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GT says fatal 737 MAX crashes caused by 'incompetent crew.'

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GT says fatal 737 MAX crashes caused by 'incompetent crew.'

Old 27th Jan 2020, 06:16
  #121 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by 172510
How much experience do you think is required to be able to figure out that disconnecting the elec stab trim and using manual trim is the thing to do in case of trim runaway, failed or locked? Believe it or not, I knew that even before my first type rating.
172510 and ACMS, you guys need to read your accident reports more carefully.

It was not as simple as just applying the stab trim cutout then winding the trim manually back to neutral or wherever. The fact that MCAS had so much authority (multiples of what they had told the FAA) meant that by the time the pilots realised what was going on and applied the correct procedure, the amount of mis-trim was substantial. This then exposed what was an unappreciated flaw in the B737 stab trim operation: that it can be difficult if not impossible to operate manually if there is significant pressure on it. Relaxing the back pressure with the nose pointing at he ground would take great courage I'm sure. This would have been the case for the Ethiopian crew and explains why they restored the stab trim cut out switches in an effort to get back some control of the stab. Grasping at straws for sure but understandable.
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Old 27th Jan 2020, 08:15
  #122 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by retired guy
...snipped...
Another slant
The sample rate for Max is very small outside USA. So percentage crash rates are not comparable. How did the USA rate compare? What was the max accident rate per million USA departures where most of The flying took place?...
You must be joking retired guy. I don't know how you based your statistics. Do you know that nearly 75% of DELIVERED AND IN-SERVICE Boeing 737 Max 8 [B38M] is being operated outside the US [and Canada]?? I'm sure you miss that fact; otherwise, you won't be making your statement.

Boeing 737 Max 8 [B38M] in service in North America [see here]:
American Airlines - 24
United Airlines - 14
Southwest Airlines - 34
Air Canada - 24
Sunwing - 4
Westjet - 13

Total B38M operational in US and Canada: 113
Total B38M operational worldwide:
423

I guess you don't have to be a math genius to figure out that ONLY ABOUT 26% [113/423] of B38M is operational in US and Canada. So, THE AIRLINES FROM THE REST OF THE WORLD STATISTICALLY KNOW THE ERRATIC/ABNORMAL BEHAVIOR OF B38M BETTER THAN ONES IN THE US [plus CANADA].

And, let me show you one "MIND BOGGLING" statistic from THE "FIRST" and "MOST EXPERIENCED" B38M crews in the universe: the Lion Air Group. Yes. It's the first and very fortunate airline to experience Boeing's cut-corner-for-profit-and-to-hell-with-safety mentality.

This is from the FINAL Accident Report of Lion Air PK-LQP:

Does it look "normal" to you? If you do, take a look again at the numbers because this airplane PK-LQP had only been in service from 13th August 2018 to 29th October 2018 [only 75 days!!]. Around ~900 hours / ~450 cycles in just 75 DAYS !! Guess what. Lion Air utilizes virtually every single plane it has the same way. Lion air seems to have played the dice called Boeing 737 Max 8. Unfortunately, unbeknownst to them, they had played with a flawed and deadly dice, and the consequence had been disastrously fatal- 189 people perished.

I think you finally realize that all airlines in the world are unwittingly played the game of "Russian Roulette" created by Boeing and its cohorts, and, unfortunately, the odds are EXPONENTIALLY HIGHER for the owners of 74% of ALL Boeing 737 Max 8 in operation worldwide [excluding the US/Canada] to face some major catastrophes. And, while looking at that number and that big utilization numbers by Lion Air, I won't be that surprised if in reality 80-90% of historical B38M utilization had been performed by airlines outside the US and Canada.

And, you've asked...
Originally Posted by retired guy
...snipped...
How did the USA rate compare?
For B38M? Sorry retired guy. NO CONTEST. But, if for some reason the FAA would let "the new and improved" B38M to only fly in North America... Well...
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Old 27th Jan 2020, 09:05
  #123 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dr dre
Maybe we should throw GT, or any other hero here who wants to blame a crew who canít defend themselves anymore, into the sim and recreate the conditions those pilots (Iím thinking more ET) experienced, and see if any of these heroes have the physical strength to physically pitch the aircraft up when the stab has trimmed so far nose down.

After having seen some videos where crews in a sim were presented with similar conditions and struggled to maintain control it would be difficult, even for experienced crews with prior knowledge of what was going to happened as opposed to a crew who was presented with a surprise event that didnít match any of their prior training.
I believe one mainstream carrier who did this found that some of their crews, notably well-skilled and fully aware of the issues, still managed to lose the aircraft in the exercise first time round.
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Old 27th Jan 2020, 10:37
  #124 (permalink)  
 
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Patplan
Thanks a lot for that breakdown of utilization.
yes, if your figures are correct, I was completely wrong and thought that there were more in USA.
So that rendered that part of my piece incorrect. Itís what makes PPRuNe so good. You donít get away with dbad info for too long. As long as we are not afraid of posting what we believe, take some trouble to ensure itís not just a rant, and accept that others may disagree I havenít found a better forum than this one.
Tail between legs, I will now have to spend today rethinking that part of this very complex saga! Thanks to you.
R Guy
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Old 27th Jan 2020, 10:44
  #125 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by MickG0105
In fact, the sample rate for the MAX is very small in the US.

You seem to be under the impression that most of the MAX fleet is in the US. It's not. Out of 387 MAXs delivered only 76 are registered in the US, 69 of those shared between American, United and Southwest. There are more MAXs in China than the US. The overwhelming majority of the MAXs delivered are flown outside of the US.
Yes Mick
got that completely wrong so thanks a lot for putting me right.
This forum is for speaking up, yes, but also for learning, listening and humility to admit when someone else has it right....!
Humbly
R Guy
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Old 27th Jan 2020, 11:40
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Related to the current debate about the accident rate for the. MAX by region, over the last ten years this slide seems to paint some sort of picture. I know the sample rate is low these days so one crash among few can skew the stats. For example a really poor startup somewhere with maybe 30 planes might be fatality free after 5 years and would look really good, while incubating a very poor future. A really good airline with 40 years fatality free and with a generally excellent safety focus and organisation with good training can be unlucky. I am not picking out this next airline as necessarily fitting those criteria but they are close and it illustrates the point. ---- BA 777 LHR at LHR for example nearly killed more people than any crash in history - if the engines had failed over London 5 minutes earlier. We all need a bit of luck as well as first class pilots, training, engineering and corporate/regulatory safety culture.
The left two columns are region. The right two are the airlines.
Excluding small accidents. No Military or Freighters. No Hot Air Baloons. Just scheduled passenger planes with major accidents
Ignore the yellow highlight. Not relevant.
R Guy


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Old 27th Jan 2020, 12:32
  #127 (permalink)  
 
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Relaxing the back pressure with the nose pointing at the ground would take great courage I'm sure. This would have been the case for the Ethiopian crew and explains why they restored the stab trim cut out switches in an effort to get back some control of the stab. Grasping at straws for sure but understandable.
Read Post 66. In the Roller Coaster method described in early Boeing 737 Pilot Training Manuals, relaxing the back pressure is carried out with the nose held well above the horizon. Not while in a dive..
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Old 27th Jan 2020, 13:33
  #128 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by retired guy
For example a really poor startup somewhere with maybe 30 planes....
That's a lot of aircraft...

But I'm a bit unsure what you meant? If Lion Air has a bad reputation, then yes... But taking every single pilot from the company, and putting into the same bucket, is not fair. And I'm sure Lion Air is/has been working hard on the issues... but you can never blame them for something they had no idea in their wildest dreams would be comming their way.

Though I agree pilots could use more "on hands" time, I'm not sure that is even doable in modern aircraft, they're very much automated, and that goes even for Boeing.... Airbus has just taken the step fully, and re-done how you control an aircraft completely.... which works fine (until you pull that fuse).
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Old 27th Jan 2020, 17:38
  #129 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by jmmoric
That's a lot of aircraft...

But I'm a bit unsure what you meant? If Lion Air has a bad reputation, then yes... But taking every single pilot from the company, and putting into the same bucket, is not fair. And I'm sure Lion Air is/has been working hard on the issues... but you can never blame them for something they had no idea in their wildest dreams would be comming their way.

Though I agree pilots could use more "on hands" time, I'm not sure that is even doable in modern aircraft, they're very much automated, and that goes even for Boeing.... Airbus has just taken the step fully, and re-done how you control an aircraft completely.... which works fine (until you pull that fuse).
Hi jmmoric
No I wasnít referring to Lionair. Just about how stats can be misleading. New airlines can seem great but you canít tell from a small fleet over a short time. Older airlines with great decades of safe flying can become complacent. Things change. Then even luck can come into it as per BA 777 LHR on the grass. 40 odd years of great safety. Great skill in the circumstances. But ten miles earlier it could have been very different over central London.
Another stat that gets missed is how many total or near hull losses were there. With no fatalities. That is a massive warning sign. I can think of a few right now.

Your second point is of course now at the epicenter of the automation argument. Do we train to still retain basic stick and rudder ďin caseĒ, or do we say the automatics can handle most things better than humans? And is there an in between where the automatics do most of it with a bit of pilot intervention (takeoff and windy landings at the moment). But does this give our pilot enough practice when itís needed?
good subject this.
I am in stick an rudder camp but my name gives that away!R Guy

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Old 27th Jan 2020, 17:43
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Originally Posted by Centaurus

Read Post 66. In the Roller Coaster method described in early Boeing 737 Pilot Training Manuals, relaxing the back pressure is carried out with the nose held well above the horizon. Not while in a dive..
I still have my 707 manual and I think that image was an idealized concept. Nice level plane all out of trim nose down. Raise nose. Let go& Unload. Trim like crazy ANU for twenty seconds. But nose dropping all the time during unload period. But, your now more or less back in trim. Raise nose with elevator and finish manual trim. Iím not sure they meant you couldnít do it from a high or low pitch attitude?
R Guy
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Old 27th Jan 2020, 20:10
  #131 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by fdr
The Adam Air B734 accident was directly attributable to the crews actions following lack of knowledge and training
Agree about 90%. But you can't overlook WHY they had their heads under the dashboard in the first place.
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Old 27th Jan 2020, 20:54
  #132 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by retired guy
Yes Mick
got that completely wrong so thanks a lot for putting me right.
This forum is for speaking up, yes, but also for learning, listening and humility to admit when someone else has it right....!
Humbly
R Guy
RG, that's no problem at all, you're more than welcome. The 'most MAXs in the US' misconception is commonly held.

Salute to your gracious and mature acceptance of the correction. That's not all that common in this forum.
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Old 28th Jan 2020, 01:18
  #133 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by WingNut60
Agree about 90%. But you can't overlook WHY they had their heads under the dashboard in the first place.
Maintenance may indeed be a causal factor in that case, however would lay odds that no existing Boeing or Airbus will take kindly to turning off the AHRS/INS/ADIRU/ADIRS in flight in unstable conditions... Now if they had an ipad, iphone, android phone, then there are $0.99 apps that will give better info than you get from your stby AI, integrated or not.
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Old 28th Jan 2020, 05:06
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Originally Posted by lucille
It takes two hands to clap. Boeing were decidedly dodgy with their minimalist excuse for training. Likewise the operators of the two crashed MAXs were, shall we politely say, not known for their high standards of required minimum crew competence.

In my mind, the blame lies squarely with airline management across the world - they demand new generation aircraft that can be operated by cheap, minimally trained, dumbed down pilots. And that can be maintained by equally clueless and cheap engineers. Boeing (and Airbus) are merely meeting this demand. The travelling public may want low cost, but they donít realize the price theyíre really paying.
Agree 200%!
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Old 28th Jan 2020, 05:08
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Originally Posted by ACMS
True and my experience of the issue as well.
Spot on!!!
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Old 28th Jan 2020, 06:29
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Originally Posted by Angle of Attack
There has never ever been a Boeing jet that puts Stabilizer trim commands in remotely. This is the crux of the deal, in a Boeing you fly it and donít expect any computer inputs. Airbus fine thatís a given, but not in a Boeing. This is a big deal and especially as it uses one sensor a disaster in the making.
Uh, speed trim ring a bell?
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Old 28th Jan 2020, 06:39
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lucille?
It takes two hands to clap. Boeing were decidedly dodgy with their minimalist excuse for training. Likewise the operators of the two crashed MAXs were, shall we politely say, not known for their high standards of required minimum crew competence.

In my mind, the blame lies squarely with airline management across the world - they demand new generation aircraft that can be operated by cheap, minimally trained, dumbed down pilots. And that can be maintained by equally clueless and cheap engineers. Boeing (and Airbus) are merely meeting this demand. The travelling public may want low cost, but they don’t realize the price they’re really paying.


Yes, Boeing are meeting this demand - by designing, manufacturing and selling sub standard products that they represented as perfectly safe in the hands of your so called dumbed down pilots and engineers.

Boeing actively discouraged simulator training on the B737 Max! The dumbing down was greatest at Boeing Headquarters in Chicago!

As for Airbus, I wouldn’t compare them to Boeing.
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Old 28th Jan 2020, 06:43
  #138 (permalink)  
 
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As for Airbus, I wouldn’t compare them to Boeing.
Then talk to anybody who's converted from the A330 to the A350; ask how little they're told about what is a very different aeroplane.
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Old 28th Jan 2020, 07:11
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So Sunfish , your Check and Training experience on Boeing aircraft is what , precisely?
Or are you just making it up as you go along?
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Old 28th Jan 2020, 07:35
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Here's probably a better explanation as to how this whole mess came about: 737-Max
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