Kind of hilarious -- a pilot (I guess) who doesn't understand chance events, and decides to miscalculate a ratio by about 10^4 ---.Vic is 20K cases from around 6M ppl, that's better than one in a thousand. Anyway:

Person 1 was an early bird, got on the wrong side of the Austrian barman super-spreader. Look it up.
Person 2, stood down person from aviation, caught it via community transmission before than main Vic lockdown.
Person 3 is Mrs Person 2

It's not rare here. It has a pretty good strike rate for messing up 45-somethings and upwards, from what I can tell.
On the positive side, Person 2's antibodies are still rocking a few months later, which is a good sign for vaxxes.

Yes, I didn't bother too much with the maths and did leave a few zeros off as a result. My error, but that's not the point.
In fact, you've almost made my point for me. Your situation is a highly unusual chance event, just like your other observations about it.
I knew someone who literally died in their 20s from influenza, but I understand that it was just incredibly unlucky, just like someone mid 40s actually suffering worse than a common cold from this thing.

So you have scientific evidence to support your claim?

meh. What’s a few zeros between friends.

And for all of you that think it’s just like the flu .. and you won’t lose your medical if you get it.. you may lose something worse !!


https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/he...a7125de493f29e

At least that should guarantee the anti-vaxers won’t be able to reproduce

There's no assistance from me for your argument, I will recap. Back at post #2283 you demonstrated ignorance of the reality of COVID-19 prevalence in Victoria by a factor of 10,000. You then proceeded to the infer that I had fabricated or embellished a story: "... sprouting uninformed anecdotal bull****...".

Your point, indicated by "... (someone would be) incredibly unlucky, just like someone mid 40s actually suffering worse than a common cold from this thing ...", is supported by evidence or professional opinion about COVID-19 from what source? Or personal belief based on observing the world around you, or even wishing it a certain way?

You stated anyone suggesting the virus is inconsequential is "sprouting uninformed bull****" and gave anecdotal evidence that a few neighbours have it thus it's dangerous to those in their 40s.
I suggested that itself is "sprouting uninformed anecdotal bull****" because the data itself shows 99.4% of people with the virus in that age group are either asymptomatic or have only mild symptoms. Your extremely unlucky situation to have so many people at that age with severe symptoms in such a close proximity does not reflect the norm with this virus. That is the only point I was trying to raise.

no jab....no job....it’s the policy coming to an airline near you. There is no escape....

So if you inoculate 10,000 staff, every one of those 10,000 staff have all different immune responses and different metabolisms.
I'II take the jab no problem as long as you can guarantee it won't cause havoc with your pancreas, liver, autonomic nervous system
in 5 years time. Or have they tested all that.
Note all these med companies haven't explained what contents are in the vile.
Usually if you eat something you would like to know what's in the contents as described on the packet.
Doesn't matter about your health in 5 years time, get those planes flying.
You can change me to a pro vaccine any day, if you can get rid of the neurotoxins associated with them.

Precisely. I know 9 people
who had COVID-19. The worst symptom for 1 of them was a mild temp for a day. The rest suffered from a runny nose, or lack of taste and smell for a week or two.

Doesn’t mean COVID-19 is harmless to everyone - but for over 99% it’s barley an issue.

A lot of people have trouble with statistics....

I think you might be the one who has a problem with statistics.

UK death rate is 3.6%
USA death rate is 1.9%

I think it’s safe to say that well over 1% of people who catch COVID have a rather large issue (i.e. they dead). Feel free to educate yourself at the following link,

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

I think it’s also safe to say, well over 1% of people have serious consequences, the US had over 100,000 people in intensive care on 2 Dec.

I can't find my calculator, but can you remind me what 1% of Australia's population would be?

And when the hospitals ICU wards are full, and perfectly healthy you have a stroke / heart attack / car crash injury where do you go? The local medical centre?

I can do that in my head. Based on 25627453 it is 25627
If we had a rate that Belgium has we would be looking at 38636 deaths
Belgium was being held up as a country that was doing good earlier in the year.

What happened??

This data is skewed in that there is a large number of people with the virus who don't get tested. What is clear, is that the more testing that gets done, the more the fatality rate gets reduced. Again, I'm not anti-vax, I will take the vaccine, same as I take the flu vaccine. But fat load of good that's done eliminating the flu.

Well, after what I have seen the last two days in Sydney. Domestic appears to be going pretty hard JQ check in packed, central food court and following to JQ side shoulder to shoulder good to see all the shops open again.

Because that’s not what it’s purpose is, read these:

It's incorrect to say flu vaccines don't work

Fact check: Flu vaccine hasn't eradicated the flu, but it has lessened the burden of the virus

Touché dr dre. I did exactly what I hate others doing, and tried to make a point using an irrelevant comparison. My apologies. However, having had both covid and the flu, I still feel that all of our opinions on how this thing has been handled are valid because they come from our individual experiences. I understand that certain people feel the lockdowns should be stricter. I understand people are scared, and I can empathise. I also realise that some people are scared of dying, and others are scared of not living. I usually spend my off time jumping out of planes, or surfing. I haven't done either of those things since March. To me, spending a year of my youth hiding from a virus that I've already had; of course I will have a different opinion to someone more vulnerable or risk-averse. I've lost my career, my car, and haven't seen my girlfriend since February due to this. I'm scraping by (got my first big job in Jan, retrenched in March). I'm not looking for sympathy here, just explaining why some people may have differing opinions. I feel like I've done my part (except contracting covid:ugh: but I isolated strictly then). If this vaccine doesn't work, is this us for good? Where do we draw the line on things that have risk? Like what is the exact percentage? Do we ban cars, alcohol, playing rugby? We seem to have completely rejected the fact that we're all going to die at some stage. And for those that are scared, and have already made their money, why can't they just continue doing what they've been doing? Why do the rest of us have to isolate also? Anyways, way off topic sorry, I should be doing something more productive on a Monday. Anyone need to be flown anywhere?:{

But the vaccine does work, with up to 95% effectiveness. It may end up becoming a periodic jab to maintain effectiveness, and if 70% of the population is immunised then the incidence of illness in the community should reduce to manageable levels. If the flat-earth subset of populations continue to embrace stupid behaviours then we will continue to see isolated pockets of disease, but they should in theory be easily contained.

Disclaimer: no graduate degree in this or any related field.

By stupid behaviours, is that like going out? Or something more specific? I'm not being facetious, genuinely curious what we will deem to be reckless. Imagine no more partying or traveling or seeing mates.