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Project Sunrise

Old 19th Sep 2019, 11:26
  #181 (permalink)  
 
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Hong Kong used to be the bees bees as usual anything associated with China turns to shit rather rapidly, enter at own risk!
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Old 20th Sep 2019, 04:20
  #182 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Chris2303 View Post
If I may be so bold - please don't link articles behind a paywall..........
My apologies.
I didn't realise.
Summary of main points:

Three flights over the next three months.
About a sixth the usual number of passengers and crew on board
Captain Lisa Norman in command
78 likely to use 40 per cent less fuel than historic 74
40 passengers and crew on what is private flight.
Qantas using the new cloud-based Constellation system, to analyse millions of pieces of data and recommend flight tracks.
Airline has a huge amount of information about the route from A380s.
Headwinds stronger coming out of JFK into LAX and then over the Pacific light and variable
Getting closer to Australia hits jetstream headwinds.
Running different routes to see what is the most optimised
Stay high track straight across US passing between San Francisco and Los Angeles and then cut down over Hawaii.
Or head as far south as New Mexico.
As everyone will be in biz class nose-heavy load affects pitch and increases fuel burn.
TOW 235 tonnes, 19 tonnes under MTOW.
Takeoff middle of next month - crew based in NYC for four days to acclimatise.
Melatonin and cognitive ability to be monitored.


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Old 20th Sep 2019, 04:41
  #183 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tartare View Post
My apologies.
I didn't realise.
Summary of main points:

Three flights over the next three months.
About a sixth the usual number of passengers and crew on board
Captain Lisa Norman in command
78 likely to use 40 per cent less fuel than historic 74
40 passengers and crew on what is private flight.
Qantas using the new cloud-based Constellation system, to analyse millions of pieces of data and recommend flight tracks.
Airline has a huge amount of information about the route from A380s.
Headwinds stronger coming out of JFK into LAX and then over the Pacific light and variable
Getting closer to Australia hits jetstream headwinds.
Running different routes to see what is the most optimised
Stay high track straight across US passing between San Francisco and Los Angeles and then cut down over Hawaii.
Or head as far south as New Mexico.
As everyone will be in biz class nose-heavy load affects pitch and increases fuel burn.
TOW 235 tonnes, 19 tonnes under MTOW.
Takeoff middle of next month - crew based in NYC for four days to acclimatise.
Melatonin and cognitive ability to be monitored.
Is that what is proposed as scientific proof?

Management pilot? Management crew? for three flights with 40 hand picked passengers..

Sounds like sufficient sampling with a sample size of three. Each event a month apart, with hand picked crew and passengers.
That ought satisfy an inept regulator that there is "real science" supporting long term health impacts.
If that is what the line crew fly, then fantastic, a month in New York is a real bonus.
40 passengers makes for superior and seamless service in all cabins.

/sarc

One might hope the cabin crew and pilot union reject out of hand the "data" it is unadulterated marketing BS.
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Old 20th Sep 2019, 05:06
  #184 (permalink)  
 
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Hammer nail and head.
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Old 20th Sep 2019, 06:21
  #185 (permalink)  
 
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Chief pilot in waiting flying?
totally legit study

Also

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Old 20th Sep 2019, 07:26
  #186 (permalink)  
 
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Yep, a litre of koolaid before descent should do the trick.."I feel great! I feel great!"..
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Old 20th Sep 2019, 08:49
  #187 (permalink)  
 
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No management pilots. A Fatigue group representative Captain on one, a normal line Captain on one and a AIPA rep the Captain on the other. The FO are all normal line pilots as are the SO’s. Fatigue monitoring for ten days before and after and reaction tests every 2 hours in flight. Yes it’s not a large data set but better than no data set.
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Old 20th Sep 2019, 08:52
  #188 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by engine out View Post
No management pilots. A Fatigue group representative Captain on one, a normal line Captain on one and a AIPA rep the Captain on the other. The FO are all normal line pilots as are the SO’s. Fatigue monitoring for ten days before and after and reaction tests every 2 hours in flight. Yes it’s not a large data set but better than no data set.
Nah a small irrelevant and easily manipulated data set is indeed worse than none.
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Old 20th Sep 2019, 09:39
  #189 (permalink)  
 
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The only way to run these is to preregister the the criteria end points prior to running the experiment. There is a large push for studies to do exactly this in modern science. A significant proportion of medical & psychological research has been found to be faulty even though poportially i gives the external appearance of going through a rigorous scientific process. It is all too easy to come to a conclusion after collecting and analysing the data.
The preregistration revolution

Abstract

Progress in science relies in part on generating hypotheses with existing observations and testing hypotheses with new observations. This distinction between postdiction and prediction is appreciated conceptually but is not respected in practice. Mistaking generation of postdictions with testing of predictions reduces the credibility of research findings. However, ordinary biases in human reasoning, such as hindsight bias, make it hard to avoid this mistake. An effective solution is to define the research questions and analysis plan before observing the research outcomes—a process called preregistration. Preregistration distinguishes analyses and outcomes that result from predictions from those that result from postdictions. A variety of practical strategies are available to make the best possible use of preregistration in circumstances that fall short of the ideal application, such as when the data are preexisting. Services are now available for preregistration across all disciplines, facilitating a rapid increase in the practice. Widespread adoption of preregistration will increase distinctiveness between hypothesis generation and hypothesis testing and will improve the credibility of research findings.
One psychologist has even gone to the extent of "proving" paranormal psychology using unimpeachable and rigorous science to make the point using standard scientific methods. He has passed every conventional scientific hurdle: THE CONTROL GROUP IS OUT OF CONTROL
Bem, Tressoldi, Rabeyron, and Duggan (2014), full text available for download at the top bar of the link above, is parapsychology’s way of saying “thanks but no thanks” to the idea of a more rigorous scientific paradigm making them quietly wither away.

You might remember Bem as the prestigious establishment psychologist who decided to try his hand at parapsychology and to his and everyone else’s surprise got positive results. Everyone had a lot of criticisms, some of which were very very good, and the study failed replication several times. Case closed, right?

Earlier this month Bem came back with a meta-analysis of ninety replications from tens of thousands of participants in thirty three laboratories in fourteen countries confirming his original finding, p < 1.2 * -1010, Bayes factor 7.4 * 109, funnel plot beautifully symmetrical, p-hacking curve nice and right-skewed, Orwin fail-safe n of 559, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
The bottom line in all this is science in the service of business, usually Medical & pharmaceutical, but not limited to these has let itself become a tool of generating desired outcomes. Science can be used to obtain the truth and for further human knowledge and progress. Unfortunately it can also be used for nefarious ends and become corrupt beyond belief. Many fancy and impressive reports and studies are just straight out wrong. Editors of both the Lancet and the New England Journal of Medicine have come out recently and said the following
Originally Posted by The Lancet
The case against science is straightforward: much of the scientific literature, perhaps half, may simply be untrue.
Originally Posted by Marcia Angell NEMJ Editor
Journal editors have expended much time and effort in teasing out how to handle authors' and reviewers' competing interests. They need now to concentrate on their own and those of their employers, lest we reach the dismal scenario described by Marcia Angell: “it is simply no longer possible to believe much of the clinical research that is published, or to rely on the judgment of trusted physicians or authoritative medical guidelines. I take no pleasure in this conclusion, which I reached slowly and reluctantly over my two decades as an editor of The New England Journal of Medicine
If you have a spare few hours, listen to Peter Attia interview with Katherine Eban on the widespread fraud in the Generic drug sector. Almost certainly all of us who consumed a potentially harmful non compliant medication if we have used a generic drug over the last 20 years. The generic drug company were masters at fooling the FDA with straight out data fraud. In the case of Ranbaxy, over 200 medications approved by the FDA entered the global supply chain based on totally bogus and data. This is a very disturbing story about just how corrupt science in the service of profit has become.

So no, I would not be putting much faith in the outcome of a minuscule sample size when the company with a vested interest in the outcome is paying the bill. If the study was preregistered and followed a larger cohort over a significant period of time with open raw data available I would have faith in the outcome.
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Old 20th Sep 2019, 09:56
  #190 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by engine out View Post
No management pilots. A Fatigue group representative Captain on one, a normal line Captain on one and a AIPA rep the Captain on the other. The FO are all normal line pilots as are the SO’s. Fatigue monitoring for ten days before and after and reaction tests every 2 hours in flight. Yes it’s not a large data set but better than no data set.
A little "data" is more dangerous than zero data.
If it is proposed that IF the "data" supports the fatigue profile, the union accepts this type of flying, then questions ought be asked about probity.
By all means conduct a study, but at least make it robust. The health and well being of union members depends on it.
Other stakeholders are far more skeptical.


From a statistical point of view obvious problems are many.
  1. Model is not representative of reality.
  2. Passenger load not commercial
  3. Flight profile not typical
  4. Pre and post "sample flight" duties are unknown. What about a situation where the company applies minimum turnaround, an additional duty or the like? This is conveniently excluded.
  5. Biased sampling.
  6. Insufficient observations (3)
  7. Interrogation of sickness and correlated association. Are those pilots/cabin crew who are seriously ill long haul or domestic? Does the union know this? The sick rates may already infer a problem exists.

No matter the argument, a study paid for by an employer, designed to ensure a commercial outcome is axiomatically likely to result in the outcome being pre-determined.

The first and most important rule of statistical model is unbiased sampling. Having achieved that, there must be sufficient observations, over sufficient time to draw meaningful inferences for the generalised form.

This rubbish does neither and is a thinly veiled commercial consultation.
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Old 20th Sep 2019, 10:28
  #191 (permalink)  
 
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Blah blah blah whine whine whine blah blah blab.....

We all know Bananananananaramramramaaa WILL happen regardless of what the precious ones at the pointy end type one here.

I am more concerned about only travelling in J on a sector this long!

Must day I’ve done SQ J, 17 hours, United Premium Economy 17.5 hours (empty row of 3), so 20+ hours would certainly want J. Also more concerned they will have enough premium beer and wine onboard for me!

Yes a shite stir but seriously... Are you flying the shuttle to the moon or mars???
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Old 20th Sep 2019, 11:03
  #192 (permalink)  
 
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No moon launch
theyre just trying to sell a pup (to casa)
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Old 20th Sep 2019, 11:04
  #193 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by maggot View Post
No moon launch
theyre just trying to sell a pup (to casa)
That is my point in a way. They will succeed. Honestly can not see how it possibly won’t???
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Old 20th Sep 2019, 11:19
  #194 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Global Aviator View Post
Blah blah blah whine whine whine blah blah blab.....

We all know Bananananananaramramramaaa WILL happen regardless of what the precious ones at the pointy end type one here.

I am more concerned about only travelling in J on a sector this long!

Must day I’ve done SQ J, 17 hours, United Premium Economy 17.5 hours (empty row of 3), so 20+ hours would certainly want J. Also more concerned they will have enough premium beer and wine onboard for me!

Yes a shite stir but seriously... Are you flying the shuttle to the moon or mars???
So Global Aviator, I will ask you again, are you with QF Management? Or just an Angel? Your post sound exactly like the fairy floss we read on the Friday Flyer, or one of motivational pieces from Tino or Andrew David.
You are obviously a pilot hater- like most of our management.
Have a serious look at the crap you are writing. Now look at it from a Duty of Care/ OHS angle. Do you think ULH is a joke? Do you think repeated sleep interruption, dehydration,and sitting for extended hours is somehow good for your long term health? Why is the average retirement age trending southwards?
I seriously doubt Sunrise will happen- how risk adverse are CASA?- How will other regulators allow these ULH to operate in their airspace?- and QF management are again looking to blame everyone (read pilots) except themselves.
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Old 20th Sep 2019, 11:22
  #195 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by maggot View Post
No moon launch
theyre just trying to sell a pup (to casa)
Save you breath mate, we'll be blamed when they don't order it.

Last edited by Street garbage; 20th Sep 2019 at 11:42.
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Old 20th Sep 2019, 11:23
  #196 (permalink)  
 
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Is the 777-8 still in the competition? Hadn't Boeing put in on ice for the time being?
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Old 20th Sep 2019, 12:35
  #197 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Global Aviator View Post


That is my point in a way. They will succeed. Honestly can not see how it possibly won’t???
Yeah for sure but in what crew config? Or do you mean that it's a lock on our current crewing setup?

10 hours in the seat?
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Old 20th Sep 2019, 13:22
  #198 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Street garbage View Post
So Global Aviator, I will ask you again, are you with QF Management? Or just an Angel? Your post sound exactly like the fairy floss we read on the Friday Flyer, or one of motivational pieces from Tino or Andrew David.
You are obviously a pilot hater- like most of our management.
Have a serious look at the crap you are writing. Now look at it from a Duty of Care/ OHS angle. Do you think ULH is a joke? Do you think repeated sleep interruption, dehydration,and sitting for extended hours is somehow good for your long term health? Why is the average retirement age trending southwards?
I seriously doubt Sunrise will happen- how risk adverse are CASA?- How will other regulators allow these ULH to operate in their airspace?- and QF management are again looking to blame everyone (read pilots) except themselves.
If you had read my previous posts I am not a pilot hater, I am just pointing out the obvious. It will happen.

I have pointed out my concern to more than multiple crew ULH which is two pilot red eye, back of the clock flying. With shite rostering from earlies to lates to red eyes. This happens around the world day in night out.

EK do ULH and look at how they log duty time..... Not right in our eyes but it happens!

So as I’ve said I do stir the pot as I play devils advocate.

It is how it is because we allow management to get away with it!

Also as I’ve said how do SQ do the Newark ULH? They were some of the pioneers back in the A340, it worked. I have also pointed out that crew that did it generally did that only. The biggest issue they had was landing recency.

Aus - reinventing the wheel... again!





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Old 21st Sep 2019, 02:17
  #199 (permalink)  
 
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Old 21st Sep 2019, 02:33
  #200 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dragon man View Post
Or about to be..it was an AMAZING turnaround..who would have thunk?
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