Ohh FFS, it’s here, it’s not going away anytime to soon.

There shouldn’t be a problem getting another job in flying once this is all over with so many of you being qualified doctors/epidemiologists/disease experts....

Corona virus’s do not go away. The common cold and influenza are two examples.

My “impression” is a guess, of course. What I do know is the death rate is less than 3.1 % because there are well documented asymptomatic cases.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...527-0/fulltext

This is interesting.Particularly in hospital mortality as it varies with age. Th graph shows up to about age 50 flu and COVID are about the same, after that age COVID is much more deadly, needing ICI care.

You're including yourself in those ranks, yeah?

Here’s an actual example of the blurred lines associated with COVID death statistics:

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....54c12a10c.jpeg
Was it pneumonia or COVID?

It was not a guess. It was a quoted simple mathematical percentage based on published hard data from the Australian government.
I qualified my statement by saying that I had excluded asymptomatic cases.

I also said that, if you want to include asymptomatic cases in any comparison then you need also to include asymptomatic cases for influenza.
By their very nature any percentages being parried about for asymptomatic cases, either for Covid or for influenza, are no more than a guess.

I think I get that every year, except every 5 or 6 years when it's symptomatic.

I guess some guesses are better than others. There have, since the start of the pandemic, been random test samples done which could be extrapolated to approximate the level of debilitation for a given sample range. The latest figures I read (from a British medical journal publication) were IFR figures varying from 0.37-1.45% (depending on geographical demographics). So you are right, these numbers are guesses (I'd say a statistical estimation would be a better term). So to come up with 4% then a revised 3.1% is a considerably worse guess, almost alarming. My whole beef is why quote a percentage which is of little relevance and considerably more than the better guesses. I have read an article that suggests Covid could be 6 times as deadly Influenza. But these are all generalisations as the widespread data collection for Flu hasn't needed the resources that Covid-19 see's us experiencing today.

But food for thought is required. There is no doubt in my mind that Covid-19 couldn't carry on unchecked. But when making comparisons, Influenza has had centuries of experience to draw upon on making decisions how to treat flu sufferers. We have vaccines for the flu (although it is a lottery to which variant is in the offing). Yet people still die from it. Where Covid ends up in the 'Viral hall of shame' will be determined in a few years. But we are just going to have to learn to live with it.

Well thanks for keeping your argument within logical limits but I will point out one (last) time, the 3.1% is not a guess. It is the statistical value from recorded data in Australia for confirmed Covid cases.

The 4% was just bad rounding and was never intended to be dissected as if it was from published dissertation.

I’m not the one second guessing what medical experts are determining as cause of death for someone

I would question any 'statistic' or 'evidence' that has a financial incentive attached to it. Plus any of the other myriad of tainted evidence that is produced.

Refer my previous quote from John Hopkins.

So what are you proposing to do about it? What does posting crap on a forum do about it?

You’re not going to change the way anyone is handling this, so just accept it and move on. Go get another job in the meantime.

Dude, I'm just venting like you do, and have done for the past 3 or 4 years. I'm not stupid enough to think that anything I type here will change anything. Do you honestly think this board has any influence on any subject whatsoever? I'm fulltime employed, in aviation, in a flying job and not subsidised by jobkeeper or seeker. Just like you were lucky enough to pick up a job with your old employer when you got back from overseas, so did I. Well, not with my old employer, a new one.

The irony-o-meter has gone off the charts considering this forum is extremely vociferous when it comes to T&Cs of pilots.

dr dre,

Post 152 - First of all, if you're going to quote from another post, don't edit the post to suit your argument.

How is a death certificate a more comprehensive and reliable measure of the impact of Covid19, when an ambulance crew declares life extinct, this is normally followed by a doctor attending and confirming/issuing a death certificate, as previously stated, they were sealed, bagged and interred. No examination, just a death certificate that stated cause of death - Covid19. That is not more comprehensive, it's far less, admittedly due to exigent circumstances.


Captain Sir Tom was dying of pneumonia, he tested positive for Covid19 and that's what's on the death certificate.

Yeah sorry McLimit, just sick of reading so much shiiiiiiit

Not sure what you're getting at, but the recording of statistics from death certificates includes deaths that extended beyond 28 days from a positive test, so this is considered more comprehensive. Maybe this article explaining how doctors go about the process of writing a death certificate will help?:

Anti-vaxxers say death certificate guidelines suggest COVID-19 death rate is overstated. Experts beg to differ

How did you see a British person's private medical information? How many co-morbidities did he have listed on his death certificate?

A patient can die with a lot of co-morbidities and causes. Unless a full autopsy or coronial inquest is done it can be a bit difficult to ascertain how much of the morbidity was influenced by each factor. You can excuse British medical workers for having higher priorities on their hands at the moment.

I'm a bit lost at your point, are you saying that Covid deaths are not causing significantly greater deaths than normal because they stuffed up how they report it on death certificates?

It can be a bit confusing with all these factors and co-morbidities and the like, experts get around this by using excess mortality.

Measuring excess mortality gives a clearer picture of the pandemic’s true burden

Also check out the CDC graph of excess death in the US in recent years, compare the 17/18 flu season with the Covid Pandemic on the graph:

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

dr dre,

you believe the body of evidence suggesting that Covid deaths are under-reported, on balance I'm inclined to disagree.

You're also quoting Australian medical protocol, they have a 35/1m death rate compared to the UK's 1606/1m.

Even the excess deaths comparison doesn't work, folk were VERY reluctant to go to hospital, even with serious issues, a lot of folk either died at home or left it too late before calling an ambulance; additionally, it's inevitable that the NHS being a bit busy, some services were curtailed leading to other issues.

Under or over, it doesn't really matter - I'm more concerned about the long term effects, our children's children will be paying for this long after we've gone.

What's your source for an increase in suicides?

When I read the last Coroners report for Victoria, the worst-affected state in Australia, it showed a reduction of suicides in 2020 versus 2019.

Would be interested to know if you have actual data in conflict with the Coroner's report, or whether you are just making an assumption.

Is that at all surprising? Why do you think the media does not report the details of suicides?

I know why they don’t but which is a bigger problem for us to solve?

So back to Prince Mark, 189 contacts tested from 191 and all negative but he still wants restrictions after 6pm tomorrow. This guy is out of control. I would like him to table the full medical advice on this. Masks on for another week? Various gathering restrictions? Based on ONE person having the virus.

A study conducted by Manchester University concluded there was no clear evidence that 2020's Covid lockdown had impacted on the suicide rate. There was a caveat in that there was an increase but this could possibly be accounted for by the year on year suicide increase. But in my opinion, the crucial period will come when government furlough payments come to an end. At this point we will be able to see how many businesses are able to keep their staff employed. That could see widespread job losses which may affect mental wellbeing. Alas, it is a bridge we are destined to cross soon and it may not bode well (surely hope I'm wrong).

I don’t believe influenza is a ‘coronavirus’, nor the common cold, which is a rhinovirus. Just for clarity.

No need to believe, it is a fact that the virusses are different for all three of them :ok:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/symptoms/coldflu.htm

Some common cold virus's are coronavirus's.

Four, actually: HCoV-NL63, HCoV-229E, HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1.

This article discusses them, and the problem of immunity which only lasts around 12 months - a problem that could also exist with SARS-CoV-2 vaccines - we just don't know yet.

Indeed. I think that the prevalence of the rhinovirus version of a cold matches the descriptor ‘common’ more accurately when considered in the context of Icarus2001’s post. But thanks for that - we are all learning all the time - it’s been a very interesting 12 months or so.