All borders to reopen.
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Oxford epidemiologist pushes herd immunity. article in THE AUSTRALIAN 8th July. by Jacquelin Magnay
One of the worlds top epidemiologists has urged Australia to abandon a lockdown strategy against Coronavirus and look to the Swedish model
of developing herd immunity. Sanetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology in the department of zoology at the University of Oxford, says
Australia is adopting a selfish and selfish-congratulatory approach which is misguided and will have a negative long-term consequence and urged
the country to look at the latest evidence to decide it's tactics. She said the Australian government changed its approach and let the virus-which 80-90%
of the population will only get asymptotically spread naturally, with intense protections for those most vulnerable, it would in the long term help protect all
of the Australians from future viral threats and also avoid the most damaging short term economic impacts for the underprivileged.
The most recent scientific research shows that between 30-80% of the population has natural immunity to coronavirus because the body's T-cells
recognise the threat from having had other cold and flu viruses. Scientists believe having coronavirus causes people's immune systems to develop antibodies
and T-cell responses to future viruses. Professor Gupta said: " One of the reasons why I'm not worried about this virus is a running theme in research work
is how previous exposure to viruses protects you from incoming threats." She warned that suppression of the virus did not work and lockdown simply
resulted in some parts the population being more exposed to the virus when it next flared up. She said,"There is no way lockdown can eliminate the virus
and so it's not at all surprising once you lift lockdown in areas it will flare up again. That is what we are seeing in southern USA, and in Australia.
In places where it has already swept through, a proportion of people are immune and you are not seeing it come back."
She said instead of lockdowns governments should focus energies on shielding the elderly and those with comorbidities to protect them as much as possible.
Professor Gupta said countries that had closed off borders were not ensuring populations remained exposed to the virus at some point, but long term it was unsustainable.
"You can only lock down for so lock down unless you choose to be in isolation for eternity so that's not a good solution," she said.
She said Australia may think it is an effective short-term strategy but there are long term consequences. "Being self-congratulatory,'we have kept it out', is misplaced.
Professor Gupta said Sweden's measured social-distancing approach had offered greater protections for the entire region because Scandinavia now had high levels of immunity.
Professor Gupta said Swedes "have done quite well in terms of deaths". She said Denmark and Norway, which locked down and have had lower deaths rates, may yet find next wave difficult.
This now begs the question. Dan will flatten the curve, cases will slide down to a few after 6 weeks. Then the borders open, stage 3 abandoned
until another cluster breakout and hey presto we go into another 6 week lockdown. Victorians won't take that. The above article has to come into play.
One of the worlds top epidemiologists has urged Australia to abandon a lockdown strategy against Coronavirus and look to the Swedish model
of developing herd immunity. Sanetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology in the department of zoology at the University of Oxford, says
Australia is adopting a selfish and selfish-congratulatory approach which is misguided and will have a negative long-term consequence and urged
the country to look at the latest evidence to decide it's tactics. She said the Australian government changed its approach and let the virus-which 80-90%
of the population will only get asymptotically spread naturally, with intense protections for those most vulnerable, it would in the long term help protect all
of the Australians from future viral threats and also avoid the most damaging short term economic impacts for the underprivileged.
The most recent scientific research shows that between 30-80% of the population has natural immunity to coronavirus because the body's T-cells
recognise the threat from having had other cold and flu viruses. Scientists believe having coronavirus causes people's immune systems to develop antibodies
and T-cell responses to future viruses. Professor Gupta said: " One of the reasons why I'm not worried about this virus is a running theme in research work
is how previous exposure to viruses protects you from incoming threats." She warned that suppression of the virus did not work and lockdown simply
resulted in some parts the population being more exposed to the virus when it next flared up. She said,"There is no way lockdown can eliminate the virus
and so it's not at all surprising once you lift lockdown in areas it will flare up again. That is what we are seeing in southern USA, and in Australia.
In places where it has already swept through, a proportion of people are immune and you are not seeing it come back."
She said instead of lockdowns governments should focus energies on shielding the elderly and those with comorbidities to protect them as much as possible.
Professor Gupta said countries that had closed off borders were not ensuring populations remained exposed to the virus at some point, but long term it was unsustainable.
"You can only lock down for so lock down unless you choose to be in isolation for eternity so that's not a good solution," she said.
She said Australia may think it is an effective short-term strategy but there are long term consequences. "Being self-congratulatory,'we have kept it out', is misplaced.
Professor Gupta said Sweden's measured social-distancing approach had offered greater protections for the entire region because Scandinavia now had high levels of immunity.
Professor Gupta said Swedes "have done quite well in terms of deaths". She said Denmark and Norway, which locked down and have had lower deaths rates, may yet find next wave difficult.
This now begs the question. Dan will flatten the curve, cases will slide down to a few after 6 weeks. Then the borders open, stage 3 abandoned
until another cluster breakout and hey presto we go into another 6 week lockdown. Victorians won't take that. The above article has to come into play.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/vaccine-re...ry?id=71662733
Bend alot
Belgium is counting differently to most countries
”Belgian officials say they are counting in a way that no other country in the world is currently doing: counting deaths in hospitals and care homes, but including deaths in care homes that are suspected, not confirmed, as Covid-19 cases”
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52491210
Compared to some other countries that have only been counting confirmed cases and still
others that were not counting deaths in aged care.
Probably still too early to be reliable, but the ‘excess deaths / funerals’ is probably going to be the most reliable indicator of how countries / states have fared.
Belgium is counting differently to most countries
”Belgian officials say they are counting in a way that no other country in the world is currently doing: counting deaths in hospitals and care homes, but including deaths in care homes that are suspected, not confirmed, as Covid-19 cases”
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52491210
Compared to some other countries that have only been counting confirmed cases and still
others that were not counting deaths in aged care.
Probably still too early to be reliable, but the ‘excess deaths / funerals’ is probably going to be the most reliable indicator of how countries / states have fared.
Last edited by layman; 13th Jul 2020 at 00:34.
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Bend alot
Belgium is counting differently to most countries
”Belgian officials say they are counting in a way that no other country in the world is currently doing: counting deaths in hospitals and care homes, but including deaths in care homes that are suspected, not confirmed, as Covid-19 cases”
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52491210
Compared to some other countries that have only been counting confirmed cases and still
others that were not counting deaths in aged care.
Probably still too early to be reliable, but the ‘excess deaths / funerals’ is probably going to be the most reliable indicator of how countries / states have fared.
Belgium is counting differently to most countries
”Belgian officials say they are counting in a way that no other country in the world is currently doing: counting deaths in hospitals and care homes, but including deaths in care homes that are suspected, not confirmed, as Covid-19 cases”
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52491210
Compared to some other countries that have only been counting confirmed cases and still
others that were not counting deaths in aged care.
Probably still too early to be reliable, but the ‘excess deaths / funerals’ is probably going to be the most reliable indicator of how countries / states have fared.
Everything above the dotted line is excess, everything below was going anyway.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...ross-countries
currawong
Many thanks. I’ve seen snippets of this information elsewhere but not such wide-ranging summary.
The ‘whole-of-world’ report in 5(?) years time will make for sobering reading.
Many thanks. I’ve seen snippets of this information elsewhere but not such wide-ranging summary.
The ‘whole-of-world’ report in 5(?) years time will make for sobering reading.
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layman,
Never happen sorry. From Our World in Data -
"Excess mortality is unfortunately available for very few countries, and because the required data from previous years is lacking this will continue to be the case. When the goal is to monitor a global pandemic then this is a major limitation of this metric."
Never happen sorry. From Our World in Data -
"Excess mortality is unfortunately available for very few countries, and because the required data from previous years is lacking this will continue to be the case. When the goal is to monitor a global pandemic then this is a major limitation of this metric."
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Re: New York this is a good article.
https://nypost.com/2020/07/10/herd-i...-cases-doctor/
they acknowledge that herd immunity was not a player but the city is now dealing with it to some extent through people’s changed behaviours.
NY deaths... case numbers paint a similar trend...
Before you shoot me down- no I don’t think we should “let it rip” but I have grave concerns for our kids economic future should we decide to do another 59 lockdowns on the off chance a vaccine is successful.
Strong people I know who have never had mental health issues are feeling the pinch with no direction from the government other than to go in to hiding for the foreseeable future.
https://nypost.com/2020/07/10/herd-i...-cases-doctor/
they acknowledge that herd immunity was not a player but the city is now dealing with it to some extent through people’s changed behaviours.
NY deaths... case numbers paint a similar trend...
Before you shoot me down- no I don’t think we should “let it rip” but I have grave concerns for our kids economic future should we decide to do another 59 lockdowns on the off chance a vaccine is successful.
Strong people I know who have never had mental health issues are feeling the pinch with no direction from the government other than to go in to hiding for the foreseeable future.
currawong
Thanks ... my hope then becomes that even with limited data, the experts in epidemiology & statistics being able to develop ‘sensible’ analysis & suggestions for future directions.
Green.Dot
Health, economics & politics - what a wicked problem the world is (we are!) dealing with.
Open up, infections grow, health system starts to struggle, business confidence declines.
Lock down & infections decline, health systems take a breather, but business activity (& jobs) also decline.
Lots of pain for lots of people whichever direction is taken.
Thanks ... my hope then becomes that even with limited data, the experts in epidemiology & statistics being able to develop ‘sensible’ analysis & suggestions for future directions.
Green.Dot
Health, economics & politics - what a wicked problem the world is (we are!) dealing with.
Open up, infections grow, health system starts to struggle, business confidence declines.
Lock down & infections decline, health systems take a breather, but business activity (& jobs) also decline.
Lots of pain for lots of people whichever direction is taken.
Last edited by layman; 14th Jul 2020 at 03:45.
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The thrust of this thread has aged like prawns in the summer sun.
The Victorian experience highlights how quickly this can get away and how the barriers go back up again..
The Victorian experience highlights how quickly this can get away and how the barriers go back up again..
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So much for closing the VIC/NSW border. A little cluster or spot fire has jumped the fence to Liverpool/Campbelltown.
What might that mean? Lockdown 1 failed because we are now into week 1 of 6 of lockdown 2. Wether we go stage 3 or
rumour has it stage 4 tomorrow, Dan's government has 5 weeks to flatten the curve again. May well he do that.
Everything opens up again like a flower, and it just needs another indiscretion, numbers go up again. Lockdown 2 failed.
A lockdown 3 is economically out of the question. The people will have a say on that. Only one way to go.
What might that mean? Lockdown 1 failed because we are now into week 1 of 6 of lockdown 2. Wether we go stage 3 or
rumour has it stage 4 tomorrow, Dan's government has 5 weeks to flatten the curve again. May well he do that.
Everything opens up again like a flower, and it just needs another indiscretion, numbers go up again. Lockdown 2 failed.
A lockdown 3 is economically out of the question. The people will have a say on that. Only one way to go.
Well I agree, lockdown has failed. Gladys was doing a great job until closing the border, that should of been instant only allowing resident to return to home but she gave notice and every COVID carrier and their dog was allowed to race across.
QLD will close to NSW by weeks end SA extending their close to NSW/ACT now Aviation and many other industry’s face a very different outlook.
QLD will close to NSW by weeks end SA extending their close to NSW/ACT now Aviation and many other industry’s face a very different outlook.
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Interesting few days ahead.
Until your wife, your child your mother or father dies from it. Then you still happy with herd immunity which is going just great in Sweden....
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They are finding blood clots in many recovered patients. Herd Immunity’s days have long sailed.
Could every recovered person suffer medium to long term ramifications? Nobody knows, I sure wouldn’t want to be apart of that experiment.
Top Global doctors are still saying there just is not enough data on the virus yet and what it does to the body. It’s no Influenza.
Could every recovered person suffer medium to long term ramifications? Nobody knows, I sure wouldn’t want to be apart of that experiment.
Top Global doctors are still saying there just is not enough data on the virus yet and what it does to the body. It’s no Influenza.
Is like the statement of Covid and airline passenger never been infected in flight - sounds good for an argument, but utter rubbish in reality.
Just not the data around for either statement to be proven or disproved.
$10 a pax has contracted Covid - 19 on a flight, and 5 cents herd immunity is the answer is my current bet.
Anyone remember the original intention of ‘flatten the curve’??
With the new outbreaks in Victoria it’s worth asking ‘the viewers at home’...
What is Australia’s strategy with COVID??
To be honest I’m not sure if it’s eradication or suppression.....
Once upon a time the ‘flatten the curve’ campaign was followed by messages from various politicians about giving the health system time to prepare and reduce the pressure on ICU beds.
I remember reading back when the cases dropped off that Victoria alone had created (or planned) 4000 new ICU beds to cope with the predicted outbreak. What happened to all those beds?
How many of you know that the Australian government has restricted international arrivals to 4,175 people per week?? TOTAL!! To bad if you’re an Australian citizen who needs to go home for various reasons that have nothing whatsoever to do with ‘swanning around on holiday’...
Meanwhile in the many other parts of the world people are trying to get on with life the best they can.
Bouncing between hard lockdowns and easing off and back again will destroy any economy Australia has left. Some sort of middle ground has to be found. Masks on, social distancing, build more ICU beds and PROPERLY isolate the vulnerable (especially in nursing homes etc).
The various state governments need to start building the view that there will be cases within the community. What we have now is this huge fear of ANY cases. There needs to be a proactive look at what limits the spread of the virus while still allowing as many people as possible to go about their day. A lockdown is not the answer.
If a vaccine is really the answer, that’s 18 months or more away. Until then is the Australian population going to accept continued lockdowns for the inevitable out breaks? Are various industries going to survive with the international borders effectively closed? Will domestic tourism survive with the various state border closures? Will Qantas, VA MK2 or any other airline survive such a long period of uncertainty?
What is Australia’s strategy with COVID??
To be honest I’m not sure if it’s eradication or suppression.....
Once upon a time the ‘flatten the curve’ campaign was followed by messages from various politicians about giving the health system time to prepare and reduce the pressure on ICU beds.
I remember reading back when the cases dropped off that Victoria alone had created (or planned) 4000 new ICU beds to cope with the predicted outbreak. What happened to all those beds?
How many of you know that the Australian government has restricted international arrivals to 4,175 people per week?? TOTAL!! To bad if you’re an Australian citizen who needs to go home for various reasons that have nothing whatsoever to do with ‘swanning around on holiday’...
Meanwhile in the many other parts of the world people are trying to get on with life the best they can.
Bouncing between hard lockdowns and easing off and back again will destroy any economy Australia has left. Some sort of middle ground has to be found. Masks on, social distancing, build more ICU beds and PROPERLY isolate the vulnerable (especially in nursing homes etc).
The various state governments need to start building the view that there will be cases within the community. What we have now is this huge fear of ANY cases. There needs to be a proactive look at what limits the spread of the virus while still allowing as many people as possible to go about their day. A lockdown is not the answer.
If a vaccine is really the answer, that’s 18 months or more away. Until then is the Australian population going to accept continued lockdowns for the inevitable out breaks? Are various industries going to survive with the international borders effectively closed? Will domestic tourism survive with the various state border closures? Will Qantas, VA MK2 or any other airline survive such a long period of uncertainty?
The read was the ICU beds were like going from economy to premium economy - far short of business or first classes.
My guess is they will not want to try the reserve ICU beds as they can not afford another enquiry.
On herd immunity: By now we should have all read that recent studies show that detectable antibodies in recovered patients diminish rapidly in just a few months, Immune responses are more complex than that however, and there don’t seem to be any peer-reviewed studies on T-cell response over time. The herd immunity theory of slowing Covid-19’s spread sounds good in theory, but as yet there are no facts in evidence that it is effective or long-lasting.
The Swedish laissez-faire model has resulted in a higher per-capita death rate with exactly the same economic damage compared to its Scandinavian peers. There is obviously lots of short term pain on that road with an uncertain and unquantifiable reward.
https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-...mage-1.4300102
The Swedish laissez-faire model has resulted in a higher per-capita death rate with exactly the same economic damage compared to its Scandinavian peers. There is obviously lots of short term pain on that road with an uncertain and unquantifiable reward.
https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-...mage-1.4300102
Last edited by Australopithecus; 14th Jul 2020 at 22:51. Reason: Clarity