Less public mobility? Are you kidding me? See previous post...

Fewer aged care homes? What exactly, does that have to do with the virus not spreading?

Less "robust community health service that exists in most nations"...exactly my point. So in theory then,...we should be seeing WAY WAY more deaths in Africa, no?

"But most importantly a younger average population age so fewer in the older age brackets that are most affected"

You may be onto something there. However, is it really only the old that die then, because of COVID, mainly? Not what the medical scientists, governments etc want us to believe, and are getting quite vocal lately that "everybody is vulnerable, no matter the age". I've even
seen babies with COVID on TV lately...

If it WAS (only) the "old" that are so vulnerable as you suggest ...then why shut down entire economies? Why not just quarantine all the aged and frail...not the entire population?

Nope. Still doesn't answer my fundamental questions, which questions, are flying in the face of the media, "our" so-called "medical scientists", and governments so brutally.

I struggle to believe its not all bollocks, because those questions refuse to be answered properly. Most frustrating.

One of my greatest wishes these days is for the average person on this planet to just start thinking a bit for themselves, and (at least) start asking questions, without fear of being lambasted or labelled a "dissident" of sorts. They are important questions, and they demand decent answers, before we commit to the "program", whatever program that is....

I've pondered a lot over the reason people don't ask enough, or the right questions, generally. Most just seem to be in a coma of sorts, and swallow everything as gospel truth, hook line and sinker, and "run with the program".

Are they just too "thick" (in general)?

Are they just too scared maybe?

OR, (and here's my little theory)….most on this planet find "life" to be hard, in the best of circumstances...and when offered a "way out"....where they can go "hide" and not have to "face" anything in usual day-to-day life...the difficulties of life....a "safe place"...such as a space that a COVID lock down provides...then they run to it and cling to it with both hands...because in that way they can escape...gotten very good also at it...in "supporting", "propping up", and "protecting" their new-found "safe space" which was introduced with COVID and lockdowns...they don't even know what they are doing or have done to themselves already - perhaps this is why not enough proper simple questions are asked, (and properly answered), generally speaking, and decent answers demanded - its almost like everybody went into a coma as far as I am concerned, because they all know that if they had to ask the tough questions, they might just have to give up their new-found "safe space"...has
the average person on this planet just become a "dumb mute" and gotten to behaving like a simple robot now?

Seems to me nearly everybody on this planet is now very well versed on how to die...and few seem to be able to remember anymore how to LIVE.

Except in Africa. Where the average poor person doesn't give a toss...just wants to LIVE.

What was that great line in the movie Shawshank Redemption?

"Get busy living, or get busy dyeing"....

We are killing ourselves, slowly but surely....

Except in Africa it seems.

Please supply it then.

Common sense? Please help me to improve my mind and "common sense" as you call it, and show me where I am lacking any...happy to face and take any sort of "music" you have.

Go ahead, I'm waiting...

Barry,
Forgive me if I'm wrong but I believe you had 2 questions.
1. Why hasn't half of Africa died? I'm afraid the answer to this is you are using either flawed or propaganda skewed mathematics.
2. Are different races genetically different? Yes they are. But don't confuse races that have departed their original habitats with those still there. Over a period of time the race's will change (its called evolution).

Everything else you seem to be venting off on seems to point to a conspiracy (something you strangely suggest you are not a believer of).

Please stop insulting my intelligence, and simply answer the questions. Its no good "shooting the messenger" by implying some kind of "flawed or propaganda skewed mathematics"...or...."here we go again"...."You are a CONSPIRACY THEORY crackpot, see?!!"...which is the usual comment I get from somebody who cannot, or will not properly answer my very innocent, and quite simple questions...when they don't have the proper answers...then obviously the one asking the questions must be some kind of "dissident"...or "conspiracy theorist".

Ridiculous.

C'mon chap.. the facts are before us...no propoganda or "skewing"...anything.

Either, half of Africa's population is dead already, or it is not. Quite clearly, it is not. FACT.

When, all things being equal, if we are to believe everything we have been told by medical scientists and our governments, then they SHOULD BE HALF DEAD, already.

You say black people are different genetically than white people. Is that a known FACT? If it is...it's news to me, what are your sources? I'm keen to learn...

It would, however, go a long way to explaining things and answering my question, admittedly.

I wonder if black people would accept such a fact? Would they perhaps, be offended, if one told them something like "now lookey here fella, I am not simply 'your brother from a different mother - you are different to me, and you are not the same as me'"?

Not sure that would go down too well with a black person ;)

I just want my 2 easy-to-understand simple questions answered.

They still haven't been, conclusively, unless black people really are different to white people...in which case I will have another question, a question such as "how much different? And how exactly, are they different?"...but that would be for another forum.

Barry,
I must humbly apologise as I am not sure you will find the answers you yearn here. But all is not lost, I am confident there are other forums that will provide solace.

A factor to consider is the highest mortality rates for this are in the 60+ age groups. I think the figures for Africa are something like about 50% of the population is under 20. The over 60s are a small percentage of the population.

barryt,

You could choose to believe "everything we have been told by medical scientists and our governments, then they SHOULD BE HALF DEAD"

Which is fine except, there are contradictions within the establishment, fake news if you wish.

You could also add India into the mix, 1.38 billion people, the majority living in (very) crowded cities but with a death rate roughly a seventh of South Africa's, go figure, damned if it makes sense to me.

Average death rate for Covid varies from Yemen with 29% down to 0.0%, this is case rate not per 100,000; so even in the worst case scenario a long way from your half, live long and prosper but beware of self-fulfilling prophets.

Sops,

Appreciate the prompt response, however your premise was that "Seems to me these groups in the UK do a lot of talking and not much acting"

Was the Oxford/Astra Zeneca vaccine talked into existence (in which case we should talk more often) and are we vacciinating >500k daily or just talking about it?

Maybe you'd prefer the Brazilian model where they do talk about it a lot and do f##k all

So one photo of a crowded train in Africa and you’ve figured out that the pandemic is a worldwide conspiracy huh?

Here’s an article written by scientists about why African pandemic numbers differ from the West. Read it, or don’t, but argue from a point of evidence:

COVID-19: examining theories for Africa’s low death rates

Then why are you wasting your time on a pilot’s bulletin board then?

Exactly. Simple stats here: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...e_global310px/

Proportion of population of Europe aged over 60: 26% - median age 43
Proportion of population of Africa aged over 60: 6% - median age 20

There are other reasons, but that's surely the main one.

Lies, damned lies and statistics.

Any number of factors can be brought in to consideration, average age in Africa is younger so more likely to survive but health care is of a lower standard so more likely to die.
More older people in Europe with chronic health conditions so more likely to die but better health care so less likely to die than a similar case in an African village.
Europe has good reporting and monitoring so the figures look worse than Africa which could actually be worse but we don't have accurate information.

Back in the 1990s when AIDS was the scourge in Africa, projecting the figures indicated that there wouldn't be enough people to bury the bodies of those who were dying in such overwhelming numbers. Economies would collapse as there wouldn't be enough workers left to keep things running.

Covid will simply run free in developing countries until an effective level of vaccination is reached. Poverty and overcrowding mean lockdowns and social distancing won't work. A rich country can tell its citizens to stay home for 2 weeks and pay an allowance for the unemployed to buy food with. A day labourer living in an African shanty town with neighbours a few feet away, poor sanitation, a family to support and no income won't be able to stay home as part of a mass lockdown to break the virus.

Infection fatality rate

You're probably right. But since I don't belong to any other forums, and have belonged to this one for years, nay...decades actually, and since I am an aviator myself, I prefer to bounce off other like-minded folks (who tend to have more "intelligence" than most...well mostly, anyway), and especially since this whole COVID thing has impacted the aviation industry more so than probably any other industry...

If any industry should be asking my fundamental questions and trying to get decent answers, it must be the aviation industry...which has all but been decimated by what I now call... "pork pies"...around the entire COVID issue, being told and sold, by all-and-sundry, the world over...

Which is why I posted on this forum.

No "fake news" here. I am basing my questions around what the world has been "fed" from mainstream media outlets...such as Sky News...CNN...Fox News etc etc...although we all know we should not trust any of them, including the various medical professionals they interview and so on...

And yet, the world believes everything coming out of the TV and from the mouths of government ministers on the same news channels...nothing "fake" about that...

And nobody seems to challenge any of them with (say) my 2 fundamental questions, so we can get some proper answers. Backed up by scientific fact, as to why, Africa is not half-dead yet, after a full year of virus exposure in the most promotional of circumstances, for the virus to spread...

Same goes for India, and I'm glad you mentioned that. The "story" is the same, and my 2 initial fundamental questions apply equally I think to India, as they do to Africa.

All things being equal, both populations should, (in theory at least), if we are to believe everything we have been told about how dangerous the virus is, be half dead already...or, at the very least, a lot more dead, than they are currently, after 1 year now.

But they are not.

Which is what is leaving the "smoking gun" questions, really.

It seems there is an argument toward "well Africa does not have many old people, most of the population is young and resilient, therefore hardly any of them are dieing"...(and I read the quoted article btw in an earlier post)

3 problems with that :
1.The media, governments around the world, medical scientists are currently contradicting that theory vehemently right now, wherever they can, live TV, wherever...and would have us believe otherwise, and are currently shouting the mantra "We are ALL susceptible! Regardless of age...lookey here at this young baby...just 2 months old...got COVID"...[as they hold up the baby to the camera]...leaving us with the distinct impression with their solemn tone of words that said baby will likely be dead within next 48 hours.

2. Does India also have a relatively low percentage of the "older generation"? Do they also only have mostly young people living in India, compared to older people, just like what is being claimed about Africa? I don't think so, but I could be wrong.

3. If it is true that age IS the main factor why half of Africa isn't dead yet...then why are we shutting down the whole world's population, stopping kids from going to school and so on? Why not just protect the aged and quarantine them only, in lock downs and so on? After all, we now (apparently) have the "proof" from Africa's track-record after one year, that really, it is only the aged which are at risk. (Maybe because the aged are the ones holding most of the purse strings and influence in most countries...and we can't discriminate against them only now, can we, so better shut the whole bloody lot down? (Just asking - another dumb theory perhaps)

And let's face it, the aged have always been more vulnerable, anyway, to anything and everything, including straight-up plan-old-vanilla pneumonia...pre COVID, so what really changed in terms of all that, when COVID came along? Of course, nowadays just about any aged person who dies, from whatever cause...well...they died from COVID, obviously.

Pathetic in the extreme (try and find the figures in your country of how many aged died from anything other than COVID or natural causes, and good luck with THAT, because it seems nobody cares about the true causes anymore...its all just "COVID")

You're damned right it doesn't make sense.

Somebody...is telling pork pies...all over the place...that much, has become patently obvious.

In the beginning of the pandemic, I was happy to "buy into" everything we have been told, mask up, lock down, etc, because hell, I really didn't know any better and had no choice really...better not to take risks, at that stage.

But now, after nearly a full YEAR of the virus everywhere, its become more and more obvious to me each day...that somebody has been telling massive pork pies all along...and Im not even an expert...I just have 2 simple questions I want answered, and, where one would
typically expect the medical professionals or governments to easily answer said questions...they simply never do, and just skirt around the issue...like they are tremendously "unpopular" or "difficult" questions to answer....which doesn't help, and the questions will remain
until proper answers are forthcoming, failing which, any reasonable thinking person must concur that:

Somebody, has been telling massive pork pies, for nearly a year now...and we may as well all take our masks off.

Would you like me to provide you with more photos then? Don't you believe me when I tell you Africans easily move around en-masse...maybe not on aircraft the way you and I do...but they do get around, en masse, a lot, I can assure you!

Why am I posting on this forum? See a previous post a few back...I answered that one.

The scientific link you post doesn't hold much water Im afraid and still doesn't answer my original fundamental questions, with properly backed-up scientific fact, I'm afraid...all just conjecture and speculation at the end of the day...and falls shallow anyway...see my previous post on this one...

Barryt...Others have given you the answers. Namely, the virus only kills 1 or 2% of the people that it infects, and those people are mostly older than 60. So even if everyone in Africa was already infected, you would see at most a 0.5% increase in deaths given the age demographics.

Also, kindly note that some African countries are simply not able to provide accurate case counts for all of the social, economic and cultural reasons that have already been mentioned. And then there’s the political angle...Tanzania for example simply stopped reporting cases back in May.

Ah Barry,
At last something we can agree on. In my opinion I think a path could have been navigated that didn't decimate so many professions putting pressure on many other non-Covid area's. But I am biased I guess and won't have to take responsibility for the final outcome.

My issue with your discussion is I find your question's lack credibility. Firstly, even with the worst leftest MSM, I have seen nothing that would indicate they are implying a loss of 50% of the lives anywhere in the world, no matter how dire the living conditions are.

I also don't know why you think the Africans would be aggrieved with my understanding that the world has subtle differing variations in genetic makeup due to locality (over a prolonged period). Is there a level of xenophobia in that assumption?

Huh? I just posted a link written by an Oxford medical Professor and an African Health Science expert. What gravitas do you, mere Pprune poster, have to dismiss their article as "not holding much water"?
If you're going to insist those people are either idiots or liars better provide some properly sourced FACTS of your own. Can you post a link please that in some way backs up your claim of "Somebody...is telling pork pies...all over the place...that much, has become patently obvious."?

This is precisely what I have mentioned before...in terms of "medical professionals".

Oxford medical professor? Who cares? Does this now make him the world's expert on COVID and the number of deaths in Africa, merely because he carries the title "professor"?

Must be a rather sh_t one, either way, because he never answered my questions properly, and backed it up with scientifically proven fact, not once, in that article...just sayin'

Dismiss their article? Standby and watch my friend...

Now I need facts?

No actually, I don't, beyond what is obvious to anybody - all I have asked is 2 fundamental questions, based on very obvious facts to anybody who barely has to "look",... to establish their veracity:

FACT 1 : Its been nearly a FULL YEAR now, that Africa and its population has been exposed to the virus
FACT 2 : African populations generally live in squalor and on top of each other - with little-to-no appreciation of medical science, nor care-a-less, irrespective of age - a veritable breeding ground for the virus, under the circumstances
FACT 3 : The African population has not been decimated, as would normally have been expected to have happen, having ignored all the "medical science" largely, 50% or otherwise, (or at the very least, at lot more dead, than currently, after a full year), if we are to believe "professors", "government ministers" and other (apparent) "gurus" in the medical fraternity
FACT 4 : African populations remain largely in tact, after a full year, in contradiction to all the "facts" espoused by "professors" and whoever else who claim to be "gurus" - the facts on the ground, do not bear witness to their BS, sadly for them, your professor included, including (basically speaking), that "we're all gonna DIE ASAP, if we fail to wear masks, don't stop touching the groceries on the shelves in the stores, and if we don't stop hugging each other"

So yes, somebody is telling pork pies, for sure, including your professor - perhaps he should have chosen a different university - the University of Common Sense, for example? Not sure.

Any and all questions in life, are valid. Or am I missing something?

50% is just a number I chose really...the point is...Africa should be a lot more dead, than it is currently, for the reasons in my previous post.

But it isn't.

And that is the problem.

Ha ha...now I am sorry, you have made me laugh with that one.

You think?

Come try live in Africa and go around with that attitude, and you will see what I mean...very quickly.

Xenophophia? You damn right...you should see how the black on black violence occurs in Africa...because of different cultures...never mind a simple differing skin color...now imagine there was a different skin color as well...you get the picture...

Hell, never mind Africa...try going around in the States with that attitude in your previous statement...you quickly end up with "Black Lives Matter"...or haven't you been paying attention? ;)

How long would you like to carry on living? Just asking... ;)

You haven't read my post. I said your questions weren't CREDIBLE. You have asked a question as to why a certain percentage has not been achieved (a percentage you freely admit you have CHOSEN), a number which was so vastly contradictory to any form of statistical distribution of the facts being collated by scientist's (you know, they guys that are telling you porky pies), yet it is a credible question? I'm sorry to say your argument on that one is not credible (as I said before if you could just listen at all).

What the hell are you talking about man (or woman). you need to stop posting on forums when you're drinking. My opinion on my understanding of genetics in the human race is not an attitude. Again you perhaps need to listen (or read) to what people are really saying. But I hazard a guess you are so defensive that you are putting context into things which is really not there.

So... the Chinese, American, Russian, UK and European Union leaders and their respective public health authorities, along with the UN and the Murdoch Press and Guardian and most media outlets and health care workers world-wide have colluded together to make everyone believe there is a pandemic when in fact there isn't, it is all a beat up. The hospital staff are working at pretending their ICUs are overflowing and the people providing freezers for temporary mobile mortuaries are in on it too. The discipline not to leak it is a scam, especially from all the doctors and nurses who are spreading false stories of what is happening in their hospitals is a testament to their evil commitment to this conspiracy. Great acting by Boris Johnson when in hospital. However this may all be exposed by a number of African countries who have nobly refused to go along with the conspiracy. I am expecting the rest of the world cabal will soon start pressuring these countries soon and given the power of the new world order they will have to cave.

Yep. Sounds reasonable to me.


Nice troll :) Would make a good movie though. :)

Did we really land on the moon Barry?

Dr Dre gives you the evidence you yearned for, and you dismiss it as rubbish.

Go put your tin foil hat on and **** off. Off you go

If a tree falls in the forest and no one is there to hear it, does it make a sound?

Or if someone dies of COVID-19 but it’s not reported does it really exist? 🧐

Or if someone gets hit by a bus within 28 days of a positive Covid test is that another Covid statistic? Answer - Yes, in the UK

Any and all question are valid? better a thousand silly questions than one stupid mistake.
However, Barry you continue to make mistakes so maybe you should stop questioning and call it damage limitation.

If a Man speaks in a Forest and there is no Woman to hear him, is he still wrong?

Answers on a postcard.

"It's all rather confusing really"
Neddy Seagoon

A lot of nonsense written on this thread Africa, along with many other developing areas has :-

1 A young population. 2 A small over 65 population. 3 A basic health care system, there are very few with complex health issues that are vulnerable to Covid 19, many cannot afford the medication, nor is there a high incidence of diabetes. Also probably many deaths are recorded as malaria or one of the other tropical diseases that are widespread for political reasons.

But back to "Much of the World reopening in March".

Well, we're 4 weeks out from March and much of the world is shutting down as we speak largely due to the new variants.

Many countries in EU banning flights from UAE due to soaring rates there and the SA strain (even though UAE have vaccinated 3 million of their 9 million population).

France has banned all non EU flights.
Israel banned all pax flights full stop.
etc.

And many many more countries are enforcing quarantine, if not for all travellers then for those who have visited variant hot spot countries.

It's going to get worse before it gets better.

Unfortunately I do believe you are right.

Jetstar still seem to think otherwise.

Is a Singapore travel bubble in the pipeline?


https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....bd8941455.jpeg

Correct, In addition UK is investigating adopting Australia's 14 day hotel quarantine regime for arriving travelers. There remains ZERO chance that international travel will reopen with any assuredness before September or October at the earliest. There is no justification for QF to be selling any international fares before 30/9 at the earliest (though realistically 1/1/22 is more appropriate) and the ACCC should be reminding them firmly that doing so is in breach of the TPA and exposes them to significant fines.

I'm not so negative that there can't be a surge of travel by mid year. IATA are developing a digital travel pass that "proves" travellers' vaccination status. I think in the next few months that borders will gradually open in some countries to those travellers who have been vaccinated and can show the IATA pass.
One more mutation or final proof that the vaccination does not stop you being infectious and transmissible will push that timeline back...

I think the issue at this stage though Stally, is the vaccine doesn’t stop you from carrying the virus. Hence you can still take it into the countries.

Agreed, hence my last sentence. The countries that will be first to open will be ones that have their population largely vaccinated (eg UAE that is currently at 30% of its population, and doing 100K vaccinations a day - extrapolating should have the whole done by the end of March. It is the SinoVac though)

Early indication is that it is significantly reduced though.

You've been on Pprune for decades and you're so confident about your dumbarse conspiracy theory you're too embarrassed to log in under your usual self?

The industry isn't asking YOUR fundamental questions because they already have the answers.

Before you go flying do you pay the Voodoo doctor to say a spell for your wellbeing?

I hope you've had a vasectomy.

No travel bubble afaik. I think they're just they're being prepared in case things open up faster than expected, or to gauge how willing people will be to travel when there may still be some virus apprehension. If the flight is canceled do you get a refund or another bs travel voucher? They don't lose either way if that's the case.

There will probably be some limited travel allowed around the middle of the year with the following conditions:

1. Traveller is vaccinated.
2. Traveller has negative COVID test.
3. Travel is between countries with a substantial proportion of their populations vaccinated.
4. Traveller has COVID insurance.

If these conditions are met then the risk factor should be acceptable. Six months isn't unrealistic for developed countries to achieve a reasonable level of vaccination and they will be the first to open up to each other, COVID cases will still occur but in manageable numbers which can be contained and treated.

A more widespread opening will likely take until the end of the year as a greater level of vaccination is achieved and results can be evaluated.

When entire capital cities are locked-down for case numbers in the single digits, do you really think they'll allow overseas arrivals without at least 14 days quarantine and thus little more than the current limited numbers until such time as they can be near certain there'll be no chance of another outbreak?

See point 3, once most of the population has been vaccinated the risk factor should be acceptable as a vaccinated traveller with a negative test result is very unlikely to have the disease. If he does, and the vaccination rate in the country he visits is high, then he is unlikely to pass it on.

After being vaccinated, anyone who catches COVID is unlikely to get very sick. A few cases here and there is something we’re going to have to live with for the foreseeable future but mass waves and hospitalisations with hundreds of deaths per day should be coming to an end.

Some countries such as Thailand are highly dependent on foreign visitors and need to open up soon, Australia less so but it can’t stay isolated forever.