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REX to transition to ATRs, start domestic jet ops

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REX to transition to ATRs, start domestic jet ops

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Old 20th Jun 2023, 23:14
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Originally Posted by Australopithecus
There is always some business owner lamenting a labour shortage when in fact they are really complaining about the abolishment of slavery and the free market for labour.
Exactly - I recall Sharp rejoicing at the fact that he’d be able to start up an airline during COVID and have extremely cheap labour because of Virgin going into administration. Oh how the free market has delivered the ultimate slap of karma to his face.
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Old 20th Jun 2023, 23:22
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Originally Posted by MickG0105
If Rex can't turn a profit under the current conditions, then there is something fundamentally wrong with their business model.
And ultimately this is the nuts and bolts of it all. I struggle to think of a more profitable time for airlines than right now. If Rex is still posting losses - something has to change.

Was this a case of Corporate Shiny Jet Syndrome where the eye of the Execs was firmly taken off the ball - where the core business wasn’t focussed on?

Or is there something fundamentally wrong with the core (Regional) business and the company will have to consolidate further and move to focussing even more on the jet / fifo market? Time will tell….
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Old 21st Jun 2023, 00:13
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Originally Posted by Icarus2001
Okay 43, Virgin appears to be in profit, Alliance is in profit, how many more excuses do you want to make for REX?
Not making excuses for Rex just saying the QF super profit is because half their flights were pre paid, and then paid for again, after the company received subsidies to be cost neutral during covid. The double loading of old booking plus new bookings and aggressive cancellation policy inflated the price of seats so that new and existing customers were effectively paying double. Theres a reason the spotlight is on QFs behavioure since the pandemic. Rex was quick to re emburse passengers, where QF offered credits only.

The smart/devious part to QFs plan was that they manged to turn a liability into a capacity constraint and resell already sold seats, that is credits used on the exact same flight had to pay extra for the same service. Plus use that pre booked capcity to charge higher prices for new passengers.

VA is possibly profitable because they had all their debt wiped and started from scratch with pre existing customers, established network and a workforce on effectively 20% less.

Alliance is a Fifo operator that basically cant loose money.

Rex is expanding a new fleet and dealing with its management sins of the past, both dragging on the company.

PS in regard to how weak Australian consumer law is, our travel plans in the US when disrupted were offered 3 different options, full refund, re booking on like for like service no cost at a future date at the companies direction or credits to the value of 125% of paid for future use. QF group and VA had one choice of credits to only the value paid, Rex offered full refunds for Covid disrupted flights and so on.

As a result there are numerous calls out there to change the consumer laws, and QF group is in the news every second day with disaffected passengers who have lost credits, been charged double for flights, cancellations that have incurred change of flight charges etc etc.... Fine if you have choice, but when one company runs 60%+ of the market there's not much choice out there.

Alan might be a dick, but he knows how to generate profit from a stone, and still by the law, even if it does lack morality and compassion.

Last edited by 43Inches; 21st Jun 2023 at 00:47.
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Old 21st Jun 2023, 01:38
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Shares in REX changed hands at $1 earlier today. Back to where they were 3 years ago.
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Old 21st Jun 2023, 01:48
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Originally Posted by B772
A SAAB 2000 is a licence to lose lots of money.
It's lucky Rex operate only SAAB 340s then...
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Old 21st Jun 2023, 01:55
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[QUOTE=MickG0105;

[i]"If Rex can't turn a profit under the current conditions, then there is something fundamentally wrong with their business model."

The REX business model, as per their original submission to ASIC, cited the upcoming demise of VA as an opportunity to get into a domestic Jet Operation.

Draw your own conclusions on that!
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Old 21st Jun 2023, 03:10
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Alliance is a Fifo operator that basically cant loose money.
Did you mean lose? You forgot about the thirty Ejets operating “RPT” for QantasLink.

Rex is expanding a new fleet and dealing with its management sins of the past
Again, Alliance has ADDED thirty Ejets in the last two years. Purchased not leased as REX has done. Who looks like a more savvy operator?

Totally agree with you 43inches about consumer law in Australia. We are poorly served by both flavours of government in this regard. Just look at the EU rules on delayed flights etc. We need much better in Australia. Our government cannot even keep the lights on.
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Old 21st Jun 2023, 03:42
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Did you mean lose? You forgot about the thirty Ejets operating “RPT” for QantasLink.
Same same really, ones chartering to a mining company the other is chartering to an airline, unless they have rocks in their heads they would price the runs to QF at a profit. Question is what happens if QF pulls the pin and they have all those jets and no work, answer is similar to what happened to Strategic. Hopefully the savvy operator has big penalties for contract withdrawal. Alliance at least is trying to stay away from what Skywest did, and that is move heavily into RPT rather than stick to its FiFo base.
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Old 21st Jun 2023, 05:16
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REX are bigger grifters than Donald Trump; it is only a matter of time before they cry poor and say to governments, both state and federal, that regional services will be cut unless assistance is provided. They do not have the balance sheet to finance a replacement of the SAAB fleet any other way.
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Old 21st Jun 2023, 06:27
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Alliance is at least staying away from what Skywest did, and that is move heavily into RPT rather than stick to its FiFo base.
My recollection back to the Jetstream and Fokker 50 days was that RPT was the BASE for Skywest, not FIFO. That came later. There was only ONE jet charter operator at Perth airport and that was NJS. Alliance started with one F100 to Mt Keith. Skywest were late to the FIFO party.
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Old 21st Jun 2023, 08:11
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Originally Posted by Icarus2001
My recollection back to the Jetstream and Fokker 50 days was that RPT was the BASE for Skywest, not FIFO. That came later. There was only ONE jet charter operator at Perth airport and that was NJS. Alliance started with one F100 to Mt Keith. Skywest were late to the FIFO party.
XR was doing FIFO for Rio Tinto's Argyle Diamond mine before QQ came west - that was what got them into F100s in the first place. When QQ came west, they wanted to be able to tap XR's parts store.

That aside, if you are not making money doing FIFO, you're doing it wrong. RPT is much harder as the operator bears all the risk. Rex are buggered because they haven't kept up with the market when it comes to pay, and now whine about losing pilots and engineers to those who are willing to pay more. If they couldn't see that coming a few months ago and did something about it, then it is their own damn fault. And with Qantas moving onto the Rex network they should have done something about it rather than just whine and cut routes. That's what management should be paid for, you would think.
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Old 21st Jun 2023, 08:58
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Pay is only a small part of the problem wrt to Rex pilots leaving, its more about treatment and lifestyle. Economics will never allow a SAAB operator to compete for crew on a 'pay' basis with 737+ operators. But for a long time now they have been squeezing what was a fairly part time job into full time pilot hours, doing 6 hours a day for 4 days a week would be fine for current pay. Do jet job hours and rosters for turboprop pay, and the proof is in the pudding, mass exodus whenever the opportunity presents itself... I used to think the management there had some idea, turns out they just ran what was left of Ansett into the ground sucking whatever was left from the stone. That is they took something most anyone could have profit from and just cut costs to keep it afloat until the wheels fall off, the last ten years have seen pitiful management, and that is mostly in the role of staff management and retention. I remember hearing when they slashed the pay of a sim instructor, and thought, these guys want to run a high flow, through training airline, and are stupid enough that they don't recognize they have to pay the training staff more to keep up the rates.... It's like somebody within management there is actively working against the airline now.
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Old 21st Jun 2023, 09:52
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Originally Posted by 43Inches
Pay is only a small part of the problem wrt to Rex pilots leaving, its more about treatment and lifestyle. Economics will never allow a SAAB operator to compete for crew on a 'pay' basis with 737+ operators. But for a long time now they have been squeezing what was a fairly part time job into full time pilot hours, doing 6 hours a day for 4 days a week would be fine for current pay. Do jet job hours and rosters for turboprop pay, and the proof is in the pudding, mass exodus whenever the opportunity presents itself... I used to think the management there had some idea, turns out they just ran what was left of Ansett into the ground sucking whatever was left from the stone. That is they took something most anyone could have profit from and just cut costs to keep it afloat until the wheels fall off, the last ten years have seen pitiful management, and that is mostly in the role of staff management and retention. I remember hearing when they slashed the pay of a sim instructor, and thought, these guys want to run a high flow, through training airline, and are stupid enough that they don't recognize they have to pay the training staff more to keep up the rates.... It's like somebody within management there is actively working against the airline now.
Pay will be a huge issue going forward. The bew cadetship agreement is 9 years, 150k loan and 50k balloon payment at the end. How does a cadet survive on 50k while paying a cadet loan and expected to live in a capital city?
They will struggle to find willing participants.
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Old 21st Jun 2023, 22:47
  #2254 (permalink)  
 
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Well that is what the market thought of REX yesterday. Around a 13% drop in the share price. The graph shows five years of activity.
There is no question that their jet plan relied on Virgin being out of the market. I am not sure they had a contingency for if Virgin continued to operate.
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Old 22nd Jun 2023, 01:58
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Originally Posted by Ladloy
Pay will be a huge issue going forward. The bew cadetship agreement is 9 years, 150k loan and 50k balloon payment at the end. How does a cadet survive on 50k while paying a cadet loan and expected to live in a capital city?
They will struggle to find willing participants.
9 years is a long time in Rex. Many will be knocking on Virgin and J* door well before then. Or another Emirates exodus again.
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Old 22nd Jun 2023, 03:25
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Originally Posted by PoppaJo
9 years is a long time in Rex. Many will be knocking on Virgin and J* door well before then. Or another Emirates exodus again.
They are so confident in the new agreement they are still advertising 7 years on the FAQ
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Old 22nd Jun 2023, 06:04
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Originally Posted by Icarus2001

Well that is what the market thought of REX yesterday. Around a 13% drop in the share price. The graph shows five years of activity.
There is no question that their jet plan relied on Virgin being out of the market. I am not sure they had a contingency for if Virgin continued to operate.
Given that in 2020 VA were less than 50/50 to survive and become the next AN, REX would have had rocks in it's head not to take a chance on filling the potential void
1) Covid impact would not last forever
2) Big chance VA were history
3) Even if VA were saver it was looking like the revived airline would resemble Ansett Mark 2
3) Plenty of cheap 737s available, along with crew

Very few people counted on what Bain managed to achieve with VA though

This obviously left REX in a dilemma as to which way to go forward
Rather than a rapid growth to 30+ frames, they slowed growth way down and seem to be doing ok thus far

Where did they go wrong ?
They took a punt on VA going busto

That said, I have thought all along that their disconnected regional network was too reliant on their interline deal with VA in the first place
Even without the VA potential collapse, they could likely have put 30-40 pax on their 737s just from connecting pax they gave to VA, eg Wagga to Brisbane, add another 70-80 walk ups and you at least break even

Now REX will open new routes and add frequencies gradually topping up their fleet with 2-4 frames per year

As far as I am concerned, they have adapted well
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Old 22nd Jun 2023, 06:30
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How long can they lose $35 million per annum for?
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Old 22nd Jun 2023, 08:17
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Originally Posted by Icarus2001
How long can they lose $35 million per annum for?
Deano will correct me if I'm wrong, but they're past halfway in their convertible shares, so less than 70 mil to tap into. 2 years if PAG decide they hate money
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Old 22nd Jun 2023, 08:34
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Originally Posted by Ladloy
Deano will correct me if I'm wrong, but they're past halfway in their convertible shares, so less than 70 mil to tap into. 2 years if PAG decide they hate money
They will have to change their name to 'NAG' if they want to continue to back these kind of horses...Sorry, had to say it.
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