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What is the future for the Jetstar B787 fleet

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What is the future for the Jetstar B787 fleet

Old 18th Dec 2020, 08:55
  #21 (permalink)  
 
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The thing that stands out about the effect that COVID-19 has had on FUTURE International flying (after vaccination has extensive coverage) is that it has to be Point-to-Point to minimise the potential of infection. P2P requires a much larger number of smaller capacity, long range aircraft to achieve the frequency of flights that the sales staff require for a route to be viable.

When you look at the JQ International destinations then it stands out that the A321XLR is a much more suitable aircraft than the B787-8 which has too much capacity to achieve the required frequency (forget about HNL which isn’t a true LCC destination). The B787 may be brought back into service as a stopgap until deliveries of the A321LR/XLR’s can resume but their days are numbered, IMHO.
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Old 18th Dec 2020, 13:00
  #22 (permalink)  

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Was waiting for someone to mention the Cabin Crew. Pretty big limitation to train crews up, especially when they’re dropping like flies for Domestic work!🙄
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Old 18th Dec 2020, 18:35
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Good point. As far as I know, all of the OZ based international (787) Cabin Managers / crew on the old contract have been made redundant.
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Old 18th Dec 2020, 19:46
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Originally Posted by Iron Bar View Post
Good point. As far as I know, all of the OZ based international (787) Cabin Managers / crew on the old contract have been made redundant.
They didn't get made redundant! They took a voluntary redundancy JQ had to stop offering as to many were taking it up. There is a lot of qualified 78 on domestic fleet, enough to get a couple 78s flying domestically and if that is the case I'm sure JQ will get what ever is needed from the unions to allow them to give them the boot back to domestic when international starts up again.
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Old 18th Dec 2020, 22:50
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Old 19th Dec 2020, 00:02
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Jetstar 787s? Perhaps this...

Mainline 747 gone. Mainline A380s will never come back. QF will RIN those two fleets, and look to get rid of as many senior long haul drivers as possible. A real clean out.

Once that’s done, JQ 787s to mainline to bolster their international fleet, plus an eventual A350 order at dirt cheap post COVID prices to replace the A330.

JQ to go back to exclusively A320/321 fleet to compete with Rex and protect LCC market share.

That’s my guess, but who knows!
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Old 19th Dec 2020, 00:11
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Originally Posted by Slippery_Pete View Post
Jetstar 787s? Perhaps this...

Mainline 747 gone. Mainline A380s will never come back. QF will RIN those two fleets, and look to get rid of as many senior long haul drivers as possible. A real clean out.
In addition to the 238 who left the business in the last few weeks?

There are only 7 747 line Captains left. About 35 F/Os. The A380 has roughly 40 Captains and less than 80 F/Os.

If Qantas returns 6 A380s (and they will if there is the demand) they’re short of Captains on the fleet to the tune of roughly 25.
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Old 19th Dec 2020, 02:25
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I think come the second half of 2021, the JQ 787’s will be working their proverbial off. They’re even forecasting being ahead of their precovid domestic levels by March. Just imagine when International opens up?
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Old 19th Dec 2020, 03:14
  #29 (permalink)  

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Originally Posted by Slippery_Pete View Post
JQ 787s to mainline to bolster their international fleet,
Expensive refit, no crew rest so short haul only.
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Old 19th Dec 2020, 04:02
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Originally Posted by Wingspar View Post
I think come the second half of 2021, the JQ 787’s will be working their proverbial off. They’re even forecasting being ahead of their precovid domestic levels by March. Just imagine when International opens up?
I couldn’t agree more!
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Old 19th Dec 2020, 05:26
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Originally Posted by Wingspar View Post
They’re even forecasting being ahead of their precovid domestic levels by March. Just imagine when International opens up?
When was that forecast made? It might have been valid two days ago, I'd suggest it's nowhere near valid now given the events of the last couple of days.
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Old 16th Jan 2021, 03:03
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The JQ B787 fleet has been devalued. The low cost carrier Norwegian has just put 37 x B787 on the market. Including unsold whitetails there are approx. 100 B787's for sale.
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Old 16th Jan 2021, 04:53
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Originally Posted by B772 View Post
The JQ B787 fleet has been devalued. The low cost carrier Norwegian has just put 37 x B787 on the market. Including unsold whitetails there are approx. 100 B787's for sale.
maybe the Qantas group should buy or lease some of these B787s. Should be very very cheap.

Would have thought the growth over next few years would mainly be in Jetstar long haul with recession that's going to be a monster & last years.

Why not Jetstar long haul to USA with a tech stop, somewhere ? Not HNL though as messy for pax going on furhter.

Doesn't mean it has to fly to LAX or SFO. Plenty of cheaper less crowded options like ONT or OAK or somewhere further east like LAS.

Air NZ has long flights AKL/USA mainland & YVR I think, going via HNL with separate crew to fly eg. HNL/LAX/HNL. Painful for pax having to get off at HNL, collect bags & get back on board. Maybe Americans might make exception or HNL/LAX would be a domestic flight & no 2nd customs at LAX etc.
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Old 16th Jan 2021, 05:43
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JQ 78 would be a good fit for SY-LAS. I’d even be keen for that
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Old 16th Jan 2021, 05:44
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Originally Posted by Ragnor View Post
JQ 78 would be a good fit for SY-LAS. I’d even be keen for that
where could tech stop be ? (seeing JQ would pack the seats in)

APW ?

NAN ?

If NAN, Qantas should "convince" FJ/Fiji govt somehow, to allow sales LAS/NAN without flying onto Australia.
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Old 16th Jan 2021, 06:06
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Originally Posted by getaway View Post
maybe the Qantas group should buy or lease some of these B787s. Should be very very cheap.

Would have thought the growth over next few years would mainly be in Jetstar long haul with recession that's going to be a monster & last years.

Why not Jetstar long haul to USA with a tech stop, somewhere ? Not HNL though as messy for pax going on furhter.

Doesn't mean it has to fly to LAX or SFO. Plenty of cheaper less crowded options like ONT or OAK or somewhere further east like LAS.

Air NZ has long flights AKL/USA mainland & YVR I think, going via HNL with separate crew to fly eg. HNL/LAX/HNL. Painful for pax having to get off at HNL, collect bags & get back on board. Maybe Americans might make exception or HNL/LAX would be a domestic flight & no 2nd customs at LAX etc.
Apart from the fact that the Norwegian 787s are RR powered so not particularly attractive to QF whose 787s are all GE powered, QF does not added capacity. At the moment the fleet is basically entirely dormant and it is unlikely this will change much before Q4. When flights return, they have heaps of available capacity in the form of A332s for Asia-Pac which are not so busy as domestic has eased off as well as a fleet of 12 A380s that are ideal if and when the major long-haul trunk routes to LAX and LHR come back.

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Old 16th Jan 2021, 06:19
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Originally Posted by 1A_Please View Post
Apart from the fact that the Norwegian 787s are RR powered so not particularly attractive to QF whose 787s are all GE powered, QF does not added capacity. At the moment the fleet is basically entirely dormant and it is unlikely this will change much before Q4. When flights return, they have heaps of available capacity in the form of A332s for Asia-Pac which are not so busy as domestic has eased off as well as a fleet of 12 A380s that are ideal if and when the major long-haul trunk routes to LAX and LHR come back.
from what I gather the A380 model only works when full & not filled with loss leader seats. Guess it's all about fuel costs, but many airlines are retiring their A380s.

Many will want low fares, which LCCs like Jetstar can provide, or, they simply won't fly at all.

There's still going to be lots of discounting & loss leader fares, even with reduced capacity, while the recession runs it's course, just maybe not peak season.

Remember, many small business owners won't be flying anywhere for years.
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Old 16th Jan 2021, 11:22
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I’m not convinced LCC will be the saviour out of COVID. For the vast majority of the Australian public, this has been merely a blip on the radar of their earnings and savings. With their bank accounts overflowing and property prices holding up,I think they’ll be less inclined to travel on LCCs, at least in the short term. They’ve all had a bad experience with a last minute cancelled JQ flight and the lack of ground support that goes with it.

Obviously if a recession kicks in, all bets are off, but initially I think full cost will be popular for the leisure market, especially if uncertainty about borders still exists and the possibility of cancellations abounds.
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Old 16th Jan 2021, 11:58
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Jetstar has frequency, network and monopoly on many markets that QF and VA do not (ie right across Queensland) that are popular with leisure pax so they should be right. They have much more point to point routes vs Virgin. I will suffer a loco in a exit seat vs running via another place just to sit on Virgin. Outside of cyclone season, Jetstar has half dozen A321 flights into Cairns from Sydney and Melbourne, each. Qantas and Virgin have one. They also have considerable point to point routes out of many Queensland leisure destinations that the others don’t.

Jetstar will get the Tiger traffic, a large chunk which was foreign tourists, when the world moves on. I don’t know where the Rex pax are coming from.

The market was pretty flat and has been for a while, I don’t think we will be seeing any growth, and I’m not sure what growth Rex is thinking about when they start taking about 40 odd machines that are in the fairytale they are planning.
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Old 16th Jan 2021, 12:18
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Originally Posted by Transition Layer View Post
I’m not convinced LCC will be the saviour out of COVID. For the vast majority of the Australian public, this has been merely a blip on the radar of their earnings and savings. With their bank accounts overflowing and property prices holding up,I think they’ll be less inclined to travel on LCCs, at least in the short term. They’ve all had a bad experience with a last minute cancelled JQ flight and the lack of ground support that goes with it.

Obviously if a recession kicks in, all bets are off, but initially I think full cost will be popular for the leisure market, especially if uncertainty about borders still exists and the possibility of cancellations abounds.
property is well & truly stuffed after overly generous welfare ends. Might take a few months. ANZ bank says June/July. Media will overhype it as usual & concentrate on all the mortgagee in possession auctions with no reserves.

Anyone who pays top dollar for any real estate now is crazy. Jetstar doesn't have a good name but either does Qantas.
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