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-   -   MERGED: Alan's still not happy...... (https://www.pprune.org/australia-new-zealand-pacific/528014-merged-alans-still-not-happy.html)

waren9 6th Dec 2013 00:02


That is a good point. NZ has a tiny population also making money more of a challenge. Yet they manage.
indeed. about the pop. of vic another 1200nm further away, and all with a currency worth even less

BNEA320 6th Dec 2013 00:02

rot for QF dom started 13SEP01
 
with AN demise QF grew fat & lazy. VA is killing QF.

Ollie Onion 6th Dec 2013 00:02

I have always had my money on the almost complete shutdown of 'QANTAS' as it stands with it to be reborn with the same livery, uniform etc...... One important difference though will be the fact that all will be crewed by one big workforce on Jetstar/Jetconnect (or less) terms and conditions. So as a Pilot you will turn up one day and fly a 787 in Jetstar colours and the next trip could be a Qantas branded 787. Whilst this massive restructure and change goes on he has conveniently set-up a code share with Emirates to take the slack during the 'down time.

The public won't give a toss if this happens, the big AL will strut around raving about how he saved the Qantas brand :ugh:

BNEA320 6th Dec 2013 00:05

of course, how else can QF survive ?
 
of course QF will become all JQ & all JQ INT crews will be foreigners.


+ people have got to stop expecting to be able to call Qantas & expect someone to answer, esp in OZ.


Even FJ outsouce their call centre to a 3rd party called Mindpearl in SUV.

SilverSleuth 6th Dec 2013 00:06

Joyce says


"The only thing that is not up for review is our profit-maximising domestic position," he said.
He really is smoking something isn't he....

Budfox 6th Dec 2013 00:11




Withdrawal from unprofitable international routes including Bangkok and Hong Kong-London,

Singapore-Frankfurt, Auckland-Los Angeles, Singapore-Mumbai, Perth-Hong Kong and Adelaide-

Singapore


Just referring to this snippet from yesterdays announcement.
Travelled to Bangkok just a few weeks ago Qantas A330.
Was completely full !! Next booking I make will have one less option.

FYSTI 6th Dec 2013 00:16


S&P have downgraded QAN to junk status credit rating.
Conveniently handing Alan the force majeure financial crisis ---> political crisis he needs to complete whatever plan he & the board have - rent seeking 101. Entirely engineered knowing the outcome in advance. As I said before, he is holding a gun to QF's own head.

SilverSleuth 6th Dec 2013 00:20

If JB is smart he will get another 10 330 immediately from Singapore or Ethiad and put them against Qantas / Jetstar most profitable routes (which he would intimately know) and also on the asia routes which Qantas has left abandoned.
No time. For a xmas break now JB.
On the other side.... What a sad way for qantas to go. I feel for all the staff who have to go to work every day with this around their neck.

priapism 6th Dec 2013 00:27

I find it quite surreal. 12 years ago QF went cap in hand to the Government to stop it from bailing AN out after successfully lobbying to prevent SQ buying into AN and effectively re capitalising it. Now it is going cap in hand to the government to help bail itself out. How the wheel turns. Interesting times ahead for QF and it's staff on the aviation industry roller coaster. As usual, it will be the small and vital cogs in the big machine that will pay the price for the big cog's failings.

Good luck to all the QF staff who have remained loyal under trying circumstances.

I'm glad I'm out of it.

mgilmour 6th Dec 2013 00:29

Foreign ownership
 
I think that it would be a very sad day to see Qantas in complete foreign ownership.....

B772 6th Dec 2013 00:45

Tankengine.

Morningstar advise QF has $6B + of debt.

The Balance Sheet shows:

Total Current Assets of $5.245B

Total Current Liabilities of $6.370B

Not a pretty picture and the outcome will see the loss of many more jobs and a reduction in the fleet after a hefty increase in airfares.

ASY68 6th Dec 2013 00:52

Silver,

That's what the cash raising is for :ok:

tail wheel 6th Dec 2013 00:54

Qantas share price:

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v3...ps83c71263.jpg

Yesterday:

"Qantas Airways Limited (ASX:QAN) shares have crashed in early trade, approaching an all time low on the back of an alarming profit update.
Alongside tipping a half year loss of between $250 and $200 million, the carrier also flagged 1000 job losses and executive pay cuts, after spending the past fortnight imploring the federal government for assistance. CEO Alan Joyce says the challenges the airline now faces are immense. Shares in Qantas are trading down 15.98 per cent at $1.01."

ohallen 6th Dec 2013 00:56

This is like watching a time lapse train wreck where everyone knows what is happening and no one does anything as it unfolds.

Even worse when the architects are from within and the staff are slow baked with little ability to influence what is happening.

Dark Knight 6th Dec 2013 00:58


BNEA320

The rot for QF Domestic started when VA started on lower wages and costs, then JQ picked up Impulses's lower cost base, then TT started with an even lower cost base.
No: the rot started long before this with the push for lower wages & costs by QF Domestic (read TAA/Aust & Ansett).

This was imported from overseas particularly Braniff/Continental (read Lorenzo classmate bar one year of Turbo Tie Strong) with the disease spreading throughout the USA, Europe, etc.

Qantas current woes lay entirely at the feet of Qantas management past and present!

B772 6th Dec 2013 01:14

Tailwheel.

Thanks for the chart as it is a good example of support and resistance at a level of $1.40. Any share holders at the beginning of the third week of October should have sold or gone short when the share price dropped through $1.40.

You may have seen my posts in 2012 suggesting QF will bottom out at 89c.

BNEA320 6th Dec 2013 01:20

Are you kidding ?
 
QF salaries are way too high !!!


The world is still in a mess financially & some QF pilots getting 1/2 million a year.

73to91 6th Dec 2013 01:35

Just over a year ago Jetstar and FF were mentioned.


QANTAS management has hunkered down amid a renewed attempt by some of Australia's best-connected businessmen to secure a cornerstone stake and overhaul the airline.

A consortium including financier Mark Carnegie, Leighton finance boss Peter Gregg, adman John Singleton and former Qantas CEO Geoff Dixon has been seeking support for a partial float of Jetstar and Qantas' frequent-flyer loyalty scheme.

Under their plans, the consortium would take a cornerstone stake of about 20 per cent in Qantas, seek three board seats and agitate for management change. Mr Gregg, the Leighton chief financial officer, is regarded as the man most likely to assume the reins as CEO should the consortium be successful.

Consortium in bid to stake Qantas claim

V-Jet 6th Dec 2013 01:36

When that $500k figure was released the comment on everybody's lips was 'surely not'. Apparently it is (or was at some stage) true, but I can promise you its not many, and I would suspect less than 5. Chief Pilot probably (one for each airline of course - keep the Kool Aid coming from someone who used to be trustworthy) and a couple more. It would not be many. Especially with our ever expanding network:)

In any case, there isn't a disparity of wages around the industry - and remember the $AUD is still high. Lunatic argument when $AUD is at .60 for example. Having been to a Sandpit jobs day, and speaking with friends who have gone I can say that most crew at Qf would be slightly better off if they worked at Emirates/Etihad etc. The big proviso is not living in Oz - and that is up to the individual. Staff travel, school allowances, rent allowances etc etc all make a big difference.

Comparing airline wages is difficult, very difficult. There are arguments on both sides of the fence that can make the opposite look crazy. For every $500kpa pilot in the Qf group, I can assure you there would be at least 2-3 $80-100kpa pilot. The only way to work it out is to know first hand after 6-12 months of line flying exactly what the relative positions are. Sensible discussion would leave the subject alone - too hard to work out IMHO.

Insider Trader 6th Dec 2013 01:36

Whilst I admire the passion people here in this forum have for Qantas, the reality is the view in here does not reflect the view of the average punter in the community.
Globalization and the internet has changed the way our economies work. People now expect more for their dollar than ever before, and have more resources at their disposal than ever to be able to get the best deal for themselves. QF's slide into the predicament they are now in is not just as a result of management policy post-float (though no doubt it is a contributing factor). 30 years ago nearly one-in-two Australians flew QF international in terms of market share. Now that figure is less than one-in-five. QF's biggest problem is that people still love the brand - but are no longer prepared to pay the premium on the fares they once were.
The international carrier landscape ex-Oz is more diverse than ever. Fare structures are more competitive than ever. And whether we like it or not, we have to compare apples with oranges when it comes to competition - eg: Lower foreign labour costs, foreign govt. backed/owned airlines, etc. And the rise in the $USD has seen inbound tourism slump, which obviously knocks on to the QF domestic product, the cash cow of the group.
As someone who has worked in the industry for over 2 decades for several airlines, there are 2 obvious changes that must occur for the Qantas brand to have a chance of survival (and i say only a chance).
1. The Oz Fed govt MUST repeal the Qantas Sales Act to allow the company to access the availability of foreign capital. The Act was introduced in the dying days of 'Protectionist Australia' to ensure that the float was politically palatable. It is an antiquated piece of legislation that is now a noose around QF's neck.
2. The QF board/management must accept that they can have EITHER QF international OR Jetstar. It can't have both. It's obvious that these 2 products have been cannibalizing each other for far too long, and management have been fighting on far too many fronts for far too long trying to defend both these products, and using up far too much financial and employee capital in the process.
A combination of legislative repeal and an institutional share holder revolt to throw out the current board for its current strategy is most likely the only hope QF has.
I wish all at QF well. But if the status quo remains, I don't like your prospects

Variable Incidence 6th Dec 2013 01:44

Sadly, but not surprisingly Qantas's credit rating now reflects the realised value of AJ and the Board: absolute JUNK!!!
:\

V-Jet 6th Dec 2013 01:53

IT: Qantas was turned into what it is through managerial incompetence of the highest order. It's perception in the public mind is BECAUSE of this. It is not a contributing factor, it IS the factor. Work for the buggers and you will understand how inane they are.

I understand there is still 10% to go in the shareholders stakes before foreign capital limits are hit? I know its not the whole solution but it is a factor.

The last thing I want is for BGA to succeed in holding a gun to the govts head saying (again) 'Ill shut the place down if you don't do what I want', then getting a bailout of any description, thus having the ammunition to say 'Look what a great job Ive done - bonuses all around!'.

And the snotty little worm will probably get that if the Sales Act is amended. It should be, but a condition should be that board and senior management must GO.

flyingfox 6th Dec 2013 01:57

BNEA320. Not necessarily that Qantas salaries are way to high, but rather that most pilots salaries are far to low. The fact that Australia allows almost open slather access to the Australian aviation market means that we are all potentially subject to the lowest world pay rates. That's the only way to compete with low cost foreign carriers. Australia has a recent history of being the first to surrender local employment to overseas competition. Despite the rhetoric of 'free trade', most countries protect their internal industries. Alan Joyce is engaged in reducing Qantas to the same cost structure as Jetstar and later even lower. He won't rest until that goal is achieved or he is replaced. Qantas will rise again as a brand when it's operating costs are the same as Jet Star. Untill then it is being strangled by culpable neglect.

The The 6th Dec 2013 02:04

IT,

One thing AJ did say correctly is that time is now critical. Changing the sale act will take time that Qantas hasn't got.

When the trading halt ceases, the shares are going to crash as funds are forced to sell out. Qantas will be front page news again.

Customers will be very hesitant to forward book.

This could spiral out of control very very quickly - within a matter of weeks.

If the gov't doesn't provide some immediate help, Qantas will be gone within weeks to maybe a few months.

I think the gov't needs to provide some limited assurance to enable Qantas time to restructure. (and get rid of Joyce).

I think the only thing that will save Qantas now is gov't intervention. I don't want to see the gov't on the hook for billions of debt, but wonder whether there could be some time/dollar limited debt guarantee.

The market and customers and employees are spooked and need some sign of stability - immediately!

DirectAnywhere 6th Dec 2013 02:12

The problem is - who cares? And I say that as an employee.

The government is ideologically opposed to any investment in a public company. International visitor numbers wouldn't materially suffer if QF disappeared tomorrow as they play such a small role these days in the international market. There would be short term damage to the domestic economy but new capacity would move in to the Australian domestic market rapidly if QF disappeared. 30,000 taxpayers on the dole might briefly get the government's attention but apparently it's all part of the necessary pain to globalise the Australian economy ie. head towards Bangladeshi wages and conditions as it's the only way to compete.

I'm appalled with the way this has been handled. The board and executive management should all resign in shame. The fact that management still have the board's support makes me realise how disconnected from reality these idiots actually are.

PS Joyce and Strambi - it might be time to ground the airline again as, if your safety critical employees weren't distracted before, they sure as :mad: are now as they contemplate their family's future.

1A_Please 6th Dec 2013 02:26


But on the flipside innovations that the customer has seen including the QBagTag, QCard, ipads on 767/717. But on the whole despite slipups I still think the overall customer experience is better on QF - meals, drinks for all, better food in the lounges, alcohol spirits in the lounges, but undoubtedly Virgin has closed the gap (as it should when converting from an LCC)
Innovations for some but not necessarily an improvement in experience.
QBagTag was accompanied by no more human interaction on check-in and if you don't have a bag tag, good luck with the bloody stickers.
QCard is nothing that VA don't have
iPads are OK on 767s but bettered by VA's BYOD product.
Drinks and food in the lounges are pretty much the same with either airline and the QF Club has become an over-populated zoo.
Drinks for all is great but it added cost and it probably wasn't a must have.
Food for all can be a mixed blessing with either airline's offerings sometimes being underwhelming to say the least

powerstall 6th Dec 2013 02:27

So how much would be the pay cut for the executives? A$1 a year? :ugh:

The Professor 6th Dec 2013 02:38

"I think that it would be a very sad day to see Qantas in complete foreign ownership....."

Why?

ITman 6th Dec 2013 02:43

Dump AJ with his cronies and make Jet Star are totally independent company financially and the QF will recover, whilst Jet Star is funded by QF the situation will never change.

The Professor 6th Dec 2013 02:46

This could be the catalyst that sees JQ morph into QF. Show the QF employees a JQ contract on one side of the room and a door on the other. Repaint the JQ fleet in QF colors and bingo, cost savings and efficiency gains that will actually mean something.

Variable Incidence 6th Dec 2013 03:03

Really!? Professor. Jetstar the answer/saviour of the Qantas group. You've gotta be f$&@" joking. I'd rather fly Air Nambibia. :mad:

Ida down 6th Dec 2013 03:17

So they are now junk. Terrific. If they were that broke,why then would you go to such a expense to change the CC uniforms? What was wrong with the last one? I am with Xenophon, he wants to look at the books, BEFORE any foreign investment is allowed, and now QF is competing with Holden for any sugar from the Govt. it looks like that is the way its going to go. Anyway back to the cricket, at least that is looking hopeful. 7 for 482. Haddin just got his ton. So did Clark. That should stick it up the Poms.

PAXboy 6th Dec 2013 03:34

BBC reports; BBC News - Qantas: S&P cuts airline's credit rating to junk


The downgrade could increase the airline's borrowing costs and sends a warning to investors.

Capt Kremin 6th Dec 2013 03:42

I have it from an impeccable source that the catalyst for this a couple weeks ago was not QFs financial position but VAs.

VA is/was severely overstretched to the point where the 350 million from Etihad was required to keep it going.

That is the genesis of Joyce's complaint, which considering it appeared out of the blue, seems valid. QF were perhaps weeks from having the market to themselves.

Unfortunately for Joyce, his handling of the situation has backfired on both him and QF. The press have turned on him and the Board. Soon he and his bastard child JQ may no longer be fixtures at QF.

We seem to be entering a period of instability for all the major Australian players.

For the few here slavering over the potential demise of QF, your dream is not yet a fait accompli.

My crystal ball sees JQ Asia sold, Joyce and Clifford gone and QF to restructure and focus, eventually emerging stronger for this.

Don't write off the roo yet.

noip 6th Dec 2013 03:47

Professor,

Your suggestion would require a change to the law of the land. In any event, it is not that which is the cause of the pain, despite your and a few other's "alternative reality" viewpoints.


N

73to91 6th Dec 2013 03:53


Really!? Professor. Jetstar the answer/saviour of the Qantas group. You've gotta be f$&@" joking. I'd rather fly Air Nambibia.
However VI, the punters would be flying QANTAS. Meaning, QANTAS would be flying internationally to DPS, NAN and HNL daily as examples. On the domestic front, Hamilton Island, Goldie multiple times a day, Newcastle, Avalon etc.

That was suggested on here years back as the ultimate goal. Fares would rise depending on the offering, e.g. QANTAS J class and not the joke that JQ calls business class - what you'd have though is yet more 'companies' the new International pilots company formerly JQ pilots, the new cabin crew company, formerly JQ crew etc.

It would be a reverse takeover though much like the Red and Blue tails from 1992, you'd have the Red and Orange tail staff.

However, how does that change the 'foreign investment % ?

Icarus2001 6th Dec 2013 03:57


The Oz Fed govt MUST repeal the Qantas Sales Act to allow the company to access the availability of foreign capital.
Why would foreign capital be interested? When the shares are allowed to trade again they will fall markedly, I guess a buyout then becomes possible. If they were a target at $5.40 they surely must be at $1.00.
On a side note, so much for free market economy, when the share price starts falling because of bad news, the trading in the shares is stopped. Illogical and irrational at best.

spellcheck 6th Dec 2013 04:07

History repeats itself??
 
You may well have it on impeccable authority Capt. K. I can assure you that the same scenario presented itself in 2001 when a legacy carrier in severe financial straits, lobbied emotively to deny rescue to its competitor.
Already the subject of a very public attack on its reputation and wounded by a canabalising parent, this competitor pleaded publically for permission to raise the necessary funds through investment by a foriegn airline . As has been repeatedly stated here by others , the legacy carrier ran straight to the Minister concerned , ( who was later rewarded with a gig there) , ensuring that 16000 people lost their jobs.
What may not be so widely known , but is most definitely true, is that one was sacrificed to save the ailing other, 'flag carrier'.
John Howard's 'love child' (T A) does not seem to have any appetite for rescue this time around.

1a sound asleep 6th Dec 2013 04:09


My crystal ball sees JQ Asia sold, Joyce and Clifford gone and QF to restructure and focus, eventually emerging stronger for this.

Please:D That would be a Christmas bonus +

AEROMEDIC 6th Dec 2013 04:13

I wonder if we'll see another tilt at Qantas by Dixon, Singleton and Carnegie?


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