Well, this place is open...

:yuk:

"Wuhan has long since recovered from the world's first outbreak of Covid-19. It is now being remembered not as a disaster but as a victory, and with an insistence that the virus came from somewhere - anywhere - but here."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55765875

Hi Duck

Tennis players are little different...it’s all charter, and the numbers are additional to the arrival caps.

And as much as I like to watch Tennis the AO is being reported as if it might end in tears..hopefully not though, we need some inklings of normality.

And wrt Airlines selling seats for future flights, no problems...provided there is an immediate refund if the flight is cancelled. And really if the airlines want to start building confidence in travel (not that the individual Countries (States) of Australia are) immediate refund is one way of starting confidence.

Early data (and I must stress early) from Israel is showing a 30-60% drop in infections after the first dose compared to those who are unvaccinated, regardless of lockdown status. The vaccine doesn't reach full effectiveness until 2 weeks after the second dose, which has barely begun. And a few weeks yet for the numbers to show a decline in hospitalisation, ICU admission and death, which is it's real purpose. Still early days but it looks promising so far.

Another study showed 98% of healthcare workers vaccinated with two doses had high levels of antibodies, far higher than those who were infected with the virus and recovered:

Israeli hospital: 98% of staff who got 2nd shot have high-level COVID antibodies

Depends if you are a glass half full or half empty

Boris Johnson says UK COVID-19 variant could pose higher risk of death - ABC News

taken out of context completely. What they actually said was that for a male over the age of 60 (at risk) there is an “possible” increase in mortality from 10 in 1000 to 13 in 1000 could expect to sadly die. The news outlets have reported this as an increase in mortality of 30%...lies lies and damn statistics I guess.

Well the last time I was in school......10/1000 to 13/1000 was a 30% increase!

Perhaps you didn’t pay enough attention at school then to enable you to look at the detail behind the headlines?
what if you’re not an “at risk 60 year old male”? Turns out there’s not much change from the “old variant”; so it’s far from a 30 % increase in mortality. But perhaps it was a long time since you were last at school?

And I thought that we only needed to divide by 3 or was that multiply by 3 or was that add 3 to be an airline pilot! This is getting hard now. :uhoh:

With very few deaths occurring worldwide in the under 60’s.....and the overwhelming majority of deaths occurring in the over 60’s......your argument just doesn’t stand up!

i wouldn’t pay any attention to anything coming out of the UK. . Boris Johnson yesterday revealed that the Kent coronavirus strain - responsible for the soaring Covid cases recorded in the last month - could be 30 per cent more deadly than older versions of the virus.

However the PM has been accused of 'scaremongering' after failing to present any evidence to back up the terrifying development.

And the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) - the body of scientists which has advised the Government throughout the pandemic - are only 50 per cent sure the new variant could be more fatal.

Professor Robert Dingwall, who sits on the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag) - the subcommittee of Sage which discussed the deadliness of the new strain on Thursday - said the claim that the variant is 30 per cent more lethal is on a 'very fragile' base of evidence and accused the Government of 'exploiting public fear' over the virus.

He told website Reaction: ' The 30 per cent more lethal claim about the virus rests on a very fragile and uncertain base of evidence. NERVTAG has expressed limited confidence in this figure, which should not be the basis for public alarm.'

'It is right not to hide possibly bad news but it is also quite wrong to exploit it to increase public fear and to try to shut down debates about the exit strategy from the current restrictions.'

Chief Scientific advisor Sir Patrick Vallance said during the press conference that evidence the strain is indeed more deadly is still 'weak'.

Public Health England medical director Dr Yvonne Doyle today revealed it is not 'absolutely clear' if a mutation of the virus first found in Kent is more dangerous.

Graham Medley, professor of infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said it is an 'open question' but not a 'game changer' in terms of dealing with the pandemic.

He said: ''The question about whether it is more dangerous in terms of mortality I think is still open. There is evidence it is more dangerous but this is a very dangerous virus," he said.

'In terms of making the situation worse it is not a game changer. It is a very bad thing that is slightly worse.'

And Dr Mike Tildesley, a member of Sage subgroup the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, said it was still too early to be drawing 'strong conclusions' about the suggested increased mortality rate.

He said he was ‘quite surprised’ by the announcement and recommended waiting ‘a week or two more... before we draw really strong conclusions’.

Really, got a source for that wisdom? Never mind the consequences of the illness in many.

Maybe have a read of this, pretty horrid

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...-at-their-door

Many sources for the age related age deaths.......
https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....d6154a6afa.png
And never was implying that any death or consequences from Covid were acceptable!

I'm pretty sure that death is guaranteed? Regardless of whether coronavirus is involved. I'm also pretty sure that older and immuno compromised people are at higher risk to a whole range of infections when there are co-morbidities, or have people forgotten that?

Or as Twain said "lies, damned lies and statistics :}

Foxxster,

BoJo has previously been accused of not taking strong enough measures, now he's accused of over-reacting to a potential escalation event; Damned if he does, damned if he doesn't.

Noted that you've cherry picked statements from 'Experts', only 3 months ago 2 SAGE models were acknowledged as being grossly over estimated.

By all means ignore everything in the UK - Except the death rate, we're the 6th highest death rate globally and barring a miracle will hit 100k deaths today, the death rate has been increasing, some of it down to Xmas/New year get togethers admittedly but we're at a point where being over-cautious might just save a few lives.

To go back to the original post, there is no way Europe will be opening up before Easter.

Mortality data coming out of the UK as of the end of 2020: 80,830 registered deaths with Covid-19 in the UK.
Under 10 years: 4 deaths
Under 20 years: 20 deaths - 0.02% of all deaths
Under 30 years: 124 deaths - 0.15%
Under 40 years: 436 deaths - 0.54%
Under 50 years: 1,499 deaths - 1.85%
Under 60 years: 4,969 deaths - 6.15%
Under 70 years: 12,806 deaths - 15.84%
Under 80 years: 31,505 deaths - 38.98%
Under 90 years: 63,426 deaths - 78.47%
Over 90 years: 17,404 deaths - 21.53%

Clearly it is astonishingly small for someone under the age of 30 to die from this disease and with vaccination, we hope within the next month 85% of deaths will be prevented. That said, one of the real concerns of recent weeks is the number of 30-50 years olds currently admitted to hospital with the newer strains. We simply cannot let our guard down but this virus is also not going to go anywhere anytime soon. If we lockdown forever, we won't be able to pay for the nurses and doctors to take care of us.

I was browsing FR24 yesterday; Emirates have A380's operating a daily service to LHR, MAN and CDG, not sure of the loadings, or if this is because they've run out of B777's

QR8831(77W) departed Doha at 294 tonnes bound for Sydney which is somewhat heartening!

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/30021...after-new-case

BA scam
 

I bought a DFW budapest ticket with BA with a 2 hr stop on London for March. Got an email from BA cancelling my London budapest leg. Was able to get a refund for that. When I tried to get a refund for the DFW London leg = impossible
all I get is a voucher value for a year. BA does not answer the phones anywhere
talk about a scam ......

Someone sneezed then...

Yep - associated with other returnees whilst in isolation.

She caught the South African strain in the Low Countries

And despite all of the effort, the virus still gets in.

Spoiler alert: zero Covid isn’t going to work.

FYI - Sweden has since almost the start had some restrictions "recommendations" they call them. On 14 December they increased them including number of people to max 8 for many things.

On 2/10/2020 Sweden reported 93,615 total cases with 5,893 deaths.
On 25/1/2021 Sweden reported 547,144 total cases with 11,318 deaths.

Seems to me these groups in the UK do a lot of talking and not much acting.

SOPS,

Seems to me these groups in the UK do a lot of talking and not much acting.

Quite right old chap,leave the acting to the la-di-da types while we crack on with getting the first Covid vaccine approved and get a vaccination program underway which is currently at >4M and ramping up.

Do keep up

How is this premonition of “opening up” going so far.

Just the 7m doses given so far.

In all seriousness, there has been a definite change in tone in recent weeks - with numbers going through the roof in December, the media have been encouraged to show the darkest side of this virus as a reminder of the grave consequences. Yes lockdown helps, but the numbers have significant reduced in the last week or two.

Is it all just perhaps a big crock of sh_t?
 

I have some "smoking gun" questions, which nobody seems willing to answer, (or can't properly answer for me), based on proper scientific evidence.

I believe they are rather fundamental and very important questions, and until they are answered, the world should just STOP doing everything it is doing now, and answer them properly first, because until it does, nothing else matters really...and we are all just simply wasting our time over the so-called "virus".

Fundamental Question 1:
Why, on a continent populated almost entirely by poor people, where poverty is rife, most of it...extreme poverty....on a continent...which has little-to-no medical facilities to serve its general populace...on a continent....where it's people have little-to-no medical science appreciation or understanding, and frankly could not care less really, about any sort of "virus" or having to wear a mask, when all they can mostly think of daily, is where their next decent meal is coming from....a continent...such as AFRICA...

After almost ONE FULL YEAR NOW of "virus exposure"....why then, is (at least half) of its population not already dead and decimated by the virus?

If one is to believe everything we have been told by medical science, governments and all the rest, about the virulence, contagiousness, and deadliness of the virus, why then, have we not seen Africa's population being at least reduced by HALF, over the last YEAR now?

Nobody either wants to, or can, properly explain this to me, based on scientific fact.

So then, by implication, we must ask a further fundamental question, if we do not have a proper scientific answer to the first:

Fundamental Question 2:
Are we to believe that somehow black people are different, genetically or biologically, to white people?

If not, then I tend towards the theory that the "virus story" we've all been sold, must in fact then, be nothing but a crock of sh_t...otherwise, all things being "equal", half of Africa's population should be dead already...and we should have seen veritable funeral pires of burning bodies on TV these last few months....but we have not.

You can't have your cake and eat it.

Either black people are different somehow genetically or biologically to white people, or the "virus story" we've all been sold, is a crock of sh_t.

It's really quite simple - take your pick and make your choice - you can only choose one, by logical deduction.

"But people are dying everywhere! Even my friend! Even my grandfather!" I hear you say.

Right...but in case you didn't notice...they always HAVE been....and so will you, one day.

And...all your "claimed deaths" in your recently pronounced statement quoted above, STILL DO NOT...answer my 2 fundamental questions above, ANYWAY, so its a meaningless statement you have claiming all the "deaths" in the above statement, in the bigger scheme of things, is it not?

The figures for COVID deaths just don't justify the extraordinary measures which have been taken around the world, and which have damaged economies and livelihoods around the world.

It does not take a genius to see that.

Until my 2 "fundamental questions" above are properly and scientifically answered and justified, I have no alternative but to believe the entire world has been sold a crock of "sh_t" as a story (the entire "corona virus story"), and has been nothing but sold down the proverbial river...

The question THEN would be, WHY?

And THAT, would probably fill an entire forum of responses...

I don't have the answer to THAT...nor will I even venture to speculate...but one thing is for sure, I am not a "conspiracy theorist"...I just want my basic 2 questions answered please.

Thank you for your time.

How about a common sense answer......

Do people in Africa in general go to the shops, drive around in cars, travel by rail, go on holiday by air, use mass transit systems as much as those in the developed world?

Why would half of Africa be dead? The IFR is less than 1%. Therein lies the problem....

Nice try D9009. Its much much worse than that. Until you've properly visited Africa yourself and witnessed the mass "squatter camps" where these people live, where most basically live on top of each other, with little-to-no sanitary "features" even...in their HUNDREDS of THOUSANDS...(making your quoted train trips and shopping mall expeditions look like school-girl picnics by comparison in terms of transmissibility potential of the virus)...you will not understand I'm afraid.

Not sure what you mean by that? If you mean little-to-no IFR capability, knowledge, or appreciation (IFR being compared to medical science appreciation and respect, by the general populace, who will quicker trust ancestral beliefs, bones thrown on the ground and so-called "witch doctors", or government ministers complaining (literally) on national TV that dead bodies should not be wrapped in plastic bags because then they struggle to breathe (I kid you not!), then it emphasizes my point actually...half of its population should be dead already...at least in theory anyway, if we are to believe everything we have been told by our own medical scientists, governments, etc...

"Problem" is...they are NOT half dead...after nearly a FULL ONE YEAR now of virus exposure, MASS EXPOSURE, due to the living conditions the vast majority live under, in the midst of all the poverty, illiteracy, and general ignorance of medical science by the general populace of Africa, hence my original fundamental questions, earlier.

There is a great void between a fraction of 1% and 50%. Even with poor medical facilities, that void is I'm afraid unrealistic to bridge.

I think you missed a closing bracket. Here, have mine :-)

Actually plenty of simple reasons for lower Covid rates in Africa, less public mobility, fewer aged care homes, a robust community health service that exists in most nations.....
But most importantly a younger average population age so fewer in the older age brackets that are most affected.

ok i’ll try again......cars, trains, aeroplanes, subways, trams, helicopters, ships, all somewhat absent in the mass “squatter camps”

Well 100000 dead in the UK and arguments about hotel quarantine. I am keeping up just fine.


https://www.news.com.au/world/corona...b7b573067fb3bb

So if I understand you correctly, there is "somewhat" no transport in Africa then?

Is that it?

Never really been to Africa, have you?

Here...catch a glimpse :

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....4769d1341c.jpg

barry mate, I can supply the answer, the common sense you'll have to source yourself