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REX AIRLINES Trading Halt

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Old 25th October 2024 | 01:37
  #861 (permalink)  
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From: australia
Originally Posted by Switchbait
My guess is, Nifty and co are waiting for it to be wound up, clearing the debt, but positioning themselves in the meantime, to launch a 2.0 subsequent to the wind up.
Is this seriously a realistic outcome?

The only reason I can see it being so is that while it would be possible for other regional carriers to take on all (well most) of Rex's regional routes, from the government's point of view this may be in the 'too messy' basket and it would just be easier for them to throw money at Rex and ensure that a Rex 2.0 becomes a reality.

Would such talks actually be going on anywhere at the moment or are they still actually hoping for a commercial buyer?

If 2.0 does become a reality, I'd be fascinated to see if the 30 odd Saabs currently laying around with missing organs will all be returned to flying condition.
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Old 25th October 2024 | 05:39
  #862 (permalink)  
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The folks in Canberra really need to figure out which side of the fence they are on. REX took on alot of risk and it didn't work out, that isn't the tax payer's problem.
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Old 25th October 2024 | 05:46
  #863 (permalink)  
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If the feds throw money at this problem then it will confirm that they are even more tone deaf than previously demonstrated.
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Old 25th October 2024 | 07:06
  #864 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Icarus2001
If the feds throw money at this problem then it will confirm that they are even more tone deaf than previously demonstrated.
The feds are a particularly tone deaf breed, and whenever the topic of regional/remote/isolated communities comes up, they tread very carefully before having to make unpopular decisions.
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Old 25th October 2024 | 07:22
  #865 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by mikewil
The feds are a particularly tone deaf breed, and whenever the topic of regional/remote/isolated communities comes up, they tread very carefully before having to make unpopular decisions.
It's either a government which fear backlash from the general public or the other side which write blank cheques to the mates who head the board. You can't win.
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Old 25th October 2024 | 07:28
  #866 (permalink)  
 
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From: Sydney
been following a few weeks now.

Will the government out Rex. More than likely and the deal is probably being done at the moment. The bail out would only cover the regional part hence why Pel-Air, AAPA Wagga & the like are on the market. More than likely NJE 50% share will hit soon as well. Everything will be sold that can be sold to lower the bail out amount with Pel-Air being sold and the 170M secured credit gone it just leaves PAG, Employees, ATO & EY with the rest being cents on the dollar in a DOCA arrangement.

Sold so far
Simulator Centre sold (5-10M assuming)
B737 Parts including an engine (10-20M in parts)
House in Mascot Sold (market would say around 3M)
Pel-Air 47.1M + 170M Debt (217.1M)

For Sale
AAPA Wagga (should go for 20-30M)
HQ & Annex (Should be around 15-20M)

To come:
NJE 50%
hangar
APPA Ballarat
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Old 25th October 2024 | 07:42
  #867 (permalink)  
 
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From: Oz
That old chestnut again, a bailout but not a bailout.

Get ready for all the ‘It’s not a bailout’ nonsense. It’s just money shuffling around ‘in the back’.
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Old 25th October 2024 | 21:02
  #868 (permalink)  
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From: Brisbane
Originally Posted by neilalmighty
been following a few weeks now.

Will the government out Rex. More than likely and the deal is probably being done at the moment. The bail out would only cover the regional part hence why Pel-Air, AAPA Wagga & the like are on the market. More than likely NJE 50% share will hit soon as well. Everything will be sold that can be sold to lower the bail out amount with Pel-Air being sold and the 170M secured credit gone it just leaves PAG, Employees, ATO & EY with the rest being cents on the dollar in a DOCA arrangement.

Sold so far
Simulator Centre sold (5-10M assuming)
B737 Parts including an engine (10-20M in parts)
House in Mascot Sold (market would say around 3M)
Pel-Air 47.1M + 170M Debt (217.1M)

For Sale
AAPA Wagga (should go for 20-30M)
HQ & Annex (Should be around 15-20M)

To come:
NJE 50%
hangar
APPA Ballarat
No chance of a bailout, 350M of debt still there and sweet little to show for it. The pel air sale raised funds that were going to pay secured debt, that’s likely to be the WBC loan. Others are well positioned to fill most of the gaps.
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Old 25th October 2024 | 22:23
  #869 (permalink)  
IAW
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Yes I really hope the free market is left to its own devices.

By all accounts Rex's regional business model was unsustainable. Lack of parts, pilots, engineers.

Let competent operators fill the void.
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Old 25th October 2024 | 23:22
  #870 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by IAW
Yes I really hope the free market is left to its own devices.

By all accounts Rex's regional business model was unsustainable. Lack of parts, pilots, engineers.

Let competent operators fill the void.
Unfortunately Rex had the best business model for an independent regional, they threw the magic formula away more than 10 years ago. They had scale, the right sized aircraft and streamlined operations to minimize cost.

The downfall started in many areas, but the key points are;

One - that they tried to practice adversarial industrial relations in a shrinking/tight employee market, not understanding the real value of key employee groups and the additional costs of low experience in a skilled workforce environment = inept management. The employees were there and left due to no quarter provided by management at key times in history. The new employees, whether it be pilots or engineers have to operate for a number of years to catch up with the efficiency gains the old employees had by experience on type, in the mean time costing the operation more, whether it be direct/indirect training costs or online 'learning' experiences.

Two - they failed to understand the nature of their own machines and operational cost consequences of not investing in continual upgrade of said machines, and additional preventative maintenance of ageing plant and equipment and the consequences/costs of not doing so = inept management. The SAABs would be absolutely fine for the market they exist in for at least another 10-15 years or more, given a proper upgrade program started 10+ years ago, as it is the company played with cosmetics rather than real efficiency improvements.

Three - failure to understand the benefits of proper sustained and targeted marketing and advertising = inept management.

Four - failure to work with employees and target markets to improve and expand services, following the management mantra 'we know best' = inept management.

That being said the other operators in the market Rex will exit are worse and are all struggling at present with the same issues due mostly the same factors.

QLink is almost a carbon copy of Rex in it's problems, it just has a mother-ship to look after it and pay for it's mistakes.

Link, is not doing particularly well, so long term viability is an issue there, they may be fullish, but the contracts with VA are like the regionals in the US of the past keep a lid on profits.

After that it's all minor players with poor track records similar to Rex in management.

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Old 26th October 2024 | 01:00
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Link would need a capital raise and extremely unlikely any major lender would assist, they would need to lean on Bain or Canberra to borrow. That doesn’t really solve the medium term Saab issue, from all reports, Link hasn’t invested much in the way of fleet longevity either.

Perhaps it might be easier for Canberra to just bite their teeth, do a fare subsidy deal with QLink, and get Qantas to take on the capacity.

A whole bunch of Rex routes outside of NSW can be offloaded to others.
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Old 26th October 2024 | 07:28
  #872 (permalink)  
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From: CNS
https://www.cairnspost.com.au/news/c...3dd8390b7a0448

There wasn’t much talk of government assistance almost 10 years ago when Skytrans collapsed following the loss of the North QLD subsidised routes to Rex.
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Old 26th October 2024 | 08:31
  #873 (permalink)  
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From: NQLD
Originally Posted by threegreensconfirmed
https://www.cairnspost.com.au/news/c...3dd8390b7a0448

There wasn’t much talk of government assistance almost 10 years ago when Skytrans collapsed following the loss of the North QLD subsidised routes to Rex.
Why would there have been???

What was left of Skytrans Mk1 wasn’t worth saving. Also no substantial route network that couldn’t immediately be taken over by other operators. West Wing took LHR/AUR and KOW/PMP days later, Rex took Bamaga. Brisbane was just mining charter which is not a govt problem…
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Old 26th October 2024 | 09:31
  #874 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by aviation_enthus
Why would there have been???

Also no substantial route network that couldn’t immediately be taken over by other operators.
Exactly.
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Old 26th October 2024 | 09:58
  #875 (permalink)  
 
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From: The Bin
Skytrans, Hinterland, Nexus, Sharp, Skippers have all come out and said they’d be able to step up if/as required and take on Rex routes and employ Rex crew.
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Old 10th November 2024 | 16:00
  #876 (permalink)  
 
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From: Australia
So that extended November 25 deadline that the administrators went to court to achieve, is fast approaching. Seems very quiet in REX land...
Starting to feel a lot like the Bonza situation, which of course ended in liquidation. The Administrators were first very confident of a sale within 5 weeks. Then that became late September. Now it's November, and still no news.
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Old 10th November 2024 | 21:49
  #877 (permalink)  
 
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From: Oz
No doubt in deep discussions with Labor on how to avoid a crash landing.
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Old 11th November 2024 | 02:49
  #878 (permalink)  
 
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From: Finca
Interestingly, I’ve heard they’re still running ground courses 🧐. I’d be running a mile from that joint but I wonder what BS spin management are telling the devoted?
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Old 11th November 2024 | 02:51
  #879 (permalink)  
 
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From: Australia
Originally Posted by snakeslugger
Interestingly, I’ve heard they’re still running ground courses 🧐. I’d be running a mile from that joint but I wonder what BS spin management are telling the devoted?
There are multiple job listings too on the REX website. I don't know what to make of that.
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Old 11th November 2024 | 05:00
  #880 (permalink)  
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From: Sydney Australia
Originally Posted by FruitSnack
There are multiple job listings too on the REX website. I don't know what to make of that.
It’s puzzling alright. Given the absolute silence over the last few weeks, it’s difficult to be certain what will happen at the end of the month. If the job advertisements, plans to spend dwindling resources on ground courses, new engines and the like is just spin, then what is the Administrator playing at? I know I’d be pretty pissed off if part of my entitlements were being used to chase Unicorns!
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