing swine.

Surely someone can put some extra influence on Marshalls? Are they struggling financially?

My small contribution on it's way.
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Old 14th Aug 2006, 17:48
  #429 (permalink)  
 
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Guys

The edonate system doesn't appear to be working. Anyone have any suggestions?

RK
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Old 14th Aug 2006, 17:56
  #430 (permalink)  
 
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It might be a system glitch at the bank - try tomorrow or the VTS Club site has got an electronic Pledge form running, that way the money stays in your account until it's needed!

VTS Clube here http://www.vulcan558club.com/
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Old 14th Aug 2006, 18:57
  #431 (permalink)  
 
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Hope the direct reply from Dr P has finally ended the continual confusion and that we might now be able to discuss possible ways in which we can do something constructive?

As I've said previously, I think the HLF is the obvious target as despite their claim to be unable or unwilling to help further, we all know that they can, if they want to. As has been mentioned previously, they've poured lots more money into many other projects (Duxford for example) so there's no reason why they couldn't support the project at least until the flight stage.

The real question is how we might be able to persuade HLF that we want them to do this? And that we all want them to step-in, not just a few enthusiasts here and there...
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Old 14th Aug 2006, 20:58
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Robert,
Just to let you know that I have spoken with, and written to, the HLF today. They have assured me that they are 'working closely with the trust' to find a way forward, which I took as encouraging news (they did NOT say they would not be giving you any more ££, which is a bonus I feel)

Tim, I am delighted that you have been proven correct, and I hope you have not taken too much offence at some of the postings on here. If nothing else, it has cleared the air, and we now all know the facts, where we stand and what needs to be done.

To the MD of Marshalls Aerospace: Sir, it would be an enormous gesture of goodwill and generosity if you could see your way to refunding some of the money that you have been paid and received from TVOC. On behalf of all PPruners, please consider your position and standing within the UK aerospace business, and if you feel you are able, then please refund some of the money back, in order that you may reap mlore in the future. Thank you Sir.

The Winco
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Old 14th Aug 2006, 22:12
  #433 (permalink)  
 
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My wife (of younger vintage than me!) thinks the Nimrod is noisy and impressive at displays!!

Would love to be able to take her to a display with a Vulcan displaying, happy memories.
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Old 14th Aug 2006, 22:32
  #434 (permalink)  
 
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Hi guys,

Robert: Thankyou very much for taking my advice and posting your comments here. I can immediately see improvements. Good luck with your Op and hope to see you out and about soon.

So guys we can all pull together now, I hope.
If I may suggest one or two things that are needed, if anyone can help then please do.

Tim: Your site allows visitors to e-mail the HLF. Would it be possible to do the same with The Sun Newspaper (ideally) and / or possibly the Mirror. We need to get the publicity moving and although the Telegraph and Daily Express have run articles, The Sun has approx 3 Million readers, (who don't look at the other papers) and are usually supportive of Britain and British, if we can let them know how important this matter is, maybe they can be helpful (especially with regard to the HLF). I have written to them already but with no response as yet. I feel they will only help if they see a large interest.

Again, everyone can help with this.
Discovery Channel (Wings) is another avenue for publicity. They have been showing the V Force documentaries of late and if you look at their website, the vulcan came 2nd in a Poll of the Best British aircraft. They mistakenly state that all Vulcans are in museums. If they too can be targeted with enough interested parties, they may just give us a mention. Also they could be a potential sponsor.??

I am hoping to talk to Bruce Dickinson in the next day or so, to see if he can help in this matter. I understand he was in the cockpit of XL426 last weekend. So there is some tie in there.

If anyone would like (and has the time) to help, please e-mail me, I have a list of who needs contacting, but this needs some co-ordination so that we are not duplicating our efforts. We need also to tie in with the project office to make sure we don't double up on anything they are currently acting on.

Once again
Regards to Robert

Thanks for reading this.
Nigel
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Old 14th Aug 2006, 22:42
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I'm trying to get more information from as many sources as possible (whilst trying to tackle other tasks at the same time!) but in principle I'd agree that any avenue is worth pursuing. However, I firmly believe that the only practical way of saving the project is the HLF. I think that if all our efforts were directed to putting pressure on the HLF, be it through direct emails, Sun campaigns, television or whatever, then the project could proceed very easily. In terms of Lottery funding, another million or more is nothing, and as I've said before, it's our money that the HLF are spending, and I'm sure we'd all like some more of it to be spent on XH558 instead of some other hair-brained scheme.

I'm all for pursuing any potential avenues but I think that dontations are just not going to to hack-it. Likewise, it seems clear that sponsors are not going to come forward, at least not until the aircraft is seen to be a viable, flying machine. So the HLF is the obvious target, isn't it?
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Old 14th Aug 2006, 23:08
  #436 (permalink)  
 
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Dr P, thank you very much for your post, the information is a great relief to everyone, credit to you for posting it, I hope the fundraising element of TVOC take note what some information can do to change peoples views.

Tim, I totally agree. If you do the maths you will see the amount that was not funded by HLF is by definition donations. Split that across the time period and even back of the cigarette packet calculations show the rate of donations is simply never going to be enough. At least Dr P is frank about the prospects and timing of getting a commercial sponsor, realism that seems to have been previously lacking by others.

I raise a glass to all the technical folk who have ploughed on so hard in such trying circumstances.

If you read the quote from HLF on the last newsletter, close scrutiny shows that the words can, if we interpret them as we see fit, indicate a potential for extra help from HLF. A look at their web site gives named contacts and email addresses.

This may be a dumb remark but is their scope to build any new hangarage on site that after capital outlay might be free of rent or minimal anyway ? Seems to me that the Mr Walton is on a tidy number looking at the rental outlays, has anyone got contact details for him ?
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Old 15th Aug 2006, 08:24
  #437 (permalink)  
 
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If you go to this site:

http://www.airsceneuk.org.uk/hangar/...h558/xh558.htm

you can send your message direct to the HLF.

PLEASE DO SO!!
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Old 15th Aug 2006, 08:58
  #438 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by rudekid
Just goes to reinforce the opinion of 99.9% of the RAF population that Marshall Aerospace are a complete bunch of money-grabbing swine.

Surely someone can put some extra influence on Marshalls? Are they struggling financially?
I don't think that's the case - more like Marshalls anticipated making more money on long-term maintenance and support - or that their committment to the project would be short (remember that initially no one was sure that '558 would be in good enough conditon). When surveyed the airframe proved to be in better condition than they were advised (by BAe perhaps?). The accountants then re-calculated and a larger bill presented.

Or am I being cynical?
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Old 15th Aug 2006, 10:40
  #439 (permalink)  
 
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Reference Beagle's posting, Airscene have already encouraged more than 500 people to send-off emails to HLF, so please add your own message when you can, and ask all your friends to do likewise. Over 500 people already is pretty good going... if we keep-up the bombardment, HLF will not be left under any illusions as to how much support the proect has.

Andrew, regarding the hangarage costs, I'm still looking into this as I'm getting conflicting stories. The latest one I've heard is that the charges my actually be directly due to TVOC's attitude/position, and not down to David Walton as such, but at this stage I can't add anything to this. If it's true, I'll be even more gobsmacked than I already am
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Old 15th Aug 2006, 12:13
  #440 (permalink)  
 
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If you go to http://www.marshallaerospace.com/con...p?id=Directors , you will find the names, e-mail addresses and contact numbers for all the Marshall Aerospace dirctors, should you so wish.....
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