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Air NZ pilot redundancies

Old 7th Apr 2020, 07:17
  #21 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by B772 View Post
Any redundancies forecast at QF ?
As far as Iím aware and what our chief pilot told us, there are no planned pilot redundancies at QF at this stage. There is enough cashflow to weather this storm for up to a year however things do change so who knows.
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Old 7th Apr 2020, 07:29
  #22 (permalink)  
 
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QF are more focused on eliminating its competitor at the moment, so when that plan fails then the axe will fall. He will no doubt use whatever bailout Virgin gets as a excuse to lay-off his employees. If Mr Singapore bailed it out then he would say zilch.

As he is on some form of revenge path with Virgin at the moment, he will probably take out revenge on JQ pilots for causing him grief last year and putting his raft of incentive schemes at risk. Step 1 is stab a knife in JB and what he built, Step 2 is going after those pesky JQ pilots. The bloke has no limits.
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Old 7th Apr 2020, 07:53
  #23 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by 73qanda View Post
Why donít they give the pilots the option of indefinite LWOP? Wouldnít that be a win for both parties? Or does the accrual of sick leave make that more expensive than redundancy?
The 387 number is not redundancies off the bottom of the list, it is the reduction in pilot numbers required, so LWOP, part time, voluntary severance, etc, are all yet to come into play. This is an initial number, a starting point for unions to work with.
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Old 7th Apr 2020, 07:55
  #24 (permalink)  
 
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Let Air NZ have this thread. QF have enough threads without hijacking this with speculation. All the best.
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Old 7th Apr 2020, 07:55
  #25 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ollie Onion View Post
To be honest, if you can get a redundancy payout and then retain your seniority with future jobs being offered to redundant pilots in order then that would be a better outcome financially for quite a few pilots as opposed to just an endless period of LWOP. I just feel sorry for all of us who through no fault of our own or our companies have potentially seen our flying careers knocked on the head. So many mates who have lost and are losing jobs with many, including myself, just waiting for the axe to fall.
I'd say the Jury is still out on LWOP vs Redundancy.

To be re-hired after Redundancy you need to be Current (at the moment)... not easily done when there's not going to be any Jobs anytime soon. Would also be extremely difficult to self fund currency after taking a massive drop in pay with whatever Job you can find outside of Flying.
If you are Re-Hired, all your service benefits get reset, including starting back again on Year 1 pay. Some of the more Senior Pilots facing the Axe will be on years 5-6 Pay, so potentially would be on Year 8 (SO/FO Cap) when re-hired if they take LWOP.

Of course, as the Contracts written, LWOP is not a choice. As Redundancy is Last on First off, a Pilot who opts for LWOP could still be made redundant so we're awaiting word from the Unions and the Company if Redundant Pilots will be offered the choice of LWOP instead, and what the conditions of both are in terms of re-employment.

Sadly, one of the biggest consequences are those who hold Jet Positions with Seniority below Regional Pilots on LWOP. A Regional Pilot who is "made redundant" from the Jet Fleet will retain their ATR/Q300 Command due to their high Link Seniority. When it comes to Re-Hiring, however, last off first on applies so Jet Pilots below the 110 or so Tag & Release Pilots could be waiting a very very long time to get their Jobs back. I doubt a Redundancy situation, let alone one of this scale, was considered when Tag & Release was signed off on. Not to be down on the Tag & Release Pilots, it's not their fault things played out this way, but they've at least still got Jobs.

In terms of Raw numbers, 387 off the bottom leaves us with 822 Pilots. A320 Commands start around 750, but there's a lot of Senior SO's between 822 & 750 so there will be very few remaining A320 FO's.
The 387 Number came with a disclaimer that it's the starting point. The Company simply forecast a schedule for next year and said "At Optimal IP (flying hours)" they need 387 less Pilots. Optimal, I believe, is around 75 hour Rosters. Redundancies can only occur when Average hours drop below 60, and can only be applied to bring the average back above 60, not to a 75 "optimum".
Retirements will also factor into the number off the bottom as will Voluntary Severance or other voluntary measures. The more off the top, the less off the bottom.
Lastly, the logistics of re-shuffling the remaining Pilots also needs to be accounted for... that's an awful lot of seat changes filtering from the Top to the Bottom.

So the message is, panic slowly. 387 is simply a number generated by the forecasting models. How that number is practically achieved, and how many are actually let go off the bottom is yet to be determined. All things considered, the number of Redundancies should be less than 387. That's not to say however, there isn't a second wave farther down the track. A lot of assumptions are being made around the future of International travel.
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Old 7th Apr 2020, 08:25
  #26 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ElZilcho View Post
I'd say the Jury is still out on LWOP vs Redundancy.

To be re-hired after Redundancy you need to be Current (at the moment)... not easily done when there's not going to be any Jobs anytime soon. Would also be extremely difficult to self fund currency after taking a massive drop in pay with whatever Job you can find outside of Flying.
If you are Re-Hired, all your service benefits get reset, including starting back again on Year 1 pay. Some of the more Senior Pilots facing the Axe will be on years 5-6 Pay, so potentially would be on Year 8 (SO/FO Cap) when re-hired if they take LWOP.

Of course, as the Contracts written, LWOP is not a choice. As Redundancy is Last on First off, a Pilot who opts for LWOP could still be made redundant so we're awaiting word from the Unions and the Company if Redundant Pilots will be offered the choice of LWOP instead, and what the conditions of both are in terms of re-employment.

Sadly, one of the biggest consequences are those who hold Jet Positions with Seniority below Regional Pilots on LWOP. A Regional Pilot who is "made redundant" from the Jet Fleet will retain their ATR/Q300 Command due to their high Link Seniority. When it comes to Re-Hiring, however, last off first on applies so Jet Pilots below the 110 or so Tag & Release Pilots could be waiting a very very long time to get their Jobs back. I doubt a Redundancy situation, let alone one of this scale, was considered when Tag & Release was signed off on. Not to be down on the Tag & Release Pilots, it's not their fault things played out this way, but they've at least still got Jobs.

In terms of Raw numbers, 387 off the bottom leaves us with 822 Pilots. A320 Commands start around 750, but there's a lot of Senior SO's between 822 & 750 so there will be very few remaining A320 FO's.
The 387 Number came with a disclaimer that it's the starting point. The Company simply forecast a schedule for next year and said "At Optimal IP (flying hours)" they need 387 less Pilots. Optimal, I believe, is around 75 hour Rosters. Redundancies can only occur when Average hours drop below 60, and can only be applied to bring the average back above 60, not to a 75 "optimum".
Retirements will also factor into the number off the bottom as will Voluntary Severance or other voluntary measures. The more off the top, the less off the bottom.
Lastly, the logistics of re-shuffling the remaining Pilots also needs to be accounted for... that's an awful lot of seat changes filtering from the Top to the Bottom.

So the message is, panic slowly. 387 is simply a number generated by the forecasting models. How that number is practically achieved, and how many are actually let go off the bottom is yet to be determined. All things considered, the number of Redundancies should be less than 387. That's not to say however, there isn't a second wave farther down the track. A lot of assumptions are being made around the future of International travel.
Thank you for your insights. Earlier people had mentioned the possible demise of the 777-200 fleet, and whether or not those crew would be 'low hanging fruit', which would be sad.

As also has been said, these losses are from the jet fleet, so similar numbers could eventuate from the regional side (where I have several friends). I also know a couple of 20 somethings trying to get their first real job. They're pretty stuffed in the short term
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Old 7th Apr 2020, 08:44
  #27 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ElZilcho View Post
Sadly, one of the biggest consequences are those who hold Jet Positions with Seniority below Regional Pilots on LWOP. A Regional Pilot who is "made redundant" from the Jet Fleet will retain their ATR/Q300 Command due to their high Link Seniority. When it comes to Re-Hiring, however, last off first on applies so Jet Pilots below the 110 or so Tag & Release Pilots could be waiting a very very long time to get their Jobs back. I doubt a Redundancy situation, let alone one of this scale, was considered when Tag & Release was signed off on. Not to be down on the Tag & Release Pilots, it's not their fault things played out this way, but they've at least still got Jobs.
Surely a lot of those regional pilots will be reluctant to go to the jets and give up their regional seniority after all this in case it happens again.
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Old 7th Apr 2020, 08:45
  #28 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Anti Skid On View Post
Thank you for your insights. Earlier people had mentioned the possible demise of the 777-200 fleet, and whether or not those crew would be 'low hanging fruit', which would be sad.

As also has been said, these losses are from the jet fleet, so similar numbers could eventuate from the regional side (where I have several friends). I also know a couple of 20 somethings trying to get their first real job. They're pretty stuffed in the short term
There's no mechanism in our CEA to make Pilots Redundant by Fleet, only by Seniority. That being said, the -200's days are probably numbered. Prior to COVID, they were due to be replaced from around 2022 with GenX 787's. I'm not privy to lease conditions and how easily they could exit them early so can't say for certain, but the ones we own could possibly be sold to leasing companies for a few bucks. Transition between the Boeing Fleets is a short course so it's much easier than down-training to the Airbus.

Honestly, the 20 year olds who haven't started their flying careers are the lucky ones. No kids, no mortgages, young enough to retrain in a new field... don't get me wrong, I love Flying, in many ways it defines me. But having been on the wrong end of 911/Ansett, the GFC and now (potentially) COVID-19, I'm wondering if perhaps I should of taken the hint 20 years ago and done something else.

As for the Regional Guys, I doubt they're going to take too much of a hit from this. To my knowledge, they've been short on crew for years which will give them some breathing space, and with no international flying to worry about, they'll likely resume close to their full schedule by the end of the year, just with less Pax.

Originally Posted by mark247 View Post
Surely a lot of those regional pilots will be reluctant to go to the jets and give up their regional seniority after all this in case it happens again.
Possibly Senior Link Pilots might think twice about it, seeing their mates who resigned from the Regionals 6 months ago lose their jobs, but then again, those who catch the post COVID wave early will likely rise above the next downturn quite quickly.
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Old 7th Apr 2020, 13:41
  #29 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ElZilcho View Post
Honestly, the 20 year olds who haven't started their flying careers are the lucky ones. No kids, no mortgages, young enough to retrain in a new field... don't get me wrong, I love Flying, in many ways it defines me. But having been on the wrong end of 911/Ansett, the GFC and now (potentially) COVID-19, I'm wondering if perhaps I should of taken the hint 20 years ago and done something else.
My heart goes out to you all. You will get through this and come out stronger. Just have to ride it out until it blows over. What options do you guys have?
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Old 8th Apr 2020, 02:12
  #30 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ElZilcho View Post
I'd say the Jury is still out on LWOP vs Redundancy.

To be re-hired after Redundancy you need to be Current (at the moment)...
Which clause in the CEA says that?
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Old 8th Apr 2020, 02:22
  #31 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by wheels_down View Post
... but I donít think we will be at 2019 fleet/pilot numbers until the next decade.
Sorry? Say again? You don't think we'll be back here until 2030 - is that your contention?
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Old 8th Apr 2020, 02:23
  #32 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by RubberDogPoop View Post
Which clause in the CEA says that?
19.7.3(C)

Basically, you need a CPL with Current IR.
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Old 8th Apr 2020, 03:05
  #33 (permalink)  
 
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Now that's gonna be expensive!
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Old 8th Apr 2020, 08:21
  #34 (permalink)  
 
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Has my old buddy, long time no see, Craig Forster still got a job?
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Old 8th Apr 2020, 09:07
  #35 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ElZilcho View Post
19.7.3(C)

Basically, you need a CPL with Current IR.
Given the circumstances, the company help with that...
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Old 8th Apr 2020, 10:00
  #36 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by RubberDogPoop View Post
Given the circumstances, the company help with that...
I would hope so, but that's not how the Contracts written... of course, I doubt the CEA was written with such a large scale redundancy in mind so I would expect a few agreements around Redundancy, LWOP & Re-Employment will be made.
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Old 8th Apr 2020, 10:11
  #37 (permalink)  
 
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On my side of the ditch, any re-employment (or re-introduction following extensive non-flying leave such as LWOP or long-term sick leave) would require a few simulator sessions including one which would re-validate the IR.

There is no practical reason for any requirement to maintain IR currency in this situation. There may be ill-founded HR reasons.

I don’t know if it’s different in NZ, or ANZ.
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Old 8th Apr 2020, 23:22
  #38 (permalink)  
 
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How much sim training would be required for a 777 pilot down - grading to a 787?
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Old 8th Apr 2020, 23:35
  #39 (permalink)  
 
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Probably germane to this discussion:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/...mestic-airline

"Air New Zealand has said it is planning to be a domestic airline, with limited international services for the foreseeable future. But with potentially a third of the workforce being laid off, and future domestic demand running at 1 per cent — it begs the question: what kind of domestic airline will Air New Zealand be?"
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Old 8th Apr 2020, 23:42
  #40 (permalink)  
 
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I think unless the govt starts subsidising air travel in NZ over the next few years, Air NZ and other local airlines will not survive. This will have to happen in addition to the 2 year loan which was negotiated. It’s essential for the future of New Zealand’s economy
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