It's been shown that COVID-19 continues to exist on surfaces for many days (e.g., stainless steel over 14 days IIRC - see https://blog.csiro.au/covid19-virus-surfaces/) under normal climatic conditions, so pax will (re-)introduce COVID via their person and belongings regardless of their own infection and vax status. I do not want this to be the case, but it probably means that for international travel to be opened up, at least without quarrie at one or both ends, we will need a very high % vaxxed at origins, destinations and anywhere significant in between.

I think the sensible money is on anything being possible when it comes to COVID. Let’s be honest here, we have had this virus being closely studied for over a year now and it still is impossible to control or contain it despite measures not seen maybe ever before in most countries.

People who have been vaccinated are still getting the virus, I believe I even read some of which have died. Numerous mutations to the virus that are looking to be resistant to the vaccines. Border safety measures that seem to fail regularly...the list goes on.

I think the smart money is on aviation, travel and any form of normality being severely suppressed for a lot longer yet.

For some perspective:

Israeli data shows an infection rate in their vaccinated population less than 1/200th of their unvaccinated population. Only 16 people being treated in hospital had received both doses, an incredibly low figure:
Israel Covid vaccine data shows extremely low rate of infections

As far as mutations go vaccines are providing protection against hospitalisation and death with the new mutations. They are NOT vaccine resistant.

Border safety measures can be improved in the short term yes, but lesser need for total elimination once the levels of immunisation in the country rise.

Low probability but multiplied by a large number of people equals near-certainty (say one per month). With the current national intolerance for any cases, there would need to be low occurrence at the origin and/or high vax rate at the destination. I am not advocating it should be like this, but I am expecting that surface-based transmission is not being discounted.

Remember also the NZ outbreak mid-winter -- unless they have revised their view of that since, the inbound vector was believed to be refrigerated freight. Also that there are gangs of people in our cities walking around spraying and polishing traffic signal buttons, road signs, seats etc etc. Yes that might be make-work but again also indicates where governments' thinking is at.

COVID is something we are going to have to live with, zero cases isn’t a realistic expectation. Once an adequate percentage of the population is vaccinated the world can start opening up again. Initially it will be between countries with high vaccination rates, some countries will still be off limits for the immediate future.

There will be small outbreaks but they will be controllable and citywide lockdowns won’t be necessary. Some people will get sick, some will get very sick and some will die but the numbers involved will be manageable.

We could almost eliminate road deaths by banning motorised vehicles or imposing a 20mph speed limit but we don’t because the economic effect would be too great, so we live with car accidents and road trauma. We manage the problem with rules and regulations which are enforced by the police, and a health system which treats the injured. Hospitals aren’t overwhelmed by road accident victims and soon, COVID will be the same.

Krismiler, all that is great in theory but unfortunately, as mentioned earlier, Australia's political 'leaders' have been and probably will be incredibly over-cautious as they have demonstrated to date. I'd be surprised if they suddenly change their outlook if there's even a modicum of a chance that there may be a case from any source. W.A. has one case that led to a 5 day lockdown. Whether that decision is correct or otherwise, that is the precedent that has been set. Politicians love precedents - especially if they can convince the public that it was a correct call.

The response is based on health advice for a virus spread amongst a non immunised population. Once the vaccine has been rolled out the advice will change. It's not too hard to comprehend:

Coronavirus: few vaccines prevent infection – here’s why that’s not a problem

Israel's vaccination rollout shows stunningly successful results

Some of the earliest figures from a mass vaccination programhas shown a huge drop in coronavirus cases.
Israel has had by far the most successful COVID-19 vaccine rollout, with 56 Pfizer doses administered for every 100 people in the country.
And already a sharp drop has been recorded in the number of people falling ill.

Of the 163,000 Israelis vaccinated by the Maccabi Healthcare Services, just 31 have contracted coronavirus.
"This is very, very good news," vaccine statistician Anat Ekka Zohar told the Times of Israel.
"It is the first study in the world that looks at such a large number of fully vaccinated patients."

The Israel data shows the Pfizer vaccine has an efficacy rate of 92 per cent.
But what is perhaps even more encouraging is how those vaccinated who contract coronavirus nevertheless respond.
"None have been hospitalised and they have very, very light symptoms," Dr Ekka Zohar said.
"We are talking about headache and a mild feeling of sickness, and they are almost completely without fever. It's really a very light illness."

edit* Channel 9 news

And that's the whole point of the vaccine, not to completely eradicate a virus, but to turn it into a common cold or flu. Once that happens travel and lockdown restrictions don't need to be enacted.

Just get the jab please.

The Israeli data is highly encouraging and importantly, is believable. Unlike certain countries they have no reason to cover up case numbers or exaggerate the effectiveness of a domestically produced vaccine.

Australia will definitely trail the rest of the world in opening up, but with news like this, a firm basis to plan on is now available. A schedule based on “as long as this doesn’t happen” can now be tentatively worked out for easing restrictions.

you mean like the statistical majority that contract Corona virus? Mild flu like symptoms?

Yes, but unlike the statistical 4% (in Oz) who die from it. Most definitely unlike statistical flu outcomes.

sorry where did I make comparisons to influenza fatality rates?

I have been trying to find an ACCURATE fatality rate for Australia. Where did you get 4%?

28,830 cases / 909 deaths.

OK ....3.1%
The 4% was a rough (mis)calculation.

Obviously, no allowance for asymptomatic cases.

Okay thanks. I found this page...https://www.worldometers.info/corona...try/australia/
So the REAL rate will be a great deal lower than 3.1% given that is simply the ratio of those who tested positive to those who died.
My impression is that it is going to be not much higher than an influenza death rate.

But that's just a guess. Because there are no statistics for asymptomatic cases. Only "impressions".
Whereas for inluenza the 5 year average for Australia is 0.34%. That is deaths per confirmed influenza diagnosis.
If you expand THAT out to include all of the influenza cases that were relatively mild and never reported to any health authority then I think you'd find the "apples with apples" death rate to weigh strongly in favour of influenza.

And, hey, has anyone got any figures for asymptomatic influenza? Or are we all just presuming that it's only Covid that has asymptomatic cases.
John Hopkins School of Public Health says "As many as 50% of infections with normal seasonal flu may be asymptomatic".

They are good points you raise. Makes it difficult to plan. Hence one case in Perth has caused two million people to be locked down. Crazy.

One KNOWN case in Perth. But considering the bigger picture, the potential for many more is considerable.
If he's the only one then I think everyone will be amazed.

In the period from when he became infectious until he went into quarantine he visited a truly impressive list of public venues covering a broad expanse of the metropolitan area.

I have had several Medicos and Nurses quietly say to me much the same. And some of those consider various Goverments reactions to be way over the top!

But in Australia it is very different, 0.34% vs 3.1% for confirmed cases.
And if you want to factor in unconfirmed & asymptomatic cases then you need to do it for both.

When was the last time that you can remember 700+ influenza deaths in Victoria over an eight week period while at the same time everyone was in lockdown?

This discussion of death rates also ignores other long-term effects, which sound a lot nastier for Covid than the flu.

In 2019 it was estimated that there were 29 000 people with HIV in Australia with new infections running at around 800 per year. Back in the 1980s, AIDS was a virtual death sentence, now it’s under control. We learnt to live with it and treatments were developed.

COVID will be the same and we’ll be looking at annual vaccinations, at least for the next few years. Travel passes will be needed to fly internationally, possibly with some degree of tracking. Social distancing will be the new normal, hygiene levels will be increased and contactless will be the way of doing things as far as possible.

I get my second jab this weekend and whilst I will still have regular testing it will be less frequent. I fully expect to get vaccinated again in 12 months with the vaccine optimised for the new strains that emerged since my last dose.

Around the middle of the year, enough people will have been inoculated in developed countries for there to be a semblance of normality and an easing of restrictions.

This has to be debunked every couple of weeks.

UK average yearly flu deaths 600-13000
UK Covid deaths in 11 months 108,000

France average yearly flu deaths 10,000-15,000
France Covid deaths in 11.5 months 77,000

US average yearly flu deaths 12,000-51,000
US Covid deaths in 11.5 months 457,000

All that information is readily available.

Covid deaths...how are they defined? If I have terminal cancer and die WITH Covid is that a Covid death? Lots of grey wiggly areas there.

When was the last time it was reported? That is how you would know and remember it.

How often are suicide figures reported in Australia? How often are road deaths reported? Which number is bigger?

Spoiler alert: Road deaths for Australia 2020 just under 1100. Suicide deaths Australia 2020: 3300

Do you honestly think that 700 influenza deaths in a couple of months would go unreported?

And you think that the bulk of the 700 were all at deaths door and would have died within days anyway?
If your argument relies on grey wiggly area then I'll let you have a few sq cms.
Lots? Definitely not.

Not really. WHO classifications on what constitutes a Covid death:

INTERNATIONAL GUIDELINES FOR CERTIFICATION AND CLASSIFICATION (CODING) OF COVID-19 AS CAUSE OF DEATH

Debunking the conspiracies that if you test positive for Covid and then die in a car crash your death will be recorded as a Covid death. If you have terminal cancer and die with Covid? Was it Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome or Pneumonia bought on by Covid that contributed to your death? Then yes Covid will be listed as an underlying factor. If not then it won't.

C'mon you need to start looking up facts yourself and not ask questions that hint at baseless conspiracies. Rational answers are all out there if you bother to look.

Dr Dre,

Extract from the document you attached

"COVID-19 should be recorded on the medical certificate of cause of death for ALL decedents where the disease caused, or is assumed to have caused, or contributed to death."
Covid deaths are being over reported as a result of this - during the height of the first wave, any death with any COVID symptoms had the head sealed, body bagged and removed for interment, NO autopsy.

My better half is a 26 year paramedic in the London Ambulance service and is not prone to hyperbole.

I think you’ve lost Icarus

Please don't go "guessing" just to justify your argument. Its disingenuous to guess when you are debating. All the scientific modelling I've seen by puts the IFR towards 1%. That makes your guess 400% WRONG. Its guesses like that which end up on social media (you know, the place where everybody can be an scientist) and before you know it it becomes a Karen/Ken fact. Confirmed cases are open to too many inconsistencies.

Actually most evidence points to the UK undercounting their death toll:

Using death certificates is the more comprehensive and reliable measure of the impact of Covid-19. This is because it counts every single death that has involved coronavirus in the UK. It is a more accurate indicator of what might have led to someone’s death, rather than a rule based simply on the number of days since a positive test. By contrast, the government’s method of only counting deaths with 28 days of a positive test is less comprehensive.

It does not include people who died more than 28 days after testing positive - even if those people spent that entire period in hospital and had Covid-19 marked on their death certificate. It also excludes anyone who did not have a positive Covid-19 test. Because of this, it undercounts the number of Covid-19 deaths that occurred during the first months of the pandemic, when only a minority of people were being tested.
Why the UK’s Covid death toll has passed 100,000 a second time

No I am keeping up but I have an open mind. Except when it comes to this lock down in Perth for ONE case. I was expecting by Tuesday there may be 20-30 cases but even today no extra cases. The damage and stress from locking people down is unnecessary. I feel it is a massive over reaction. How about just explain the facts to people and advise them to stay home and avoid contact?

As I said above, the media just love reporting road deaths, they are all over it. Suicide deaths are three times as many. Silence. Which is the bigger problem? Accidents due to fatigue and stupidity or people choosing to take their own life. I know my thoughts. Now apply that media bias philosophy to Covid coverage.

Well.....most interesting.:hmm:

But Dr Dre; Does not your quote simply prove that the first abovementioned quote is true? Despite that there have may been other diseases that each victim may have been suffering from, that if they had subsequently contracted Covid 19, then that was their 'sole' cause of Death?

Thanks for your advice about guessing. It is most assuredly correct.
However I was not referring to my argument,

I was referring to Icarus who said "My impression is that it is going to be not much higher than an influenza death rate."
You see, his impression is just a guess.

Eh???? And modeling is so much more accurate?

No one has ever suggested a death certificate can only have one cause of death. Might want to re read that. Plus the WHO advice isn't necessarily taken up by every single member state. There'll be minor differences in reporting of mortality. I'm not going to go through 200 different reporting systems to decide what is most accurate. None of this really detracts from the fact Covid is far deadlier than a seasonal influenza.

COVID Far More Lethal Than Flu, Data Shows

As further proof this isn't a "bad flu season" check out the video in this link:

Depends on what evidence you want to quote and choose to believe.

No, no way, can't be so? Someone on the frontline with a rationale view based on evidence?

FACT: There are financial incentives to hospitals in some countries for reported covid deaths.

Is that not an argument? You disagreed with Icarus but chose to use a 'guessed statistical percentage' in order to portray your side of the case?

And you need to question that scientific modelling is no more accurate than your over-inflated and quite misleading percentage? Is that what you are really thinking? If so, this is the big problem with social media and forums. We don't actually need anybody in the the science arena anymore. Sack all the experts and obtain our facts from self appointed forum experts.